Economy

I remember that day in 2011 when world population was said to have hit 7 billion. I was passing the lobby of the Transcorp Hilton Hotel and the TV at the reception was on BBC Channel. I paused to listen to the momentous news before moving on to the nearby bank. The BBC reporter was in Accra’s Agbogbloshie market, and the camera would zoom in and out on black pregnant women as the reporter ran commentary about how the world population had exploded and all the dangers that came with that.  I found it very distasteful that they would choose to locate their news coverage in Africa and then focus on pregnant black women. The general gist that the BBC was silently passing across to the world was that black people were the ones populating the world indiscriminately.

Nigeria is the biggest culprit in Africa, and these days, we put our population at around 220 million. Nigeria’s population growth rate is put at around 2.6% – 3%, and the other day some global body put out the statistics that Nigeria’s population will hit 500 million by the year 2050. The general idea out there is that all we do is procreate in this country, and we have not put out any counter-narrative to this effect. We sort of just assume that ‘up north’ they are having so many children. But chances are that our women are a lot more educated today and are having fewer children per head, and the economic situation is also preventing so many men from having so many, north or south. The overall figure that we declare is certainly contaminated with our politics of prebendalism and patronage, whereby politicians find ways to inflate the population of their constituencies because that also enables them to collect larger allocations from the federal government, among other undue advantages. We certainly aren’t given to a high level of veracity in our public accounting…at least not yet. There is therefore a reason to look at these figures more intently.

This is more so as Nigeria is supposed to have another census this coming May. We had the last one in 2006, and it was rather inconclusive. I recall the controversy in 2013 when the then Chairman of the National Population Commission, Dr Festus Odimegwu was asked to resign for making some derogatory comments around our census figures.

But we have to take a dispassionate of these issues if we are to make some progress as a nation. In research and statistics, it is usually advised not to obtain data for a singular source, but that your research would be stronger and more credible if you are able to triangulate your data. This means that you should strive to compare data across at least three sources. When we compare the number that we claim as our population with some other sources, it just doesn’t add up.

My concern today is our election numbers. I have discussed this with a number of people but the explanation they give does not convince me. Let’s look at this very scary phenomenon. In 1993, the total number of voters in the general (presidential election), was 25.4 million. In 1999 the number rose to 30 million. Good. In 2003, the number further rose to a whooping 42 million. But since them something different has been happening. We saw a reduction to 35 million in 2007, then it rose to 39 million in 2011. In 2015, the total votes were a total of 29 million. While in 2019, the numbers fell to 27 million. Surprisingly, in the year 2023, with so much information dissemination, awareness and youth participation, when there was indeed a surge in new registrations (9.5 million), and the electoral commission (INEC) had 93 million people on the register, we couldn’t manage more than 25.2 million votes. This number is less than what we had in 1993, 30 years ago.

As the elections are being rounded up, some people have complained about rigging and I wonder how. When these folks see the numbers, they talk about voter suppression. I write this as the governorship and state assembly elections are being conducted and I could see from all reports that there was far less enthusiasm around these sets of elections than the presidential one. I doubt if we will find 15 million in this election. My experience with the presidential elections was that a lot more people came out. In my polling unit in Abuja, the numbers were much, despite the unit having been split into four. I believe that riggers are more interested in having large votes than managing to scrape a win. But we should note that the drop in the number of voters have been almost consistent since after the 2003 elections, so it’s not a new phenomenon. I will want to put that in the ambit of technology, which appears to be catching out our lies. It is however true, from what we have seen as evidence so far, that our politicians and their supporters added to their election numbers where they could get away with it. This means that even the 25.2 million number has an element of vote inflation. If we backed that out, will we be talking of about 18 million votes or less? And given the youth enthusiasm and the turnout in my polling unit, I don’t want to buy that idea that there was apathy. If despite all the issues that should draw them out, 80-90% of eligible voters in Nigeria just plainly refuse to come out to vote, then we are as good as not having them as citizens. I just don’t buy it.

With a population of 220 million people, perhaps we should have about 150 million eligible to vote in the first place. How does this get prised down tom 93 million, and then 25.2 million on election day – a figure lower than what we had 30 years ago? The key factor that has changed over time, is the efficiency of technology. We struggle so hard not to comply but it gets us all in the end.

Then to complete the triangle we could look at bank records. Nigeria has 54 million bank verification numbers, which are supposed to be unique, though I understand some Nigerians found ways to obtain multiple BVNs. Our National Identification Number (NIN) – another unique number – has about 90 million registrations. This NIN number, mind you, is for everybody, from a child born today. So, that number approximates Nigeria’s population give or take another 20-30% of people who simply refuse to register. The gap between the NIN and BVN could be put down to those who refuse to open accounts.

So, why do we claim 220 million? Is it because, like they say about Texans, Nigerians like big things? Could we somehow get a more reasonable number with the coming census?  Is it possible for Nigeria to wake up one day and tell the world ‘sorry, we have been getting our stats wrong and our population is 120 million’?  I think if we could present with a more accurate figure, we shall have a lot to gain. First, we should be taken out of the inglorious list of countries populating the world. We would also get reclassified off the list of some of the poorest people on earth as everything per capita suddenly shoots up. That could earn us some respect. The numbers of Nigerians in multidimensional poverty will also get reclassified and we should get some positive vibes going on among out people, rather than this pervading – even if attractive – pull to despair. We may have boxed our minds into a dark corner with our false numbers over the years.

