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So, in Kenya they have had this MPESA innovation in payment systems which makes it easy for commerce especially at the micro level. This innovation has been around since 2007 and has helped greatly in financial and economic inclusion by enabling the poorest of the poor to get finances through transfers and remittances, but most importantly for their trades. M-PESA (which stands for M for Mobile, and Pesa for the Swahili word for money or payment) must have lifted many millions from abject poverty. They don’t have to enter the snazzy offices of local banks to get involved in commerce. They are also enabled to avoid many banking fees. This is technological enablement, and it is remarkable that it has been on for 16 years in East Africa.  Nigeria is only recently trying to play catchup with those account where your phone number is also your account number. People here still go through many difficulties making simple payments here and we have only recently passed through an incredibly difficult time with some experiments by our apex bank here to get people to adopt electronic payment by force.

In Kenya I found something different. Totally different. You can withdraw up to 40,000 Kenyan Shillings in a single withdrawal at any Automated Teller Machine (ATM). This is like N220,000. And you can do that several times daily. So, through ATMs you can withdraw at least an equivalent of about N1million a day. BUT most people don’t use cash. Cash has become an oddity even for the poorest. It’s unlikely a taxi driver will find change for you if you hand him cash. So there comes M-PESA. Once you get a Safaricom sim card you can load money on it from your local account or with cash. It makes your life easier on the streets. Banana sellers and street vendors use M-PESA.  It’s so quick and easy. The confirmation text arrives immediately. Click on the app, click SEND MONEY, add phone number and amount, add your 4-digit password and boom! It is done. 20 seconds inside traffic. Even BEGGARS in front of the malls remind you they take MPESA.

And MPESA is used in the entire East Africa. They’ve somehow been able to extend its use up to Pakistan and Bangladesh, as well as south African countries like Zambia, Malawi, and Botswana. All you need to send a daily maximum of 200,000 Kenyan Shillings (close to N1.2 million if you use our street rates) to a friend or business partner for any purpose, is that app, and 20 seconds. I can imagine the velocity of transactions in that region, and the financial, economic and market integration. The cooperation in that region is palpable especially with a few countries like Uganda and Rwanda being landlocked yet they clear their goods seamlessly and the economies are growing.

Now, I have passed through many agonies trying to make payments to people in Ghana for instance. That is our sister anglophone country in Africa. Forget trying to make payments to francophone countries in West Africa. Forget places like Sierra Leone or Liberia or The Gambia where they also speak English. Forget next door in Niger, Chad, Cameroon or Benin. You have to go through black market/illegal channels and you are seriously on your own if anything goes wrong. I don’t know if Moniepoint, Palmpay, Opay and the rest who have come up in Nigeria now have cross-border capabilities. I doubt. These things take deliberateness and mindful planning and cooperation. The last time I was running around Ecobank trying to make a payment in Ghana…with no luck. I once had to send Western Union from London to Ghana to a Nigerian friend at great cost when I could have used something akin to M-PESA.

West Africa is lagging the world on most indices. And Nigeria is a major factor for that lag. We need to step up and do more.  If francophone countries are not cooperating let us talk with anglophone countries. East Africans are surging ahead. I looked at Nigerian banks in Kenya…UBA, GT, Access etc.. and they looked like fish out of water. They have little business in Kenya. I doubt if they are growing too. Kenyan financial market is far more developed than ours. Kenya is leveraging on tech development for its financial sector and they have about 30 local banks and 20 foreign banks including those from India such as Bank of Baroda and Bank of India,  ABSA and FirstRand from South Africa, Standard Chartered from UK, Bank of Kigali from Rwanda, Bank of China, Dubai Islamic Bank, Citibank, JPMorgan, Habib Bank Zurich and others.

Nigeria’s financial sector had better take urgent notice and wake up. Our Banks should also ensure that they are not stymieing innovations because of short term dominance.  Central Bank of Nigeria should also ensure it does serious research within Africa before solidifying some of its policies. East Africa has a lot to teach us. No wonder I felt the economic buzz in Kenya. I felt immediately that they had built a resilient economy that was including the poorest of the poor. No nation is perfect by the way.

Fun fact. I saw one ATM that disbursed US Dollar at SARIT CENTRE. It belongs to I&M Bank. I was like ‘impossible’. That dollar part of the ATM will be empty. I tried it though. And I was wrong. Lo and behold the thing worked! People could withdraw $2,000 at a go, or more. Honestly, I was shocked. You couldn’t even do this in the UAE or UK! I asked myself ‘how come Kenyans aren’t queueing up emptying the dollars’? They simply are not interested. Kenyans know their place and are working upwards gradually but surely. Not even the inherent but subtle racism and tribalism in their system can stop them. So, I see it as a great favour when Uhuru Kenyatta comes here to share experience. Here, we don’t know our places. Everybody is a big man. Kenyans are corrupt but they keep their money in their country.  Here we are totally externalised in our thinking. It starts with thinking it’s an achievement to send your children to nursery schools abroad, or to ‘japa’ and live there. Young and old, we hold our country in disdain. Our governments have serious faults. But so do we the people. I saw that like Europe, or Morocco or Rwanda, most of the cars of Kenyan streets are small 1.3litre engine cars; cars that many Nigerians will never be caught dead driving. We usually have a derogatory name or another for such cars.

