Joseph Edgar

As a Stockbroker , you struggle for the equilibrium price in making your deal.. The equilibrium price is the point where demand and supply meets and at that point you lock down.

Now the equilibrium prices proposes that all other factors are constant. No distortions and no artifical manipulations but even as that, the manipulations always only just postpones the convergence of demand and supply.

I have looked very critically at this Forex crises and have seen that the continuous fall of the Naira although leveraged on a supply issue worsened by dislocations and corruption, t have been panic and a loss of confidence by the markets in the system and it’s leadership.

This has been very clear in the last eight months, when Mr President at his inauguration made a proclamation on subsidy without thinking thru.

No doubt, the Naira deserved some level of devaluation at least about 20% of its then value with a long lay off of stability before a further devaluation, if the supply issues are not corrected and if the Government continued with lethargic policies before finding its true value hinged on the free market forces of demand and supply.

But what we have seen so far is what I want to call a ‘yepa’ devaluation. A ‘yepa’ devaluation, is a free Fall.. Like an elevator dropping or a plane crashing from the sky. That is what we are seeing with almost an hourly fall of the Naira with a respite only on Sundays when every body is resting.

By Monday morning it resumes and everybody from the President to the CBN Governor to the prostitute are shouting yepa as the Naira is belly hopping and embarrassing its self.

As it spirals down, it’s weight throws up inflation leading to low purchasing power and it’s attendant fall in profitability – did you see that NBL loss position? A real yepa loss.

Then this hits food prices with the inflation in that sector hitting 40% in some states and this leads to social challenges and a restive populace.

But let’s calm down. The tipping point would soon be reached and there is nothing that can stop it . It will get to that point where it will just not make sense to buy the dollar at that price and we will now start looking for alternatives and we will begin to see a reversal.

The rate of fall of the Naira slowed down a few days ago and picked up somewhat. But I can sense that we are getting to the tipping point very slowly but for sure.

So now when u do the Exchange for a pair of shoes for example and see the figure in Naira, you will calm down. No matter the level of corruption and dislocation, it will just not make sense to buy the dollar at a particular price again

Don’t forget I had ascribed the fall of the Naira to articificial dislocations-hoarding, store of value, corruption being at least 60% of its causative factor meaning that there is really no fundamental reason for it at least not at this rate .

What that means in essence is that when we hit the tipping point, the fall of the dollar will also make some people cry.

Today people are refusing to buy dollar denominated houses in high brow ikoyi cos it doesn’t make sense. They would rather go to Manhattan to buy a flat rather than buy a a property here in Ikoyi where LASTMA will still Jack up your car for the same price of a condo on 5th avenue in New York.

My advice is for sectors like health, education, agric to start preparing for the floodgate from the reversal. They should raise fresh capital and expand their structures to accommodate fresh pressing demand.

In education for example, rate of admission of Nigerian students in the UK have dropped by 46% year on year cos cost has moved fron say N10m per semester just this last December to N44m per semester today. Less than six months after and if they are not trying to replicate another Einstelient in your child, you must then take a practical decsions.

What this means is that schools like Wigwe University are well positioned to receive the expected deluge of returnee scholars .

Same with health, facilities like Evercare, Lagooon hospitals, Duchess are well positioned to take advantage of the reversal

Another human factor that will drive the tipping point faster will be Nationalism, it will get to a point where everybody – Government, business, speculators and international multilateral organisations will say – OK, this doesn’t make sense anymore

You know why, we have the population, we have the 60% informal sector that serves as a bulwark against elitist driven hyper inflation. Once we sort out security and agriculture, the foundations of the economy although shaken will take us back despite Government

So guys don’t worry, it’s a turbulence and we would soon clear it.. Let’s don’t lose our heads all we need to do is honker down and brave it.

Do not save money at this time. Your Savings account is the worse thing for you as it doesn’t make sense at this point. buy Treasury Bills, buy real estate on the mainland – still has some leg room, spend on yiur children’s education locally, keep cash, take up positions and do transactions but no matter what Don’t save I beg you.