As we all must have learnt from the unfortunate and nerve wracking events of 25 February in our political space,most of our political actors that are always ahead of the system aimed at checkmating them in their excesses,have as usual proven to be ahead of the system aimed at reigning them in.
Before proceeding further,to enable us concentrate on the basic implications of the complicated general elections whose outcome is casting a very dark shadow on our country, I would like to crave the indulgence of readers to permit me to leave out the granular details of the apparent contradictions embedded in the Electoral Act 2022 to experts on constitutional matters who are already bracing up for the legal fire works.
It needs to be pointed out that in a rather paradoxical manner ,as things currently appear, technology that was introduced to solve an existential challenge with the conduct of elections which borders on integrity of the ballots,arising from ballot snatching and hijacking of sensitive materials etc,has created a new type of crisis.
It may be recalled that when in 2015 technology was introduced into the electioneering process via the Smart Card Reader, SCR and Temporary Voters Card,TVC to mitigate ugly incidents of rigging and the peril of relying on incidents forms that were provided as the alternative in situations where the smart card system malfunctions,unscrupulous politicians decided to bypass the use of the SCR and TVC for conducting elections.
Instead they converted the incident forms which is supposed to be the backup into the main stream process. Thus the SCR which is supposed to be the first line of action,became the back up.
To fix that unanticipated challenge,INEC introduced a more sophisticated solution leveraging Artificial Intelligence,AI known as Bi-Modal Verification and Accreditation System,BVAS.
Before 2015, INEC under the leadership of Prof Atahiru Jega had introduced biometric registration and finger prints of voters. But it did not provide enough sage guards against voter frauds such as accreditation and over voting amongst others.
The BVAS was considered as an excellent solution that would help eliminate other identified issues associated with the SCR earlier highlighted.
Again,political actors have apparently perfected ingenious ways to compromise the BVAS by once again circumventing the rule that demands that it is the records of those that were accredited and voted as captured by the BVAS that should be the source of data for determining the number of voters that got accredited and voted in the respective 176,856 polling units set up by INEC across the country.
Put succinctly,data from BVAS is supposed to be the authentic raw material as it were for producing the results of the election.
As demanded by the reformed Electoral Act 2022,the back up for the use of BVAS in situations where it malfunctions,is the use of form EC8A which is complemental to the use of the BVAS.
But owing to the disingenuous nature of some politicians who always find their way around obstacles,as was the case with SCR,the complementary line of action which is Incident Form with regards to SCR and EC8A form which applies to BVAS,now has become the preferred source for collating results by both politicians and election authorities.
What that implies is that public funds in excess of three hundred billion naira (N300b) which is hard earned money expended by INEC on the 2023 elections might have gone down the drain simply because the elections umpire failed to achieve the objective for which the humongous sum was appropriated.
The assertion above derives from the fact that the BVAS which was touted as a panacea to the incidence of fraud encountered in the past voting processed , ranging from over voting,ballot stuffing and snatching,as well as hijacking of essential and sensitive materials such as result sheets with which fraudulent results are produced,has turned out to produce the opposite results. It is regrettable that BVAS which was supposed to be the cure to all the identified ills in the electioneering process,except vote buying has turned out to be an antithesis of election 2023.
That is because the prime thing that the chairman of INEC Prof Mahmoud Yakubu promised,was the commitment that the result of the polls would be transmitted electronically from the polling units into lNEC sever or data base real-time-online.
The undertaking from lNEC encouraged a lot of Nigerians, especially the youths and young at heart who were hitherto skeptical of the integrity of our elections.
As such,they got persuaded to register and vote based on their conviction that Prof Yakubu is bonded by his promise
to leverage technology and it did not look like Invitation To Treat in contract law, which it has turned out to be.
But after the election was called,in the early hours of 1st of March, without relying on data obtained by BVAS driven by technology as promised by the INEC chairman,disappointed and crest fallen Nigerians, would not have any other option than to deem the promise by the electoral empire as a trick.
It is worthy of note that,although voter accreditation was carried out with BVAS which captures the potential voter’s finger mark and facial recognition as a means of identification,unscrupulous politicians in concert with some compromised officials of the INEC have allegedly once again found ways to circumvent that technology.
Hence results recorded in the EC8A form which is manipulatable as opposed to what is captured by BVAS were relied upon for collating the results of the election and why the recently held presidential and National Assembly elections are being disputed.
In a nutshell it is the reason the 25 February 2023 election outcome is being alleged to have been tainted and its integrity is being contested, just as it is also responsible for the life of Nigeria as a country hanging in the balance.
While the debate on whether the issue of winning 25% of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT,Abuja votes is also a precondition in addition to winning the highest number of votes cast nationwide and in at least 25% of the 36 states in our country before being declared a winner of the presidential contest is also raging,it is not as consequential and therefore not a major factor. That is basically because of the doctrine of substantial compliance with the act justified by the belief or reality that no election can be perfect.
In deed the 1993 contest between Chief Awolowo and Alhaji Shagari produced numbers that were not perfect,particularly with respect to 2/3rd majority of 19 states which the court concluded was 12 and 1/2 which was not perfect, but it met the reasonable compliance threshold.
In defense of the mandate that INEC has given him,the ruling APC’s candidate , Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu,now president-elect and his presidential campaign team have stated that there is no compulsion to transmit the election result electronically as expected by the opposition. They also push back on wining 25% of votes in the FCT being a requirement for the mandate to be complete for consummation.
Apparently,the much celebrated Electoral Act 2022 is that nebulous and clearly requires being revisited by the 10th when it is inaugurated.
In a twist which is to the chagrin of the parties alleging that the 25 February election was rigged in favor of the declared winner, senate president,Dr Ahmed Lawan under whose watch the electoral act was passed in 2022 has pushed back during a senate session,by stating that the Electoral Act 2023 being relied upon by those at odds with INEC’s verdict did not mandate electronic transmission of the results from the polling unit.
Rather,he made a case that it is a promise made by the chairman of INEC,Professor Mahmud Yakubu who is the elections umpire who had the discretion,but failed to keep his promise to send the results electronically to the server of the commission.
As such ,it is being argued that it is a moral rather than legal issue.
As Friedrich Nietzsche a German philosopher and cultural critic once wrote:
“All things are subject to interpretation. Whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power & not truth.”
So,some of the aggrieved political parties and their candidates have headed to the tribunals.
And in the light of the above development,the collective destiny of Nigerians has once again been handed over to the interpretative society which is the judiciary for determination.
Although courts have been known to have dethroned monarchs such as the emir of kano and Obong of Calabar ; state governors such as Celestine Omehia in Rivers state and Emeka lhiedioha of lmo state as well as Oserheimen Osunbor of Edo state: never has any court or tribunal upturned the election of a democratically elected president of Nigeria.
In the African continent,upturning a presidential election has only happened in Kenya and Malawi.
According to Africaportal.org a website focused on democracy and development in Africa:
“In Feb. 12, the Malawi High Court upheld its original decision to nullify the country’s May 2019 presidential election, and decreed that the poll must be rerun within 150 days. Malawi has thus become only the second African country, after Kenya in 2017, to have had a presidential election annulled by the courts. But although the High Court’s ruling is a promising sign of judicial independence in one of the world’s poorest countries, the experience of Kenya suggests that rerunning elections may not necessarily restore faith in fragile democracies.”
Strikingly, the website reported that:
“Malawi’s one-round presidential election was essentially a three-horse race, won by the incumbent Peter Mutharika with 38.6% of the vote. The result prompted widespread protests and a nine-month court case led by the opposition,which alleged that there had been massive irregularities, including the use of Tipp-Ex correction fluid to alter the results sheets.”
Does the Malawi situation not bear very close resemblance and look similar to what allegedly happened in Nigeria during the 25 February elections which as also a three horse race ?
With the level of disaffection and dissatisfaction of the opposing political parities about the outcome of the 25 February presidential and NASS elections in Nigeria, our courts are already receiving suits from the aggrieved who are seeking to overturn the presidential election.
Remarkably,about 89 senior advocates of Nigerian SAN, (which is unprecedented) ahave been engaged and arrayed by the two aggrieved political parties -PDP and LP against the ruling APC and its candidate that was declared the winner and currently the president-elect.
Are we on the cusp of a monumental political development that would change the narrative about presidential election contests and disputations or the challenge in court would just serve the purpose of deepening our jurisprudence in electoral matters,by so doing close the loopholes in the current electoral act,and set precedents and parameters for the future?
At least the Electoral Act 2022 had made a provision for anticipated litigations to be wrapped up before 29 May date set for the inauguration of the next president.
And from 1st March when the election was called in favor of the APC candidate to May 29 for the swearing-in-ceremony, there is a window of about three months within which the Supreme Court would seat over the matter and give judgment.
That is because one of the beauties in the Electoral Act 2022 is that it demands that the disputes between opposing candidates and parties to determine winners and losers must be concluded by the tribunals before the inauguration date for the president and governors.
That is why the span of time between the date of election and Inauguration day was stretched further than in the past.
According to Marc Elias, a democratic lawyer,former United States of America, USA president Mr Donald Trump and his allies filed 62 lawsuits in state and federal courts seeking to overturn election results in states the president lost in the 2020 presidential election won by president Joe Biden.
Ideally ,the court which is the temple of justice and the last bastion of democracy, because it is meant to be an impartial arbiter is also currently suffering from trust deficit from Nigerians.
That is as a result of recent judgements issued by the apex court which most Nigerians consider to be opaque and incomprehensible.
As such the judiciary,particularly the Supreme Court which was thought to be incorruptible has been receiving attacks from the civil society organizations and the public in general who are accusing judicial officers of being compromised.
Casting aspersions on the judiciary that is the interpretative society and third arm of government in a presidential governance system consisting of a tripod of Executive,Legislative and Judicial arms in a functional democracy is the lowest level possible that our country has sunken.
The opprobrium and vote of no confidence on the judiciary are engendered by a series of judgements from the courts which pundits aver are opaque and below par,therefore are being characterized as purchased judgements from magistrates courts,high courts to appeal courts and even to the highest level of Supreme Court.
In recent times, public odium on the judiciary has been so palpable that the spokesman of the Supreme Court Dr Festus Akande recently lashed out in a media statement warning its critics of consequences,if the fourth estate of the realm continues to question the legal and moral contents of the decisions of the highly exalted members of the temple of justice.
The recent outburst from the Supreme Court through its spokesman is an attitude that most Nigerians have interpreted as an attempt to gag not only the media,but the general public:
“It is so disheartening to learn that some individuals and groups of persons who ought to know better and even assume the revered positions of role models to a larger proportion of the citizens are now sadly, the very ones flagrantly displaying ignorance and infantilism in the course of defending the indefensible”.
If l were to be in a position to advise the Supreme Court and indeed the judiciary on how to shore up its sagging reputation,
l would recommend that it starts explaining its judgements instead of lampooning those who question them for lack of clarity.
That approach is in tune with the often quoted aphorism: “Justice must not only be done, but must also be seen to be done” which is a dictum laid down by Lord Hewart,the then Lord Chief Justice of England in the case of Rex v. Sussex Justices, [1924].
Without the critical mass of Nigerians buying into Supreme Court judgements, which is tending towards being the case rather than the exception lately,only the former part of the referenced Lord Hewart’s admonition would have been adhered to while ignoring the later part “…but must be seen to be done”.
That is the crisis of confidence that is currently besetting the judiciary with the Supreme Court steadily,but unwittingly pushing itself into the vortex of skepticism that has aggregated it into the trust deficit synonymous with government and governance in our country.
It is in the context of the apparent and underlying absurdities in the judiciary that a very consequential presidential and NASS elections have been held.
With a controversial outcome, two of the eighteen political parties that contested are disagreeing with the verdict and they are seeking justice in the same courts that are receiving public bashing.
Is that not problematic?
It has also not helped matters that the INEC Chairman,has not deemed it fit to apprise Nigerians of the wisdom in his jettisoning of the provision of the Electoral Act 2022 which mandates him to transmit or transfer election results captured in the the BVAS into the IReV which is a portal for viewing result for the purpose of transparency.
Although a clause in the electoral act is being said to have given the election umpire the discretion of determining the method of transmission of the results,the chairman of INEC is on record to have made a personal commitment in multiple press conferences both in Nigeria and Chatham House, London, United Kingdom, Uk to transfer the data from BVAS straight into IReV real-time online for final collation of the result.
There is no doubt that Nigerians deserve to know what made Prof Yakubu change his mind!
As the major advocate for the use of technology in conducting elections with which he had successfully and creditably delivered governorship elections in Delta Edo,Anambra and Osun states,plus the fact that the same rule is clearly spelt out in INEC elections guidelines,it beggars belief that the electoral umpire would flout his own rule and remain mum instead of a least trying to justify his action.
What has gone amiss,Nigerians are literally dying to know.
As the conventional wisdom goes: silence is golden.
But Prof Yakubu’s silence on this occasion can not be golden. That is because only he, can redeem himself .
Not Mr Festus Okoye-the commissioner in charge of voter education or the Chief Press Secretary, CPS to INEC,Mr Rotimi Oyekanmi,who have only started speaking nearly two weeks after the polls were conducted.
The anxiety is underscored by the fact that by continuing to demur, Prof Yakubu is raising the tempo of agitation and heating up the polity which is not good for Nigerians or even in the best interest of the ruling APC and its presidential standard bearer, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu,who has assumed the status of president-elect.
I can wager a bet that the ex governor of Lagos state,APC leader and political power broker would not like to kick off his leadership of our cherished country while it is enmeshed in the chaotic atmosphere that the disputed election process has engendered as we are all actually caught up in a gale of election controversy and bubble.
So,the silence-of-the-grave posture that the INEC boss has assumed is hurting rather than helping Nigeria and Nigerians.
Critical nations in the global community were here to monitor the elections and they departed our shores with unfulfilled expectations after witnessing embarrassingly high level of malpractices in the course of the election exercise.
They comprise of the powerful delegations representing the International Republican lnstitute, lRl,and National Democratic Institute,NDI which are influential think-tanks from the USA, top members of the European Union,EU and the African Union,AU members including a handful of ex-presidents of South Africa, Ghana , kenya, Malawi and Liberia amongst others that were on ground in Nigeria to monitor the exercise.
But they left our shores highly disappointed in the outcome which they have adjudged as not fair, free and transparent,therefore not a reflection of the wish of Nigerians.
As such,our country is already suffering a deficit of confidence from an array of critical stakeholders from strategic nations around Africa and the Western world that could have automatically become brand ambassadors for Nigeria if things had not gone awry.
Indeed, were the conduct of the 25 February elections to have been fair, free,transparent and credible as president Buhari had vowed it would be,and Prof Yakubu had reiterated,Nigeria could have had all the earlier listed Very Important Personalities,VIPs from Africa and the Western world as champions of Nigerian cause,or Nigerian brand evangelists as well as Nigerian cause advocates in their respective home countries.
That could have been one of the major gains from 2023 elections for the greater good of Nigeria as the dignitaries would have held aloft our beloved country as a beacon of hope for democracy in Africa.
That is what happened in South Africa when apartheid ended and the late leadership icon,Nelson Mandela in 1994 became the president of that country that was highly racially divided, but out of which arose a new country with the unification of black and white into a country that is currently fondly referred to as a rainbow coalition.
On the contrary there has been an avalanche of negative comments on Nigeria by strategic and highly influential international media organizations-The Time, Economist magazines and the Guardian newspaper of London as well as New York times amongst other French and German media organizations.
As earlier stated,our country had also missed a similar opportunity in 1993.
That was when South Africa’s gain was Nigeria’s loss as our country which appeared poised for a national rebirth when the 12 June 1993 general elections held to enable us transit from a military rule into a multi party democracy was annulled by then military head of state, General lbrahim Babangida and hell was literally let loose causing our country to suffer a global backlash.
As one of the election 2023 observers from the US,Ambassador Mark Greene on behalf of the International Republican Institute, IRI and National Democratic Institute, NDl( American Think Tanks) surmised , the 25 February election which failed to meet the expectations of Nigerians is indeed a missed opportunity.
It was a window for our country to have witnessed a new beginning by electing leaders that we all would have believed have the undiluted mandate of the people,if INEC had not derailed in its duty of helping make Nigeria a stronger democracy by being transparent in the process of producing the presidential result. That could have conferred complete credibility on the process,so that the winner would have a legitimate mandate and Nigeria would take its place as the true leader of Africa with all its pride and ramifications.
But lNEC appear to have ineptly bungled it by allegedly not adhering to the Electoral Act 2022 requirements to the last details and failing to keep to its own guildlines to rely on data from BVAS transmitted to its own server real-time-online.
And the disappointing outcome should not have been the case because the election process was believed to have been going well until INEC reneged on its promise of uploading the results online real time into its servers in the headquarters based on its written guidelines that had been advertised across all the media platforms.
The assertion above is validated by the Nigerian Bar Association, NBA under its new helmsman,Mr Yakubu Maikyau who had set up a working group to monitor the 25 February presidential and National Assembly elections.
NBA’s interim report was that 64.6 percent voted of Nigerians felt somewhat satisfied with the elections and 27 percent were excellently impressed and 8.2 percent adjudging the election as poor or very poor. Presumably,the interim report was issued before the collation of the results.
In my view, that was a fair assessment as it reflected the true feelings of Nigerians while the process was ongoing on Saturday 25 February until Sunday the 26th when the balloting process was over and INEC failed to upload the results from the polling units into the server as it had promised.
That is when the initial good feelings of Nigerians about the exercise went south after it became apparent that the results were not transmitted to INEC sever/database through the BVAS used for accreditation as stipulated in the electoral umpire’s guildline and as demanded by the electoral act 2022 and which Prof Yakubu promised severally.
The bottom line is that the conduct of the highly controversial election 2023 was not really the problem,but the counting of the votes during which the result is believed to have been rigged.
The alleged ignoble role of INEC fits into the statement attributed to Mr Joseph Stalin, a former Soviet Union dictator that famously said:
“The people who cast the votes decide nothing; the people who count the votes decide everything”
If indeed INEC did not rely on data from BVAS for arriving at the final result as being alleged, the election umpire would have indeed made “the people who cast the votes decide nothing”as Stalin had noted?
In any case ,it is within the purview and ambit of the law to determine if the allegation of the votes of Nigerians not counting is true or false and l believe the election tribunal would work assiduously towards achieving that objective.
As if in convergence with the wise crack: “when it rains ,it pours”, the forthcoming elections at the subnational polls that got postponed from 11 March to 18 March,is susceptible to stirring up another controversy that may force another postponement.
The view above is underscored by the fact that a high court in Abuja has ruled that TVC which INEC has replaced with PVC should be used in the next election.
That would be further mudding the waters if it is sustained.
Although,INEC has challenged the court ruling and has promised to vacate the judgement, it remains a snag that has the potential to become another blight on our already mortally damaged 2023 elections.
Given how disappointed Nigerians are based on the belief that BVAS was side tracked and all the former fraudulent practices that were thought to have been eliminated by BVAS were on full display with impunity during the 25 February polling exercise, trust has been broken in the willingness and ability of INEC to be impartial.
So, chances are that violence may be manifest in the conduct of the 18 March gubernatorial and state legislators elections.
If mayhem happens on the Election Day and lives are lost, we know whose door steps to lay the blames.
Clearly,we need better and stronger safeguards for our fragile democracy.
And the nebulous legislation which Electoral Act 2022 has turned out to be,needs to be given a second look by the incoming 10th NASS to ensure that there are no more loopholes in the act that may be exploited in a manner that it could cast a slur on the election process in our beloved country.
That is because the reforms in the current Electoral Act 2022 that are supposed to make the process less fractious are obviously not as efficacious.
Hence the legislation which was thought to have raised higher the quality and standards of political office contestations in our country, is turning out to do the exact opposite.
Obviously, the 10th NASS has its job cut out for it.
May God bless Nigeria with wise leaders.

