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Economic development is both a policy objective and a means to achieving other policy goals, such as full employment, poverty alleviation, egalitarianism, and social progress.

One way to grasp the meaning of economic development is to understand what it is not. To begin with, economic development, though closely related to, is not identical with economic growth. Growth in real GDP or GNP is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for development.

An economy may register a sound growth rate but may still fall well short of development. An obvious example is Nigeria, whose GDP grew at a very healthy rate in 1960s and then in 1970s but the economy never approached the level of development.

Nor is a high per capita income an essential indicator of development. There are, for example, many oil producing Arab countries with a remarkably high per capita income but lacking in the elements that constitute development.

It is also important not to equate development with egalitarianism. Doubtlessly, narrowing of economic equalities is both a component of the development process and its goal. However, it is possible for underdevelopment and egalitarianism to co-exist as in the case of primitive societies. Conversely, a highly developed economy may have gross inequalities, which for Karl Marx is the common fate of all capitalist economies.

Then what is economic development? Economic development is growth in GDP accompanied by relevant social and institutional changes by which that growth can be sustained.

These changes include reduction in absolute poverty, a better quality of life, high literacy level, improved productivity of labour and other factors of production, sophisticated techniques of production, development of physical and commercial infrastructure, higher savings, increase in employment opportunities, a positive attitude towards life and work, and a stable political system.

Having defined economic development, let’s discuss the factors underlying it. The foremost factor lying at the bottom of development is economic growth. Economic development is possible only if the real GDP grows at a fast pace over a long period.

The engine of GDP growth is investment or capital formation. Most developing countries are characterised by deficiency of capital due to low level of investment.

Investment has both supply and demand sides. On supply side, investment requires savings. Whenever savings are low, as in case of most developing countries, investment falls short of the desired level. But why savings are low? Savings depend on several factors such as interest rates, inflation, the consumption habits of the people, and taxes. Higher interest rates, for instance, encourage savings.

On the contrary, when there is inflation, the currency loses its value and people want to get rid of it quickly, thus consumption increases and savings fall. However, the single most important factor behind savings is real income. Savings tend to be higher among high-income people and vice versa.

In developing countries, the primary reason for low savings and thus low investment is the low incomes. As incomes are low in these economies, there is little left after meeting essential consumption needs.

On demand side, investment depends on potential or estimated demand for output. Despite the availability of savings, businesses will step up their investment only if they see higher demand for their output.

Conversely, if potential demand falls, firms will cut back on their output and investment. As in case of savings, the demand for output depends on several factors, such as price, customer preferences and tastes, and the marketing tools used by firms.

However, the single most important factor bearing upon demand is again income. Demand goes up if income goes up and vice versa. It follows that in case of developing countries, the most powerful factor underlying deficiency of investment is low incomes.

Lower incomes restrict investment and hence output and employment, which in turn obstruct efforts to raise the income level. This is a catch-22 situation for several developing countries.

If employment opportunities are to increase, investment must increase. However, investment cannot increase if income level does not go up. And income level cannot go up if employment opportunities do not increase.

There are two ways out of this predicament: increase in government spending, and provision of foreign capital. By stepping up its spending, the government can increase the productive capacity of the economy provided the increased spending is invested in producing capital goods.

The enhanced government spending also creates demand for businesses, goods and services. Businesses respond by increasing output and hiring more labour. The income earned by the workers is partly saved and partly consumed thus adding to total savings and demand in the economy.

Increase in government spending, however, is not without problems. The stepped up government expenditure can be financed by levying more taxes, borrowing or printing money.

Increase in taxes is not advisable, as it will negatively affect already low business activity. Borrowing will add to public debt. The easiest option for the government is to print money.

This however will cause inflation. A moderate degree of inflation is acceptable. But a high degree of inflation is not only politically dangerous but may also cause the breakdown of the monetary system.

In view of the problems associated with increase in government spending, developing countries have to look for external capital, which can be in the form of aid or investment. It is were today, most developing countries are not only deficient in capital, but they also have a very slow rate of capital formation.

They also have a very high capital-output ratio. Both to increase the rate of capital formation and narrow capital-output ratio, technology are essential. Technology increases the productivity of both labour and capital.

In the absence of technological improvement, the marginal productivity of capital falls, which squeezes profits. In such situation, the inducement to invest is negatively affected.

That is why technology is called the catalyst of economic development. Technology is another weak area in case of developing countries. They are deficient in both the “brains” and the “resources” necessary for technological development.

Many developing countries are beset with superstitions, and there is lack of the spirit of free enquiry and scepticism, which is so important for scientific progress. The choice of the right technology is also very important.

Capital intensive or labour-saving techniques may increase output but may also increase unemployment and poverty. Labour intensive techniques, by contrast, may increase employment but may have a limited effect on increasing output.

The third important factor is human resource development. Some economists believe that human resource development is the most important factor in economic development. Human resource development is a broad concept encompassing moral, economic, political and cultural rights.

It is about giving people access to the resources essential for a decent standard of living and participating in communal life. It aims at creating an environment in which people can realize their potentials to the best and become more productive.

The main indicators of human development are a high literacy level, decline in poverty, access to safe drinking water and sanitation, a high life expectancy level and ability to make decisions that affect oneself.

Unfortunately, while developed countries have, by and large a high level of human resource development, developing countries are characterised by a low level of human resource development. Majority of sub-Saharan African countries have a low human development indicators (HDI) ranking.

Traditionally, land or natural resources have been regarded as essential for economic development. Classical economists like Adam Smith placed great emphasis on the role of land in economic development.

It is true that land played an important role in the development of countries like the USA and Denmark among several others. However, in present times, it is believed that natural resources, though important, are not as essential for economic development. Development of countries like Japan, South Korea and Singapore shows that an economy can develop even if it is not rich in natural resources.

Having discussed the basic components of economic development, let’s turn to Nigeria and see what has hindered its development. The example of Nigeria is also important because it shows that economic growth may not be translated into development.

Nigeria has an estimated population of about 206 million, making it the seventh most populous country in the world. The country’s population is projected to increase to 263 million in 2030 and 401 million in 2050 when it will become the third most populous country in the world. This is because the country’s population continues to grow at a high rate of 2.6%. The global population growth is 1.05% per year.

Since the independence of Nigeria in 1960, the average growth rate of its per capita GDP has been 1.7 percent per year. The stability of the country’s economic growth is an indication that the country is very close to its long-run steady state balanced growth path. This evidently shows in the absence of trends in its capital-output ratio and its real interest rates. The average real GDP per capita was about US$ 1222 between 1950 and 1959. The amount rose to US$1477 under the regime of the country’s first president. The GDP per capita reached a peak of about US$1804 on average between 1976 and 1979 during the military period of Olusegun Obasanjo. After the Obasanjo’s military regime, the declining trend of average real GDP per capita was observed. Prior to the adoption of 1986 Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in the country, the average per capita was almost US$ 1544 between 1960 and 1985. However, a decline in real GDP per capita was experienced after the SAP era. The real GDP per capita on average stood at US$1446 when the country was under the military regime. Since the adoption of a democratic system in the country, there was an improvement in the real GDP per capita. This might reflect the positive effect of democracy on the economic growth identified in academic literature. Also, the highest annual growth rate of Nigeria’s GDP per capita was observed between 1999 and 2007.