Fun fact number 2. Petrol sells for 182.5. Higher grade Shell sells for 190 Shillings.  If 137 Shillings equals one US Dollar, and 760 naira equals $1, then multiply 182.5 by 5.55. That is N1,012 per litre for petrol. I wondered how they survive it, but they do. Your uber/bolt is likely to veer off into the next filling station without even asking you to by just 5 litres of petrol and then move on.

Back to the question? Where is West Africa’s MPESA? What is all the gragra about our smart bankers? Is Nigerian banking stuck in the past? Perhaps endangered?  No wonder it was easy for the Kenyan Central Bank to single out and slam some of our fintech companies for alleged money laundering. Their system is just quite advanced out East, and surveillance is sharp. We need to really wake up out West. Who will bell the cat?

As we all must have learnt from the unfortunate and nerve wracking events of 25 February in our political space,most of our political actors that are always ahead of the system aimed at checkmating them in their excesses,have as usual proven to be ahead of the system aimed at reigning them in.
Before proceeding further,to enable us concentrate on the basic implications of the complicated general elections whose outcome is casting a very dark shadow on our country, I would like to crave the indulgence of readers to permit me to leave out the granular details of the apparent contradictions embedded in the Electoral Act 2022 to experts on constitutional matters who are already bracing up for the legal fire works.
It needs to be pointed out that in a rather paradoxical manner ,as things currently appear, technology that was introduced to solve an existential challenge with the conduct of elections which borders on integrity of the ballots,arising from ballot snatching and hijacking of sensitive materials etc,has created a new type of crisis.
It may be recalled that when in 2015 technology was introduced into the electioneering process via the Smart Card Reader, SCR and Temporary Voters Card,TVC to mitigate ugly incidents of rigging and the peril of relying on incidents forms that were provided as the alternative in situations where the smart card system malfunctions,unscrupulous politicians decided to bypass the use of the SCR and TVC for conducting elections.
Instead they converted the incident forms which is supposed to be the backup into the main stream process. Thus the SCR which is supposed to be the first line of action,became the back up.
To fix that unanticipated challenge,INEC introduced a more sophisticated solution leveraging Artificial Intelligence,AI known as Bi-Modal Verification and Accreditation System,BVAS.
Before 2015, INEC under the leadership of Prof Atahiru Jega had introduced biometric registration and finger prints of voters. But it did not provide enough sage guards against voter frauds such as accreditation and over voting amongst others.
The BVAS was considered as an excellent solution that would help eliminate other identified issues associated with the SCR earlier highlighted.
Again,political actors have apparently perfected ingenious ways to compromise the BVAS by once again circumventing the rule that demands that it is the records of those that were accredited and voted as captured by the BVAS that should be the source of data for determining the number of voters that got accredited and voted in the respective 176,856 polling units set up by INEC across the country.
Put succinctly,data from BVAS is supposed to be the authentic raw material as it were for producing the results of the election.
As demanded by the reformed Electoral Act 2022,the back up for the use of BVAS in situations where it malfunctions,is the use of form EC8A which is complemental to the use of the BVAS.
But owing to the disingenuous nature of some politicians who always find their way around obstacles,as was the case with SCR,the complementary line of action which is Incident Form with regards to SCR and EC8A form which applies to BVAS,now has become the preferred source for collating results by both politicians and election authorities.
What that implies is that public funds in excess of three hundred billion naira (N300b) which is hard earned money expended by INEC on the 2023 elections might have gone down the drain simply because the elections umpire failed to achieve the objective for which the humongous sum was appropriated.
The assertion above derives from the fact that the BVAS which was touted as a panacea to the incidence of fraud encountered in the past voting processed , ranging from over voting,ballot stuffing and snatching,as well as hijacking of essential and sensitive materials such as result sheets with which fraudulent results are produced,has turned out to produce the opposite results. It is regrettable that BVAS which was supposed to be the cure to all the identified ills in the electioneering process,except vote buying has turned out to be an antithesis of election 2023.
That is because the prime thing that the chairman of INEC Prof Mahmoud Yakubu promised,was the commitment that the result of the polls would be transmitted electronically from the polling units into lNEC sever or data base real-time-online.
The undertaking from lNEC encouraged a lot of Nigerians, especially the youths and young at heart who were hitherto skeptical of the integrity of our elections.
As such,they got persuaded to register and vote based on their conviction that Prof Yakubu is bonded by his promise
to leverage technology and it did not look like Invitation To Treat in contract law, which it has turned out to be.
But after the election was called,in the early hours of 1st of March, without relying on data obtained by BVAS driven by technology as promised by the INEC chairman,disappointed and crest fallen Nigerians, would not have any other option than to deem the promise by the electoral empire as a trick.
It is worthy of note that,although voter accreditation was carried out with BVAS which captures the potential voter’s finger mark and facial recognition as a means of identification,unscrupulous politicians in concert with some compromised officials of the INEC have allegedly once again found ways to circumvent that technology.
Hence results recorded in the EC8A form which is manipulatable as opposed to what is captured by BVAS were relied upon for collating the results of the election and why the recently held presidential and National Assembly elections are being disputed.
In a nutshell it is the reason the 25 February 2023 election outcome is being alleged to have been tainted and its integrity is being contested, just as it is also responsible for the life of Nigeria as a country hanging in the balance.