Magnus onyibe,an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
To continue with this conversation, please visit www.magnum.ng

Introduction

As Nigerians head to the polls, they will be taking part in one of the most highly anticipated Presidential races the country has ever seen. Comprised of a population of around 220 million people, what happens in Nigeria, inevitably, has a ripple effect felt far beyond its borders. However, with over half of young Nigerians under the age of 24 being unemployed, insecurity, endemic corruption, a nationwide cash shortage that is wreaking havoc at banks and with citizens, zero healthcare, crumbling educational systems, no electricity or clean drinkable water, it is clear, this President-elect has his work cut out for him. With such a list of political and socio-economic problems that are plaguing Nigeria, it begs the question, how are we going to get out of this hole?

Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Keys to Development

The Legatum Center for Development and Entrepreneurship at MIT, believes that innovation and entrepreneurship are key to developing a country’s ecosystem. For a country to survive, its ecosystem should maintain a delicate balance between different stakeholders: entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, universities and government. I had the rare opportunity to visit three countries that are working every day to put innovation and entrepreneurship at the forefront of their agenda: The United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Senegal.

As an MIT Legatum Foundry Fellow, each visit had me retrospectively thinking about how they’ve been able to improve versus why we’re still getting wrong in Nigeria. I learned that in their own unique ways, each country is showing how the government can work in tandem with the private sector, to drive the goals of visionary leaders that Nigeria’s President-elect could learn a lot from.

UAE

In the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque in Abu Dhabi, prayers are said. 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Imams, prayer leaders and up to 50,000 people a day come there, some of whom pray for the soul of the departed leader Sheikh Zayed. The Sheikh had a vision for his country: to build a new reality for his people, a new future for their children and a new model for development. One man’s vision decades ago, transformed the destiny of generations coming after him.

In the UAE, those goals carry through today. The country has created what they call their ‘2031 Vision,’ a national development plan for the next 10 years, with an eye on the power of tech. Today, Dubai has a Ministry of Artificial Intelligence, and they didn’t just stop there. The country has also established the Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence. An institution that is fully dedicated to advancing A.I. and using it as a force for good. It’s such a critical time for that industry, with companies like ChatGPT and Midjourney now dominating conversations around the future of tech, with even Meta recently announcing new A.I. products are being developed for Instagram and WhatsApp. It is clear that A.I. is going to quickly become an invaluable and crucial piece of technology for industries and countries.

Outside Dubai, Sharjah is another notable city in the region, that shows the government’s push to support innovation and entrepreneurship. In Sharjah, they’re working to bring in entrepreneurs from outside the UAE and support them through initiatives like the Khalifa Fund and other opportunities given to entrepreneurs and Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMES). This openness ensures that Abu Dhabi emerges as a thriving destination, so that people coming from outside the region can equally benefit and contribute to building the economy.

Beyond tech and business, Abu Dhabi is also positioning itself more and more as a touristic and artistic destination. For a long time, people have often only associated countries in the Middle East with oil; but, within the last few decades Abu Dhabi is working to change that narrative.  From the Louvre to the Sheikh Zayed Mosque, one sees how Abu Dhabi is also actively looking beyond oil, diversifying its economy and attracting tourists to visit and enjoy what the country has to offer.

Egypt

It’s a similar story in Egypt, where they’re also building on their history to move them into the future. One clear example of this, is in the majestic Sultan Hussein Kamel Palace. A historic site that has been around since the early 1900s…And today, it has been morphed into a modern platform for entrepreneurs, offering incubation programs for Egyptian start-ups. The Palace also has a working partnership with Egypt’s IT, Industry and Development Agency (ITIDA). Through this, up and coming businesses get access to support through a competitive application process. And, they’re actively impacting businesses. At this point, ITIDA has worked with hundreds of local start-ups. It also helps that it’s located right opposite the University of Cairo. Being this close to the school also means being close to young, curious minds to easily explore whether start-up life is for them. All of this was a real eye-opener, and a sad cry for what we call universities and research institutes back home in Nigeria.

Senegal

Finally, not too far from us in Nigeria is Senegal – but, compared to us, they’re making leaps and bounds when it comes to innovation at multiple levels. Although it’s considered a developing country, its ecosystem is thriving. The Senegalese government is deliberate in making sure women and young people are included through the Office of Digital Economy and Youth Employability. The government is also highly focused on bringing marginalized groups into the financial system, especially in a country where 97 percent of enterprises are in the informal sector according to the International Labour Organization. In Senegal, resources are made available to women, small and microscale enterprises, at no interest, something Nigeria could benefit from as so much business here is also done informally.

Like the UAE and Egypt, Senegal also values the importance of a solid education for building the next generation of leaders. Dakar American University of Science and Technology was founded by Dr. Sidy Ndao and was started with less than $50,000 of his own money. His goal? To educate future engineers, scientists, astronauts and people of African heritage. Implementing an American style of education with a reputation for excellence, students come out with a five-year engineering degree with critical thinking abilities, strong communication and entrepreneurship skills from a university focused on practical learning.

The entrepreneur is one of the most critical stakeholders to driving a thriving innovation ecosystem in any nation; how they’re perceived, conceived and frankly, whether the government supports them or not. In Nigeria, it’s sad to realize that there’s a huge bias against entrepreneurs. Most have very little or no capital, they can’t access funds; and even if start-up funds are available, the entrepreneur is knocked down by huge costs in the form of multiple taxes, federal tax, state taxes, local government fees, business licensing, infrastructural license fees, business-related licensing and other tax obligations; fees can topple any business within two years of starting out.

Conclusion

In witnessing different ecosystems, it’s clear that of the three, Nigeria could learn the most from the UAE, as it’s closer than ever to the original vision of Sheikh Zayed. His vision stated very clearly that he hoped to build a new future for people, and a new model of development. Through his goals, the UAE has embraced the use of technology to the point that they have an entire Ministry dedicated to A.I. linked to the Prime Minister’s office. Their government has embraced innovation as the hallmark of development; their ‘2031 Vision’ aims to transform the country from a dependency on oil to a knowledge-based economy. In Sharjah, they’ve set up an entrepreneurship center providing support to entrepreneurs to gain access to finance, working spaces, investors, legal support and more.

Please, say a prayer for Nigeria.

Our next leader must have a clear vision. He must be insightful and ingenious; one who will unite the nation with a strong mission and purpose. Lee Kuan Yew had a vision for Singapore, Sheikh Zayed had a vision for Abu Dhabi, will the incoming President of Nigeria be able to step into the role and be a visionary? Not just to lead, but unite our country with a vision so strong that it overpowers tribe, language, cultural and religious bias. Our leader must practice adaptive leadership, have a purpose, be in line with current realities, and be intentional about our future.

Bolanle Austen-Peters

MIT Legatum Foundry Fellow

Founder, Terra Kulture and BAP Productions

As the dust settles on Nigeria’s presidential election, the focus turns to the incoming administration and the policies that will define its tenure. The election, which saw Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) emerge as the winner, presents an opportunity for Nigeria to chart a new course and tackle some of the challenges that have bedevilled the country in recent years.

There is no doubt that Nigeria is at a critical juncture in its history. The country has a growing population, a thriving economy, and enormous potential. However, it also faces a range of pressing issues, from corruption and insecurity to infrastructure deficits and social inequality. To address these challenges, the incoming administration must adopt a bold and innovative approach that takes into account the unique circumstances of Nigeria.

One option for the new regime is to focus on infrastructure development. Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit is well-documented, with the country ranking low in global indices for access to electricity, roads, and other basic amenities. Addressing this deficit will require a significant investment in infrastructure, including power generation, transportation, and housing. The incoming administration could consider establishing a dedicated infrastructure fund, with private sector participation, to finance and manage infrastructure projects across the country. Such an approach could help to attract foreign investment and create jobs while improving the quality of life for Nigerians.

Another option for the new regime is to tackle corruption head-on. Corruption is a major challenge in Nigeria, with the country ranking poorly in global indices for transparency and accountability. The incoming administration could consider implementing a range of measures to combat corruption, including strengthening anti-corruption agencies, improving governance and accountability frameworks, and promoting transparency in public procurement processes. The new administration could also consider introducing whistle-blower protections, incentivizing citizens to report cases of corruption and malfeasance. By tackling corruption, the incoming administration could help to restore public trust in government institutions and create a more conducive environment for investment and economic growth.

The new regime could also prioritize security and stability. In recent years, Nigeria has faced significant security challenges, from terrorism and insurgency to communal clashes and banditry. The incoming administration could consider implementing a range of measures to improve security and stability, including increasing funding for security agencies, improving border control and intelligence gathering, and addressing the root causes of insecurity, such as poverty and unemployment. The new administration could also consider establishing community policing initiatives, promoting dialogue and reconciliation between communities, and investing in education and skills development programs to create opportunities for young people. By prioritizing security and stability, the incoming administration could help to create a more conducive environment for investment and economic growth.

In addition to these options, the new regime could consider a range of other policy initiatives to drive economic growth and development. For example, the new administration could consider promoting entrepreneurship and innovation, creating a favorable business environment, and increasing access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises. The new administration could also consider promoting trade and investment, both domestically and internationally, by improving infrastructure, reducing trade barriers, and promoting Nigeria as a destination for investment. By pursuing these and other policy initiatives, the incoming administration could help to unlock Nigeria’s vast potential and create a more prosperous and equitable society for all Nigerians.

However, it is important to note that implementing these policy initiatives will not be easy. Nigeria is a complex country, with a range of political, economic, and social challenges. The new administration will need to navigate these challenges carefully, while also building consensus and working collaboratively with stakeholders across the country. Additionally, the new administration will need to ensure that its policies and initiatives are inclusive and promote the interests of all Nigerians, regardless of their backgrounds or affiliations.

To achieve its objectives, the new administration must prioritize inclusive governance and ensure that all Nigerians have a voice in the policy-making process. This means reaching out to civil society organizations, community leaders, and other stakeholders to understand their perspectives and concerns. It also means creating opportunities for citizens to participate in the governance process, whether through public consultations, town hall meetings, or other forms of engagement.

In addition to building consensus, the new administration must also prioritize transparency and accountability. This means being open and honest about its policies and initiatives, and ensuring that resources are used efficiently and effectively. It also means holding public officials accountable for their actions and ensuring that they are subject to appropriate oversight and scrutiny.

Furthermore, the new administration must prioritize long-term planning and sustainability. This means looking beyond short-term political considerations and focusing on policies and initiatives that will deliver long-term benefits for Nigeria and its citizens. It also means ensuring that policies and initiatives are designed to be sustainable, both financially and environmentally.