In the same vein, the rate of GDP per capita growth in the post-SAP era was higher compared to the pre-SAP era. Under the Gowon administration, the country witnessed the highest growth rate of economic growth but its real GDP per capita had the highest during the military administration of Olusegun Obasanjo. The drastic fall in the growth rate of per capita GDP was noticeable when Shehu Shagari controlled the affairs of the country. However, the country’s average annual GDP per capita since its independence was US$1627.59 compared to US$1222.48 between 1950 and 1959. This indicates that Nigeria was able to contribute about US$405(33% increase) to its pre-independence per capita income for more than 62 years of her independence.

If the country’s economic history is any guide, a healthy growth rate may not get translated into development if concomitant changes are not effected, particularly with regard to human resource development, technological up gradation and capital formation.

The following socio-economic indicators bring out that a lot of ground has yet to be covered before the country can embark on the road to economic development. In the 2021 Human Development Index (HDI) ranking by UNDP, which measures the long and healthy life, access to knowledge, and a decent standard of living. Nigeria is placed 163 at among 191 countries.

Nigeria’s position is among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. And this is not surprising. Life expectancy in Nigeria is 61.33 years, which is even less than the world average of 67 years. Infant mortality rate is 56.86 (per 1000 births), higher than the world average of 55. Under five mortality rate is 117-again higher than the world average of 81.

Judged by the recent multidimensional poverty report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), about 133 million Nigerians, representing about 63% of the country’s population are poor. Poverty is a serious obstacle to Nigeria’s economic development: Poverty means low incomes, low savings or even dis-savings, high birth rates, and low literacy level, which hamper development efforts.

Literacy level is 62.02 per cent. Granted that this official figure is not exaggerated, the literacy level is still very low. A major cause of low literacy level is meagre expenditure on education, which is less than five per cent of GDP.

According to a 2022 UNESCO report, Nigeria has about 20 million out-of-school children the highest in the world. From the report, one can observe that the figures in Nigeria have oscillated between 10.5 million and around 15 million for more than a decade, with the situation growing worse due to the degenerating security situation especially in the norther part of the the country, which unfortunately is also the poorest.

Besides, there is a strong link between education and income level as only 25 per cent of the poorest individuals are literate. The total public expenditure on health is only 0.8 per cent of GDP and less than three per cent of the total expenditure of federal and state governments on health

Even according to official figures, unemployment level in Nigeria is 33 per cent, which implies that the country’s economy is operating below its potential.

Nigeria lags far behind in the field of technology. Share of scientists and engineers in the labour force is only 0.2 per cent. Obviously, it is extremely difficult for development efforts to succeed in the face low level of technology.

As 2023 polls advances into its last ninety (90) days stretch before the 25 February and March 11 D-Day,issues around corruption and the like which had defined the last general elections,particularly in 2011 and 2019 are not occupying right and center in the campaign for next year’s general elections.

It is worth recalling that l had noted in a previous article published widely in the mass media in September,titled “Presidency 2023:A Contest Between Three ‘Sinners’? “, that all the presidential front runners,having served in public offices are alleged by most Nigerians to have been corrupt and therefore deemed as sinners by a generality of folks,but without proof as no court of law has convicted any of the eighteen(18) political party flag bearers.

And despite all the noises being made about fighting corruption by the incumbent government in the past seven and half (7+1/2) years of being in the saddle of governance from Aso Rock Villa,Abuja,a critical mass of Nigerians do not believe that anything good is coming from or can emanate from the much vaunted anti corruption fight which as far as they are concerned has fizzled out.

Evidently,combating graft in our country is no longer a big deal as the rate of corruption in public service has increased exponentially in the current dispensation. This sorry situation is not only in the estimation of ordinary Nigerians,but also a position validated by prominent international graft monitoring and rating agencies such as Transparency International,TI.

In the corruption tracking organization’s perception index of corruption in Nigeria released in January of this year,Nigeria ranked 154 out of 180 countries in the world in the year,2021.

That indicates that the rating for our country has dipped by five (5) points from between 2020 to 2021,which simply means corruption has gone from bad to worse in Nigeria.

Given the grim statistics,it would be surprising to ordinary folks,but not to pundits that corruption is not a significant campaign talking point in 2023 polls? And it is what it is basically because Nigerians appear to have become accustomed to graft being the present defining feature of public service.

And the relegation of corruption as a campaign issue is despite the fact that it has now been exposed that the monumental level of corruption in Nigeria is beyond what goes on in the Ministries,Departments and Agencies,MDAs via contract,splitting,padding and non-execution of contracts to outright dipping of filthy hands into the treasury of MDAs.

Take the case from the ministry of finance where the dismissed Accountant General of the Federation,AGF Ahmed Idris salted away N80 billion naira via fraudulent deductions by compromising the lntegrated Payroll and Personnel Information,IPPIS system which is supposed to be a bulwark against corruption.But he succeeded in stealing N16,000 monthly from every university lecturer enrolled in the salary payment system before he was caught.

Also consider the situation with the Niger Delta Development Corporation,NDDC which has been revealed as a cesspit of corruption for multiple scavengers pretending to be contractors that have been stealing trillions of naira set aside for intervention in the delta region which is the bread basket of Nigeria that has been highly despoiled by oil/gas explorers.
The former managing director of the Interim Management Committee,IMC,of NDDC,kemebradikumo Pondei was said to have misappropriated and therefore as to account for over N139 billion of the intervention agency’s funds missing between 2013 and 2018.

How can we forget the bilking of billions of naira in pension funds by Abdulrasheed Maina,who led the special task force set up by government to recover looted funds lost via mismanagement and ended up looting fourteen (N14b)billion naira which is part of the pension funds that as chairman of the fraud prevention task force,he ought to have recovered for government.

And the case of looters re-looting what was thought to have been recovered is not peculiar to maladministration of pension funds.
That is as evidenced by the investigation and sacking of the former anti corruption tzar of this administration,lbrahim Magu who as the chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission,EFCC got booted out following the report of the panel headed by former Appeal Court president,Justice Ayo Salami that investigated corruption charges brought against him by the Attorney General of the Federation,AGF and minister of Justice,Abubakar Malami.

The investigation according
to the CableNewsOnline found that Magu failed to remit N48 billion naira recovered from looters and abandoned 14 fraud cases involving N118 billion naira and $309 million dollars.

AGF,Malami also recently stated in the mass media that about one trillion naira has been recovered by anti corruption agencies from treasury looters.And the recovered sum has been applied in poverty alleviation activities. I presume that it would be via programs of government such as provision of meals for school children and payment of stipends to the poorest of the poor in our country which are activities under the purview of the ministry of humanitarian affairs.

Typical of the pervasiveness of corruption which has eastern deep into the fabric of our society,the apparent poor service delivery of the humanitarian affairs and disaster management ministry with Sadiya Umar Farouq as minister has also come under close scrutiny with stunning discovery of elements of corruption oozing out of it.

So,given the highlighted cases,corruption has more or less become a popular culture in Nigeria such that it appears not to be reprehensible any more that people entrusted with the responsibility to manage our assets for public good, brazenly engage in fraudulent practices in the management of the resources entrusted in their care.

That disposition stems from the fact that over the past few years,our fellow countrymen and women appear to have been benumbed by the sheer seize of corruption in the country,(which is very weighty and overwhelming)and they have therefore become sort of jinxed,jaded, attuned or accustomed to the culture of sleaze that is practically the norm rather than the exception in the polity.