While the debate on whether the issue of winning 25% of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT,Abuja votes is also a precondition in addition to winning the highest number of votes cast nationwide and in at least 25% of the 36 states in our country before being declared a winner of the presidential contest is also raging,it is not as consequential and therefore not a major factor. That is basically because of the doctrine of substantial compliance with the act justified by the belief or reality that no election can be perfect.
In deed the 1993 contest between Chief Awolowo and Alhaji Shagari produced numbers that were not perfect,particularly with respect to 2/3rd majority of 19 states which the court concluded was 12 and 1/2 which was not perfect, but it met the reasonable compliance threshold.
In defense of the mandate that INEC has given him,the ruling APC’s candidate , Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu,now president-elect and his presidential campaign team have stated that there is no compulsion to transmit the election result electronically as expected by the opposition. They also push back on wining 25% of votes in the FCT being a requirement for the mandate to be complete for consummation.
Apparently,the much celebrated Electoral Act 2022 is that nebulous and clearly requires being revisited by the 10th when it is inaugurated.
In a twist which is to the chagrin of the parties alleging that the 25 February election was rigged in favor of the declared winner, senate president,Dr Ahmed Lawan under whose watch the electoral act was passed in 2022 has pushed back during a senate session,by stating that the Electoral Act 2023 being relied upon by those at odds with INEC’s verdict did not mandate electronic transmission of the results from the polling unit.
Rather,he made a case that it is a promise made by the chairman of INEC,Professor Mahmud Yakubu who is the elections umpire who had the discretion,but failed to keep his promise to send the results electronically to the server of the commission.
As such ,it is being argued that it is a moral rather than legal issue.
As Friedrich Nietzsche a German philosopher and cultural critic once wrote:
“All things are subject to interpretation. Whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power & not truth.”
So,some of the aggrieved political parties and their candidates have headed to the tribunals.
And in the light of the above development,the collective destiny of Nigerians has once again been handed over to the interpretative society which is the judiciary for determination.
Although courts have been known to have dethroned monarchs such as the emir of kano and Obong of Calabar ; state governors such as Celestine Omehia in Rivers state and Emeka lhiedioha of lmo state as well as Oserheimen Osunbor of Edo state: never has any court or tribunal upturned the election of a democratically elected president of Nigeria.
In the African continent,upturning a presidential election has only happened in Kenya and Malawi.
According to Africaportal.org a website focused on democracy and development in Africa:
“In Feb. 12, the Malawi High Court upheld its original decision to nullify the country’s May 2019 presidential election, and decreed that the poll must be rerun within 150 days. Malawi has thus become only the second African country, after Kenya in 2017, to have had a presidential election annulled by the courts. But although the High Court’s ruling is a promising sign of judicial independence in one of the world’s poorest countries, the experience of Kenya suggests that rerunning elections may not necessarily restore faith in fragile democracies.”
Strikingly, the website reported that:
“Malawi’s one-round presidential election was essentially a three-horse race, won by the incumbent Peter Mutharika with 38.6% of the vote. The result prompted widespread protests and a nine-month court case led by the opposition,which alleged that there had been massive irregularities, including the use of Tipp-Ex correction fluid to alter the results sheets.”
Does the Malawi situation not bear very close resemblance and look similar to what allegedly happened in Nigeria during the 25 February elections which as also a three horse race ?
With the level of disaffection and dissatisfaction of the opposing political parities about the outcome of the 25 February presidential and NASS elections in Nigeria, our courts are already receiving suits from the aggrieved who are seeking to overturn the presidential election.
Remarkably,about 89 senior advocates of Nigerian SAN, (which is unprecedented) ahave been engaged and arrayed by the two aggrieved political parties -PDP and LP against the ruling APC and its candidate that was declared the winner and currently the president-elect.
Are we on the cusp of a monumental political development that would change the narrative about presidential election contests and disputations or the challenge in court would just serve the purpose of deepening our jurisprudence in electoral matters,by so doing close the loopholes in the current electoral act,and set precedents and parameters for the future?
At least the Electoral Act 2022 had made a provision for anticipated litigations to be wrapped up before 29 May date set for the inauguration of the next president.
And from 1st March when the election was called in favor of the APC candidate to May 29 for the swearing-in-ceremony, there is a window of about three months within which the Supreme Court would seat over the matter and give judgment.
That is because one of the beauties in the Electoral Act 2022 is that it demands that the disputes between opposing candidates and parties to determine winners and losers must be concluded by the tribunals before the inauguration date for the president and governors.
That is why the span of time between the date of election and Inauguration day was stretched further than in the past.
According to Marc Elias, a democratic lawyer,former United States of America, USA president Mr Donald Trump and his allies filed 62 lawsuits in state and federal courts seeking to overturn election results in states the president lost in the 2020 presidential election won by president Joe Biden.
Ideally ,the court which is the temple of justice and the last bastion of democracy, because it is meant to be an impartial arbiter is also currently suffering from trust deficit from Nigerians.
That is as a result of recent judgements issued by the apex court which most Nigerians consider to be opaque and incomprehensible.
As such the judiciary,particularly the Supreme Court which was thought to be incorruptible has been receiving attacks from the civil society organizations and the public in general who are accusing judicial officers of being compromised.
