For too long, Nigeria has acted as if economic decisions happen in a vacuum, driven only by markets and private calculus. That view is outdated. Every major investment, listing, and cross-border deal sits at the intersection of economics and politics. This is the core of political economics: markets do not operate outside of power, regulation, and national interest.
If Nigeria wants a functional socioeconomic system, our regulators must stop pretending otherwise. Two current cases prove it: OPay’s planned NYSE listing and MTN Nigeria’s sale of its fintech subsidiaries to MTN Group.
OPay and the Case for a Dual Listing
OPay is a Nigerian-rooted fintech built on Nigerian users, USSD infrastructure, CBN licenses, and the trust of millions of unbanked Nigerians. Yet it is preparing to list solely on the New York Stock Exchange, bypassing the Nigerian Exchange Limited entirely.
For OPay, this makes commercial sense. The NYSE offers deeper capital pools and higher valuations. For Nigeria, it is a loss. We lose capital market depth, tax revenue, and local ownership of a strategic asset built on Nigerian data and infrastructure. Worse, it signals to every other startup that Nigeria is a place to build, not a place to list.
The state is not a neutral referee. It can use regulatory leverage to ensure national interest is factored in. Nigeria does not need to block the NYSE listing or force HQ relocation. It should make clear that continued access to CBN licenses, USSD rails, and national data systems comes with an expectation: a dual listing or a firm commitment to list on NGX within 3-5 years.
Pair this with incentives — tax relief, reduced fees, a tech-friendly board on NGX — and you create a path that serves both firm and country. This is how India, China, and the US manage strategic firms. It is not coercion. It is good order.
MTN Nigeria and the Leverage of Regulatory Approval
The second case is MTN Nigeria’s plan to sell a 60% stake in its fintech subsidiaries to MTN Group. The deal requires regulatory approval in Nigeria.
Meanwhile, xenophobic attacks on Nigerians in South Africa persist. Many victims are legal migrants engaged in legitimate business. The South African government has a duty to protect them. Where it fails, Nigeria cannot act as if nothing has changed.
Nigeria allows MTN to operate profitably and repatriate earnings. That access is a privilege, not a right. There is nothing improper about using the approval process for this sale as leverage to push Pretoria to act. Delaying or attaching conditions would signal that Nigerian market access carries reciprocal responsibility.
This is not about nationalizing MTN or driving out South African investment. It is about reciprocity. Nigeria did the same in 1979 when it acquired BP’s stake in Shell-BP in retaliation for Britain selling crude to apartheid South Africa.
The Line Nigeria Must Walk
Intervene enough to protect national interest, but not so much that you destroy investor confidence. For OPay, that means anchoring a Nigerian success story in Nigerian capital markets. For MTN, it means using regulatory approval to protect Nigerians abroad.
Right now, the government appears passive on both fronts. That is a mistake. Markets do not correct themselves on capital flight, data sovereignty, or citizen protection. Political intervention is required.
Nigeria’s position should be clear: dual listing for OPay, conditional approval for MTN. Anything less is a surrender of economic and political agency.
Maduegbuna is chairman of C&F Porter Novelli, Strategic Communications Consultants
Dear Duke of Shomolu,
Your post was passionate, provocative, and predictably entertaining. But beneath the swagger, sarcasm, and chest-thumping bravado lies a deeply troubling argument—one that dismisses criticism, undervalues artistic dialogue, and risks shutting the door behind you after benefiting from the very ecosystem that helped build your name.
Let us be clear from the outset: disagreement with preview shows is your right. But contempt for critics, disdain for emerging voices, and the reduction of artistic feedback to “free show seekers” is not only unfair—it is intellectually lazy.
- Preview Shows Are Bigger Than Your Personal Convenience
A preview show is not charity. It is not a handout. It is not a conspiracy by broke intellectuals to watch theatre for free.
A preview is part of a long-standing professional tradition in global theatre practice. It serves as a laboratory—a final space where performance meets audience before official opening night. It allows producers, directors, actors, designers, marketers, and yes, critics, to test rhythm, pacing, audience response, technical flow, and public perception.
To reduce that process to “waste of time” simply because it does not suit your current model is to mistake personal preference for universal truth.
Your experience is valid. It is not absolute.
- Criticism Is Not an Attack
You describe critics as arrogant gatekeepers who know little and contribute less. Certainly, bad criticism exists. There are shallow reviewers in every industry. But bad criticism does not invalidate criticism itself.
By that logic, bad producers should invalidate production. Bad actors should invalidate acting. Bad scripts should invalidate writing.
Serious criticism is not about insulting artists. It is about contextualizing work, preserving standards, documenting growth, and challenging complacency. Theatre without criticism becomes applause without thought.
An artist who wants only praise does not seek excellence—he seeks worship.
- If Feedback Can “Topple Everything,” Then Something Is Already Broken
You argue that directors are sensitive and a wrong word can derail a production. With respect, if one comment can collapse months of work, then the issue is not criticism—it is fragility.
Professional artists must develop emotional discipline. Theatre is collaborative, public, and interpretive. Once a show enters the public square, it belongs not only to its creators but to its audience and the larger discourse around it.
