GEOPOLITICS

It was a striking symbolism that the seven-star Ritz-Carlton Hotel—famous for hosting the 2017 detention of Saudi Arabia’s wealthiest princes until they relinquished large portions of their fortunes for the public good—became the venue for the 9th edition of the Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference in Riyadh.

The transformation of a space once used to restrain the powerful into a global stage for investment and innovation was not lost on me. It underscores Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s sweeping anti-corruption purge, which saw several princes and billionaires detained on charges ranging from money laundering to bribery and abuse of office. Analysts widely agree that the move was aimed at consolidating power, tackling corruption, and advancing the reforms underpinning Vision 2030, launched in 2016 as the crown prince assumed de facto leadership from his aging father.

Notable detainees included Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal, Prince Mutaib bin Abdullah (former head of the National Guard), Prince Fahd bin Abdullah (a former deputy defence minister), Prince Khaled bin Talal, and businessmen Amr Al-Dabbagh and Bakr bin Laden.

Reports and legends around the episode suggest that the Ritz-Carlton was converted into a makeshift prison, with some accounts alleging coercion to compel asset disclosures. The purge led to massive asset recoveries and solidified Mohammed bin Salman’s authority.

This episode bears relevance for Africa. Many African nations remain plagued by financial sleaze, and while the Saudi approach may appear harsh, it has undeniably cleaned up entrenched corruption. There are lessons here for Africa’s struggle to escape its worsening debt trap stemming from graft by its leaders who often dip their hands into the treasuries of their countries and end up being richer than their countries.

Across the continent, leaders frequently face criticism for personal opulence amid widespread poverty, poor healthcare, and inadequate education. Some leaders openly flaunt extravagant lifestyles even as their countries drown in debt—unlike in Saudi Arabia, where excess wealth was forcibly curtailed for national renewal. One need only recall the legendary extravagance of Mobutu Sese Seko of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Returning to the Ritz-Carlton—once a holding ground for the wealthy elite—it hosted the opening cocktails for FII9, attended by 21 heads of state and more than 8,000 participants from across the world. The main conference venue, the King Abdulaziz International Conference Centre, was a buzzing hub where global investors and innovators mingled freely.

A Gathering of Global Heavyweights

Beyond the 21 heads of state, the event drew over 8,000 business leaders, among them:
• Bill Ackman, CEO, Pershing Square
• Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO, JPMorgan Chase
• Jane Fraser, CEO, Citibank
• Laurence Fink, Chairman and CEO, BlackRock
• Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and CEO, TotalEnergies
• Amin Nasser, President and CEO, Aramco
• Yasir Al-Rumayyan, Governor, Public Investment Fund (PIF)

Also present were Donald Trump Jr. of 1789 Capital; U.S. Deputy Energy Secretary James Danly; WTO Director-General Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala; Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike; China’s Vice President Han Zheng; and Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian President’s special envoy.

On many occasions, these global power brokers and royalty could be seen riding together on golf carts from the Ritz-Carlton to the conference venue—a reminder of the relaxed but deeply influential nature of the gathering.

Africa’s own Aliko Dangote, alongside other top investors and leading firms such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Groq amongst others too many to list, participated actively in the conversations framed under the theme “The Key to Prosperity.” With over 600 speakers across 250 sessions, FII9 has rightly been dubbed “Davos in the Desert.”

FII vs. WEF: A New Era of Inclusion?

The comparison with the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos is unsurprising. But unlike Davos—held in the freezing Swiss Alps, often seen as inaccessible to many Africans—FII takes place under warm Arabian skies and appears more inclusive.

Critics of WEF have long debated whether its icy conditions conveniently deter anti-globalization protesters or inadvertently exclude participants from warmer regions, particularly Africans. The contrast with Riyadh is stark: FII is emerging as a platform where Africa is neither sidelined nor ignored.

This shift is refreshing. For decades, Africa was relegated to the role of a raw materials supplier—a position cemented during the 1884/85 Berlin Conference, when European powers partitioned Africa without a single African at the table. As Nigerians say, it was akin to “shaving a man’s head in his absence.”

The consequences have been dire. Raw materials leave Africa cheaply, only to be processed abroad—especially in Europe and Asia—creating jobs there while finished products are sold back to Africans at steep costs. Africa’s share of global trade remains under 3%.
How to redress the unfair trade situation is the focus of my forthcoming book: Africa, Exporting Wealth, Importing Poverty. Is Africa Sinking Or Thinking?”