Is it not astonishing that Nigerian senators have been regaled with ridiculous claims that termites ‘ate up’ vouchers containing expenditure of seventeen (N17) billion naira in National Social Insurance Trust Fund,NSITF as contained in 2018 audit report of the Office of the the Auditor General of the Government of the Federation,OAUGF?

In another instance in 2018,Nigerians were also assailed with the ludicrous claims that serpents also swallowed thirty six (N36m) of Joint Admissions and Matriculations Board,JAMB funds in the vault.That is money paid by Nigerian youths to enable them seat for examinations that would qualify them to get admitted into universities.

Just as most Nigerians thought they had heard the worst of the phantasmagoric tales of corruption in the management of public assets by those entrusted to curate them,a couple of months ago,the beleaguered and long suffering masses were exposed to a pandora box of sleaze in the oil/gas sector.

This time it was from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation,NNPC ltd,that against the run of play or popular opinion granted Ekpemulo Government,a.k.a Tompolo’s company a contract for the security of oil/gas assets in the Niger delta,which has turned out to be a major saving grace and turning point in the production and export of crude oil that is considered the life blood in the veins of our country and critical to the sustenance of its corporate existence.

It is heartening that when it matters most,a former militant has come to the rescue of Nigeria by shinning the light on the dark recesses of the niger delta where our country’s oil wealth which is our common patrimony was being willfully stolen by a few nefarious ambassadors.

Without doubt,the oil/gas assets security contract is a positive reference point or model in government and host communities collaboration in the best interest of our country that should be replicated in other parts of Nigeria like Gombe and Zamfara states where natural resources like gold, bauxite, uranium etc abound and organized criminals are having a field day stealing them.

Hitherto,it was estimated that as much as 80% of crude oil fed into the trans-forcados pipeline is stolen by crude oil thieves via illegal pipelines grafted into the main pipeline to the export terminal from which the product is siphoned into vessels and sold in the black market by organized crime syndicates.This is estimated in some quarters to amount to about $10 billion dollars loss to the nation’s treasury which is about 50% on the average of Nigeria’s external reserves.

Arising from such criminal activities that undermined our country’s ability and capacity to meet her 1.9m barrels a day quota by the Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries,OPEC,resulting in the shortage of foreign exchange inflow with attendant consequences on the treasury and near insolvency of our country,our country’s economy went into a tailspin as foreign exchange scarcity exacerbated the already high naira-dollar exchange rate.

With the discovery and plugging of the illegal crude crude oil taps where nearly 437,000 barrels were said to have been stolen on a daily basis,the management of NNPC ltd has stated that the nation is currently on track to meeting its OPEC quota and that would lead to improved foreign exchange inflow.

Hopefully the sanctity in oil/gas sector would be sustained and the sunken naira exchange rate against other currencies can be on a rebound to shore up our sagging economy.

And perhaps a similar initiative of assigning individuals and organizations with vast knowledge of the local terrain the task of protecting our highly valuable assets or resources like gold,uranium,bauxite etc,would be replicated in the northern parts of our country like Gombe and Zamfara states axis where they abound.

In addition to the existing no-fly-zone imposed over the skies in the natural metals rich zones by president Mohammadu Buhari earlier cited,a move to physically secure the minerals would save the nation further loss of income to those who are currently illegally mining and spiriting out of Nigeria our precious gemstones into Dubai etc with aircrafts that can land and take off from short tracks.

In fact it is amazing that all these aforementioned corrupt practices that amount to pillaging of our natural resources and the hemorrhaging of the country’s treasury that boil down to economic sabotage,which appear to be so unreal,therefore are what movies are made of in other climes,are happening in our country,yet Nigeria has not become a failed nation like Venezuela -an oil rich,but insolvent country.

In my estimation it is a miracle and a testimony to the resilience of Nigeria as a country and Nigerians as incredibly tenacious people.

The pretense to fighting corruption by this government is particularly gutting because pundits aver that what has been documented and in the public domain as having been stolen from the public treasury in the past decade certainly makes the previous records of stealing by public servants pale into nothing.But l will not delve into that aspect in this intervention ,as l only intend to only focus on activities leading to next year’s election viz-a-viz 2019.

In comparison,at this stage of campaigns for general elections in the past,particularly in 2011,2015 and 2019,accusations and counter accusations about the NNPC being the Automated Teller Machine,ATM of the government in power had filled the political space or attained stratospheric dimensions.

That unedifying experience that marked the electioneering processes of the past is currently not prevalent in the NNPC or any other MDAs that used to be the so called cash cows of incumbent governments such as Nigerian Ports Authority, NPA,Nigerian Maritime Administration Safety Agency,NlMASA,Nigerian Communications Corporation,NCC etc.

It is commendable that the above listed public institutions now appear to be free of such perfidy in light of the fact that the ruling APC seem to have devised a less brazen method of funding its political campaigns without dipping their hands into public treasury in the way that they did in the past.

Perhaps the high cost of procuring political office nomination forms by politicians which netted in a couple of billions of naira into the coffers of some of the political parties has helped.

Otherwise,a more ingenious method must have been introduced by the two main political parties,APC and PDP that have control of government at the centre and subnational levels raise funds for campaigns.

As for Labor Party,LP that is not in control of government at any level that could have generated funding for it,the only source of income available to it is largely from donations by party faithfuls,especially Nigerians in the diaspora.

In the case of New Nigeria National Party,NNPP whose source of funds is definitely not from government appointees,since it’s leader is currently not in government,it’s funding source has remained somewhat opaque and perhaps one of the reasons it’s campaign has not been as vibrant and dynamic as that of the other leading parties including LP which is getting a lot of diaspora funding.

So far,not even the resort to using the funds earmarked for the purchase of arms and ammunition for the military to
effectively prosecute the war against terrorism and banditry which is a crime that Goodluck Jonathan’s government was accused by the incumbent government of engaging in,(hence then National Security Adviser,NSA Sambo Dasuki was incarcerated for the better part of the first term of the outgoing government) has been an issue in the 2023 campaign.

It is rather fortuitous that the Independent National Electoral Commission,INEC has finally come out with political parties funding guidelines.
The amount of funds that can be applied by a candidate for presidential contest has been pegged at five (N5) billion naira and governorship election is capped at one (N1) billion naira.

Most importantly,the rule requires the parties to declare to INEC its sources of funds up to N50m from foreign sources.
To me,the rule is okay,but it does not go far enough as it did not require a candidate to disclose all sources of income,including funds sourced locally.

That could have enabled the tax authorities do their job better by identifying money bags and corporate bodies that might have been under stating their net worth to cheat on tax payments.

Remarkably,all of the above listed errant and deviant behaviors of public office holders which approximate to corrupt practices that imperil our country and jeopardize the chances of the critical mass of Nigerians getting out of poverty trap,are not the issues driving 2023 polls.

Apparently,Nigerians are weary of hearing that APC presidential flag bearer,Asiwaju of lagos,Bola Tinubu has a vice grip on Lagos state and his alleged firm,Alfa Beta has been collecting tax on behalf of the government and helping himself to a huge chunk of it.
That is largely because the allegation has been resolved in court in his favor,as such the claim remains unsubstantiated and hackneyed.