Shielding creators from feedback does not strengthen them. It infantilizes them.
- Ticket Sales Are Not the Only Measure of Value
You repeatedly ask what critic has ever sold tickets. This is the wrong question.
Criticism is not merely a marketing tool. Its purpose is not to become your sales agent. It is to shape conversation, build archives, educate audiences, inspire students, preserve history, and refine taste.
Many works that failed commercially became culturally important because critics documented them. Many commercial successes vanished without trace because no one engaged them seriously.
Box office is important. It is not the sole measure of artistic worth.
- The Incoming Generation Needs More Than Ego and Gatekeeping
Perhaps the most disappointing part of your position is what it teaches younger practitioners:
• That questioning art is disrespectful
• That experience is beyond examination
• That money matters more than discourse
• That criticism is hostility
• That established figures owe nothing to the next generation
This is dangerous.
The younger generation needs mentorship, structure, honest feedback, and access to critical culture. They need to learn how to create work and how to defend it, revise it, debate it, and improve it.
If elders in the industry silence criticism, they do not protect theatre—they weaken its future.
- Confidence Does Not Need Contempt
There is nothing wrong with saying, “Preview shows are not part of my strategy.” That would have been a respectable position.
But to sneer at critics, mock engagement, and end with insults may win social media laughter, yet it contributes little to serious discourse.
Strength does not require scorn. Experience does not require arrogance. Success does not require hostility.
- A Final Word
Duke, no one is asking you to host a preview in your living room. No one is demanding free access to your labour. But please do not confuse your business choices with principles of theatre practice.
Theatre grows through rehearsal, performance, criticism, revision, documentation, and dialogue. Remove any of these, and the ecosystem shrinks.
You may reject preview shows. Fine.
But do not reject the culture of engagement that keeps the art form alive long after the curtain falls.
Because one day, the next generation will inherit this stage.
And they deserve more than “buy your ticket and keep quiet.”
They deserve a theatre culture mature enough to welcome both applause and critique.
Adeniran Makinde
DAILY NIGERIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (NFEM) RATES (₦/US$)
Moving Average = 1,388.9318 (NFEM)
Previous Average = 1373.7410
Change = -1.058%
Forex Analysis
Our FX moving average fell yet again, the 3rd week in a row. It was a rather volatile week for the naira, which by Mar 9th had spiked above ₦1,400/$ due to corporate demand, before easing back toward ₦1,376/$ as CBN interventions and dealer supply stabilized rates.
The parallel market remained consistently weaker than the official window, widening the gap to about ₦50–70 per dollar. Traders cited strong retail and import demand, with limited dollar supply from informal channels.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves remained at a 13‑year peak, cushioning volatility but not fully offsetting parallel market pressures.
Brent crude’s surge above $100/bbl improved Nigeria’s fiscal outlook, but FX inflows had not yet materialized, limiting immediate naira support.
Daily Crude Oil Prices
Moving Average = $89.13
Previous Average = $77.58
Change = +14.8879%
Crude Oil Analysis
Our Brent crude moving average rose by a whopping 15%. This is due in no small measure to escalating tensions in the Middle East between the US/Israel and Iran, as air strikes continue to disrupt production, while the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil tankers, remains closed.
OPEC+ seems determined to take advantage of the situation. It maintained strict quotas, refusing to raise output despite rising demand. This amplified the upward pressure on prices.
Meanwhile, Asian refiners (China, India) continued strong crude purchases, reinforcing physical demand.
NGX Top 10 Gainers for the week closing 13th Mar 2026
Stock Market Index Activity for the week closing 13th Mar 2026
Stock Market Index Analysis
Thirty-four (34) equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than forty-four (44) equities in the previous week. Sixty-one (61) equities depreciated in price, higher than fifty-eight (58) equities in the previous week, while fifty-three (53) equities remained unchanged, higher than forty-six (46) recorded in the previous week. This reflected a weaker market breadth compared to the prior week. This shift pointed to cautious investor sentiment despite strong oil prices and FX market interventions.
Energy and cement stocks led the rally, supported by oil prices and infrastructure demand. Insurance and industrials dragged the market lower, reflecting profit‑taking and cost pressures.
Overall, the market was cautious and selective, with investors balancing optimism from oil revenues against FX and inflation risks.
Fixed-Income Analysis
This week, Nigerian government securities reflected the interplay of strong oil prices, FX market pressures, and CBN’s liquidity management.
Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) auctions saw strong subscription, especially in short‑tenor bills. Marginal rates edged higher, around 17–18%, as investors demanded compensation for inflation and FX risk. NTB maturities injected naira liquidity, which the CBN later sterilized through OMO and CBN bills.
In FGN Bonds, no major new issuance during the week, but secondary trading was active. Long‑tenor bonds (10–20 years) remained relatively stable around 18–19%, supported by pension funds and institutional demand. The oil price rally improved fiscal outlook, encouraging confidence in sovereign debt sustainability.
CBN issued OMO bills aggressively to mop up excess liquidity from coupon payments and NTB maturities. Yields stayed elevated in the 20–22% range, designed to attract foreign portfolio inflows and reduce naira liquidity. The bills issued helped sterilize inflows but did not fully offset parallel market FX pressures.