It will be well, it will soon be over Nigeria is bigger than all of us.

Thanks

Duke of Shomolu

On the back of Awo-UK, I was today interviewed by a British journalist and he said something that more than surprised me.

He said, ‘Edgar let me look for your trouble, people say you are brash and bold and don’t really care about what pple think about you and you say things like Bolanle Austen Peters is the mother of Modern day theatre which annoys people

I laughed. This was a fight that happened on my brother Steve the former Culture Commissioner for Lagos what’s app group. I had made that statement there and had received so much flak that if not that it was virtual I would have recieved some physical bashing.

I eventually left the group on the back of another wahala I had caused and only just came back on it a few weeks ago

And here I am taking questions all the way FROM London and the statement comes back to haunt me.

I took a deep breath and mustered all the energy I could muster and said it very clearly to my interviewer – yes I said it and yes in my estimation, she is the mother of modern day Nigerian theatre

I don’t make this assertion lightly as a man who is versed in quantitative analysis. I also do not make this statement lightly as one who looks at the facts refusing to play in the emotional corridors that most stakeholders play in

I used the word, ‘Modern’ meaning that from my Political science background I have been able to situate my periodicity to the 2000s effectively cutting off the Festac 77 era back to Hubert Ogunde or any respected precursor.

So for me, modern times is from the 2000s till date. I may also take into a little consideration the tipple that was the then Nigerian International Banks incursion with their Unilag shows and the coming of Umoja the south African Troupe.

If we agree with my periodicity, then you will now agree with me that nobody-male or female have achieved any quantifiable landmarks than Mrs Austen Peters.

Her first incursion with Saro beat all box office records in ticket sales throwing up the spectre of a secondary market in ticket sales in Theatre something that has never happened before.

From that point she seized the market breaking all sort of milestones and taking cities like Abuja and London while redefining the genre with spectacular lights, set, sound and choreography.

Sadly, watchers in the industry play a lot in the gray areas and would rather push emotional and subjective arguments when this issue comes up.

They would just say No without backing it up with any verifiable stats. The questions that need to be answered are-

Who surpasses her in ticket sales, number of sponsors, regularity in shows, length of a run, consistency, media positioning, size of Cast amongst others

The closest we have seen is mayb Joke Silva’s Lufodo who slowed down for a bit but only just picked up after they won the concession for Glover Hall thereby lacking the consistency needed.

Others like Uche Nwokedi who just resuscutated his Kakadu after years of absence, Ayo Jaiyesinmi who we have not heard from in a bit and my sister Ify Fafunwa who have refused to bring anything outside the Vagina Monologues have all not really been able to match her energy

We at Duke of Shomolu look very closely at her amazing stats and use them as inspiration to push. Truth is that even us as at today do not have the capacity to do a 10 day run like she does so easily talk less of any other player aforementioned or anywhere in the space.

She has undisputed size and very strong market presence. This December, the market witnessed a slew of productions from her reunion Saro to our two plays, the Makinde Adeniran penned History Sings and Dr Erojikwe’take on my satire Our Duke Has Gone Mad Again with Joke Silvas showing at the Glover Hall and Uche Nwokedi’s Kakadu which played after us throwing up one of the best seasons in recent times of Nigerian theatre

She still came up tops at the box office as the rest except maybe us struggled to fill their seats. I knw cos I monitored the big mainstream plays and not the ‘off Broadway’ ones that dotted other venues like Eko Hotel and other such none tradional theatre venues and saw a lot of of empty seats

One about Jesus Christ that took place beside us at the 1,000 seater Shell Hall of the Muson Centre could not even pull 50 pple while the rest did slightly better but no where near us talkless of the giant Bolanle

Bolanle filled her 450 capacity Tera Arena two times a day for 10 days very easily to the point that people where even scalping the tickets and making a quick buck by reselling.