A New Promise: Prosperity for All

The FII9 theme—“Prosperity for All”—signals an emerging intent from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf to correct past inequities. The symbolic “key” handed to every participant reinforced the idea that shared prosperity is the new global imperative.

This suggests a major paradigm shift in how Africa is being perceived and integrated into global economic conversations—just as the Fourth Industrial Revolution gathers momentum.

Before exploring that further, it is useful to briefly outline what the four industrial revolutions entail.

They are broken down as follows:

The First Industrial Revolution (1760s–1840s) centered on steam power, mechanization, and the shift from manual labour to machines, particularly in textile manufacturing and steam engines.

The Second Industrial Revolution (1870s–1914) introduced mass production, electrification, and assembly lines. Henry Ford’s Model T is widely regarded as the icon of that era.

The Third Industrial Revolution (1960s–2000s) ushered in computers, automation, and the rise of the digital age. Africa only caught the tail end of this revolution through the GSM mobile telephony system, which allowed the continent to scale up telecommunications services it had previously missed.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution (2000s–present) is driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, and the fusion of physical and digital systems.

With Africa now being factored into this fourth industrial wave—largely propelled by AI—it is encouraging that Saudi Arabia, through the FII, is working to integrate the continent into the global industrial ecosystem. It suggests that Africa may no longer be left behind, as happened during the European partition of the continent in 1884/85, roughly 180 years ago.

To reinforce its commitment to Africa’s inclusion in global growth, the FII Institute, backed by Saudi Arabia, launched a study titled Global Future of Work Report. Its fourth edition focuses specifically on Africa under the subtitle: “Enabling Africa’s Youth in the Age of AI.”

The study examines labour markets in sub-Saharan Africa and the implications of demographic changes and emerging technologies for the future of work. It is anchored on three key themes:
1. Sub-Saharan Africa’s Untapped Labour Force: Turning a Demographic Dividend into Future Growth.
2. A Technology-First Era: How Sub-Saharan Africa Can Leapfrog.
3. Pathways to Building a Youthful, Productive, and AI-Enabled Workforce.

Conducted by McKinsey on behalf of FII, the report correctly identifies Africa—home to the world’s youngest population—as a potential powerhouse for supplying human talent for the global AI revolution. The continent is being positioned as a future pool of AI-related human resources for the world.

Before shifting its attention to Africa, previous editions of the FII series examined:
• Labour markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) under the title Preparing Labor Markets in MENA for a New Technological Era;
• The Future of Work in Latin America;
• And The Future of Work in Europe, which explored how developed economies are managing AI adoption amid aging populations.

The fourth and current edition focuses on Africa—the youngest region globally, with up to 60% of its population under age 24 and a workforce projected to reach 800 million by 2050.

What stands out for me in this Africa-focused report is the recognition of Africans’ innate ability to leverage AI for industrial development. Beyond identifying the continent’s vast human resource potential, the report signals that a region long neglected—contributing less than 3% to global trade—may finally be awakened. For a continent of 54 nations of the 195 in the world recognized by the United Nations, UN, this renewed attention is significant. If FII9’s mission materializes, Africa may be offered a much-needed new lease of life.

However, the Africa Report also highlights a troubling pattern: Africa’s growth has been driven mainly by population, not productivity.

For instance, Saudi Arabia—with a population of roughly 40 million—launched its Vision 2030 agenda in 2016 with a target of achieving a trillion-dollar economy. According to Yasir Al-Rumayyan, Governor of the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Chairman of Aramco, the kingdom is set to hit that milestone in its economic report this year.

As Al-Rumayyan noted:
“Back in 2015, PIF’s assets under management were around $150 billion. Today, they are almost triple that number, and we aim to reach $1 trillion by the end of this year— we are very close.”

In contrast, Nigeria—with a population estimated to be 220 million, nearly eight times that of Saudi Arabia—remains a $243 billion economy in 2024, far from its one trillion-dollar target. Given its ongoing energy insecurity, the dream of becoming a trillion-dollar economy by 2030 appears increasingly unrealistic.

That is because Nigeria currently generates only 5,000 megawatts of electricity—an abysmally low figure that severely hampers industrial growth. Without solving this energy deficit, Nigeria’s trillion-dollar ambition risks becoming a mere pipe dream.