The new administration must also take into account the importance of international relations and cooperation. Nigeria is an important player in the West African sub-region and a key member of the African Union. It is also a major oil producer and a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). As such, its actions and policies have implications beyond its borders.

The new administration should therefore prioritize regional and international cooperation, working closely with its neighbours and partners to address common challenges and promote regional stability and development. This means engaging with other African countries and organizations, as well as with international organizations such as the United Nations and the World Bank. It also means promoting cooperation and dialogue with other major powers, including China, the United States, and the European Union.

In addition to promoting regional and international cooperation, the new administration must also prioritize environmental sustainability. Nigeria is a country with significant environmental challenges, from deforestation and desertification to air and water pollution. The new administration must take steps to address these challenges, promoting sustainable land use practices, investing in renewable energy, and reducing carbon emissions.

In doing so, the new administration can help to ensure that Nigeria’s economic development is sustainable and environmentally responsible, promoting a green economy that creates jobs and supports the country’s long-term prosperity.

Overall, the incoming administration has a range of policy options at its disposal to address the pressing challenges facing Nigeria. By prioritising inclusive governance, transparency, accountability, and long-term planning and sustainability, infrastructure development, corruption, security, and economic growth, regional and international cooperation, and environmental sustainability Furthermore, success will depend on the ability of the new administration to build consensus and work collaboratively with stakeholders across the country, as well as on its ability to take a holistic approach to policy-making that takes into account the interrelated challenges facing Nigeria today, this way, the new administration can help to unlock Nigeria’s vast potential and create a more prosperous and equitable society for all Nigerians.

Every presidential candidate in the recently concluded presidential election – save probably for Omoyele Sowore – promised to remove Nigeria’s overhanging fuel subsidy, which takes anything between N4 trillion to N6 trillion of the country’s lean resources every year. We all know that the figures don’t add up, and the challenge is how to ensure the people are not continually and mercilessly ripped off especially in a ‘deregulated’ market where a few entities (oligopoly) will control everything and determine what prices they wish to sell to the vast majority.

DEREGULATION’ IS BETTER REGULATION

We usually get concepts wrong in Nigeria.  Therefore it must be said quickly that what is known worldwide as ‘deregulation’, actually means better regulation without the unholy interference of corruption or collusion, or the exploitation of consumers by capitalists. With our inability to show some grit with regards to controlling the market today, the new government will have to show that it is different from Day One. Can we rein in our regulators to do the right thing and face their work professionally? Is the average Nigerian not always scheming to get a leg up on everybody else? Are we going to import new people from planet Mars to replace those Nigerians in our regulatory agencies – many of whom have been implicated in almost all of the past scandals in the industry? How do we check collusion among the few big players who will naturally dominate the industry? Cartelization is a clear and present danger – if not outright monopolies (if big players move to acquire every competition so as to solely dictate price and market direction). How do we prevent the exploitation of poor Nigerians whose incomes are not catching up with inflationary trends at all?

LESSONS FROM 2011 AND NIGERIA’S FUNNY STATISTICS

These questions are very important to consider, beyond the statements by candidates – and especially President-Elect Bola Tinubu – to remove subsidies no matter what happens. We have to carefully consider the situation, and refused to be pushed down the cliff by multilateral agencies who have insisted over time that fuel subsidies – and multiple exchange rates – are Nigeria’s biggest problems. Admittedly, the lack of accountability is a sad fact around these issues. In 2011 Nigeria was ripped off in the N2.3 trillion subsidy scam, for which few or no entities have paid any consequences. Many of those implicated continue to operate in the sector and a few of them may have received national honors. Today, we are dealing with much larger figures as a result of naira devaluation and the usual shenanigans in the sector. I have not added population growth and economic expansion – which should be factors – because I have cause to question our population ab initio. The recently concluded elections bear me witness. Only 24 million out of 89 million validly registered voters showed up in a keenly contested election, down from 27 million in 2019, 29 million in 2015, 39 million in 2011, 38 million in 2007 and 42 million in 2003! Is Nigeria’s population reducing rather than increasing? Or are we just getting better, leaner figures as a result of better technologies deployed for our elections? And does this not imply that our population may not be anywhere near the 220 million we now bandy about? Story for another day.

Another statistical farce that concerns the oil sector has to do with the amount of petrol that they say gets stolen from Nigeria. A simple research I conducted showed that the consumption of fuel in all our neighboring countries – Chad, Niger, Cameroun and Benin (all Francophone countries) – is not up to 100,000 barrels a day, as against Nigeria’s 445,000. Precisely, Cameroun uses 40,000 barrels daily, Niger 12,000, Chad 2,288, and Republic of Benin 36,000. See https://www.worldometers.info/oil/oil-consumption-by-country/.  Someone must be lying. Either Nigeria does not consume that much, or the needs of these countries are understated. Someone may argue that whatever is stolen from Nigeria goes further to two countries removed (to our neighbor’s neighbors, like DR Congo, Angola, and Sudan). But the argument breaks down at that point, because some of those countries are also oil giants themselves and don’t have to wait for imported fuel from Nigeria. Some of them even have functional and fully-capacitated refineries – much to the shame of Nigeria. So, the argument about smuggling is perhaps the biggest elephant in the room here. It’s apparent that we are being ripped. The new government must ensure sanity in the industry. Being an oil man himself, we expect Bola Tinubu to tackle these guys.

DIESEL AND KEROSENE – TROUBLE IN DEREGULATED MARKETS

Back to the issue. The discussion of how do we proceed with this subsidy removal is very important if we look at how other deregulated fuel markets in Nigeria are doing. Diesel presently sells at between N850 and N950 per litre. Kerosene is more expensive, selling at between N1,100 and N1,400 around the country. I don’t know who still buys kerosene – hopefully not our poor folks in villages and ghettos who still use stoves for cooking. JetA1 fuel used in aviation mirrors kerosene so one can only imagine what airlines are passing through. Do these prices reflect the market strictly? Note that they are much higher than obtains among our neighbors. So why are these products more expensive in Nigeria more than elsewhere? Have we priced in our usual inefficiency, corruption and ‘chua-chua’? Are final consumers having to pay for the bribery that interlace every transaction in Nigeria – especially oil and gas transactions?

So, are we prepared for a runaway petrol price at say N900? How will government manage the fallouts? How do we prevent inflation from going haywire? Should government take a more activist stand in calling sector players to try and tame price increases? What does government do when workers are no longer able to transport themselves to work? This kind of policy, when it is done elsewhere, is designed to discourage people from buying cars or even using their cars if they have one. What are the alternatives we have provided for the vast majority of Nigerians?

BOOBY TRAP

One major booby trap lurking around the corner, which most governments are sure to fall into, is the value of the naira. People (liberal economists and foreign press), look at the parallel markets rate and call another subsidy. But it’s not so cut-and-dried. Indeed, many ‘experts’ have called on Nigerian governments to look at the FX subsidy and remove it side-by-side the petroleum subsidy. The big problem, however, is that these two subsidies are mutually exclusive. In economics, two things are mutually exclusive when they cancel each other.  THE GOVERNMENT MUST NOT DEVALUE WHILE DEREGULATING. Hold your rates firm or else the policy crashes.

In 2016, the Buhari government actually did a full and final removal of fuel subsidies when it moved prices from N87 per litre to N145 per litre. The naira rate at that point, was N199=$1 officially. The N87 was then like $0.40, which was deemed unacceptable. How could Nigeria be buying a gallon of petrol at barely $1.60 when in almighty America it sold for as high as $5.00 at that time, later receding as a result of the global economic crisis to about $2.50 in some areas of the USA. The increase to N145 was seen as brave, for we could then buy at about $0.80 (or $3.20 to the gallon). Seemed fair. Nigeria then devalued her currency to N360 = $1, sending the N145 per litre back to $0.40 – an unacceptable number. This was how the sole importer – NNPC – started racking up new subsidies, which it now called under-recovery.

SUGGESTIONS

1. Cut PAYE – I think President Tinubu, having been saddled with the huge responsibility and risk of removing subsidies, should hit the ground running and cut Pay-As-You-Earn tax rates across the board for anybody earning less than N1,500,000 per month (all-in plus allowances), and on a graduated basis, giving out more to low earners and less to high earners. This will require talking to the states and perhaps an approval of the National Assembly. This should also be done immediately he comes into office, so that at least the people get a head-start and every worker gets something back. However, monitoring is important because many companies just mess around with their staff, deducting taxes but not remitting. Still, this will be a good policy if states align quickly. Whatever is lost here will be recouped through saved subsidy expenditure, and higher productivity and cooperation from workers.
2. Cut CIT – Company Income Tax rates, presently at 30% of the profits of companies, should be cut by a third, to 20%. This will remove the excuse by many that taxes are killing companies and allow companies to employ more and also to expand. This is a very good way of expanding the economy. What will this cost government?  In the year 2022, CIT collections by Federal Inland Revenue Service was N2.83 trillion. Sacrificing potentially N1 trillion to energize the economy is a good investment. However, I will suggest that the concession for zero taxes and zero VAT for all companies with turnover less than N25 million per annum be wound down. That concession came with COVID-19. We should put that era behind us. We may however wish to reduce CIT to 15% for such micro businesses.  Oil taxes, which earned N4.1 trillion out of the N10.1 trillion collected by FIRS in 2022 should be maintained as is – and should grow substantially in 2023 given the recovery of lost grounds in that sector.  The 5% tax on telecoms, which was stepped down by Minister Pantami may be revisited because it will be relatively painless and easy to administer. Lastly, Nigeria needs to institute a system by which ALL companies self-assess for taxes compulsorily, so long as they generate turnover. Banks are not to run accounts for companies with no yearly tax clearance – even if it is zero or minimum taxes. Whatever is sacrificed to prime the economy and reduce the impact of subsidy removal will be recovered tenfold.
3. Focus on rail and metro transportation. The USA expanded into the ‘continent’ it is today because of the investment in rail systems – largely by private individuals like Commodore Vanderbilt as well as Andrew Carnegie. These businessmen were granted incredible amounts of land concessions for their efforts such that between 1850 and 1945, 10% of all the land in the US was granted to rail companies. It was recorded that as the US expanded west after securing the purchase of Louisiana and Florida from the French and Spanish, rail companies were encouraged to keep going through precarious Indian territories. Also, in 1850 and several decades after, anyone who was brave enough to settle west (especially Oregon), was granted 320 acres of land. Couples were granted 640 acres. This is how countries explode. As Nigeria grapples with subsidy removal and its difficult aftermaths, there is a need to invest in the rail system nationwide, and to consider how this can spur the explosion of commerce and productive activities in Nigeria – as it happened elsewhere. This is apart from the fact that it makes life much cheaper for folks, and vehicular traffic will thus reduce, thereby reducing our fuel import requirement – in any. We also hope Dangote and other modular refineries kick in on time.
4. All states to partner with private sector on local transportation – Beyond rail systems and metros in every state capitals  (projects which the central government must visibly encourage and promote, state government should do more for transportation of their people in their urban areas. I would suggest we watch how adequate our private sector investments in inter-state or intercity will be under this new regime where they will also increase fares. But for intracity movement, states are encouraged to emulate Lagos State by investing in large buses that convey people around. States with other endowments, such as water transportation should also use them. Since we are thinking about integrated transport systems, the airports that are springing up everywhere will be part of the solution – as they at least take care of the well-to-do in society. Air fares are expected to remain stable since it is already market-determined. The private sector has a big role to play in the transportation sector. And there is money to be made. The more players, the better as some balance can be achieved on price increases.
5. Manage inflation but don’t set prices – Now, we run a semblance of market economy in Nigeria and prices are determined by the interaction of demand and supply. That is the ideal state of things. In reality… markets are imperfect. And some powerful people in any market seem to know a lot more about that market – as well as upcoming event that will shape market direction – than the majority. This is called information asymmetry. This can happen legitimately. But in a country like ours, there are insider information and a lot of insider trading that goes unpunished. In fact, I cannot remember the last time anyone was convicted for insider trading in any market in Nigeria, save for those guys busted in the 2009 stock market manipulation scandal and subsequent crash. This means that with the likelihood of price increased that will come with fuel subsidy removal, not all of the inflation will be due to strict interaction of market forces. Many Nigerians will try and exploit the gaps, the lacuna, and take advantage of the vast majority of people. Government must use all its powers to protect the masses – including sanctioning, moral suasion, and market monitoring on a real time basis. As it pertains to crude oil and related products, in 2011 the House of Representations had to obtain the Lloyds Register to find out that since-decommissioned ships were claimed to have supplied premium motor spirits to Nigeria. There exists a lot of pranks in that sector, which must be curbed. The current template for price determination by Nigerian regulators – in my view – gives too much leeway for profits to suppliers. The people must not be thrown into the fangs of angry wolves.
6. What to do with refineries? – Many Nigerians believe that government has to bring back the refineries at Port Harcourt, Kaduna and Warri. I have however since lost faith in our ability to run any refineries. So, except we can devise some arrangements with private sector entities to run some of them, I think the old model where civil servants run refineries (NNPC), is a dead idea. Deliberate sabotage is the biggest issue with those refineries. And today, Nigeria is more divided than ever. So, government has to walk away. And those staff who have been earning promotions for doing nothing, need to be processed out so that NNPC becomes leaner for the works ahead of her.