Similarly,the wild allegations against the PDP candidate,Waziri Adamawa,Atiku Abubakar that during the privatization of government corporations exercise under the watch of former president Olusegun Obasanjo,where he served as vice president,that he is corrupt or sold government assets to himself and his friends has also been unproven and therefore a mere conjecture in the fertile minds of the purveyors of such conspiracy theorists.
That is also owed to the fact that,strictly speaking,Atiku Abubakar has no corruption conviction against him in Nigeria or anywhere abroad,period!

The same applies to LP candidate mr Peter Obi who has not been fund wanting with respect to dipping his hands in the treasury during his stewardship as a two term governor of Anambra state.
And despite the claim in some quarters that Fidelity bank where he has a personal stake is one of the three banks where he saved $50m each on behalf of the state government and that he is one of those recently exposed as having undisclosed offshore bank accounts in international safe havens,as revealed in the Panama Papers scandal,Obi was already a self made billionaire retail goods trader before dabbling into politics.

By the same token,Dr Musa Kwakwanso of NNPP who has also served as two terms governor,minister and senator is also deemed to be unencumbered by corruption charges.
Although he was charged to court by the EFFC on allegations that he was involved in corrupt practices during his term as governor of Kano state,he too currently remains unencumbered by any corruption conviction,otherwise he would not be on the ballot.

Given that Nigerians appear to have become used to or accepted corruption as part of the DNA of their country,it is understandable why it would be feckless for the malaise of corruption to be the driving force of the campaigns to win over the hearts and minds of the electorate by the demagogues as February 25 date for the presidential ballot and March 11 governorship polls draws closer.

Having said that,it is rather striking,stunning and scary at the same time that what would make or mar 2023 polls is the weaponization of fake news for political gains and violence by members of opposing political parties-particularly the traditional parties,APC,PDP and to a less extent,LP, and NNPP.

Take for instance when the PDP launched its campaign in Uyo,Akwa lbom state capital.’Obi kekerenke’ was reported to have been the sing song in a corner of the venue.
Reportedly,Obidients were taunting PDP supporters.
Although it has been debunked as fake news,imagine the provocation it might have generated if it were to be the reality?

However,a real breach of peace occurred in Maiduguri,Borno state to the PDP and its presidential candidate,Atiku Abubakar.

In the cause of campaigning in kano in the north,the APC presidential candidate Bola Tinubu was also reportedly harassed by opposition party members.

In like manner,Peter Obi and LP have also been victims of harassment by other party members in a couple of campaign locations.

Very concerning is the videos footages in the social media that indicated that someone was even reportedly apprehended with a knife as he was standing in a path where mr Obi was to pass through during one of the rallies.

Given how a flag bearer in Pakistan,Imran Khan who is the former prime minister was viciously attacked via a gun shot to his leg during a campaign rally as recent as 3rd November,the preachments to party members in Nigeria to tone down the rhetorics of hate and violence cannot be overemphasized.

It may also be recalled that in July this year,former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe died from gunshot wounds during a political campaign event.

Before then,in 2007 to be specific,Benazir Bhutto of Pakistani was also assassinated after an election campaign activity.

With regards to physical clash between rival parties,l am yet to read or hear of falities,but destruction of INEC’s assets nationwide has been legion.

As we advance towards 2023 general elections,it is unfortunate that about twenty four (24) precious Nigerian lives have been lost in unfortunate deadly incidents of election violence.
That is as reportedly revealed by the National Security Adviser,NSA,Babagana Mongonu.

Hopefully,the 2023 electioneering process would not descend into the sort of orgy of violent destruction that happened in south-west Nigeria in the lbadan axis in the nascent stages of our practice of democratic governance tagged ‘operation wetie’-an euphemism for dousing political opponents with petrol before setting the fellow human being ablaze.
That barbaric act earned the zone the infamous epithet, Wild,Wild,West in the early 1960s.

Now,the authorities(government and non-governmental) charged with preventing violence amongst politicians to ensure that the conduct of peaceful campaigns are achieved in 2023 polls,must not only bark but bite in order to avoid what seems like a disaster waiting to happen,if the apparent violent tendencies of fanatical party supporters are not reined in.

The second and probably most potent and looming threat to 2023 polls which is fake news is even more risky to lovers of peace than the physical brawl that could be instigated via taunting by fanatical supporters earlier outlined.
That is because it is fake news owing to it’s ubiquitous nature that triggers and sustains violent clashes between party supporters.

Take for instance the fake letter purportedly written by INEC stating that APC candidate Tinubu is being investigated by the election regulatory agency based on the court report about Tinubu’s alleged indictment in Chicago, USA court on narcotics charges.

Until INEC came out to disown the letter, the falsehood was gaining currency and who knows what type of reaction from APC supporters it could have triggered?

That is on top of the numerous trolls about Tinubu’s academic qualifications and questions about his ancestry which had been trending online.

Also,a trending video of the endorsement of LP candidate Obi by international celebrities in other climes is another sort of fake news that is negatively affecting the 2023 polls.

That is amongst many other falsehoods promoting the candidacy of Obi and peddling of lies about the opposing candidates that have practically seized the social media space.

Although these unwholesome acts may not be with the consent of mr Obi and his campaign council,l have had cause in the past to caution and reprimand Obidients-LP devoted supporters to thread with more caution in the article earlier referenced because their unwholesome practice of manipulating video or facts to promote their principal and disparage his opponents may hurt rather than help Obi.

The caution is simply underscored by the basic fact that sooner or later,fact checking would be conducted and the truth would prevail,thereafter voters may develop skepticism about Obi’s candidacy.

Equally of concern is the mindset of some Obidients that,even when the political mathematics don’t add up,if Peter Obi is not declared the winner in the February 25,2023 contest after the balloting,it would be that he was rigged out.
Does that not suggest that the crisis of ejection deniers intending to upend our democracy may be in the horizon?

Nursing and peddling such outrageous notion may lead to unnecessary and damning post election consequences, hence it is imperative that we should all be weaned of such incendiary thought process in order to nip in the bud,discard and eradicate such sense of denial from the minds of those that are toying with it.

Since the internet and social media are unmanaged space,but they remain the most effective communication platforms, Nigerian authorities,particularly INEC and security agencies must workout a formula to rein in fake news purveyors either via persuasion,’moral-suation’ or sanction that should be fashioned or hashed out sooner than later.

The aforementioned pact between political parties,especially presidential candidates with civil society organizations compelling them not to engage in violence or rhetorics that could engender hatred between members of opposing political parties,should be replicated in the social media space.

As a matter of urgency,civil society organizations such as the one led by former military head of state,General Abdulsalami Abubakar and Bishop Hassan Mathew Kukah on non-violence by politicians should be expanded into the social media space or replicated.

The necessity and urgency of the intervention is underscored by the fact that fake news currently symbolizes, represents and embodies the greatest threat to peaceful elections next year as it has assumed the dimension of a ticking time bomb or can be said to be like a keg of gunpowder that our country is seating on,if the nefarious ambassadors are allowed to continue to ride roughshod with Nigerians with their reckless predilections with fake news as the 2023 polls draws nearer.

To be explicit,the potency of fake news is evident in the violence that led to Tutsi and Hutus self annihilation cauldron that boiled over in Rwanda in 1994 during which between 500 to 800 lives are believed to have been lost. So also is the post election violence that ensued between the supporters of Raila Odinga and Uhuru kenyata in the East African country,Kenya in 2007,which resulted in the death of 1300 Kenyans in the aftermath of the bloody confrontation.