CBN bills complemented OMO bills as another liquidity management tool. Yields remained at around 21–23%, reflecting inflation expectations and FX market risks.
Daily Bitcoin Prices
Moving Average = $68,629.43
Previous Average = $68,766
Change = -0.1986%
Bitcoin Analysis
Our Bitcoin average fell slightly, by about 0.2%. This week’s activity was shaped by technical consolidation, cautious investor sentiment, and global macro signals.
Traders who bought during the late‑February breakout above $68k took profits, leading to mild weekend weakness. Oil markets surged on U.S.–Iran tensions, but Bitcoin’s safe‑haven bid was muted, as investors prioritized commodities.
ETF inflows remained steady, but not aggressive enough to push Bitcoin higher. Weekend trading volumes were thinner, amplifying small sell‑offs.
Bitcoin hovered around the $68k pivot, with resistance near $70k and support around $66k. The sideways action reflected a market catching its breath after February’s rally.
Professional corporate finance and consulting services.
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By : Dr. Tope Fasoranti
The hostilities in the Gulf Region have delivered a classic terms-of-trade shock to Nigeria. Brent crude was trading at about $73 per barrel on the eve of the conflict. It moved above $84 within days, climbed into the low 90s by the end of the week, and on Monday, 9 March, surged above $117, briefly touching about $119.50 intraday. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about one-fifth of global oil and gas flows, has been severely disrupted. Attacks on major energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and Qatar have forced QatarEnergy to declare force majeure on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. JPMorgan has warned that Brent could reach $120 if disruption persists. For Nigeria, which exports crude but is not yet self-sufficient in refined petroleum products, the transmission channels of this shock run in opposite directions. The same event that lifts export earnings also drives up domestic fuel costs and inflationary pressure across the wider economy.
DEJA VU: A FILM NIGERIA HAS SEEN BEFORE
There is an unmistakable sense of deja vu about this moment. The oil shocks of 1973, 1979, and 1990, and the 2007 to 2008 commodity boom, all produced fiscal windfalls for Nigeria. Yet none translated into durable buffers or deep structural reform. Windfalls were largely spent rather than saved, and when prices eventually fell, the country was left exposed. That history should shape today’s response. Higher oil prices will help Nigeria in the short term. The real question is whether the country will finally use a temporary gain to reduce a permanent vulnerability.
THE UPSTREAM REVENUE GAIN
Nigeria’s 2026 federal budget is benchmarked at $64.85 per barrel, with a crude production assumption of 1.84 million barrels per day. With Brent now well above that benchmark, the fiscal effect is clearly positive. Even after allowing for production costs, royalties and joint venture obligations, the directional benefit to Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) allocations, federal account balances and foreign exchange inflows is real. CardinalStone Research has projected revenue growth of between 12.5 per cent and 57.2 per cent for Nigerian oil producers if average prices range from $70 to $100 per barrel across 2026. Nigerian crude grades, including Bonny Light, are priced off Brent, so a disruption thousands of miles away still lifts the reference price on every barrel Nigeria sells.
That said, the gain should not be overstated. Higher prices help, but Nigeria does not automatically capture the full gross uplift as fiscal revenue, especially if production remains below official targets. The net gain is real but narrower than the headline price movement suggests.
THE DOWNSTREAM PRICE TRANSMISSION
The pass-through to domestic retail prices has been rapid. Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised its ex-depot gantry price for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from N774 to N874 per litre on 2 March. By 8 March, the gantry price had risen again to N995 per litre. Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) retail outlets in Abuja moved to around N960 per litre, while pump prices at some stations moved above N1,000 per litre.
In a deregulated market, refiners and importers price on replacement cost and import parity, not on the historical cost of old inventory. That explains part of the speed of the adjustment. Even so, the concentration of supply in a small number of hands means the authorities cannot be indifferent to questions of market power. Deregulation works best when competition is credible. Without that, consumers can face the discipline of the market without the protections it offers.
According to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) for January 2026, Dangote supplied about 61.78 per cent of PMS consumed in Nigeria that month, while imports accounted for roughly 38.22 per cent. Nigeria is better positioned than a year earlier, but it is still not insulated from shocks in the international oil market.
FUEL QUEUES, PANIC BUYING AND SUPPLY ANXIETY
Reports from Nigeria’s downstream market indicate the re-emergence of fuel queues in some locations, especially where buyers expect another round of price increases. Some operators may be withholding supply in anticipation of higher replacement costs, though that would require regulatory verification. Supply anxiety is self-fulfilling: once consumers begin buying ahead of expected price hikes, queues lengthen, and the market tightens further.
That is why the NMDPRA needs to move quickly. Its role is not to reverse deregulation, but to ensure that the logistics chain is functioning properly and that scarcity is not being worsened by speculative behaviour at a moment when household budgets are already under pressure.