When the 10th National Assembly, NASS resumes after the inauguration of the new president on 29 May,most of the current members of the Senate and House of Representatives in both the red and green chambers of NASS would be strangers.
That is because a significant number of members of the outgoing assembly who represent the old order would have gone with the winds as they have become victims of what l would like to term,’Obi-Dients Effect’
As the political whirlwind that swept across the country, particularly in the southern region, with more disruptive effects in the south-east, south-south and south-west as well as a significant swathe of north central zones took its toll; politics as we used to know it has been upended in the voteing bases of most members of the old political order.
Hitherto,as a member of the commentariat , l had been drawing the attention of the Obi-Dients (which is a third force making waves in the political space) to the fact that they were handicapped based on the reality that they had no political structure.
That is underscored by the fact that universally,without structures which are the bulwark of political parties,public office seekers hardly succeed in their quest.
It is one of the reasons that even in the almighty United States of America,USA, which is the melting pot of democracy and where independent candidacy is allowed, only one independent candidate has ever become president and that is Mr George Washington.
Yes,President George Washington,the first and two times US president is the only independent candidate till date that has won the US Presidency. And on both occasions,George Washington unanimously received all the votes of the electoral college.
That is according to reports by scholar’s which are documented in US archives.
“In both the election of 1789 and 1792 Washington received all votes from the Electoral College. During the first election, Washington won the electors of all ten eligible states. In 1792, Washington received all 132 electoral votes, winning each of the fifteen states, without belonging in any of the major political parties”.
Thereafter, in 1992 and 1996 the billionaire Texas Instruments owner, Mr Ross Perot also unsuccessfully vied for the office of the president of the US as an independent candidate.
Another politician who had attempted to become president in the US in 2016 as an independent candidate and failed,is Mr Evans McMullin.
Billionaire Perot and Mr McMullin failed to make it into the Oval Office in the White House simply because they had no structure which only well established political parties can offer.
Incidentally, what just played out in the current election season in Nigeria had happened in the US in 2016 when owing to lack of popularity of the two traditional and major parties candidates, Senator Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party and the billionaire property tzar, Mr Donald Trump of the Republican Party, provided a window for Mr McMullin to record the highest performance by non Republican or Democratic Party candidates in over two decades in US politics.
Co-incidentally,a scenario similar to one painted above got replicated here in Nigeria during the 25 February 2023 presidential and National Assembly elections,as the unpopularity of the candidates of the ruling APC Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and main opposition PDP, Wazirin Atiku Abubakar amongst the youth population that are desperately seeking a change from the old to a new order, threw up Mr Peter Obi who ran on a platform of no significance, but who embodies the aspirations of the youths.
What the narrative above indicates is that structures matter in politics because without it candidates vying for the presidency of any country do not get their goal accomplished.
That is why the likes of Professors Pat Utomi and Kingsley Moghalu who are renowned intellectuals of no mean stature that are eminently qualified to lead our country,contested for the office of president at various times on the platform of fringe parties that had no structure to be reckoned with, failed spectacularly and embarrassingly.
The same situation applies to media entrepreneurs and journalists,Mr Omoyele Sowore and Bashorun Dele Momodu who had also thrown their hats into the ring signifying their intentions to become the president of our great country,Nigeria but have serially failed to realize their ambition.
But in rather uncanny ways, Mr Peter Obi’s case has been better than the previous attempts by the quartet earlier highlighted in the manner that Reverend Jessie Jackson,a black rights activist who contested for the presidency of the USA on several occasions on the platform of fringe parties that are structureless, became the forerunner to Mr Barrack Obama who achieved the feat of becoming the first and only black man to attain the position of the 44th president of the US.
The reason Jessie Jackson failed and Barack Obama made it into the White House is basically because while the former vied for the office without a structured platform,the latter contested on the platform of an established party with very sturdy platform-the Democratic party.
At the onset of his quest for the presidency of Nigeria after he exited PDP just before the primaries in May and joined the relatively unknown and structureless Labor Party, LP, Mr Peter Obi was looking like an independent candidate.
Hence l kept raising the concern about the jeopardy that he would face by running for the office of president without doing so on solid political structures.
But going forward,the LP Presidential standard bearer has shed that toga of being structureless,because LP has owing to its tenaciousness and resourcefulness resulting in its resounding success in the current election circle,built the structures which we had been calling the attention of Obi-Dients to, and a critical factor which Mr Obi and his team appeared to have been treating with contempt.
As can be seen from the narrative above, the prognosis that the LP and Mr Obi would not be the party and the person respectively that president Muhammadu Buhari would be handing over the reins of government to on 29 May,is bot a figment of imagination but based on a close study of presidential system of democracy in the clime where the practice originated-the US.
Since our presidential system of government was copied from the US,l had tasked myself with the duty of taking a deep dive into the annals of US practice of presidential type of democracy with a view to thoroughly interrogating it in order to figure out what worked and did not work for them.
The self imposed assignment was accomplished by applying trend analysis. And based on my finding,l concluded that the LP and its presidential candidate Mr Obi had vaulting ambition for intending to occupy Aso Rock Villa as the ruling party and the president of Nigeria respectively in the current election circle without the bulwark of a political structure.
The LP being a relatively unknown political platform without established political structures and Mr Obi,at that time,being a sort of an unknown political quantity, exhibited the characteristics of independent candidacy as we know it in the US presidential system of government, hence l deemed his aspiration as unrealistic and unachievable,since rigging is usually carried out by state actors or the establishment?
For instance, assuming for the purpose of this analogy,the APC actually doctored the results of the election held in the 176,856 polling units set up by INEC nationwide as being alleged, would the feat of rigging have been carried without its structure?
But living in denial publicly,the LP/Obi-Dients had discountenanced our wise counsel by claiming that structures were irrelevant in politics.
Meanwhile,they were privately motivating and recruiting an army of aggrieved Nigerians (mainly the youth of the #Endsars cohort) who having had enough of bad government, were determined to force a change through a legitimate political process.
As such,it was easy for that highly incensed and energized crop of Nigerians that were willing and ready to get involved in salvaging their beloved country from the leadership morass that they had identified as the bane of their beloved country,Nigeria did not hesitate in serving as volunteer foot soldiers for the LP and it’s standard bearer Mr Obi which culminated into the superlative performance of the hitherto fledgling political party.
In addition to the backing of the angry youths seeking a rebirth of our country,is the heft given to the movement by political intellectuals such as prof Pat Utomi, Mr Donald Duke , Mrs Oby Ezekwesili,and Balogun Akin Osuntokun amongst others who were also supported with the statesmanly fire power of ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo,who l like to refer to as president emeritus because unlike his predecessors,he appears to be determined not to quit the political stage,hence he keeps meddling in governance.
Equally formidable is the backing from ethnic nationality groups such as Afenefere-Yoruba sociocultural group led by Pa Adebanjo,Pan Niger Delta ethnic and cultural group,PANDEF led by Pa EK Clark, and Middle Belt Forum,the social cultural group of people of north central zone under the leadership of Dr Pogu Bitrus .
The final icing on the cake that bolstered the chances of the LP and Mr Obi is the boost from the Nigeria Labor Congress, NLC-a union comprising of the nation’s civil servants which comprise of a significant number of the nation’s workforce countrywide that agreed to align with the LP in their struggle to replace the old structure with a new one.
The NLC support conferred a more national outlook on the political movement which had from its humble beginnings coalesced into a rampaging political force.
As it is both remarkable and unprecedented, credit should go to the newly elected NLC leadership under Comrade Joe Ajaero,that made it possible for the LP to receive the total and undiluted support of the NLC,which has an unenviable reputation for always being disagreeable with members of the political class.
And it has turned out quite surprisingly that it is the referenced structures formed by non political actors that have proven to be more formidable and potent for boosting Mr Obi’s ambitious quest for the presidency of Nigeria than the political structures as we used to know them.
Nevertheless,since the LP presidential candidate has been unable to make it into Aso Rock Villa in the current dispensation, despite his best effort, l have been proven right that in the absence of some fundamentals that are strategic for success in Nigerian political environment such as political structures,it is difficult if not impossible to ascend to the highest rung of the political ladder.
Having said that,there are inspiring lessons inherent in the tremendous electoral success recorded by Obi-Dients and their presidential candidate,Mr Obi as reflected by the major upsets that they have recorded after the 25 February presidential and National Assembly elections. The part that is most outstanding to me is that despite the fact that the dream of the party and its presidential standard bearer did not come into fruition,their strenuous and dogged fight paid off somehow.
That reality is underscored by the fact that they have grabbed a handful of cloud (6 senate and 34 HoR rseats) even though their hope was to reach for the stars and co-habit with them in the sky (presidential seat in Aso Rock Villa ) which is a mission that they failed to accomplish.
In light of the high impact effect of their current accomplishment, whereby only senators lfeanyi Uba of YPP and Eyinanya Abaribe of APGA have been able to return to the NASS from the entire five (5) eastern states,the Obi-Dients that are currently being wooed by multiple suitors in states that their presidential candidate won,have every reason to aspire to reap further benefits of their huge impact on Nigerian politics,particularly in the eastern flank of our country both in the upcoming subnational elections in 11 March and thereafter in 2027.
But the pertinent and yet to be answered question popping in my head is: would the LP remain cohesive and maintain the type of resolve and intense sense of purpose with which it tackled the current election or would the passion and zeal wear off before the next major election circle?
The answer would in large part depend on if things do not fall apart within the party,as they are wont to in politics,and how well the APC party and its candidate ,now president-elect Asiwaju Bola Tinubu perform in office between now and 2027.
The assertion above is underscored by the fact that wether we admit it or not,it is the abysmal performance of the outgoing government led by president Buhari that has motivated a lot of political office contestants to throw their hats into the ring because they feel they can do better.
Having said that,it needs to be acknowledged that Obi-Dients have been very good listeners to and learners from public commentators whose criticisms appear to have motivated and galvanized them into becoming more tenacious.
That is evidenced by the fact that they continued to push ahead with the can-do-spirit that has paid off as reflected by the great success that they achieved during the presidential and National Assembly polls.
The good news is that going forward the LP or the Obi-Dients,as earlier stated, would be having the much vaunted structures in light of the number of legislators that they now have at the national level (6 senators and 34 HoR) when the 10th assembly is inaugurated.
And that would be in addition to the governors and members of state legislatures that may be added to the LP platform,if the party replicates the type of success that it achieved at the national level during the upcoming 11th March election exercise at subnational level by wining the gubernatorial and legislative contests in as many states that its presidential flag bearer Mr Obi came tops.
In the event that such fortune comes the way of Obi-Dient family a second time,perhaps there would be a harvest of governors and state house of assembly members joining the LP platform.
By implication the anticipated additional number of elected politicians after 11 March polls would be joining in the forming and strengthening of the building of the LP political structure to fortify it for future political endeavors.
That is what l have been harping on as being necessary, if not a requirement for accomplishing the goal of hoisting the LP flag in Aso Rock Villa presidential seat of power.
Buoyed by their recent sensational wins reflected by the fact that the LP came tops in eleven (11) states plus the federal Capital territory, FCT for which they got rewarded with abundance of legislators, they would justifiably be leaving no stone unturned in their jostle for a foothold in the states.
How their ambition to snatch power at the sub national level pans out would reveal whether Mr Peter Obi’s mission to Aso Rock Villa was the sole motivation for the voters that turned out massively to cast their ballots for the LP candidate on 25 February or a holistic desire for a major change in the political arena by Nigerians.
Clearly,politics in our country is no more business as usual as a result of the onslaught and run away success of the LP in the 25 February elections.
That is because the ‘Peter Obi Effect’ has practically consumed everything on its path in the manner that severe weather conditions such as tornados and earthquakes often leave in their wake, sorrow and gnashing of teeth.
As INEC is concluding it’s work,it is estimated that about 90% of the current legislators of lgbo extraction unable to make it into the 10th NASS,would be scratching their heads and wringing their fingers trying to figure out how ‘Obi-Dients Effect’ happened to them in the manner that folks tease each other that Nigeria would soon ‘happen’ to them.
The consequence is that quite a number of the members of the 10th assembly from the eastern region would comprise of newly minted LP law makers that would be resuming in the NASS upon inauguration.
And the flip side of shedding such a significant number of lgbo legislators in one fell swoop in NASS is that it would represent a loss of institutional memory for NASS and deplete lgbo high ranking members of NASS.
Regrettably,that would not augur well for the lgbo nation because there may also not be enough ranking members from the eastern part of the country to take on chairmanship roles in NASS committees.
Anambra state governor,Prof Chukwuma Soludo had made the point that Mr Obi’s quest for the presidency would rob former vice president, Waziri Atiku Abubakar and presidential candidate of the PDP of the chance to win the presidential contest in his combustible and incendiary open letter last November to the LP Presidential candidate,Mr Obi titled: “History Beckons And l Will Not Be Silent (part 1) “ that drew the flak of Ndi-Igbo.
Rather than discourage them, apparently it galvanized the lgbo resolve to vote for Mr Obi.
Clearly,Governor Soludo was being prophetic as Obi’s exploits via his commandeering of south east and south-south votes is the PDP presidential flag bearer’s loss as it is largely responsible for his inability to triumph over his main rival in the contest,Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of APC in the presidential race.
No matter, the prism from which it is considered,the seismic change in the political space in lgbo land would be either a negative or positive development on the fortunes of lgbo people.
And the dictum: different strokes for different folks,rings true in this instance.
Then again , history has taught us that there are always collateral damages arising from revolutions.
The assertion above is derived from the fact that since the return to democratic system of governance in 1999,it was only in 2015 when a coalition of opposition parties led by incumbent president Mohammadu Buhari and president-elect,Tinubu combined forces by collapsing their respective political structures into one political platform-All Progressives Congress, APC, to oust then ruling PDP, that such huge exodus of law makers happened.
Is it not amazing that the LP which only roughly nine (9) months ago was just a quaint party, almost of no consequence,is making the type of extraordinary impact made by APC in 2015 by wielding a huge influence on politics and politicians at the national and likely subnational levels,if they are triumphant in the 11 March election?
Hitherto, the highest level that the LP had attained was to have been the platform leveraged for two state governors to emerge.
These are Chief Olusegun Mimiko who governed Ondo state 2009 to 2017 and Comrade Adams Oshiomole, governor of Edo state from 2008 to 2016.
But going forward the party would be having more than a handful of legislators from the twelve (11) states plus the federal capital territory, FCT in which it has won majority votes.
By the last count,arising from ‘Obi Effect’ , at least eight serving and ex governors had been denied senate seats courtesy of the revolution caused by the inimitable Peter Obi and his highly motivated devotees-Obi-Dients.
The serving and former governors that did not succeed in their bid for the Senate due to Obi-Dient cyclone-like effect that changed Nigeria’s presidential race from a traditional two horse race to a quadruplet one are:Abia state’s Okezie Ikpeazu,Atiku Bagudu of kebbi state, Taraba state’s Darius Ishaku, Benue state’s Samuel Ortom and Enugu state’s Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi as well as Plateau state’s Simon Lalong plus Ben Ayade of Cross River state.
The misfortune did not afflict men only.
About six (6) female senators- Stella Oduah, and Uche Ekwunife, of Anambra state , Biodun Olujimi of Ekiti state, Nora Ladi Dadu from Plateau as well as Akon Etim Eyakenyi of Akwa Ibom states, some of who had had become sort of permanent fixtures in NASS in nearly two (2 ) and half( 1/2) decades were also consumed by the vicious storm of Obi-Dients-labor party army of voters with the sole mission to replace the old political order with a new crop in the bid to force a national rebirth on Nigeria.
That will further whittle down the 5% female representation in the outgoing 9th NASS, although the 10th assembly is coming with a new female senator, Architect Ireti Kingibe of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Abuja.
By comparison, in the current 118th Congress in the USA, women have 28% representation.
Arising from the sea change triggered by the Obi-Dients political tidal wave,it is now a settled belief that incumbents no longer have bragging rights over elective offices as the LP that initially seemed like a Lilliputian under the leadership of Mr Obi has literally mauled giants like the former ruling PDP and the current ruling APC candidates in their traditional strong holds in lgbo land, niger delta region ,a couple of north central states and Abuja as well as Lagos state in Yoruba land where the party enjoys an overwhelming voters support.
One thing that is poignant about the 25 February election 2023 is that it has wittingly and unwittingly wrought a fundamental change on the entire political landscape of Nigeria.
And a good number of the victims of the rumble are yet to catch their breadth or regain composure.
In fact,the powerlessness of incumbents in influencing election results by a sleight of hand is reflected by the fact that the national chairmen of both the APC and PDP did not win their wards in both Plateau and Benue states.
Even president Buhari’s home state, Katsina was lost to the opposition party, PDP just as the president-elect Asiwaju Bola Tinubu also lost his home state,lagos to LP.
Based on the statistics released by INEC chairman,last Saturday, in the Senate, the APC has won 57 seats; APGA – 1; LP – 6, NNPP – 2; PDP – 29; just as SDP also won 2; while the YPP maintains its 1 seat in the senate.
In the House of Representatives,the APC won 162 seats; ADC – 2; APGA – 4; LP – 34; NNPP – 18; PDP – 102; SDP – 2; while YPP won 1 seat.
Effectively, unlike the 9th and outgoing NASS which featured only members of APC, PDP, and YPP, the 10th NASS will welcome lawmakers from the stable of LP, NNPP, APGA ,SDP and ADC who will be joining them.
That means there will be at least 8 political parties in NASS and it is part of the gains of this election circle that signpost the deepening of democracy in our country.
As INEC chairman,Prof Mahmoud Yakubu has noted,the 10th NASS is the most diverse and it is a product of the political revolution that has just happened and facilitated by a reformed electoral system intrinsic in the Electoral Act 2022 that was built on a bulwark of technology.
It is a pity that the benefits of an otherwise very robust electoral reform were not allowed to be fully harnessed and savored due to what the election umpire has referred to as glitches which have cast doubts in the minds of otherwise very enthusiastic electorate.
But skeptical Nigerians who went through grit and grime to vote are unconvinced by the excuse advanced by INEC for the floundering recorded during the 25 February presidential elections by the agency.
Rather they deem it as pre meditated foul play, thus casting a negative aura of doubts on BVAS that had worked effectively and efficiently in Delta, Anambra, Edo ,Ekiti, Ondo and Osun states during by-elections for legislators and off-season governorship elections.
The situation is further complicated by the electoral body’s chairman,Mahmoud Yakubu who rather than first of all explore other dispute resolution options,shunned the complaints of party agents and instead charged them to seek redress in court which is a rather insensitive and cold attitude of an umpire who is supposed to be unbiased.
In any case , crisis after political office contestations is not uncommon in Nigeria and the chief electoral umpires have always been flayed.
When the chairman of Federal Electoral Commission, FEDECO as it was then known , Justice victor Ovie-Whiskey was accused of receiving a bribe of one million naira (as Prof Yakubu has been alleged to have received N50b) to swing victory in favor of the National Party of Nigeria, NPN, he responded by stating emphatically that if he sets his eyes on N1m he would faint.
Justice Ovie-whiskey had led the electoral body between 1980 to 1983 which is some 40 years ago.
That humorous,cryptic and at the same time candid response elicited comical reactions from members of the public,but it dowsed the tension.
Not so for the current INEC chairman Prof Yakubu who appears to be treating Nigerians that are dying to know what happened to their votes with askance and even disdain by remaining mute.
As Nigeria is once again fast degenerating into an atmosphere of “fair is fowl and fowl is fair”, it is cold comfort to the electorate that the choice of who would lead them from 29 May this year for another four (4) years would be decided by the courts,not the masses that voted on 25 February which ideally should have been the case in a thriving democracy.
The phrase “Fair is Foul, Foul is Fair” (Act 1, Scene 1) in the play- Macbeth is chanted by the three witches at the beginning of the play.
According to a google research on the book Macbeth,It acts as a summary of what is to come in the tale.
The author Shakespeare, uses the phrase to show that what is considered good is in fact bad and what is considered bad is actually good.
While the INEC declared winners of the 25 February polls APC and its candidate believe it is excellent, the parties that believe they won the contest but were robbed of victory by INEC also consider the election process to be bad.
Hence the result of a public office election exercise that is supposed to be infallible and unimpeachable because technology was leveraged, has ended up becoming a major thorn in the flesh of Nigerians.
So, the twenty trillion naira (value of Nigeria’s 2023 national budget) question now is : has our beloved country descended into such a lugubrious level ?
I hope not!
Magnus onyibe,an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
To continue with this conversation, please visit www.magnum.ng