Casting aspersions on the judiciary that is the interpretative society and third arm of government in a presidential governance system consisting of a tripod of Executive,Legislative and Judicial arms in a functional democracy is the lowest level possible that our country has sunken.
The opprobrium and vote of no confidence on the judiciary are engendered by a series of judgements from the courts which pundits aver are opaque and below par,therefore are being characterized as purchased judgements from magistrates courts,high courts to appeal courts and even to the highest level of Supreme Court.
In recent times, public odium on the judiciary has been so palpable that the spokesman of the Supreme Court Dr Festus Akande recently lashed out in a media statement warning its critics of consequences,if the fourth estate of the realm continues to question the legal and moral contents of the decisions of the highly exalted members of the temple of justice.
The recent outburst from the Supreme Court through its spokesman is an attitude that most Nigerians have interpreted as an attempt to gag not only the media,but the general public:
“It is so disheartening to learn that some individuals and groups of persons who ought to know better and even assume the revered positions of role models to a larger proportion of the citizens are now sadly, the very ones flagrantly displaying ignorance and infantilism in the course of defending the indefensible”.
If l were to be in a position to advise the Supreme Court and indeed the judiciary on how to shore up its sagging reputation,
l would recommend that it starts explaining its judgements instead of lampooning those who question them for lack of clarity.
That approach is in tune with the often quoted aphorism: “Justice must not only be done, but must also be seen to be done” which is a dictum laid down by Lord Hewart,the then Lord Chief Justice of England in the case of Rex v. Sussex Justices, [1924].
Without the critical mass of Nigerians buying into Supreme Court judgements, which is tending towards being the case rather than the exception lately,only the former part of the referenced Lord Hewart’s admonition would have been adhered to while ignoring the later part “…but must be seen to be done”.
That is the crisis of confidence that is currently besetting the judiciary with the Supreme Court steadily,but unwittingly pushing itself into the vortex of skepticism that has aggregated it into the trust deficit synonymous with government and governance in our country.
It is in the context of the apparent and underlying absurdities in the judiciary that a very consequential presidential and NASS elections have been held.
With a controversial outcome, two of the eighteen political parties that contested are disagreeing with the verdict and they are seeking justice in the same courts that are receiving public bashing.
Is that not problematic?
It has also not helped matters that the INEC Chairman,has not deemed it fit to apprise Nigerians of the wisdom in his jettisoning of the provision of the Electoral Act 2022 which mandates him to transmit or transfer election results captured in the the BVAS into the IReV which is a portal for viewing result for the purpose of transparency.
Although a clause in the electoral act is being said to have given the election umpire the discretion of determining the method of transmission of the results,the chairman of INEC is on record to have made a personal commitment in multiple press conferences both in Nigeria and Chatham House, London, United Kingdom, Uk to transfer the data from BVAS straight into IReV real-time online for final collation of the result.
There is no doubt that Nigerians deserve to know what made Prof Yakubu change his mind!
As the major advocate for the use of technology in conducting elections with which he had successfully and creditably delivered governorship elections in Delta Edo,Anambra and Osun states,plus the fact that the same rule is clearly spelt out in INEC elections guidelines,it beggars belief that the electoral umpire would flout his own rule and remain mum instead of a least trying to justify his action.
What has gone amiss,Nigerians are literally dying to know.
As the conventional wisdom goes: silence is golden.
But Prof Yakubu’s silence on this occasion can not be golden. That is because only he, can redeem himself .
Not Mr Festus Okoye-the commissioner in charge of voter education or the Chief Press Secretary, CPS to INEC,Mr Rotimi Oyekanmi,who have only started speaking nearly two weeks after the polls were conducted.
The anxiety is underscored by the fact that by continuing to demur, Prof Yakubu is raising the tempo of agitation and heating up the polity which is not good for Nigerians or even in the best interest of the ruling APC and its presidential standard bearer, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu,who has assumed the status of president-elect.
I can wager a bet that the ex governor of Lagos state,APC leader and political power broker would not like to kick off his leadership of our cherished country while it is enmeshed in the chaotic atmosphere that the disputed election process has engendered as we are all actually caught up in a gale of election controversy and bubble.
So,the silence-of-the-grave posture that the INEC boss has assumed is hurting rather than helping Nigeria and Nigerians.
Critical nations in the global community were here to monitor the elections and they departed our shores with unfulfilled expectations after witnessing embarrassingly high level of malpractices in the course of the election exercise.
They comprise of the powerful delegations representing the International Republican lnstitute, lRl,and National Democratic Institute,NDI which are influential think-tanks from the USA, top members of the European Union,EU and the African Union,AU members including a handful of ex-presidents of South Africa, Ghana , kenya, Malawi and Liberia amongst others that were on ground in Nigeria to monitor the exercise.
But they left our shores highly disappointed in the outcome which they have adjudged as not fair, free and transparent,therefore not a reflection of the wish of Nigerians.
As such,our country is already suffering a deficit of confidence from an array of critical stakeholders from strategic nations around Africa and the Western world that could have automatically become brand ambassadors for Nigeria if things had not gone awry.
Indeed, were the conduct of the 25 February elections to have been fair, free,transparent and credible as president Buhari had vowed it would be,and Prof Yakubu had reiterated,Nigeria could have had all the earlier listed Very Important Personalities,VIPs from Africa and the Western world as champions of Nigerian cause,or Nigerian brand evangelists as well as Nigerian cause advocates in their respective home countries.