INFLATION, PRICE STABILITY AND THE CBN’S DILEMMA
The wider macroeconomic risk lies in inflation. Energy costs affect almost every part of Nigeria’s supply chain: transport, food distribution, cold-chain logistics, small-scale manufacturing and back-up power generation. A sharp rise in PMS and diesel prices feeds into the broader price level through cost-push inflation, compressing real incomes and weakening consumer demand.
This comes at a delicate time. Nigeria’s inflation picture had improved enough through 2025 to raise the prospect of a more measured monetary stance. A renewed fuel-price shock now complicates that path. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s Monetary Policy Committee faces a familiar problem: inflationary pressures from the supply side alongside weaker real activity. That is a stagflationary risk. In that setting, rate cuts become harder to justify, and it would be antithetical to price stability for fiscal authorities to compound matters by spending the windfall freely into the domestic economy. Nigeria’s net foreign exchange reserves rose to $34.8 billion by the end of 2025, while gross reserves reached $50.45 billion in February 2026. That stronger buffer is valuable, but it should be protected, not treated as an invitation to relax.
SAVE FOR THE PROVERBIAL RAINY DAY: THE CASE FOR COUNTERCYCLICAL BUFFERS
Nigeria is not without precedent here. The Excess Crude Account (ECA) was established in 2004 to save oil revenues above the budget benchmark. At its height, it accumulated close to $20 billion and provided an important cushion during the 2008 global financial crisis. But the account was gradually depleted amid political pressure and disputes over revenue sharing. By the time the next major oil-price downturn arrived, much of the buffer had already gone.
That history carries a direct lesson. Building countercyclical buffers from the present windfall will not happen by rhetoric alone. It will require genuine political consensus across the federation. Federal, state and local authorities need to accept that a portion of above-benchmark revenues should be set aside rather than immediately shared and spent. That is never easy in Nigeria’s fiscal politics. But without that discipline, the country will once again consume a temporary gain and preserve the underlying weakness.
THE GROWTH OUTLOOK
The net effect on Nigeria’s growth path depends on how long the conflict lasts and how the government responds. A short disruption would leave a temporary fiscal boost and a manageable, if painful, spell of higher fuel prices. A prolonged conflict would be more damaging. If Brent remains above $100 for months, higher fuel costs would sustain inflation, weaken household demand, intensify external payment pressures and weigh on investor sentiment. Government revenues could rise even as growth slows. That is the paradox at the centre of this episode, and it reflects Nigeria’s broader susceptibility to the vicissitudes of the global oil market. Oil windfalls should never be mistaken for broad-based economic progress.
POLICY PRIORITIES
First, a meaningful share of the above-benchmark oil windfall should be saved. Whether through the Stabilisation Fund, a rebuilt Excess Crude Account, or another agreed vehicle, the principle is the same: temporary gains should strengthen future resilience, not simply finance higher recurrent spending.
Second, the competition authorities and the NMDPRA should actively monitor downstream pricing and supply behaviour. The goal is not to suppress market signals, but to ensure that cost pass-through is genuine and that tight market conditions are not being exploited through withholding or excessive concentration.
Third, structural reform must continue. Nigeria’s vulnerability to oil shocks is rooted in deeper weaknesses: low non-oil tax revenue, incomplete refining self-sufficiency, continued dependence on imported refined products and shallow domestic capital markets. Higher oil prices may ease pressure for a while. They do not solve the problem.
The Gulf conflict is therefore both a windfall and a warning. Nigeria may earn more from this crisis in the short term. But unless it saves more, disciplines spending, and pushes ahead with reform, the country will once again emerge from an oil boom with the same structural fragilities it had before.
Dr Tope Fasoranti is an Economist, Banker, and Enterprise Transformation Strategist
Barnaby & Edgar Weekly Macroeconomic ReportDAILY NIGERIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (NFEM) RATES (₦/US$)
Moving Average = 1373.7410 (NFEM)
Previous Average = 1350.9033
Change = -1.6906%
Forex Analysis
Our moving average fell for the 2nd week in a row, this time by about 1.7%. The naira weakened in both the official and parallel markets, despite a $200 million cash injection spread over Feb 24th and 25th. Despite coupon payments and OMO maturities boosting naira liquidity, dollar inflows remained thin. Rising Brent crude prices (above $80/bbl by Mar 4) suggested potential future FX inflows, but immediate supply constraints kept the naira under pressure.
Daily Crude Oil Prices
Moving Average = $77.58
Previous Average = $68.81
Change = 12.7452%
Crude Oil Analysis
Our Brent crude moving average surged by about 12.75% this week. This sharp rise was driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, OPEC+ supply discipline, and speculative momentum once prices broke through the $73 resistance level.
The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury) raised fears of supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. As a result, traders priced in a significant risk premium, lifting Brent above $80.
Further inducing price rises was the fact that OPEC+ maintained strict production quotas, limiting output despite strong demand. This supply restraint amplified the upward move once geopolitical risks emerged. Demand for crude also remained strong in China and India.
NGX Top 10 Gainers for the week closing 6th Mar 2026
NGX Top 10 Losers for the week closing 6th Mar 2026
Stock Market Index Activity for the week closing 6th Mar 2026
Stock Market Index Analysis
Forty-four (44) equities appreciated in price during the week, higher than thirty-two (32) equities in the previous week. Fifty-eight (58) equities depreciated in price, lower than sixty-nine (69) equities in the previous week, while forty-six (46) equities remained unchanged, lower than forty-seven (47) recorded in the previous week.