It is worth pointing out that the aforementioned conflicts that had horrific and devastating consequences in the referenced countries were triggered by reckless and fake rhetorics in the mass media.

As opposed to abusing the massive opportunities offered by the social media to grow our nascent democracy as were the cases in Rwanda and Kenya,I would like to recommend that Nigerians take to heart the following recommendation by former US president Donald Trump’s ex chief of staff,General Kelly who made the remark about the qualities that Americans should look out for in choosing their president:
“We need to look infinitely harder at who we elect to any office in our land.
At the office seeker’s character,at their morals, at their ethical record,their integrity, their honesty,their flaws,what they have said about women and minorities,why they are asking to serve in public office in the first place,and only then consider the policies they espouse.”

In addition to General Kelly’s recommended value proposition or criteria for choosing whoever is aspiring for the office of the president of the USA,the sensitivity of public office seekers in Nigeria to ethnic and religious differences that have been magnified in the last decade should also be focused on,especially for those seeking to be president.

The ongoing consultations that non political,regional,ethnic and religious groups such as Arewa Consultative forum,Ohaneze Ndigbo and Christian Association of Nigeria,CAN are having with presidential standard bearers of the main political parties,as well as the efforts of media organizations like the Thisday/AriseTv group in organizing town hall meetings to interrogate the policies and programs of the candidates that have agreed to participate,are quite encouraging.

Nevertheless,more needs to be done to eliminate the clear and present dangers of fake news in our body polity.

While the new rules to mitigate fake news are being processed or prepared,public office seekers in our beloved country and their supporters should make the substance of their manifestoes their talking points and be careful not to throw caution to the winds by resorting to the use of fake news as a political weapon as we approach this very consequential process of recruiting those that would be our new leaders via 2023 polls.

Magnus onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
To continue with this conversation,pls visit www.magnum.ng

I am of the conviction that no pundit had envisaged that the current chasm in the Peoples Democratic Party,PDP would grow from a mere rift into a crisis of the monumental dimension that it has assumed.

Usually,after party primaries that are often rancorous after being bitterly fought,healing balms are applied on bruised egos.

But it would appear as if the PDP has been bucking the trend since 2011 after Goodluck Jonathan won the presidency and the aggrieved members broke ranks with the leadership of the party resulting in the trouncing of the party in 2015.

The assertion above is underscored by the fact that the level of attrition and acrimony currently existing in the main opposition party was uncommon in the history of Nigerian politics until it popped up in the PDP between 2011 and 15.

That is when a coalition of five (5) opposition parties-CPC,ACN,ANPP and APGA,including a splinter group from the ruling party that branded itself -nPDP in cahoot with the opposition party unseated then ruling PDP from Aso Rock Villa seat of presidential power.

Although in 2019 the party managed to remain together after the primaries held in Portharcourt Rivers state where the governor,Nyesom Wike who became the chief financier of the party was doggedly fighting for the emergence of Aminu Tambuwal,current governor of Sokoto state as the party’s presidential flag bearer in a fierce contest that was eventually won by current presidential candidate of the party,Turaki Atiku Abubakar,(aided by the infamous ‘kaduna mafia’)the fractured bones and cracked skulls from that epic dwell were quickly mended.

Curiously,the fall out from the party’s primaries in 2019 was not allowed to metastasize in the manner that the 2023 general elections primaries for the party to recruit political leaders in the next election has been allowed to degenerate into a very dangerous dimension.

So,what is going on,and better still,what political fundamentals and dynamics are currently in play or might have gone askew?

Is the fact that it was five (5) opposition parties that collapsed into one party-All Progressives Party,APC to oust then ruling party in 2015,and currently another five(5) furious governors are badly jeopardizing the chances of the PDP returning to Aso Rock Villa in 2023 an ominous sign ?
And is the constant occurrence of the number five (5) in the misfortune of PDP a significant malaise ?

If it is,would the building of a coalition of opposition political forces featuring Musa Kwakwanso’s New Nigeria Peoples Party NNPP,Chukwuma Soludo’s All Progressives Grand Alliance , APGA,Dumebi Kachikwu’s,Africa Democratic Congress,ADC,Omoyele Sowore’s African Action Congress,AAC and Adewole Adebayo’s Social Democratic Party,SDP or even Chris Okotie’s Fresh Democratic Party be the cure or panacea to the PDP bogey or jinx with the number five (5)?

For instance,I believe that Dr Kwakwanso’s NNPP is open for dialogue towards reaching an agreement for a coalition.
The fact that his party actually initially negotiated with the Labour Party,LP to join forces but could not get to a yes,and a recent comment by the Presidential candidate of the party that becoming president of Nigeria is not a do-or-die affair to him,l am inclined to believe that he may be open to negotiation.

And why not?

Although NNPP has been recently revealed as fielding the next highest number of candidates for all the political offices after the ruling APC and main opposition,PDP,it is clear to even the uninitiated in politics that both the party and is presidential candidate have zero chance of taking over Aso Rock Villa after president Mohammadu Buhari exits office on May 29,2023.

That is quite unlike the LP, which despite all the odds stacked against it and which makes its ambition to be the party calling the shots from the presidential Villa in 2023 more like a vaulting ambition than a realizable one,Kwakwanso with his NNPP is obviously not deluding himself or fantasizing about succeeding president Buhari in Aso Rock Villa.
Before proceeding further, l would like to crave the indulgence of readers to allow me deviate a bit to extol the virtues of Peter Obi and his team that infused life into the political grave bound LP until about six (6)months ago when it evolved into a high flying political party. And l would also like to credit him for igniting the interest of erstwhile politically dormant youths,who were at best engaged as political thugs.Today,the youths surge in politics ignited by Obi has generated over ten (10) million new voters which is a significant addition to the number of registered voters in Nigeria that was only a little above eighty (80) million in 2019 and which is currently ninety three (93m) million that the Independent National Electoral Commission,INEC has informed us would be be expected to cast their ballots to determine who our next set of political leaders would be from 2023.

Of course,giving credit to Obi’s movement for rallying our youth force is not discountenancing the critical role played by the National Assembly,NASS and the presidency for the electoral reform exercise carried out in 2022 via the new electoral act 2022 that has codified the introduction of the use of electronic transfer of election results to INEC database from the polling booths,the use of Electronic Biometric Verification System,BVAS etc,all of which have played critical roles in bringing fidelity into the electoral process hence more Nigerians decided to take the civic responsibility of voting more seriously.

Also,it must be put on record that it is Obi and LP that have pioneered in Nigeria (in the course of this election season) the concept of party members collectively funding it via donations and contributions from members and well wishers.

Before now,it was an anathema that members that are none government appointees would be funding a party over a long period.
The alternative used to be that money bags would form and fund the party.
If it fails to make significant impact in producing a president,governors,or members of the legislature in a relatively short period soon after its formation,it gets atrophied largely due to lack of funding.

So,traditionally sustainable funding for parties comes from the coffers of government via its appointees into public trust positions and money bags/godfathers not party members.
In fact the tradition is that party supporters expect and receive money from politicians seeking to get elected into public offices.