The struggle for power in Nigeria is largely driven by identity politics. This is a phenomenon that has been fuelled by a range of primordial factors, including religion, tribalism, ethnicity, and regionalism. These factors have been present in Nigerian politics since the colonial era, and they have played a significant role in shaping the country’s political landscape.

One of the key theorists that can help us to understand the impact of identity politics on Nigeria is Samuel Huntington. In his seminal work “The Clash of Civilizations,” Huntington argued that the world was divided into a series of cultural and civilizational fault-lines that would lead to conflict in the post-Cold War era. According to Huntington, the primary source of conflict in the world was no longer ideological or economic, but cultural.

The relevance of Huntington’s work to Nigeria’s political landscape cannot be overstated. In Nigeria, identity politics has been a major source of conflict, leading to numerous instances of communal violence, political instability, and even civil war. Religion, for example, has played a significant role in Nigeria’s political history, with the country divided roughly along religious lines. The northern part of the country is predominantly Muslim, while the southern part is largely Christian.

Similarly, tribalism and ethnicity have also played a significant role in shaping Nigerian politics. The country is home to over 250 ethnic groups, each with its own unique cultural identity and history. This has led to a situation where politicians often mobilize support along ethnic lines, promising to promote the interests of their own ethnic groups once in power. This has led to a situation where Nigeria’s politics is often defined by a zero-sum game, with one ethnic group seeking to dominate the others.

Regionalism is another factor that has contributed to Nigeria’s identity politics. The country is divided into six geo-political zones, each with its own unique identity and history. This has led to a situation where politicians often mobilize support along regional lines, promising to promote the interests of their own regions once in power. This has further exacerbated the zero-sum nature of Nigerian politics, with one region seeking to dominate the others.

The recent presidential elections in Nigeria are a perfect illustration of the impact of identity politics on the country’s political landscape. The elections were fiercely contested, with the three main candidates representing different region, religious and ethnic groups.