This week the market reflected a mixed but slightly positive sentiment. The market showed improved breadth compared to last week, thus signaling a modest rebound in investor sentiment.
Oil & energy stocks (Oando, Eterna, Aradel) benefited from Brent crude’s surge above $82/bbl. Financials and insurance firms (Custodian, Sovereign Trust, Insurance PLC) saw renewed investor interest, possibly linked to expectations of stronger earnings. NGX itself gained, reflecting confidence in the exchange’s performance.
Consumer goods (Dangote Sugar, McNichols) faced selling pressure amid inflationary concerns. Financials (Jaiz Bank, Africa Prudential, AXA Mansard) saw profit‑taking after prior gains. Mining and industrials (Multiverse, Mecure, Omatek) reflected volatility in commodity‑linked plays.
Overall, the market was balanced but slightly bullish, supported by liquidity and oil‑driven optimism.
Fixed-Income Analysis
The Fixed-Income market this week was marked by steady bond yields, slightly higher NTB rates, and elevated OMO yields as the CBN balanced liquidity management with FX market pressures.
The CBN conducted Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB) auctions during the week, with strong subscription levels across short‑tenor bills. Marginal rates rose slightly, reflecting investor demand for higher returns amid naira weakness.
In the bond market, there was no major new bond issuance in this week, but secondary trading remained active. Long‑tenor bonds (10–20 years) traded steady around 18–19%, while mid‑tenor bonds saw mild upward pressure. Pension funds and domestic institutions remained the dominant buyers, preferring longer‑dated securities for yield stability.
The CBN issued OMO bills to mop up excess liquidity from coupon payments and NTB maturities. OMO yields stayed elevated (20–22%) to attract foreign portfolio investors and stabilize naira liquidity. This helped to sterilize naira inflows but did not fully offset FX market pressures.
The CBN floated new CBN bills during the week to sterilize excess naira liquidity from coupon payments and NTB maturities. Rates remained elevated in the 21–23% range, broadly in line with OMO bills, as the Bank sought to attract foreign portfolio investors and discourage speculative naira demand. Domestic banks and institutional investors subscribed actively, given the high yields and short tenors (often 90–180 days).
Daily Bitcoin Prices
Moving Average = $68,766
Previous Average = $67,115.52
Change = +2.4592%
Bitcoin Analysis
Our bitcoin moving average rose by about 2.5% this week. Bitcoin also benefited from the escalating geopolitical tensions. It acted as a hedge asset, alongside gold, attracting safe‑haven flows. Bitcoin also benefited from Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) inflows. U.S. equity market volatility also encouraged diversification into crypto. No major negative regulatory headlines emerged, allowing sentiment to remain constructive.
Professional corporate finance and consulting services.
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DAILY NIGERIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (NFEM) RATES (₦/US$)
Moving Average = 1350.9033
Previous Average = 1344.46
Change = -0.4793%
Forex Analysis
After climbing for 8 weeks, our moving fell by about 0.48%. CBN continued efforts to harmonize rates across official and parallel markets, but short‑term pressures kept the naira under mild strain. Demand remained strong from importers, tuition payments, and speculative traders, keeping pressure on the naira despite official interventions. The spread between official and parallel rates narrowed slightly, but volatility persisted due to liquidity imbalances.
Daily Crude Oil Prices
Moving Average = $68.81
Previous Average = $66.91
Change = +2.83%
Crude Oil Analysis
Brent crude prices rose about 2.83%, and the main drivers were geopolitical tensions and demand expectations:
Traders priced in a risk premium as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran approached a February 26 deadline. Brent crude climbed above $71.50 per barrel midweek, reflecting fears of potential escalation if talks failed. Statements from President Trump warning of a “very bad day” for Iran if no deal was reached added to market jitters.
By the end of the week, prices steadied just below $71 after reports of progress in talks, though U.S. officials expressed disappointment. Iran insisted it would not allow enriched uranium to leave the country, while U.S. military deployments in the Middle East kept traders cautious.
The International Energy Agency’s February 2026 Oil Market Report projected global oil demand to rise by 850,000 barrels per day in 2026, led entirely by non‑OECD economies, especially China. This reinforced bullish sentiment, with petrochemical feedstock demand driving much of the increase.
NGX Top 10 Gainers for the week closing 27th Feb 2026
NGX Top 10 Losers for the week closing 27th Feb 2026
Stock Market Index Activity for the week closing 27th Feb 2026
Stock Market Index Analysis
Thirty-one (31) equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than seventy-one (71) equities in the previous week. Thirty-eight (38) equities depreciated in price, lower than forty-one (41) equities in the previous week, while fifty-seven (57) equities remained unchanged, higher than thirty-six (36) recorded in the previous week.
The NGX closed the week lower, driven by profit-taking in large-cap stocks like Dangote Cement and MTN Nigeria. Banking and consumer goods provided some resilience, but overall sentiment was cautious as investors balanced equity gains with attractive fixed-income yields.