That could have been one of the major gains from 2023 elections for the greater good of Nigeria as the dignitaries would have held aloft our beloved country as a beacon of hope for democracy in Africa.
That is what happened in South Africa when apartheid ended and the late leadership icon,Nelson Mandela in 1994 became the president of that country that was highly racially divided, but out of which arose a new country with the unification of black and white into a country that is currently fondly referred to as a rainbow coalition.
On the contrary there has been an avalanche of negative comments on Nigeria by strategic and highly influential international media organizations-The Time, Economist magazines and the Guardian newspaper of London as well as New York times amongst other French and German media organizations.
As earlier stated,our country had also missed a similar opportunity in 1993.
That was when South Africa’s gain was Nigeria’s loss as our country which appeared poised for a national rebirth when the 12 June 1993 general elections held to enable us transit from a military rule into a multi party democracy was annulled by then military head of state, General lbrahim Babangida and hell was literally let loose causing our country to suffer a global backlash.
As one of the election 2023 observers from the US,Ambassador Mark Greene on behalf of the International Republican Institute, IRI and National Democratic Institute, NDl( American Think Tanks) surmised , the 25 February election which failed to meet the expectations of Nigerians is indeed a missed opportunity.
It was a window for our country to have witnessed a new beginning by electing leaders that we all would have believed have the undiluted mandate of the people,if INEC had not derailed in its duty of helping make Nigeria a stronger democracy by being transparent in the process of producing the presidential result. That could have conferred complete credibility on the process,so that the winner would have a legitimate mandate and Nigeria would take its place as the true leader of Africa with all its pride and ramifications.
But lNEC appear to have ineptly bungled it by allegedly not adhering to the Electoral Act 2022 requirements to the last details and failing to keep to its own guildlines to rely on data from BVAS transmitted to its own server real-time-online.
And the disappointing outcome should not have been the case because the election process was believed to have been going well until INEC reneged on its promise of uploading the results online real time into its servers in the headquarters based on its written guidelines that had been advertised across all the media platforms.
The assertion above is validated by the Nigerian Bar Association, NBA under its new helmsman,Mr Yakubu Maikyau who had set up a working group to monitor the 25 February presidential and National Assembly elections.
NBA’s interim report was that 64.6 percent voted of Nigerians felt somewhat satisfied with the elections and 27 percent were excellently impressed and 8.2 percent adjudging the election as poor or very poor. Presumably,the interim report was issued before the collation of the results.
In my view, that was a fair assessment as it reflected the true feelings of Nigerians while the process was ongoing on Saturday 25 February until Sunday the 26th when the balloting process was over and INEC failed to upload the results from the polling units into the server as it had promised.
That is when the initial good feelings of Nigerians about the exercise went south after it became apparent that the results were not transmitted to INEC sever/database through the BVAS used for accreditation as stipulated in the electoral umpire’s guildline and as demanded by the electoral act 2022 and which Prof Yakubu promised severally.
The bottom line is that the conduct of the highly controversial election 2023 was not really the problem,but the counting of the votes during which the result is believed to have been rigged.
The alleged ignoble role of INEC fits into the statement attributed to Mr Joseph Stalin, a former Soviet Union dictator that famously said:
“The people who cast the votes decide nothing; the people who count the votes decide everything”
If indeed INEC did not rely on data from BVAS for arriving at the final result as being alleged, the election umpire would have indeed made “the people who cast the votes decide nothing”as Stalin had noted?
In any case ,it is within the purview and ambit of the law to determine if the allegation of the votes of Nigerians not counting is true or false and l believe the election tribunal would work assiduously towards achieving that objective.
As if in convergence with the wise crack: “when it rains ,it pours”, the forthcoming elections at the subnational polls that got postponed from 11 March to 18 March,is susceptible to stirring up another controversy that may force another postponement.
The view above is underscored by the fact that a high court in Abuja has ruled that TVC which INEC has replaced with PVC should be used in the next election.
That would be further mudding the waters if it is sustained.
Although,INEC has challenged the court ruling and has promised to vacate the judgement, it remains a snag that has the potential to become another blight on our already mortally damaged 2023 elections.
Given how disappointed Nigerians are based on the belief that BVAS was side tracked and all the former fraudulent practices that were thought to have been eliminated by BVAS were on full display with impunity during the 25 February polling exercise, trust has been broken in the willingness and ability of INEC to be impartial.
So, chances are that violence may be manifest in the conduct of the 18 March gubernatorial and state legislators elections.
If mayhem happens on the Election Day and lives are lost, we know whose door steps to lay the blames.
Clearly,we need better and stronger safeguards for our fragile democracy.
And the nebulous legislation which Electoral Act 2022 has turned out to be,needs to be given a second look by the incoming 10th NASS to ensure that there are no more loopholes in the act that may be exploited in a manner that it could cast a slur on the election process in our beloved country.
That is because the reforms in the current Electoral Act 2022 that are supposed to make the process less fractious are obviously not as efficacious.
Hence the legislation which was thought to have raised higher the quality and standards of political office contestations in our country, is turning out to do the exact opposite.
Obviously, the 10th NASS has its job cut out for it.
May God bless Nigeria with wise leaders.