Achieving this with a rehashed Saro that had been panned by some so called theatre critics shows her market confidence and placements and this is what sponsors who are the main fuel for growth in our industry look at in choosing who to back.

We at Duke of Shomolu have begun to boast of Stats in some indices that may question her leadership in one or two indices like number of sponsors per show and number of shows per year.

Last year we had 6 against her two and in one indie, we beat her soundly by doing a Lagos -Ekiti combo to her mono city showing. But where it matters the most-Box office, she beat us soundly like the babies that we are to her.

If we with our stats dare not contend with her in market leadership nobody else in the industry can. It’s that simple.. It’s not an emotional talk or whether she is fine or ugly, it is very clear and verifiable figures.

Finally, I dare say that Bolanle is the only one in the industry today that can do a major show only from advanced ticket sales. Nobody else can try it not even us at Duke of Shomolu who is today a distant second from her

If you see her sponsorship flow u see only about 6-MTN, Ecobank, Dormwn long, Amstel malt and Africa magic and Beats Fm.

The last two are media outfits which means no cash. The others are long term contracts payable at the beginning of the year what this means is that, she has power in the retail market and my people that is where it matters and not if Bimbo Manuel is a better Actor than Yemi Shodimu for us business people.

Now on the very subjective area of technicals, I agree that I am not qualified to talk about that one, so I shut up and as such you guys should accept the fact that my position is based on clear areas that I can see as an Investment banker.

So my dear journalist, based on this empirical deductions, Bolanle Austen Peters is the mother of modern day Nigerian theatre and will rule the roost for a long time to come.

Oya make una come beat me.

Duke of Shomolu

The Government spokesman was in shock as reports of his son flew across social media. He had been sent to France in a bid to run away from the dilabitating educational ferment that was our country.

But what the dotting dad didn’t take into cognisance was the softer issues that bedeck our children in strange climes as we turn them into educational refugees in search of the golden fleese that was seemingly no longer available in our clime.

We never take into consideration the impacting effect of culture on our kids as we ship them out. The ways of doing things, the outlook to life, the dizzying dislocation of a civilization seemingly running mad in our eyes, the sexual openness and I dare say perversion all throwing themselves at our kids and backed by a legal structure that encourages and protects what we term as deviancy but what is looked at as the norm in those climes

At the extreme, are the unwitting exposure to a run away sexual culture that allows for no boundaries but run very counter to what we believe in. Drugs, and so many other issues that gives parents with kids out there more than enough sleepless nights.

Personally, with three kids out there, I feel the brunt of the ‘attack’. You are cut off from their lives, you cannot ask questions, you loose control and u just basically watch your child go through life without the ability to play your parental role of guiding them thru the turbulence that is the growing up years.

I once had an encounter with my daughter, chantal. She had called from an ambulance and said she had lost consciousness. I was expectedly in a state and asked what was the matter. She spoke and I heard something and I said, do you drink and she said ‘I don’t think you can pry’

I almost fainted. She dropped the phone and didn’t take my calls for three days. In exasperation, I screamed and then I started hearing stories. Frustrations from almost 80% of parents I spoke to who have children out there studying

I called a friend who lives there and begged him to intervene. He tried and called me back. ‘Edgar she is an adult there is really nothing you or I can do, please thread carefully so you don’t get a law suit slammed at you.

My frustration was crazy. Here is my child, I sent to school but can’t reach her cos she had been ensconced into a system that doesn’t understand the values only an African parent can instill.

As we struggle with the strange cultural influences, the macro environment sets in. Visa bans, regulatory changes, Forex crises and all.

Today a lot of parents even in well heeled homes find it very difficult to sustain their wards in those schools at these rates of exchange.

This has led to a lot of dislocation in the lives of these children and we have begun to witness a very high attrition rate with the incidence of dropping out on the increase. In some cases I have heard, is as high as 20%

This is where the Wigwe University comes in, in my head. The Wigwe University is a new entrant in a gilded space of private universities who cater for students in a very conducive environment and with the highest level of standards.