Fixed-Income Analysis
Yields on Nigerian Treasury Bills declined slightly during the week, reflecting strong investor demand. Investors sought short-term instruments amid uncertainty in equities. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintained tight liquidity, but real returns remained attractive given inflation around 15.15%.
On February 23, 2026, the Debt Management Office (DMO) reopened ₦800 billion worth of bonds at yields below 20%. The auction attracted strong subscriptions, signaling confidence in long-term naira assets. Yields retreated from the highs of 2025, easing borrowing costs for the government.
The CBN floated ₦3.5 trillion worth of OMO bills during the week, targeting both local banks and foreign portfolio investors. Strong demand was driven by positive real returns (real interest rate ~11.85%). Foreign investors showed renewed interest, encouraged by stable FX conditions.
In general, borrowing costs eased for the Nigerian government as yields fell on all major instruments. Robust demand from both domestic and foreign investors supported the rally, while inflation and monetary policy kept real returns attractive.
Daily Bitcoin Prices
Moving Average = $67,115.52
Previous Average = $68,162
Change = -1.535%
Bitcoin Analysis
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw $6.8 billion in outflows, which weighed on BTC demand. This capital rotation favored altcoins such as Polkadot (DOT) and Uniswap (UNI), pulling liquidity away from Bitcoin and stalling its momentum below the $70,000 mark
The state of Indiana in the US, passed a Crypto Rights Bill (Feb 26), banning discriminatory taxes and mandating crypto options in state retirement plans. While positive for long-term adoption, the immediate market reaction was muted, as traders focused more on short-term ETF flows than legislative wins.
Please Note: The Stock Market Analysis Section is Incomplete because NGX did not release a market report over the weekend. Sorry for the Inconvenience.
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DAILY NIGERIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (NFEM) RATES (₦/US$)
Moving Average = 1344.46. (NFEM)
Previous Average = 1,356.9175
Change = +0.9181%
Forex Analysis
The naira continued its climb this week, the 8th in a row. The climb has, as in previous weeks, being supported by CBN reforms, rising reserves, Treasury bill and OMO maturities, and strong remittance inflows. Demand however, has remained high in the parallel market, leading its appreciation to be a lot more uneven. Demand in the parallel market was driven by importers needing FX, families funding overseas obligations, and speculative traders.
Daily Crude Oil Prices
Moving Average = $66.91
Previous Average = $69.02
Change = -3.0571%
Crude Oil Analysis
Our Brent crude moving average fell by about 3% this week. This week’s decline was driven by profit‑taking in the Brent crude oil futures market and steady supply expectations. Prices consolidated in the mid‑$60s, suggesting traders were cautious but not bearish — the market was balancing geopolitical risk premiums against strong supply signals.
NGX Top 10 Gainers for the week closing 20th Feb 2026
NGX Top 10 Losers for the week closing 20th Feb 2026
Stock Market Index Activity for the week closing 20th Feb 2026
Stock Market Index Analysis
Seventy-one (71) equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than seventy-nine (79) equities in the previous week. Forty-one (41) equities depreciated in price, higher than twenty-seven (27) equities in the previous week, while thirty-six (36) equities remained unchanged, lower than forty-two (42) recorded in the previous week.
The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) experienced a bullish week overall, even though the breadth of market activity showed more mixed dynamics compared to the prior week. Despite fewer gainers and more losers, the All‑Share Index (ASI) appreciated by 6.95%, showing that large‑cap stocks drove the rally.
The gainers list was dominated by financials, insurance, consumer goods, and agro‑industrial firms, reflecting strong investor confidence in growth sectors. Large caps like Presco Plc and NASCON Allied Industries Plc contributed significantly to the ASI’s upward momentum.
The losers list included transport, insurance, agriculture, mining, and communications firms, suggesting sector‑specific pressures and profit‑taking in speculative counters.
The ASI’s 6.95% gain indicates that large‑cap stocks outweighed the broader decline in smaller equities, driving overall market performance upward. The increase in the number of losers compared to the prior week shows profit‑taking and sector rotation, but the dominance of large‑cap gainers ensured the index advanced.
Fixed-Income Analysis
This week, Nigeria’s government securities markets were shaped by strong liquidity inflows and robust investor demand, leading to broad‑based yield compression.
In Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs), the market ended the week on a mixed note, with modest activity across maturities. Yields eased slightly as liquidity conditions improved, supported by inflows from maturing instruments. Investor appetite remained strong, with stop rates holding in the 15–17% range, reflecting cautious optimism.
In Federal Government Bonds (FGN Bonds), the Debt Management Office (DMO) announced plans to raise ₦800bn through its February bond auction (scheduled for Feb 23), covering 7‑year and 10‑year reopenings. Ahead of the auction, secondary market yields declined across short, mid, and long tenors, signaling cheaper borrowing costs for the government. This rally reflected renewed appetite for naira‑denominated assets despite tight liquidity.