Magnus onyibe,an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
To continue with this conversation, please visit www.magnum.ng

Introduction

As Nigerians head to the polls, they will be taking part in one of the most highly anticipated Presidential races the country has ever seen. Comprised of a population of around 220 million people, what happens in Nigeria, inevitably, has a ripple effect felt far beyond its borders. However, with over half of young Nigerians under the age of 24 being unemployed, insecurity, endemic corruption, a nationwide cash shortage that is wreaking havoc at banks and with citizens, zero healthcare, crumbling educational systems, no electricity or clean drinkable water, it is clear, this President-elect has his work cut out for him. With such a list of political and socio-economic problems that are plaguing Nigeria, it begs the question, how are we going to get out of this hole?

Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Keys to Development

The Legatum Center for Development and Entrepreneurship at MIT, believes that innovation and entrepreneurship are key to developing a country’s ecosystem. For a country to survive, its ecosystem should maintain a delicate balance between different stakeholders: entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, universities and government. I had the rare opportunity to visit three countries that are working every day to put innovation and entrepreneurship at the forefront of their agenda: The United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Senegal.

As an MIT Legatum Foundry Fellow, each visit had me retrospectively thinking about how they’ve been able to improve versus why we’re still getting wrong in Nigeria. I learned that in their own unique ways, each country is showing how the government can work in tandem with the private sector, to drive the goals of visionary leaders that Nigeria’s President-elect could learn a lot from.

UAE

In the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque in Abu Dhabi, prayers are said. 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Imams, prayer leaders and up to 50,000 people a day come there, some of whom pray for the soul of the departed leader Sheikh Zayed. The Sheikh had a vision for his country: to build a new reality for his people, a new future for their children and a new model for development. One man’s vision decades ago, transformed the destiny of generations coming after him.

In the UAE, those goals carry through today. The country has created what they call their ‘2031 Vision,’ a national development plan for the next 10 years, with an eye on the power of tech. Today, Dubai has a Ministry of Artificial Intelligence, and they didn’t just stop there. The country has also established the Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence. An institution that is fully dedicated to advancing A.I. and using it as a force for good. It’s such a critical time for that industry, with companies like ChatGPT and Midjourney now dominating conversations around the future of tech, with even Meta recently announcing new A.I. products are being developed for Instagram and WhatsApp. It is clear that A.I. is going to quickly become an invaluable and crucial piece of technology for industries and countries.

Outside Dubai, Sharjah is another notable city in the region, that shows the government’s push to support innovation and entrepreneurship. In Sharjah, they’re working to bring in entrepreneurs from outside the UAE and support them through initiatives like the Khalifa Fund and other opportunities given to entrepreneurs and Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMES). This openness ensures that Abu Dhabi emerges as a thriving destination, so that people coming from outside the region can equally benefit and contribute to building the economy.

Beyond tech and business, Abu Dhabi is also positioning itself more and more as a touristic and artistic destination. For a long time, people have often only associated countries in the Middle East with oil; but, within the last few decades Abu Dhabi is working to change that narrative.  From the Louvre to the Sheikh Zayed Mosque, one sees how Abu Dhabi is also actively looking beyond oil, diversifying its economy and attracting tourists to visit and enjoy what the country has to offer.

Egypt

It’s a similar story in Egypt, where they’re also building on their history to move them into the future. One clear example of this, is in the majestic Sultan Hussein Kamel Palace. A historic site that has been around since the early 1900s…And today, it has been morphed into a modern platform for entrepreneurs, offering incubation programs for Egyptian start-ups. The Palace also has a working partnership with Egypt’s IT, Industry and Development Agency (ITIDA). Through this, up and coming businesses get access to support through a competitive application process. And, they’re actively impacting businesses. At this point, ITIDA has worked with hundreds of local start-ups. It also helps that it’s located right opposite the University of Cairo. Being this close to the school also means being close to young, curious minds to easily explore whether start-up life is for them. All of this was a real eye-opener, and a sad cry for what we call universities and research institutes back home in Nigeria.

Senegal

Finally, not too far from us in Nigeria is Senegal – but, compared to us, they’re making leaps and bounds when it comes to innovation at multiple levels. Although it’s considered a developing country, its ecosystem is thriving. The Senegalese government is deliberate in making sure women and young people are included through the Office of Digital Economy and Youth Employability. The government is also highly focused on bringing marginalized groups into the financial system, especially in a country where 97 percent of enterprises are in the informal sector according to the International Labour Organization. In Senegal, resources are made available to women, small and microscale enterprises, at no interest, something Nigeria could benefit from as so much business here is also done informally.

Like the UAE and Egypt, Senegal also values the importance of a solid education for building the next generation of leaders. Dakar American University of Science and Technology was founded by Dr. Sidy Ndao and was started with less than $50,000 of his own money. His goal? To educate future engineers, scientists, astronauts and people of African heritage. Implementing an American style of education with a reputation for excellence, students come out with a five-year engineering degree with critical thinking abilities, strong communication and entrepreneurship skills from a university focused on practical learning.

The entrepreneur is one of the most critical stakeholders to driving a thriving innovation ecosystem in any nation; how they’re perceived, conceived and frankly, whether the government supports them or not. In Nigeria, it’s sad to realize that there’s a huge bias against entrepreneurs. Most have very little or no capital, they can’t access funds; and even if start-up funds are available, the entrepreneur is knocked down by huge costs in the form of multiple taxes, federal tax, state taxes, local government fees, business licensing, infrastructural license fees, business-related licensing and other tax obligations; fees can topple any business within two years of starting out.