But funding for the LP is currently not based on the old template.
Rather the the LP has adopted a type of GoFundMe financial model that is a sort of crowd funding practiced in the private sector and basically what obtains in matured democracies like the the United Kingdom, UK and United States of America,USA.
That seems to be the method adopted by Peter Obi and the Obedient/OBIDATTI movement in the current dispensation, which is commendable.

It is indeed a novelty which hopefully may be adopted by other parties when they register their members in the coming dispensation.

And the impressively welcome phenomenon of funding of political parties by members is being championed by Nigerians in the diaspora who are presently disenfranchised by the current electoral system that does not permit diaspora voting in general elections.
Hopefully,the need to get Nigerians in the diaspora into a voting force would be part of the corrections that should be made in the electoral process the next time it is reviewed in the nearest future.

Incidentally,apart from the salutary improvements that the electoral act 2022 has had on the electoral system in Nigeria, there is another interesting model that might positively change the course of politics in Nigeria.
And that is party members registration initiative that has been introduced by the ruling APC,but it is yet to be fully consummated.

Circling back to Kwakwanso and NNPP outlook as the beautiful bride waiting for a willing and capable suitor,he and his party may be disposed to doing the most pragmatic thing to remain relevant politically,which is going into partnership with a party that it considers as having a very good chance to win.
And that would be the main opposition party,PDP which is not going to be facing a referendum like the ruling APC under whose watch Nigerian masses are suffering the most.
Therefore,the electorate may be very resentful of the party responsible for their present misery and its candidates and would punish it at the polls.
That is all things being equal.

Adjunct to that is the fact that NNPP which is in infancy needs to grow organically as opposed to merging with another or other parties,so it would prefer being a coalition partner that would enhance its capacity to remain on course for future electoral contests.

Another scenario is that if the new party decides to remain standing on its own,it would be risking going into extinction before the next election circle in 2027 by running out of steam due to lack of funding as the pockets of its founder and driver may become empty.

So,my guess is that NNPP would as it were be anxiously scanning the environment for suitors and PDP should no longer tarry in taking the bait.

Since all the other parties that l earlier listed as potential candidates for partnership with PDP share similar characteristics with NNPP in terms of survivability without being in power and not being funded by a money bag with very deep pockets,of which Kwakwanso and other backers of the respective parties are not,it may appear pedantic repeating the same narrative or singing similar refrain about their being beautiful brides waiting to be wooed by parties that have the means.

To put things in proper context,what l am proposing for the political system is akin to the banking sector consolidation policy that saw about one hundred(100) banks coalesce into less than twenty five (25)banks about ten (10 )years ago in our country. The big parties should build coalition with the smaller parties and not merge which is the model adopted to birth APC in 2013/15.

Given the scenario painted above ,one thing that is still puzzling to me is that since the smaller parties are all brides,why is the current main opposition PDP hesitant to do to the present ruling APC,what as an opposition party in 2013/15,it did to then ruling PDP by giving it a mortal blow when it rallied five (5)political parties to collapse into APC as a Special Purpose Vehicle,SPV used to topple then ruling party,PDP?

Returning to the issue of the divisive war raging in the PDP,readers should please allow me offer a window into the origin of the discontent emanating from the Furious Five (5) or if you like Famous Five(5) governors by providing some insights into how consistent perfidy or injustice to a people or a person can develop into resentment,then escalate into incipient bitterness before blowing out into full scale crisis with high potency to kill a hitherto thriving party.

As earlier observed,one of the reasons smaller parties tend to go into coalition and become part of the wining party is that it is too expensive to run a party if the members are not part of the government as such they may not have the means of sustenance.
As a consequence,such mushroom parties tend to die quickly or may remain permanently dwarf.

Take for instance the Fresh Party led by Chris Okotie or the political movement that was birthed by Tunde Bakare,both of whom are clergymen.
Okotie’s party has barely been surviving and even Bakare’s movement might have been asphyxiated owing to lack of funding support to sustain them even though both Okotie and Bakare might have made the foray into politics with church money generated via the collective efforts of members of their respective flocks.

Another typical case in point of a party that got starved of funds and was on the verge of basically losing direction is the PDP.
Until it was practically rescued through the benevolence of a state governor that has the financial muscle,it was literally withering after it lost power at the centre in 2015.

As it may be recalled,after it’s defeat by the APC coalition in 2015,PDP,the once bubbly party that was awash with cash since 1999 when it mounted the leadership throne in Aso Rock Villa,could hardly afford to sustain itself until oil rich Rivers state governor,Nyesom Wike came to its rescue.

And as the saying goes: He Who Pays The Piper Dictates The Tune.
Hence the party was basically at the beck and call of the Rivers state governor.

In any case ,the situation is not really dissimilar to what obtained with the APC that was also reportedly given a life line by mr Rotimi Amaechi,governor of Rivers state when the party was also literally gasping for breathe in 2013/15.

As it may be recalled,Amaechi a former chieftain of the PDP moved from PDP to APC to give it the oxygen that it needed (financial support and national outlook ) which enabled it spread it’s tentacles nation wide hence it was able to campaign vigorously with Amaechi as the Director General of the campaign organization that eventually facilitated the APC winning the presidential election in 2015.

It is ominous that the jumping out of the boat by Amaechi and other PDP stalwarts was precipitated by a disagreement that lead to a cataclysmic fracture of then ruling party,PDP culminating into a significant chunk of the heavy weights flipping camps.

So by and large,the oil rich Rivers state money and to a lesser extent lagos state money since the days Asiwaju Bola Tinubu,through Babatunde Fashola till date have been sustaining political parties in Nigeria,(PDP,AD,ACN,APC) particularly since the return of multi party democracy in 1999.

Arising from the assertions above,should readers continue to search for the reasons that ex governors of Rivers and Lagos states that are reportedly the agent provocateurs for the bolstering of the struggling opposition parties have been seeking to become the next president of Nigeria when it is self evident?

Also ,although it is not obvious to most pundits,past governors of Rivers and Lagos states have been rewarded for providing financial muscle to the current ruling party.

Is it not remarkable that Rotimi Amaechi was the minister Incharge of Transport and Aviation portfolio in 2015,before aviation was separated from his supervision and Babatunde Fashola also had control of the Works and Housing ministry as its minister in 2015,m prior to Housing ministry being hived or decoupled from his purview,
and both of the heads of the aforementioned lucrative and powerful ministries were once upon a time governors of Rivers and Lagos states respectively ?

In the light of the above,Nigerians can also decipher the origin,and if you like,justification for the feeling of entitlement to becoming president of Nigeria by the past and present governors of Rivers state,beginning from Dr Peter Odilli (1999-2007),Mr Rotimi Amaechi (2007-2015) to Barrister Nyesom Wike(2015 till date) who have been instrumental to the sustenance of both the former ruling party,PDP and current ruling party,APC.

Ditto for Bola Tinubu,ex lagos state governor who sustained the party which morphed from Alliance for Democracy,AD to Action Congress AC and Action Congress of Nigeria ACN before finally blending with the quadruplet earlier listed to form APC-a platform with which he is presently seeking to become president of Nigeria in 2023.

For Wike,in my reckoning,the continued flow of bile of disappointment into his mouth is the double whammy let down that he has received from the PDP. That is basically what is firing him up.

And that may be because he believes he was not only robbed of victory in his quest towards becoming PDP’s presidential candidate for 2023 by the party chairman,senator Iyiorcha Ayu who he is accusing of conniving with Sokoto governor Aminu Tambuwal to collapse his votes into that of Atiku Abubakar’s;worse still,he is gripping that he was also sidelined by not being given the option of becoming the running mate to the presidential candidate,Turaki Atiku Abubakar.