I have been told that about 35% of its faculty have been pulled in from very prestigious global institutions. With super excitng infrastructure esp smart classrooms and a carefully curated local faculty, the cultural balance needed to ensure healthy studentship is maintained.

For me, it’s establishment joins other such institutions dotting our tertiary educational landscape who are more than prepared to receive the inflow of what I want to call ‘reverse Japa’ without breaking a sweat.

Recently, it flew into a little storm with it being accused of insensitivity by charging its fees in Forex especially at a times of a major Forex crises making Nigerians ask some very telling questions.

It however quickly cleared the air with an explanation that local students pay in local currency while foreign students pay in Forex, a situation that would better impact our national Forex inflows if well structured.

So the question now on my lips is, if our children can go as near as Ghana and as far as South Africa and other third world countries as they flee the now extremely expensive halls of the US and Europe, why can’t they also face home especially when the facilities and standards better compete with whatever could be found in the first world.

For me, it’s the ethos of the Wigwe University from it’s recent press statement that got me – they say that they see education as a strong tool for social transformation and for me that is the main koko.

I will be instructing my son Alvin Joseph Edgar who is about to do his JAMB to take Wigwe University as his first choice, at least we can reach there with night bus if anything happen.

Thanks

Duke of Shomolu

It’s beginning to look like my quip on Reno Omokhiri the loose mouthed Social media warrior in my Colunm today in Thisday was easily the most popular.

The Colunm contained about 9 stories. Cardoso the CBN Governor and his brother the Finance Minister Wale Edun was the lead, It also carried some equally beautiful write ups on the controversial Pastor Tobi of London and also the story of Pastor Adefarasin who allegedly attacked a commercial bus for daring to scratch his car according to reports.

But it seemed the Reno one carried the candle. I have received feedback from all over the world thanking me for a job welldone. Some feedback came with avowed tiredness from his continuing hatchet job and gratitude for standing up to the bully.

I have tried to ignore Reno as I do not see him as a serious commentator. I see him as a verbal mercenary who will jump on any issue as long as he is well compensated and people like this only just cause confusion as they plod along for a morsel.

I still remember his anti tinubu stance at the early stage of the campaign and how he stormed London dressed like SIMON Templer and calling Tinubu ‘Ole’ amongst other derogatory names.

How he got his Paul of Tarsus moment where he suddenly saw the light beats me. Today he is more loyal than Remi Tinubu who warms the Presidents bed.

His attack on MTN riled me. It annoyed millions of Nigerians at the crass ignorance he displayed. Not understanding the issues or choosing to ignore them as he pranced about making very infantile assertions hoping to sway public opinion against the grain of facts

How would u say that Nigeria shd protect a debtor firm against a foreign firm just for nationalistic purposes. This assertion is as stupid as stupid can be.

A debt that I have heard is in excess of N10b? Reno now wants us to ignore that for patriotic reasons cos according to him South Africa would have done so?

The firm he is siding is not even as Nigerian as MTN. The facts are stated in my Thisday Colunm. MTN has paid trillions into state coffers as tax, employed thousands of Nigerians and much more importantly is owned 30% by Nigerians as against his preferred Nigerian entity with just one man ownership without any credible financial reports ever released.

Reno now wants us to ignore the N10b so that when next President Tinubu is on his marketing jaunts abroad looking for investors, they will remind him of MTNs N10b which has not been paid.

Instead of Reno to plead with his principal to go offset the debt so as to shore up his credibility, he is now trying to guilt trip MTN that has invested so much on infrastructure amongst others in an environment where other foreign investors are running from.

Reno is dangerous for the country’s continued stability. People like him who earn a living by selling falsehood shd really be exposed for what they are – intellectual barbarians and wicked vultures who wish us all dead so they can feed on our corpses

We must begin to enlighten our people so that they will be able to discern issues thereby building a bulwark against charlatans like Reno.