Conclusion

In witnessing different ecosystems, it’s clear that of the three, Nigeria could learn the most from the UAE, as it’s closer than ever to the original vision of Sheikh Zayed. His vision stated very clearly that he hoped to build a new future for people, and a new model of development. Through his goals, the UAE has embraced the use of technology to the point that they have an entire Ministry dedicated to A.I. linked to the Prime Minister’s office. Their government has embraced innovation as the hallmark of development; their ‘2031 Vision’ aims to transform the country from a dependency on oil to a knowledge-based economy. In Sharjah, they’ve set up an entrepreneurship center providing support to entrepreneurs to gain access to finance, working spaces, investors, legal support and more.

Please, say a prayer for Nigeria.

Our next leader must have a clear vision. He must be insightful and ingenious; one who will unite the nation with a strong mission and purpose. Lee Kuan Yew had a vision for Singapore, Sheikh Zayed had a vision for Abu Dhabi, will the incoming President of Nigeria be able to step into the role and be a visionary? Not just to lead, but unite our country with a vision so strong that it overpowers tribe, language, cultural and religious bias. Our leader must practice adaptive leadership, have a purpose, be in line with current realities, and be intentional about our future.

Bolanle Austen-Peters

MIT Legatum Foundry Fellow

Founder, Terra Kulture and BAP Productions

As the dust settles on Nigeria’s presidential election, the focus turns to the incoming administration and the policies that will define its tenure. The election, which saw Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) emerge as the winner, presents an opportunity for Nigeria to chart a new course and tackle some of the challenges that have bedevilled the country in recent years.

There is no doubt that Nigeria is at a critical juncture in its history. The country has a growing population, a thriving economy, and enormous potential. However, it also faces a range of pressing issues, from corruption and insecurity to infrastructure deficits and social inequality. To address these challenges, the incoming administration must adopt a bold and innovative approach that takes into account the unique circumstances of Nigeria.

One option for the new regime is to focus on infrastructure development. Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit is well-documented, with the country ranking low in global indices for access to electricity, roads, and other basic amenities. Addressing this deficit will require a significant investment in infrastructure, including power generation, transportation, and housing. The incoming administration could consider establishing a dedicated infrastructure fund, with private sector participation, to finance and manage infrastructure projects across the country. Such an approach could help to attract foreign investment and create jobs while improving the quality of life for Nigerians.

Another option for the new regime is to tackle corruption head-on. Corruption is a major challenge in Nigeria, with the country ranking poorly in global indices for transparency and accountability. The incoming administration could consider implementing a range of measures to combat corruption, including strengthening anti-corruption agencies, improving governance and accountability frameworks, and promoting transparency in public procurement processes. The new administration could also consider introducing whistle-blower protections, incentivizing citizens to report cases of corruption and malfeasance. By tackling corruption, the incoming administration could help to restore public trust in government institutions and create a more conducive environment for investment and economic growth.

The new regime could also prioritize security and stability. In recent years, Nigeria has faced significant security challenges, from terrorism and insurgency to communal clashes and banditry. The incoming administration could consider implementing a range of measures to improve security and stability, including increasing funding for security agencies, improving border control and intelligence gathering, and addressing the root causes of insecurity, such as poverty and unemployment. The new administration could also consider establishing community policing initiatives, promoting dialogue and reconciliation between communities, and investing in education and skills development programs to create opportunities for young people. By prioritizing security and stability, the incoming administration could help to create a more conducive environment for investment and economic growth.

In addition to these options, the new regime could consider a range of other policy initiatives to drive economic growth and development. For example, the new administration could consider promoting entrepreneurship and innovation, creating a favorable business environment, and increasing access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises. The new administration could also consider promoting trade and investment, both domestically and internationally, by improving infrastructure, reducing trade barriers, and promoting Nigeria as a destination for investment. By pursuing these and other policy initiatives, the incoming administration could help to unlock Nigeria’s vast potential and create a more prosperous and equitable society for all Nigerians.

However, it is important to note that implementing these policy initiatives will not be easy. Nigeria is a complex country, with a range of political, economic, and social challenges. The new administration will need to navigate these challenges carefully, while also building consensus and working collaboratively with stakeholders across the country. Additionally, the new administration will need to ensure that its policies and initiatives are inclusive and promote the interests of all Nigerians, regardless of their backgrounds or affiliations.

To achieve its objectives, the new administration must prioritize inclusive governance and ensure that all Nigerians have a voice in the policy-making process. This means reaching out to civil society organizations, community leaders, and other stakeholders to understand their perspectives and concerns. It also means creating opportunities for citizens to participate in the governance process, whether through public consultations, town hall meetings, or other forms of engagement.

In addition to building consensus, the new administration must also prioritize transparency and accountability. This means being open and honest about its policies and initiatives, and ensuring that resources are used efficiently and effectively. It also means holding public officials accountable for their actions and ensuring that they are subject to appropriate oversight and scrutiny.

Furthermore, the new administration must prioritize long-term planning and sustainability. This means looking beyond short-term political considerations and focusing on policies and initiatives that will deliver long-term benefits for Nigeria and its citizens. It also means ensuring that policies and initiatives are designed to be sustainable, both financially and environmentally.

The new administration must also take into account the importance of international relations and cooperation. Nigeria is an important player in the West African sub-region and a key member of the African Union. It is also a major oil producer and a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). As such, its actions and policies have implications beyond its borders.