The elections were characterized by pockets of violent incidents, with all sides accusing the other of electoral malpractice. There were also instances of communal violence in some parts of the country, with supporters of different political parties clashing over the results of the election. This is not an isolated incident, as Nigeria has a long history of electoral violence, with many of the incidents being driven by identity politics.

The danger of identity politics in Nigeria is that it threatens to tear the country apart. If politicians continue to mobilize support along ethnic, religious, and regional lines, the country is likely to become increasingly divided. This could lead to a situation where different parts of the country begin to secede, leading to further violence and instability.

The solution to Nigeria’s identity politics lies in nation-building. Politicians need to focus on promoting national unity and building a sense of shared identity among the country’s diverse ethnic, religious, and regional groups. This means investing in education, infrastructure, and other initiatives that promote social cohesion and national unity.

It also means recognizing the importance of diversity in Nigerian society. Rather than seeing ethnic, religious, and regional differences as a source of conflict, politicians should see them as a source of strength. By celebrating Nigeria’s diversity, politicians can help to build a sense of national identity that transcends primordial loyalties and creates a shared sense of purpose and belonging among all Nigerians.

Furthermore, politicians must prioritize the welfare and development of all Nigerians, regardless of their ethnicity, religion, or region. This means ensuring that all Nigerians have access to basic amenities such as clean water, healthcare, and education. It also means creating a level playing field for all Nigerians, regardless of their social status or background.

Nation-building requires a long-term vision and commitment from political leaders. It cannot be achieved through short-term policies or populist measures that seek to appease certain groups at the expense of others. Instead, it requires a sustained effort to promote national unity and a sense of shared identity among all Nigerians.

The role of civil society organizations and the media in promoting national unity cannot be overstated. They can help to promote dialogue, understanding, and tolerance among different groups in Nigerian society. They can also hold politicians accountable for their actions and policies, and advocate for policies that promote national unity and development.

On a final note, the struggle for power in Nigeria as earlier stated is largely driven by identity politics. This is a phenomenon that threatens to tear the country apart if not addressed urgently. Politicians must pay attention to nation-building and not just power grab, as witnessed in the recently conducted presidential elections. They must focus on promoting national unity and building a sense of shared identity among all Nigerians. This means investing in education, infrastructure, and other initiatives that promote social cohesion and national unity. By doing so, Nigeria can build a future that is inclusive, prosperous, and peaceful for all Nigerians.

In military regimes, which have together ac­­c­o­unted for approximately half of the Nigeria’s history, it was technocrats, for most purposes, who led the government. Even in many civilian governments, key positions such as the finance and commerce ministries were often imposed upon them.

Despite their seemingly strong credentials, however, their performance remained mostly unsatisfactory, and if the experiment were to be repeated, there is no reason to expect any different outcome soon. It is, therefore, necessary to reconsider how technical expertise may best be availed in matters of governance.

What did our past technocrat governments fail to achieve? Well, for one, they could not achieve a taxation system that is fair and where what is due gets collected, nor did they manage to increase and diversify exports with goods and services that are internationally competitive, whose sale is not dependent upon receiving state subsidies and grants of ‘favoured’ status by buyer countries.

They were not able to remove discriminatory regulations and subsidies that favour the powerful — of which the corporate sector and banks are the biggest beneficiaries, nor were they able to bring agriculture and livestock productivity and quality at par with international standards or impose agricultural income tax on a par with other sectors.

They were not able to help industry progress from the simple assembly of imported products for domestic sale to national indigenous development, manufacturing and export of products, nor were they able to cut losses by state-owned enterprises.

They were neither able to ensure reasonable quality healthcare and education/skills training for all nor were they able to significantly reduce corruption.

Technocrat dispensations neither intended to nor could have built a narrative that could galvanise citizens’ support for policy reforms.

Why did they fail? To begin with, under military rule, the governments they served were formed in violation of the Constitution and therefore lacked legitimacy. They neither intended to nor could have built a narrative that could galvanise citizens’ support for policy reforms that would have adversely affected special interest groups. Additionally, since 1999, the wrong persons were selected as technocrats — often commercial bankers, former IMF/World Bank staffers and persons with a narrowly focused background in finance/economics/law.

Such individuals lacked the essential qualities and competence required for a national-level policymaker. For example, these technocrats could not relate to ordinary citizens and did not represent them in any way. Some technocrats had a clear conflict of interest in their roles, as they were closely associated with businesses in the same field for which they were devising policies (more on this below).

For decades, these wrongly selected technocrats focused only on short-term financial manipulations — of the currency exchange rate, bank interest rates, deferred payments for imports, juggling of certain import/export duties and subsidies, and so forth.

The real economy — comprising agriculture and industry (including IT) and international trade/exports — was not paid sufficient attention to for the medium or long term.

What are essential qualities that should be sought in a national-level policymaker? As discussed in one of my earlier articles, they include awareness of the living conditions of the people and their needs; an understanding of society’s core values and priorities; empathy with the people; loyalty to this country; deep knowledge of and experience in one or more sectors; a public mandate; and an absence of conflict of interest.

The majority of our population is directly or indirectly dependent on agricultural income, while agriculture accounts for half of the employed labour force.

Staple agricultural produce is our major source of our exports. Key industries, such as textile, fertiliser, tractors and agricultural machinery, and sugar and flour mills are linked to agriculture. Less than 1% of the population owns shares in the corporate sector or banks.

It is true that the services sector currently accounts for significant portion of our  GDP flows, but the country’s financial sector, wholesale/retail trade and transport sectors, and most other services sectors primarily serve the domestic market and have not attracted substantial foreign investors.

The services sector does not compare with agriculture in exports, and insufficient exports are the bane of our economy and the main reason behind our socio-economic crisis. It would, therefore, be a gross misreading of the reality to surmise that Nigeria is essentially a services economy which can be steered by tinkering with rates and percentages.

Given the context, what is the most effective way to engage technocrats? First, there should be agreement that we are a democracy where lower-income citizens form the majority, and the well-being of the majority is paramount. Then come the next steps: our elected representatives should set clear national development policy objectives and guidelines, after which the legislative arm should select technical specialists.

Technocrats, once appointed, should work under and within the given policy parameters, instead of acting as policymakers themselves, and help develop plans and activities. Meanwhile, the elected representatives should build a public narrative to explain and convince citizens of what needs to be done. And once a strong unified narrative is built, the citizenry can be expected to stand by the government when it is doing away with the unjust privileges extended to special interest groups.

In conclusion, it may help to illustrate the proposed arrangement using the structure of a corporate enterprise. The elected representatives may be seen as the board of directors of the company, representing the owners (the citizens). The bureaucracy forms the management staff, while the technocrats function as management consultants.

The BoD sets the objectives and policy guidelines to benefit the owners (citizens). The management then develops plans and acts to achieve that. The management consultants, based on their broad experience and area expertise, may be engaged to advise the management (or to take a more practical part in developing plans) or even advise the BoD, as needed. But always, the BoD (here, the elected representatives) should be the final decision-makers.

IT is now impossible to escape the reality that some in Nigeria have too much wealth while many have too little. Families are having to choose between food on the table and children in school. It is hard not to think that this is unfair. We can be callous about it or concerned. How the future unfolds might depend on our choice.

Contrary to the promised trickle-down of capitalist development, wealth has been sucked up. Extrapolating from India, five per cent of Pakistanis now own more than 60pc of the country’s wealth whilst the bottom 50pc share only 3pc of it. This is a huge suppression of demand that stifles growth and fosters despair.

It is unsurprising that redistribution can yield positive results. Almost all prosperous East Asian countries had land reforms, chaotic in some (China) and orderly in others (South Korea). Wealth transfer from those spending on luxuries, mostly imported, to those consuming locally made products boosts manufacturing and creates jobs.

There are other intangible benefits. In South Korea, it is claimed that reduced income inequalities placed everyone “on a more or less equal footing, and individual effort and ability rather than family wealth became the most important determinant for individual success. Many believe that the Koreans’ characteristic diligence and their emphasis on education were motivated by this perception of equal opportunity”.

The wealth-generating model of capitalism we have followed has a major anomaly.

Much has been written of the failure of land reform in Pakistan but it might be futile chasing a bus we missed. While the scope for transfers and the scale of their impact remains huge because of immensely skewed distribution, landlords are now no longer the dominant players and we should adjust our thinking to the phase of development we are in.

The wealth-generating model of capitalism we have followed has a major anomaly: while it has finally accepted the logic of minimum wage, much less attention is paid to top compensation. Discussion of the wage-ratio (ratio of top to bottom salaries) has been subdued although there is nothing sacrosanct about it. It is a policy choice and recommendations vary widely across countries.

No such ratio exists in Pakistan and we need to think of one. The monthly minimum wage is Rs25,000. Imagine a wage-ratio of, say, 30 yielding a maximum monthly compensation of Rs750,000. The market could continue to determine salaries to signal scarcities but everything above the cap could be taxed away with the proceeds earmarked in a fund to benefit the country’s poorest 25 per cent. (How the fund is set up and managed are details for later.)

A positive effect would be immediate: raising the ceiling would be tied to raising the floor making the latter something to fight for rather than against. The income compression would also trigger falling prices of housing and land freeing up resources now locked in unproductive investment.

A parallel measure could limit inheritance to, say, 25pc of household wealth beyond a certain threshold with the rest going to the above-mentioned fund. This too would initiate a positive reallocation as people dispose multiple houses and plots accumulated for passing on. Consumption would rise boosting the economy.

Education can be the most important pathway to equality but the playing field can never be levelled if access remains contingent on household wealth. We could consider eliminating private education. Children could be randomly assigned to a public school within a five-mile (eight kilometres) radius of their homes where they would ideally be bussed.

Public schools are not fated to be bad; they are so because we do not care. Exclusively public school education exists successfully in Switzerland and Finland, for example, and there is no reason it cannot in Pakistan. Once Mahmud and Ayaz have to share the same bench, public schools could improve with surprising speed.

The measures mentioned here would need time to have impact. Something is also required to reshuffle the existing order faster providing opportunities for those at the bottom to move up without recourse to a social revolution.

Consider two relevant ideas: Rawls’ ‘Veil of Ignorance’ where people are asked to design a society without knowing where they might end up in it, in terms of class, location and physical condition; and, reincarnation, in which people know they would be ‘reborn’ in forms unknown to them contingent on their deeds in this world. In the abstract, these should motivate compassionate and just behaviour but in practice they have had little effect because self-interest has become overpowering under capitalism.

Is it possible to operationalise these ideas to give them teeth? Imagine households classified into, say, five categories (from the richest to the poorest) based on the type of house they occupy. When a head of household turns 30, the household is randomly reassigned to one of these categories (within the same jurisdiction thereby enabling them to retain their jobs). A household moving down would be able to upgrade its newly assigned residence with its higher income; one moving up could generate income by subletting a part of its bigger home.

Society could be reshuffled rapidly. Slums would be upgraded and sparsely populated enclaves would densify. The market would adjust to cater to the new effective demand for services like transport.

A well-designed scheme would announce a reasonable transition period before starting implementation on a yearly basis for heads of household turning 30 that year. The expectation of forthcoming change would quite likely lead to pre-emptive adjustments so that most desired effects might be achieved during the transition period itself taking the sting out of the actual reassignments. It would be too risky to allow abject poverty to continue if one might be reincarnated as an impoverished person and slighting the ‘Veil of Ignorance’ could be costly.

Many readers might deem this quixotic if they take it literally. They should consider it more a wake-up call because where things are headed the probability of social upheaval is non-zero. We need to think ahead to craft a soft landing.

Readers can contribute by coming up with their own, more feasible, ideas for a just Pakistan. It is important to take our heads out of the sand before it is too late.

In the year 1798, clergyman, mathematician and the foremost economist of his time (alongside David Ricardo) Thomas Malthus published a book, titled An Essay on the Principle of Population inhe painted a rather gloomy future for mankind. The book was a response to and a critique of the rosy projections of his father whose views was influenced by some of the leading philosophers of his day.  Young Malthus felt those rosy projections were not firmly rooted in science and therefore sought to come up with a projection based on solid mathematical reasoning.