So by and large,after the messy process that first threw him up for the presidency and instead of him landing on the throne in Aso Rock Villa,he was literally flung under the bus with ignominy by being ditched a second time as the Vice President slot was given to Delta state governor,Ifeanyi Okowa instead of him.

Although the other aforementioned victims of presidential attempts and failures of Rivers state extraction such as Peter Odilli and Rotimi Amaechi have taken the loss in their strides,Wike,fiery by nature,has opted not to acquiesce with what can best be described as the political ‘use and dumb’ syndrome afflicting the good people of Rivers state.

That is why he is kicking up the storm with the intent to inflict a hurricane-like damage on PDP.

And he has found partners in four (4) other governors- Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia state,lfeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu state, Emmanuel Ortom of Benue state as well as Seyi Makinde of Oyo state.

Although they are unified in their anger against their party,their grievances are not of the same hue with Wike’s.

The four (4) governors in my assessment are rebelling against their party because they are having a feeling that the south being shortchanged,if not cancelled out in the scheme of things within the PDP.
And they have a point which the party can not afford to dismiss with a wave of the hand or postpone.

The collaborating governors,in my view are lamenting the fact that the south that used to pride itself as the PDP’s political base is being emasculated by virtue of its currently having its chairman from the north,presidential candidate from the north and campaign director general also from the north.

It is an abnormality which is being deemed as the south being of no significance in the emerging political ecosystem of our beloved country.

The only ethnic or regional party that resisted merging with five (5) opposition parties in 2013/14 (although a significant portion was hived off) is APGA which has an lgbo sociocultural identity.
Another party that escaped the political eclipse is senator Ifeanyi Uba’s Young Progressive Party,YPP which is also an lgbo based party.
Its survival stems from the fact that it is being sustained by the oil tycoon who has a very deep pocket.

To a much less degree,the PRP with a proclivity towards the Hausa/Fulani tribe that is anchored in kano the heartland of the north is also in the category of party that did not join the 2013/14 coalition. When you add NNPP, it would be clear that the lgbos have two regional/ethnic parties-APGA and YPP while the Hausa/Fulani can also boost of two -PRP and NNPP.
It is rather curious that,although Afenifere -the Yoruba sociocultural group is very powerful like the Arewa in the north and Ohaneze in the east which are its equivalent,for now unlike their Hausa /Fulani and lgbo counterparts,the Yorubas have no ethnic or regional based party.

While APGA currently has Chukwuma Soludo,Anambra state governor as the wind beneath its sail,(a duty he inherited from Peter Obi and Willie Obiano past governors of Anambra state) hence it is still thriving,unfortunately PRP do not have the such luxury luxury of having a seating governor or elected public officer as a member.

So the party was tottering on the brinks of collapse,except now that things may be looking up for it as Kola Abiola has emerged as its 2023 presidential candidate.

Incidentally,the only major ethnic group that has no regional party now is the Yoruba nation which is perhaps due to its unsuccessful experiment with ethnic parties UPN ,AD,ACN that prevented the Yorubas from ruling the roost on the national stage until the emergence of Olusegun Obasanjo as president in 1999 on the platform of PDP which is a pan Nigeria party.

But given the present wrangling in the PDP bothering on the betrayal of the Goose That Lays The Golden Eggs,and regional/ethnic identity supremacy battle wreaking the havoc that is capable of tearing the party apart,l will not be surprised if after 2023 general elections,more regional and ethnic political parties re-emerge as the regions resolve to hold on to their local territories rather than cede them to a rampaging hegemony.

That is my current reading of the tea leaves with respect to politics in Nigeria.

The good news is that the storm that precipitated the dark clouds over the PDP can still be cleared as it has become apparent that the Furious Five (5) are open to reconciliation with the mother party.

With the presidential election barely over 100 days away,the main party in opposition PDP, is racing against time and it must take reconciliatory measures to reunite itself with the aggrieved members much more seriously and urgently.

Let nobody be under the illusion that the Furious Five (5) have no capacity to transform into Five Undertakers of the PDP.

If the harsh utterances from some members of the Furious Five (5), particularly Wike and Ortom that have been recorded in videos that have gone viral in which they were issuing vile comments about the PDP presidential candidate Turaki Atiku Abubakar or seen hobnobbing with members of the opposite parties are taken into consideration,then the path to Aso Rock Villa for the PDP may be very rough.

My prayer is that the type of ill will that blew in its direction resulting in the misfortune of its inability to clinch the presidency in 2015 and 2019 would not befall the PDP once again.

In the sad event that such a misfortune occurs,a post mortem to identify the poison that killed the party would easily reveal that it is basically the pride of not stooping to conquer when it was the efficacious antidote to an identified poison,that nailed its death coffin.

As the saying goes ,pride goes after a fall.
And my prayer is: may such calamity not be the lot of the PDP.

Magnus onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
To continue with this conversation,pls visit www.magnum.ng

“Midway upon the journey of our life I found myself within a forest dark, For the straightforward pathway had been lost.”

— Dante

Nigerians find themselves once again in familiar territory – on the cusp of yet another economic crisis. While the country has endured frequent balance of payments-induced crises in the past, this one is different. To understand what is different about the current crisis, one needs to revisit the typology of economic crises.

While economic crises come in many forms, broadly, they fall into four categories: currency crises, ‘sudden stops’ (related to disruption in external capital inflows or sudden outflows), and debt and banking crises. In terms of taxonomy, these types are generally referred to as ‘financial crises.’ The triggers for these crises are either exogenous shocks or endogenous policy excesses. The term trade shock is an example of the former and refers to a collapse of export prices or a sustained surge in import prices faced by an economy – as experienced by many import-dependent developing countries in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Crises resulting from sudden stops are usually cau­sed by a flight-to-safety of internationally invested capital in response to the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates. A debt crisis results from an inability to service (usually external) debt obligations due to falling foreign exchange reserves about debt servicing, while a banking crisis emanates from systemic failures in a country’s banking sector.

Although there can be, and usually are, overlaps between the four types of crises, with a crisis initially starting as one type and then morphing into another, Nigeria’s external account crisis episodes can generally be traced to large external trade imbalances caused invariably by policy settings being too lax, leading to ‘overheating’ in the economy. Large fiscal deficits and/or excessive credit and money creation have often been to blame for this type of crisis. However, in recent years, there were two episodes when Nigeria faced a balance of payments stress due to terms of trade shock as well as a ‘sudden stop’ caused by the US Fed tightening monetary policy.

What makes the current crisis unique in Nigeria’s recent history, is that the impending crisis ticks all the boxes (barring, for now, a banking crisis); the external account is under pressure due to a combination of import prices having spiked sharply lately, as well as too-accommodative domestic policy settings. The US Federal Reserve has begun a sharp course correction by raising interest rates, which will impact the availability as well as pricing of external private capital available to countries like Nigeria. And Nigeria’s external debt repayments profile is markedly elevated for the next few years. The resulting gross external financing requirement is pretty much unsustainable.

