DAILY NIGERIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (NFEM) RATES (₦/US$)
Moving Average = 1,381.6626 (NFEM)
Previous Average = 1,411.7185
Change = +2.1290%
Forex Analysis
Prudent management of the naira has kept our moving average rising for 6 weeks in a row. CBN interventions via the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) continued this week, as well as improved liquidity from oil receipts and external reserves. The naira remained weaker in the parallel market, with rates consistently above ₦1,450/$, reflecting:
- High retail demand for dollars by importers and individuals.
- Limited official supply filtering into informal channels.
- Persistent gap between official and parallel rates, though narrowing slightly as official liquidity improved.
Confidence improved in the official window thanks to CBN transparency and liquidity injections. However, retail users continued to rely on the parallel market, keeping pressure on that segment.
Daily Crude Oil Prices
Moving Average = $68.45
Previous Average = $63.89
Change = +7.1373%
Crude Oil Analysis
Our Brent crude moving average rose by about 7%. Market activity was driven by Middle East geopolitics, OPEC+ supply discipline, shifting demand signals, and currency effects. Prices held steady near $69–70 early in the week, dipped to $67.55 on Feb 5 after U.S.–Iran talks eased risk premiums.
Concerns about potential supply disruptions kept Brent anchored near $69–70 early in the week. On Feb 5, Iran confirmed negotiations with the U.S. in Oman, reducing immediate fears of military conflict and lowering the geopolitical risk premium.
Reports indicated OPEC+ members were sticking to output cuts, tightening supply. U.S. data showing weaker private jobs numbers midweek raised concerns about slower fuel demand. This was however offset by signs of stronger manufacturing activity in China and India, supporting expectations of rising consumption.
NGX Top 10 Gainers for the week closing 6th Feb 2026
NGX Top 10 Losers for the week closing 6th Feb 2026
Stock Market Index Activity for the week closing 6th Feb 2026
Stock Market Index Analysis
Seventy-one (71) equities appreciated in price during the week, higher than forty-four (44) equities in the previous week. Thirty-five (35) equities depreciated in price, lower than forty-nine (49) equities in the previous week, while forty-two (42) equities remained unchanged, lower than fifty-five (55) recorded in the previous week.
This week, the Nigerian stock market was broadly bullish, with more equities appreciating than depreciating compared to the previous week. Overall breadth was positive, indicating a broad‑based rally across sectors.
The top gainers represented a mix of consumer goods, financials, industrials, and communications, showing that the rally was not sector‑specific but spread across diverse industries. Gains were driven by renewed investor confidence, bargain hunting, and expectations of stronger corporate earnings.
The top losers were concentrated in insurance, real estate, and logistics, sectors that faced profit‑taking and weaker sentiment. Losses were relatively contained compared to the prior week, showing that selling pressure was easing.
Fixed-Income Analysis
This week, Nigerian government securities were shaped by tight liquidity, heavy CBN interventions, and strong investor demand. Treasury bills and OMO bills saw aggressive auctions with high subscription levels, FGN bonds traded at elevated yields around 16–17%, while CBN bills were used to mop up excess liquidity amid inflationary pressures.
In Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs), the CBN offered large volumes across 91‑day, 182‑day, and 364‑day maturities. Subscription levels were strong, with cover ratios exceeding 2x. Marginal rates cleared around 15.8–18.5%, reflecting tight monetary policy and inflation expectations. Secondary market trading was firm, with short‑tenor bills seeing steady demand from banks seeking liquidity management.
In Federal Government Bonds, the 10‑year benchmark traded near 16.88%, while mid‑tenors (5–10 years) cleared around 16.55–16.80%. Demand was broad‑based, with auctions oversubscribed (2.5x cover). High yields attracted pension funds and asset managers, but tight liquidity limited aggressive positioning. Bonds rallied slightly post‑auction, showing confidence in government debt sustainability despite high borrowing costs.
In OMO bills, CBN conducted multiple OMO auctions during the week, offering long‑tenor bills (208–354 days). Demand was extremely strong with cover ratios as high as 9.9x. Bills cleared between 17.2–25.0%, reflecting investor appetite for high‑yield short‑term paper. Liquidity tightened significantly, with ₦3.79 trillion worth of OMO debits hitting the system, pushing overnight rates above 26%.
In CBN bills, yields cleared in the 15–18% range, broadly aligned with NTBs. This had the effect of sterilizing excess liquidity from maturing bills and oil revenue inflows, reinforcing the CBN’s tightening stance.
Daily Bitcoin Prices
Moving Average = $75,681
Previous Average = $88,243
Change = -14.2357%
Bitcoin Analysis
Our bitcoin moving average fell by a whopping 14% this week, with bitcoin experiencing a drop of 15% in a single day of Feb 5th. The market continued to suffer from profit-taking and fears of stricter regulatory oversight in the US and Europe. Risk sentiment in the broader macroeconomic environment also continued to encourage investors to flee to safer assets, with bitcoin a victim of the capital flight to safety.
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