This is a must, if we must retain any hope of rebuilding this country because sadly, Reno is not alone in this develish work.

Pharaohs like him abound the firmament and only truth and enlightenment can eradicate their vile odour. We must scatter them the way insecticides scatter rodents in our kitchen so that they do not poison our food and leave us sick.

Reno to me is a cockroach, a very ugly one for that matter

Thanks

Duke of Shomolu

I have just come out of an interesting session with a very brilliant team from the Pan African University. I dont know how they know me o but found me a worthy subject of a very seminal research paper.

They wanted to gauge the role of social media in combating corruption or something along those lines. I didn’t take them seriously simply because these people come at me and I tell them my mind and they find it very odious and end up not using my thoughts .

But Dr Odoh was very persistent, as all my attempts at dodging including pretending that the network was not working fell on deaf ears. She pushed and pushed and pushed and finally she got me.

Edgar, what is your take on corruption she fired.. I responded, my sister we are all thieves. She smiled and looked towards her colleague who was struggling with his ear piece.

I continued, every Nigerian is a thief simple. The problem is that we tend to play the ostrich game and say ohh it’s Government and it’s officials that are corrupt.

Big fat lie. All 200m of us are thieves and are corrupt. Corruption is the most democratised and universally spread ethos in Nigeria today.

Blaming Government alone is just a very terrible sign of a national collective push towards denial. The society is corrupt and it is from this pool of corruption that we select our leaders.

I always laugh when we rail against corruption in government and the next minute rush to your Senator and expect him to pay your children’s school fees or pay the maternity bill of your thrid wife or help u cure ur venral disease.

It is this pressure that leads to them stealing cos if they don’t settle their constituents, their career is gone.. So it is only the very stupid ones from us and we are plenty, that will stand and be shouting-war against corruption.

Can you wage a war against yourself,,? Corruption is now more than ever before ingrained in our psyche, systems, institions , ethos and our culture.

Corruption is Nigerian and we must accept it for what it is, a part of our lives, a mainstay and the only thing that welds us together as a people.

Corruption is a unifying factor. It brings all tribes together in unity as we pilfer and steal. Did you see the tribes that were involved in the Betty Edu malfeasance? Almost every tribe and tongue was represented.

I told them that corruption was OK but that the issue was that it conveyed undue advantage to those who either by status, stature and financial position where positioned for it.

Once that advantage is removed everything will be perfect. It is in this guise that we would need to regulate and manage it.

It is a cancer, it has no cure all we can do is to learn to live with it. Give everybody access to corruption. Don’t do different rules for everybody, let all of us have the ability to bribe police, beat up a judge for a funny ruling and settle referee in a football match and you will see how everything will calm down.

They now asked me what role I thought social media would play in all these and I shouted.

Social media in the hands of a barely literate population is the worse thing that has ever happened to this country since Dimka killed Murtala Mohammed.

When people who cannot dimension issues are given power by virtue of N100 data, what you see is chaos and anarchy. I asked them to go to the comment sections of any major blog and they will see madness.

What we now have are virtual mobs roaming the cyber world, bullying people and weakening institutions. You begin to see court judgements leaning towards social media pressure, Government officials reacting or creating policies to either abate or curry social media to the point that an actress with no real experience in governance or a firm grasp of issues attempting to parley her huge following into power.

My people, at the end, I told these egg heads from this great university, that their questioning was wrong and would not achieve any purpose if they began like d rest of society to hold out Government as the citadel of corruption with an exclusive monopoly.

I told them that we must begin to reorientate society so that we will all agree that we are all corrupt and then begin to push in education and enlightenment so that self regulation will kick in.

I added dt we may not see results in our lifetime but we must start and it behoves on schools like the Pan African University to lead the push and come down from its high horses and lead the push for self enlightenment of the people with the hope that just may be we would be able to begin to change the narrative ever so slowly

But for now, I assured them that we are all corrupt including them interviewing me and the sooner we all agree to this fact the better for us.

Thank you

Duke of Shomolu