In OMO Bills, February was marked by heavy maturities, with about ₦8.61 trillion in inflows from OMO, NTBs, and bond coupons. On Feb 17, ₦1.87 trillion worth of OMO maturities boosted system liquidity to ₦5.26 trillion, driving down yields. The CBN responded with an OMO auction debit of ₦2.30 trillion to mop up excess liquidity, balancing short‑term rates.
In CBN Bills, bill issuance during the week was part of liquidity management operations, complementing OMO auctions. With strong inflows from maturities, yields on CBN bills also compressed, aligning with NTB and OMO trends. The apex bank’s interventions kept funding rates (OBB ~22.5%, O/N ~22.8%) relatively stable despite the liquidity surge.
Daily Bitcoin Prices
Moving Average = $68,162
Previous Average = $68,490
Change = -0.4789%
Bitcoin Analysis
The bitcoin market was relatively stable this week, after a series of heavy losses from earlier weeks. The week was defined by sideways consolidation: early strength near $69k, a mid‑week dip to $66k, and a late rebound. Daily trading volumes stayed strong (50k–57k BTC equivalent), showing active participation rather than illiquidity. Overall, Bitcoin remained in a tight trading band ($66k–$69k), signaling stability after January’s volatility.
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DAILY NIGERIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (NFEM) RATES (₦/US$)
Moving Average = 1,356.9175 (NFEM)
Previous Average = 1,381.6626
Change = +1.7910%
Forex Analysis
Our naira to dollar moving average rose yet again this week, making that 7 weeks in a row. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintained interventions and electronic trading frameworks to keep the official window orderly.
Traders in the parallel market reported moderate volatility, with persistent demand for foreign currency and limited supply thus keeping rates elevated. The spread between official and parallel markets remained wide (~₦80–₦100), underscoring the structural gap in Nigeria’s forex system.
Daily Crude Oil Prices
Moving Average = $69.02
Previous Average = $68.45
Change = +0.8327%
Crude Oil Analysis
Our Brent crude moving average rose by about 0.8% this week. This was driven by a number of factors that include:
- Short-term optimism – The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil demand in 2026 was expected to rise by about 850,000 barrels per day, led by non‑OECD economies, especially China. This gave traders confidence that consumption growth could offset some of the surplus concerns.
- Supply-side signals – Despite oversupply projections (a surplus of 3.7 million barrels/day in 2026), temporary supply outages and firmer physical market fundamentals created pockets of upward price pressure.
- Geopolitical backdrop – Diplomatic talks with Iran reduced immediate fears of supply disruption, which kept volatility contained but allowed prices to rebound slightly when demand signals strengthened.
NGX Top 10 Gainers for the week closing 13th Feb 2026
NGX Top 10 Losers for the week closing 13th Feb 2026
Stock Market Index Activity for the week closing 13th Feb 2026
Stock Market Index Analysis
Seventy-nine (79) equities appreciated in price during the week, higher than seventy-one (71) equities in the previous week. Twenty-seven (27) equities depreciated in price, lower than thirty-five (35) equities in the previous week, while forty-two (42) equities remained unchanged, same as forty-two (42) recorded in the previous week.
The gainers list was dominated by consumer goods, insurance, logistics, and ICT firms, suggesting strong investor interest in diverse sectors. Many of these companies are smaller‑cap stocks, which often respond quickly to liquidity inflows and speculative demand.
The losers list included financials, aviation services, breweries, and insurance firms, reflecting sector‑specific pressures. Larger caps like Ecobank and Guinness saw declines, showing that profit‑taking and sector rotation were at play.
The week’s activity suggests investors were rotating into growth and speculative plays, while trimming positions in some established large caps. The breadth of appreciation (79 gainers vs. 27 losers) highlights strong market sentiment, likely supported by liquidity conditions and expectations of corporate earnings.
Fixed-Income Analysis
Nigeria’s fixed‑income markets were shaped by large liquidity inflows, strong investor demand, and yield adjustments.
In Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs), yields remained elevated, with NTB yields trading in the 15–17% range, reflecting tight monetary conditions and CBN’s stance on inflation control. Investor demand was strong, with subscriptions exceeding ₦1.5 trillion earlier in the year, reinforcing upward pressure on yields.
In Federal Government Bonds, Bond yields compressed slightly during the week as liquidity conditions improved. The FMDQ debt market hit ₦99.3 trillion in size, supported by inflows from maturities and coupon payments. Investors positioned across short‑, mid‑, and long‑tenors, with yields easing despite the CBN’s tight policy stance.
In OMO Bills, February has been marked by significant maturities, with OMO redemptions contributing to an estimated ₦8.61 trillion liquidity injection into the financial system. This boosted system liquidity, leading to divergent money market rates: some banks placed excess funds with the CBN’s Standing Deposit Facility, while others borrowed at higher rates via the Standing Lending Facility.
CBN used CBN Bills to absorb excess liquidity, balancing the impact of large inflows from maturities and bond coupon payments.
Daily Bitcoin Prices
Moving Average = $68,490
Previous Average = $75,681
Change = -9.5017%
Bitcoin Analysis
Bitcoin continued its free-fall, falling by 9.5% this week. Profit-taking, liquidity shocks and concerns about tighter global monetary policy continued to affect the market adversely, despite the high trading volumes. The high trading volumes suggested large positions were unwound, amplifying volatility.