In the book, he pointed out that while population grew geometrically, food production only grew arithmetically. Some at this point might need a refresher on geometric and arithmetic progressions. A geometric progression looks like this:

2, 4, 8, 16, 32……

While an arithmetic progression looks like this:

2, 4, 6, 8, 10……..

So Malthus’ contention was that population growth would at some point, outstrip increases in food production, as depicted in the graph above, and that undesirable events like war, famine, and pestilence would inevitably occur to restore the balance. Unsurprisingly, such a sweeping premise has stoked and continues to stoke a barrage of criticism since it was made. Yet that the debate still rages on till this day, is itself proof that Malthus’ premise contained within it considerable force. One particularly valid criticism was the one put forward by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, the founders of Marxism. Their contention was that scientific and technological progress is as unlimited and at least as rapid as that of population growth [1], and in this they have emphatically been proven right. I feel obliged to say in Malthus’ defense that when he published his book in 1798, the Industrial Revolution had only been going on for merely 40 years. There probably hadn’t been enough time for it to raise productivity levels to have discredited Malthus theories at the time he published his book. On the other hand, Karl Marx was born 1818, A full 20 years after Malthuspublished his book. As an adult, Marx got to witness first hand, industrialization working its magic, moving full steam ahead. Moreover, demographers and other scientists see Malthus’ theory, as an accurate description of pre-industrial western society [2].

Now the worrisome thing for Africa is that Malthus’ theory is seen as a valid description of contemporary Sub-Saharan Africa as Sub-Saharan economies are largely pre-industrial [3]. Now the improvements in medicine and sanitation since Malthus’ time, and the development of international markets, which make possible the importation of some machinery (which has its own attendant problems) will probably prevent the ghastliest scenarios that Malthus envisioned but Africa is most likely suffering Malthusian effects in subtler ways like higher incidence of child mortality; higher maternal mortality rates. According to WHO a Nigerian woman has a 1 in 22 lifetime risk of dying during pregnancy, childbirth or postpartum/post-abortion; whereas in the most developed countries, the lifetime risk is 1 in 4900 [4]; higher incidences of malnutrition and poverty, Nigeria in 2018 became the poverty capital of the world by having the highest number of poor people, overtaking India [5], The graph below shows that Africa will dominate the poverty rankings by 2030; and finally, a general lower quality of life. Moreover, when you combine projections of Africa’s population for this century with the continent’s penchant for fitful and intermittent economic development, the spectre of a Malthusian catastrophe looms ever larger, but first some African population history.

In 1914 according to the best estimates, Africa’s entire population was 124 million and that includes North Africa. Today it is 1.34 billion. Compared to Africa’s roughly eleven-fold increase in population, Asia’s population increased by “only” between 3 and 4 times – China’s merely tripled and India’s increased by 4.5 times [6]. In 1960, at Nigeria’s independence, Lagos had just 200,000 people. More than half a century later it has grown 100-fold to around 20m making it one of the top ten most populous cities in the world [7]. Of course, a lot of Lagos’ growth is fueled by migration from other parts of Nigeria, still by any measure, those numbers are nothing short of spectacular.

Now for future projections, most forecasts put the world’s population at roughly 11 billion by the end of the century [8]. In the period from now till the end of the century, Africa’s population is expected to grow from 1.34 billion to about 4.3 billion [9]. That is roughly about an additional 3 billion Africans. In the same timeframe, Asia’s population is projected to increase by a billion, while the populations of Europe, North and South America ae projected to remain roughly the same [10]. So all the increase is projected to come from Africa and Asia alone, with Africa producing 75% of the increase, with most of this growth coming from Sub-Saharan Africa. The graph below captures the phenomena well:

Think about what this means in terms of existing resources and infrastructure (health, education, housing, energy, transport etc.). A quadrupling of Africa’s population will indicate a need to quadruple the amount of these resources just to maintain the already inadequate levels of basic services

and amenities. Combined with an annual shortfall of 52–64% in financing for infrastructure needs in Africa (estimated at US$130 billion to 170 billion) [11], we would have the makings of a highly stressful situation possibly of Malthusian proportions.  

Some of you might be wondering why the populations of the west will not budge at all. It is because they are the beneficiaries of what is called the demographic transition. I will explain it in my next post.

BEFORE YOU GO: Please share this post with as many people as possible and please check out my book, Why Africa is not rich like America and Europe on Amazon. Thank you   

References:

1. Wikipedia article on Malthusianism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism
2. Wikipedia article on Demographic Transition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition
3. Wikipedia article on Malthusianism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism
4. Tooze, Adam Dec 17 2020 ‘Nigeria at a crossroads?’ Chartbook 10 https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-newsletter-10?s=w
5. Adebayo, Bukola June 26 2018 ‘Nigeria overtakes India in extreme poverty ranking’ cnn.com https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/26/africa/nigeria-overtakes-india-extreme-poverty-intl/index.html
6. Tooze, Adam May 14 2022 ‘Youth Quake. Why African demography should matter to the world’ Chartbook 121 https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-121-youth-quake-why-african
7. Tooze, Adam Dec 17 2020 ‘Nigeria at a crossroads?’ Chartbook 10 https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-newsletter-10?s=w
8. Rosling, Hans. 2018 Factulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About The World – And Why Things Are Better Than You Think. UK:Sceptre
9. Tooze, Adam Dec 17 2020 ‘Nigeria at a crossroads?’ Chartbook 10 https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-newsletter-10?s=w
10. Rosling, Hans. 2018 Factulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About The World – And Why Things Are Better Than You Think. UK:Sceptre
11. Jesse G, Madden P. Figures of the week: Africa’s infrastructure needs are an investment opportunity; Brookings Institution. 2019. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2019/06/27/figures-of-the-weekafricas-infrastructure-needs-are-an-investmentopportunity

Until we are able to stand for ourselves, and calmly evaluate which systems of government is good for us, we will probably flounder all over the place and continue to toxify our society. Somehow, the most vocal amongst us are also the ones who have been wired and conditioned never to think of any alternative to the Western idea of democracy. And the Westerners have continued to put money behind this democracy – perhaps unwilling to entertain any variation to it – thereby precluding the system from changing. What do I mean by this? Our democracy is too expensive. These 4-year elections are killing Nigeria financially. We have spent trillions running these elections since 1999.  And we are not even building a more cohesive society therefrom.

Expensive, in terms of time and money indeed. As the elections drew near, I realized that many people had taken leave from work. Two of my small team of staff came to take permission to take two days off before the elections. As I type this on a Monday, they are yet to resume. I actually asked one of them who was headed east whether he was certain of the safety of his journey. The problem is that some people like to vote in their native land, while others don’t mind transferring to vote where they reside. I belong to the latter group. Why would one have to take days of leave and spend so much for transportation, just to vote. Voting in Nigeria is actually quite stressful, to the extent that we must have to start evaluating this process, to ensure sustainability. I recall once voting while I lived in London. It was the easiest affair. I merely went to a voting unit at Belsize Park on a Tuesday, and went about my duties for the day. It took less than five minutes to complete the process. Now, I don’t expect that we attain that level just yet. But it looks like the process of voting here is getting more and more tedious. I and my family stood for at least five hours just to vote on Saturday 25^th February.

I believe we have tried to use technology to achieve what is behavioral, sort of giving up on ourselves and the possibility of mental reform. I believe that we are also giving up on gradualism in this matter. We are now using sledgehammer approaches to deal with issues and thereby causing more damage to the system in the process. For example, President Buhari – in his bid to leave a legacy of free and fair elections – decided to lock down the banking sector into the elections, with the connivance of the leadership of the central bank. We had people being deprived of their monies, having to climb fences to retrieve tiny fractions of what they need. People died in hospital because electronic channels seized up and cash was inaccessible. The underbelly of the banking sector was exposed – as a sector where players declare billions in profit yearly but where they operate on very flimsy infrastructure. Apart from the sheer thoughtlessness of running such a caper into an election – because of the angst, agony, and anger it generated amongst voters – the meanness of it all was galling. The human cost was unnecessary, and the damage to the people’s confidence in the financial sector, quite considerable.

The lesson to learn, for our politicians, is that they should spend more of their time and efforts concentrating on the long-term efforts that will impact the most people, rather than these kneejerk responses. Rather than inflicting more pains on the people by seizing their money because you are targeting politicians, a leader should go after mass education and ensure that standards of living improves all over the country. This is why I disagree with those who say it is not the president’s duty to tackle basic education and ensure that the 20 million odd out-of-school children problem is wrestled down. That is a problem that should keep a president awake at night. And between himself and the governors down to local governments, the president should ensure nobody rests until a huge dent is made on that problem. He should also ensure that some unstoppable processes are put in place such that even at his departure, the train keeps moving. I would advise that never again should such a thing happen before and into an election. It was just unbelievable. The people felt punished for no reason, and that provided a groundswell against the ruling party. Reckless.

Even the idea of always buying all sorts of gadgets to try and solve problems created by human beings, is egregious. We forget the principle of ‘garbage in-garbage out’.  Humans can screw up any gadget. INEC has spent probably trillions importing all sorts since we went back to democracy in 1999. Many gadgets have been bought that were supposed to be our lifesavers, that should totally cancel out fraud, that should finally sanitize the voting process. I’m sure INEC owns some of the largest warehouses of condemned devices in all of history. Many of the gadgets seize up on voting day. Many make it into the homes of political gangsters and their leaders. Many get smashed by thugs, not minding that some cost millions per unit. By the next cycle, another device will be introduced which is a gift from the heavens. This time, it is the BVAS – the Bimodal Voters’ Accreditation System. This was widely deployed. In my polling unit, there was 3 hours delay before election started because they said they forgot one and had to go and retrieve it. We were told the one on ground could only capture people with surnames starting with letters A to D – which we later found out was utter nonsense. In many places, the BVAS was totally ignored – like where one lady was busy helping old women to thumbprint for a particular party. If there would be litigations this time, they will never end.  It looks like there are guys who specialize in making billions every cycle from selling gadgets.

Other anomalies noticed this election cycle include:

1. The umpires – unfortunately including youthful youth corpers – seem not to understand that they should never show bias. How can you be a referee and openly show you support a side of the match?
2. Youth corpers and professors were caught trying to twist results for parties that paid them.
3. There was obvious intimidation especially in the SouthEast and SouthWest, with people being beat up for not voting for their popular candidate. One video showed that a polling unit was locked up and people required to identify who they wanted to vote for. Even where I voted in Abuja, there were boys who intimidated anyone who wanted to vote for the ruling party. Other people placed curses on such people openly.
4. There was violence, especially in the SouthEast and SouthWest, but not enough to invalidate general elections.
5. There were children voters as usual – more in the north. But there is a video of child voters even in the SouthEast. No evidence for such in the southwest – yet.
6. There was mass thumbprinting everywhere, including in the cosmopolitan areas of places like Lagos. Evidence shows that indeed even the upstart opposition party got involved.
7. There is evidence to show that political bosses, governors and others attempted to muscle votes. I listened to one voice note that showed it may not have worked for a particular governor down south.

One good thing this time is that there are smartphones everywhere and therefore a deluge of pictorial and video evidence for people to pore through in the coming days. There will be a lot more coming in from everywhere I reckon. What is obvious is that we are not improving as a society. And in this election, the ill-feelings of the past reared its head – especially between the east and west. The north seem stoic in its position as kingmaker with its numbers, but there was of course massive rigging even by a particular new party that has grassroots influence. Honestly, it was a dog’s meal. But at the end, the final result, stripped of the grime, still indicated a winner. Better next time. Let Nigerian leaders work on the minds of the people. We need a real revolution of ideas, policies and actions that will positively impact millions of our people and shift our thinking away from all these negativities, mutual hatred and suspicion, sense of scarcity rather than abundance, and loss of hope in an otherwise hopeful, abundant, graceful, blessed, country. I say that our younger folks need to delve into history to know that if they harbor ill-feelings against this country, it is their fault. There are too many opportunities here to make impact and live a great life. May Nigeria succeed