The path of the crisis and its implications are going to be fairly similar to what was experienced in the early years of President Muhammadu Buhari-led administration, with one crucial difference – severity. The magnitude of this crisis is, unfortunately, likely to be unprecedented. The confluence of pressures from several fronts, amid a world in turmoil, has already taken its toll on several vulnerable developed and emerging markets, and Nigeria is unlikely going to be an exception. Hence, the need for much greater agility in course correction in policy settings than is currently shown.

One hopes that the next Nigerian president won’t be one with legitimacy as well as credibility issues, that will impede the whole-of-nation response that the probable economic crisis of this magnitude demands. Facing the real possibility of a popular movement against it, and heading into a general election soon, will blunt any impulse for meaningful reforms the present administration thinks it is implementing.

Under these circumstances, what needs to be done? The short-term impulse of arranging external financing while avoiding course correction (what Paul Krugman termed “over-financing and under-adjustment”) needs to be avoided. The correction of the excesses in the policy mix should have started and is past due.

For a more durable recovery, Nigerians must canvass for free and fair elections that will usher in a legitimate government with a fresh mandate come May 29, 2023. This is because the country at this point needs a strong government that reflects the will of a majority of its citizens to be able to institute the difficult road to economic recovery. The anchor of the recovery roadmap should be a clear and comprehensive plan for institutional and structural reforms. This plan should be formulated by a high-powered ‘committee’ under the elected president, which should also be entrusted with overseeing implementation.

The ‘committee’ should not be constituted on the template of the various economic advisory councils formed in the past. A major difference should be that it should not consist of businessmen or just a small group of economists. It should bring into service an eclectic group of professionals, including inter alia practitioners in change management, organisational design and development, organisational and behavioural psychology, and systems thinkers, among others, to formulate and oversee plans for the restructuring, not just the political economy, but also the entire government and civil service, state-owned enterprises, public financial management, institutions of economic governance (The Central Bank of Nigeria, FIRS, Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget Office of the Federation, the Securities & Exchange Commission, etc), and the major sectors of the economy such as exports, agriculture and industry.

This is a long road to recovery with no ‘silver bullets’ or shortcuts. Without a grand design for institutional and structural reforms, as well as an overhaul of its governance model, Nigeria may slip further into an economic and political morass income in 2023 and beyond.

It is yet another 1st of October. For 62 years, ‘most’ Nigerian roll out their drum to celebrate our dear country’s Independence Day anniversary, and today is not an exception.

While some people are optimistic about the future of the country, others are pessimistic. For me, I am neither of the two. I prefer to be a realist or what some people might term a pragmatist. I see things as they are by reflecting on how we got here and what we can do or should have done better.

In essence, rather than see the glass as half full or half empty, I prefer to see a glass that can be filled and wonder why it hasn’t been filled by the groups that either see the glass as half empty or half full.

One of the challenges confronting us as a country after 62 years of ‘NATIONHOOD’ is that of the inability of our leaders, knowingly or unknowingly, to promote or address the SOCIAL INJUSTICE in our SOCIETY. There is evidence that lack of social justice is responsible for most, if not all of Nigeria’s woes – poverty, inequalities, insecurity, lack of patriotism, corruption, unemployment and above all our state of DEVELOPMENT.

So, what is SOCIAL JUSTICE? Perhaps a thought experiment by economist and social philosopher Amartya Sen, in his book “The Idea of Justice” can help us flesh out this abstract concept.

THIS IS THE SCENARIO:

You are the President of Nigeria or an an authority figure and you come across three children (3 states one each from the North, South West and South East) – Amina, Bola and Chinyere – fighting over a flute (national resources, resource control, VAT, etc). The trio cannot decide who gets the flute and so you want (have) to decide for them. One by one, they make their respective cases for you.

Amina says: “I should get the flute. I’m the only one here who can play it. And after all, the point of the flute is to make music. The other two can’t play, so why should they get it?”

Then, Bola says: “I made the flute. I provided the materials for it. I spent time and effort making it. It is the fruit of my labour. How could you possibly take this from me and give it to someone else?”

Finally, Chinyere says: “Of the three of us, I am the poorest. I have nothing in this world. Even though I don’t play the flute and I didn’t make it, you should give me the flute. Because, then, you would have improved my lot in life immeasurably.”

Which child (State) you give the flute to, and the reasons and qualifications behind your decision, says a lot about how you define or see social justice and fairness.

You can assign the flute only to a single child (state). Sharing the flute is not an option, nor is selling it and splitting the proceeds.

I can imagine that if you are or were a pragmatic leader, you would give the flute to Amina. Meaning that you would be compelled by utilitarian logic to match the flute (“resources”) to the flautist (“talent”). You might even go further to justify this on the grounds of efficiency, and by saying that social welfare is maximized because everyone, including Bola and Chinyere, gets to enjoy the music.

I can also imagine you giving the flute to Bola because it resonates with your dominant narrative of meritocracy and deserved reward. After all, Bola’s case – using the language of desert and entitlement – rests on the notion that the flute is naturally hers, and that it is wrong to dispossess her of it for whatever reason.

What of Chinyere? Alas, Chinyere rather inconveniently puts some of you, and indeed most Nigerian leaders in unfamiliar and uncomfortable territory.

Two years ago, I adapted this thought experiment for the NATION BUILDING training program for an Abuja-based CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANISATION. When I ran this experiment, the majority of participants did not give the flute to Chinyere. The reasons typically given are that it creates moral hazard and a culture of dependency, that it is a waste of resources (the utilitarian argument), and that it is unacceptable to deprive someone (Bola) who merits the flute through effort (the meritocracy argument).

Furthermore, those who reject Chinyere also start to “fill in the gaps” in the story -for example, by saying that Chinyere must have been lazy and hence deserved her lot in life. Very quickly, the platitudes like “give a man a fish and he eats for a day, but teach a man to fish and he eats for a lifetime” are uttered.

Some participants, though, catch on very quickly, and they start to distinguish the “house view” they feel prompted to hold, which leads them down the paths of utilitarianism and meritocracy, onto the arguably more compassionate choice of giving the flute to Chinyere.

As one participant put it:  As a public servant, I should give the flute to either Amina or Bola. But as a human being, I would rather Chinyere have it.” As if public policy enterprise, or even the Nigerian condition generally, requires that we suspend our humanity and compassion, and opt for utilitarianism or meritocracy

Now, of course, the reality is far more complex than this thought experiment. Over the past 61 years, Nigeria has had more than that one flute to give out, though she is accustomed to always assigning the flute in a particular way rather than being governed by an uneven blend of utilitarianism, meritocracy or egalitarianism; an approach that has helped widen our fault lines and made some Nigerian to resent the state.

Anyway, the point of Sen’s experiment, however contrived, is to make explicit our biases in national discourse (or moral reasoning, if we prefer), so that we can unpack that blend of logic that governs our allocation decisions, and openly debate why one particular logic dominates rather than others if indeed we want to build a Nigeria where peace and unity reigns.

This thought experiment asks us – if there is a chance we turn out to be disadvantaged by our default choice, would we still make that choice?

Nation building is not simply an isolation exercise, but that of transformational leadership and good governance. Similarly, public policy is more than assigning funds to various policies or programmes, but rather the social injustices that are addressed. Meaning that what leaders do, why and when, should speak to how they think and act on the fairness of opportunities and outcomes.

On a final note, as we approach the 2023 general election, it will be nice to see citizens electing politicians who can, without hesitation convince them which child they will give the flute to and why.

God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria

Happy Independence!!!