This concern was expressed by Mr. Tony Elumelu, Chairman of UBA and Heirs Holdings, who was a panelist on Day 2 of the conference. Speaking during The Board of Change Makers: Financial Markets session, he emphasized that while Africa presents vast investment opportunities, unlocking them requires first overcoming energy poverty.

Other Nigerian participants included WTO Director-General Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, and Adebayo Ogunlesi, all of whom featured in sessions with some of the world’s most influential economic and political leaders. Nigeria’s Minister of State for Industry, Mr. John Enoh, also participated as a panelist.

I had the privilege of being selected for a special conclave—akin to the conclave of bishops who elect the Pope—tasked with critically examining how Africa can become the global pool of human capital to drive AI deployment worldwide.
Sessions.
The theme of the Conclave “How Can Leaders Position Africa As The Future AI & Technology-Based Talent Pool?” was quite provocative. If you can imagine the Conclave of the bishops who appoint the pope, then you would better understand the sole purpose of our mandate which was to critically examine, without fear of reprimand or sanction how Africa can be the pool of human resources to power the deployment of AI across the world.

So, l entered the conclave with the intention to provoke a robust discussion by posing the question of whether the exercise is not to re-enact the exploitation of Africa which happened via the partitioning of the continent by Europeans in the 1884/5 Berlin, Germany conference?
There was a pushback by the Conclave co-chaired by Prof. Yanis Ben Amor, exec. Dir. Centre For Sustainable Development, at the Climate school, and Asst. Prof., Columbia University, Jawad Khan, Head of Workforce Development, National Development, PIF, and Alice Ruhweza, CEO, AGRA who allayed my suspicion.

Upon the clarification that there was no such sinister motive, l reminded members that Africa has apart from serving as the source of raw materials to the world has also been the source of human resources in the form of slaves forcefully removed from the continent through the infamous trans-Atlantic slave trade. That ignoble activity that saw verile African men and women taken to Europe in chains and packed like sardine in ships sailing across the atlantic sea for use as slave labor in the UK, then later sold off to merchants who put them to work in sugarcane plantations in the Carrbean before being also shipped to the New Found Land, a location currently known as the United States of America, USA to work in cotton plantations and building infrastruture in those countries helped to create the the foundation or the building blocks that made both the UK and US the beautiful and successful nations that they are today.

Invariably and ultimately, it is Africa’s workforce that is instrumental to the building of the UK and the US and it is the labor from the continent that has continued to help shape some of the world’s most strategic nations even after the slave trade ended.
It is noteworthy that Africa, especially Nigeria has continued to provide the rest of the world with medical health personnel- be they doctors, nurses, or laboratory technicians. Although, the migration of Africans became more obvious since the BREXIT in the UK, which compelled Europeans to exit the country forcing it to recruit personnel from African countries to fill the gap, in the Middle East, particularly the Gulf nations have over the past two (2) or more decades turned to Africa for their medical personnel needs.
To a large extent, a similar situation applies to Africans with skills in modern technology, particularly Information Technology, IT who have migrated in droves to overseas countries to ply their trade.
So, the quest to rely on Africa as a pool for AI skills to serve the world is not new but practical and realizable. That is provided it would be on Africa’s terms for mutually beneficial relationships rather than exploitation was the case nearly two (2) millennia ago.

One was amazed that some members of the Conclave had argued that Africa should not engage in the Al race simply because the continent is still ravaged by poverty, it has a lot of out-of-school children and it is riddled with diseases. So, addressing such misfortunes should be prioritized over the AI race and adoption. As a counterpoint
I reminded the audience that the US and China which are leading the AI race also have a significant number of the poor and disease-stricken in their society. The streets of Washington, DC, New York, Los Angeles, and other major cities in the USA are full of very poor people in the midst of opulence. The same situation applies to China where although about 300 million are said to have been lifted out of poverty in the past two decades, very poor millions abound in that country. One only needs to travel out to Berjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou, etc to witness the grim level of poverty in that country.
Unable to exhaust the conversation in one sitting, we all agreed to continue the debate online via Zoom or Microsoft Teams.