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DAILY NIGERIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (NFEM) RATES (₦/US$)
Moving Average = 1,381.6626 (NFEM)
Previous Average = 1,411.7185
Change = +2.1290%
Forex Analysis
Prudent management of the naira has kept our moving average rising for 6 weeks in a row. CBN interventions via the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) continued this week, as well as improved liquidity from oil receipts and external reserves. The naira remained weaker in the parallel market, with rates consistently above ₦1,450/$, reflecting:
- High retail demand for dollars by importers and individuals.
- Limited official supply filtering into informal channels.
- Persistent gap between official and parallel rates, though narrowing slightly as official liquidity improved.
Confidence improved in the official window thanks to CBN transparency and liquidity injections. However, retail users continued to rely on the parallel market, keeping pressure on that segment.
Daily Crude Oil Prices
Moving Average = $68.45
Previous Average = $63.89
Change = +7.1373%
Crude Oil Analysis
Our Brent crude moving average rose by about 7%. Market activity was driven by Middle East geopolitics, OPEC+ supply discipline, shifting demand signals, and currency effects. Prices held steady near $69–70 early in the week, dipped to $67.55 on Feb 5 after U.S.–Iran talks eased risk premiums.
Concerns about potential supply disruptions kept Brent anchored near $69–70 early in the week. On Feb 5, Iran confirmed negotiations with the U.S. in Oman, reducing immediate fears of military conflict and lowering the geopolitical risk premium.
Reports indicated OPEC+ members were sticking to output cuts, tightening supply. U.S. data showing weaker private jobs numbers midweek raised concerns about slower fuel demand. This was however offset by signs of stronger manufacturing activity in China and India, supporting expectations of rising consumption.
NGX Top 10 Gainers for the week closing 6th Feb 2026
NGX Top 10 Losers for the week closing 6th Feb 2026
Stock Market Index Activity for the week closing 6th Feb 2026
Stock Market Index Analysis
Seventy-one (71) equities appreciated in price during the week, higher than forty-four (44) equities in the previous week. Thirty-five (35) equities depreciated in price, lower than forty-nine (49) equities in the previous week, while forty-two (42) equities remained unchanged, lower than fifty-five (55) recorded in the previous week.
This week, the Nigerian stock market was broadly bullish, with more equities appreciating than depreciating compared to the previous week. Overall breadth was positive, indicating a broad‑based rally across sectors.
The top gainers represented a mix of consumer goods, financials, industrials, and communications, showing that the rally was not sector‑specific but spread across diverse industries. Gains were driven by renewed investor confidence, bargain hunting, and expectations of stronger corporate earnings.
The top losers were concentrated in insurance, real estate, and logistics, sectors that faced profit‑taking and weaker sentiment. Losses were relatively contained compared to the prior week, showing that selling pressure was easing.
Fixed-Income Analysis
This week, Nigerian government securities were shaped by tight liquidity, heavy CBN interventions, and strong investor demand. Treasury bills and OMO bills saw aggressive auctions with high subscription levels, FGN bonds traded at elevated yields around 16–17%, while CBN bills were used to mop up excess liquidity amid inflationary pressures.
In Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs), the CBN offered large volumes across 91‑day, 182‑day, and 364‑day maturities. Subscription levels were strong, with cover ratios exceeding 2x. Marginal rates cleared around 15.8–18.5%, reflecting tight monetary policy and inflation expectations. Secondary market trading was firm, with short‑tenor bills seeing steady demand from banks seeking liquidity management.
In Federal Government Bonds, the 10‑year benchmark traded near 16.88%, while mid‑tenors (5–10 years) cleared around 16.55–16.80%. Demand was broad‑based, with auctions oversubscribed (2.5x cover). High yields attracted pension funds and asset managers, but tight liquidity limited aggressive positioning. Bonds rallied slightly post‑auction, showing confidence in government debt sustainability despite high borrowing costs.
In OMO bills, CBN conducted multiple OMO auctions during the week, offering long‑tenor bills (208–354 days). Demand was extremely strong with cover ratios as high as 9.9x. Bills cleared between 17.2–25.0%, reflecting investor appetite for high‑yield short‑term paper. Liquidity tightened significantly, with ₦3.79 trillion worth of OMO debits hitting the system, pushing overnight rates above 26%.
In CBN bills, yields cleared in the 15–18% range, broadly aligned with NTBs. This had the effect of sterilizing excess liquidity from maturing bills and oil revenue inflows, reinforcing the CBN’s tightening stance.
Daily Bitcoin Prices
Moving Average = $75,681
Previous Average = $88,243
Change = -14.2357%
Bitcoin Analysis
Our bitcoin moving average fell by a whopping 14% this week, with bitcoin experiencing a drop of 15% in a single day of Feb 5th. The market continued to suffer from profit-taking and fears of stricter regulatory oversight in the US and Europe. Risk sentiment in the broader macroeconomic environment also continued to encourage investors to flee to safer assets, with bitcoin a victim of the capital flight to safety.
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