In the final analysis, it is gratifying that Africa is finally on the verge of playing a critical role of being the much vaunted new frontier. That is because the push for it to attain that long sought status has received a boost from Fll 9 underscoring the fact that leaders in the Gulf region, in this case Saudi Arabia do not make plans that they do not implement.
Conversely, leaders in Africa have also made future development plans similar to the Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s Vision 2030 which was introduced in 2016. But they did not see the light of day as they remained largely unimplemented. Take
Nigeria for example. It had also had Vision 2020. But most of its goals were not attained in the manner that the Saudi authorities pursued their plans diligently with expected outcomes. Based on records, apart from Nigeria, several African countries have also drawn up future development plans similar to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.
Examples abound.

Ghana Vision 2020 aimed to make Ghana a developed country between 2020 and 2029 and a newly industrialized country between 2030 and 2039.
Rwanda has a development plan called Vision 2050, which aims to transform the country into a high-income economy by 2050.
South Africa has a National Development Plan (NDP) that outlines the country’s development goals up to 2030.
Egypt has a development plan called Vision 2030, which aims to make Egypt a knowledge-based economy and improve the standard of living for its citizens.
Morocco has a development plan called Vision 2025, which aims to make Morocco a competitive and innovative economy.

While the plans look good on paper, most of the countries, except perhaps Rwanda have hardly diligently executed their plan with consistency and the vigor it deserves. Unsurprisingly Rwandan president Mr.Paul Kagame, was one of the presidents in attendance at Fll 9 in Riyadh from 27th to 30th October.
One of the reasons African leaders are largely unable to implement their long-term plans like their
Counterparts in the Gulf region are the systems of government in practice.
Whereas the monarchical system in the Arab world guarantees long reign of leaders(the current king has been on the throne since 2015 (10 years) with the crown prince being on the driver’s seat from 2022-three years ago ) the democratic system in
operation in most African nations makes leaders’ time in office tenured. Most times they are only constitutionally allowed to serve only two terms of 4-5 years each. So, unlike monarchs whose reign could be perpetual, leaders in democracies do not have the luxury of time enjoyed by monarchs. As such they often do not have enough time to implement long-term visions in the manner that it has happened in Saudi Arabia.

Again, although Kegami of Rwanda is a democratically elected president, in reality he acts like a monarch. Hence he has been in the leadership of the country for about 25 years having become the leader in April 2000. Strikingly, he is in his fourth term in office.
That throws up the question: between democracy and monarchy which is a better system of government in a developing economy? What suits the industrialized and advanced societies of the Western world may not he suitable for developing /African nations where a monarchical system is cultural and by consensus rather than the acquired or imposed Western democratic system which is alien and therefore difficult to imbibe.
Evidently, leaders in the Arab world do not just plan but are diligent in implementation.
For instance, to ensure that his Vision 2030 plan was well executed, the Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman engaged the services of Richard Attias who is the CEO of FII Institute. He has played a significant role in shaping Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative (FII).
He had worked in the World Economic Forum, in Davos between 1995-2008 as a producer before he was approached in 2017 by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to create a global conversation platform for investors, which eventually morphed into the FII Institute. Thus Attias’ expertise in event organization and communication strategy helped bring Saudi Arabia into the global economic spotlight. It is a tribute to the Saudi crown prince that he is visionary enough to hatch a plan and seek out an expert outside his orbit but with the right pedigree to do the job effectively and efficiently.
Through FII, Attias has facilitated deals worth over $128 billion, attracting global leaders, investors, and entrepreneurs to discuss innovation, technology, and economic growth.

In his welcome remarks at Fll 9 on the 30th of October, Attias acknowledged the attendance of the CEO of WEF while reiterating how formidable Fll conferences have become.
“Every society is asking the same question: How can we build a future that is more sustainable, inclusive, and humane.
And speaking of inclusion, FII is so inclusive this year that we even welcomed the president of WEF. We thought it was time he came to see for himself that we are not in the desert anymore”
Although, my wish is that the next Fll which will be no 10 should be held in Nigeria, it is scheduled to be held in Tokyo Japan.
Hopefully, after Japan, it would be Nigeria’s turn to host the Fll 11 conference in 2027.
Perhaps at that time, Nigeria would be ready if President Bola Tinubu’s bold reforms which could potentially be as far-reaching as Saudi Crown Prince Salman’s change initiative that have repositioned, defined, and placed “Saudi Arabia at the center of new global partnerships that redefine what progress means in the age of intelligence.” begins to manifest not only in statistics but also in lived experience.

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, and alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, is a Commonwealth Institute scholar and a former commissioner in the Delta State government sent this piece from Lagos.