The new administration should therefore prioritize regional and international cooperation, working closely with its neighbours and partners to address common challenges and promote regional stability and development. This means engaging with other African countries and organizations, as well as with international organizations such as the United Nations and the World Bank. It also means promoting cooperation and dialogue with other major powers, including China, the United States, and the European Union.

In addition to promoting regional and international cooperation, the new administration must also prioritize environmental sustainability. Nigeria is a country with significant environmental challenges, from deforestation and desertification to air and water pollution. The new administration must take steps to address these challenges, promoting sustainable land use practices, investing in renewable energy, and reducing carbon emissions.

In doing so, the new administration can help to ensure that Nigeria’s economic development is sustainable and environmentally responsible, promoting a green economy that creates jobs and supports the country’s long-term prosperity.

Overall, the incoming administration has a range of policy options at its disposal to address the pressing challenges facing Nigeria. By prioritising inclusive governance, transparency, accountability, and long-term planning and sustainability, infrastructure development, corruption, security, and economic growth, regional and international cooperation, and environmental sustainability Furthermore, success will depend on the ability of the new administration to build consensus and work collaboratively with stakeholders across the country, as well as on its ability to take a holistic approach to policy-making that takes into account the interrelated challenges facing Nigeria today, this way, the new administration can help to unlock Nigeria’s vast potential and create a more prosperous and equitable society for all Nigerians.

In military regimes, which have together ac­­c­o­unted for approximately half of the Nigeria’s history, it was technocrats, for most purposes, who led the government. Even in many civilian governments, key positions such as the finance and commerce ministries were often imposed upon them.

Despite their seemingly strong credentials, however, their performance remained mostly unsatisfactory, and if the experiment were to be repeated, there is no reason to expect any different outcome soon. It is, therefore, necessary to reconsider how technical expertise may best be availed in matters of governance.

What did our past technocrat governments fail to achieve? Well, for one, they could not achieve a taxation system that is fair and where what is due gets collected, nor did they manage to increase and diversify exports with goods and services that are internationally competitive, whose sale is not dependent upon receiving state subsidies and grants of ‘favoured’ status by buyer countries.

They were not able to remove discriminatory regulations and subsidies that favour the powerful — of which the corporate sector and banks are the biggest beneficiaries, nor were they able to bring agriculture and livestock productivity and quality at par with international standards or impose agricultural income tax on a par with other sectors.

They were not able to help industry progress from the simple assembly of imported products for domestic sale to national indigenous development, manufacturing and export of products, nor were they able to cut losses by state-owned enterprises.

They were neither able to ensure reasonable quality healthcare and education/skills training for all nor were they able to significantly reduce corruption.

Technocrat dispensations neither intended to nor could have built a narrative that could galvanise citizens’ support for policy reforms.

Why did they fail? To begin with, under military rule, the governments they served were formed in violation of the Constitution and therefore lacked legitimacy. They neither intended to nor could have built a narrative that could galvanise citizens’ support for policy reforms that would have adversely affected special interest groups. Additionally, since 1999, the wrong persons were selected as technocrats — often commercial bankers, former IMF/World Bank staffers and persons with a narrowly focused background in finance/economics/law.

Such individuals lacked the essential qualities and competence required for a national-level policymaker. For example, these technocrats could not relate to ordinary citizens and did not represent them in any way. Some technocrats had a clear conflict of interest in their roles, as they were closely associated with businesses in the same field for which they were devising policies (more on this below).

For decades, these wrongly selected technocrats focused only on short-term financial manipulations — of the currency exchange rate, bank interest rates, deferred payments for imports, juggling of certain import/export duties and subsidies, and so forth.

The real economy — comprising agriculture and industry (including IT) and international trade/exports — was not paid sufficient attention to for the medium or long term.

What are essential qualities that should be sought in a national-level policymaker? As discussed in one of my earlier articles, they include awareness of the living conditions of the people and their needs; an understanding of society’s core values and priorities; empathy with the people; loyalty to this country; deep knowledge of and experience in one or more sectors; a public mandate; and an absence of conflict of interest.

The majority of our population is directly or indirectly dependent on agricultural income, while agriculture accounts for half of the employed labour force.

Staple agricultural produce is our major source of our exports. Key industries, such as textile, fertiliser, tractors and agricultural machinery, and sugar and flour mills are linked to agriculture. Less than 1% of the population owns shares in the corporate sector or banks.

It is true that the services sector currently accounts for significant portion of our  GDP flows, but the country’s financial sector, wholesale/retail trade and transport sectors, and most other services sectors primarily serve the domestic market and have not attracted substantial foreign investors.

The services sector does not compare with agriculture in exports, and insufficient exports are the bane of our economy and the main reason behind our socio-economic crisis. It would, therefore, be a gross misreading of the reality to surmise that Nigeria is essentially a services economy which can be steered by tinkering with rates and percentages.

Given the context, what is the most effective way to engage technocrats? First, there should be agreement that we are a democracy where lower-income citizens form the majority, and the well-being of the majority is paramount. Then come the next steps: our elected representatives should set clear national development policy objectives and guidelines, after which the legislative arm should select technical specialists.

Technocrats, once appointed, should work under and within the given policy parameters, instead of acting as policymakers themselves, and help develop plans and activities. Meanwhile, the elected representatives should build a public narrative to explain and convince citizens of what needs to be done. And once a strong unified narrative is built, the citizenry can be expected to stand by the government when it is doing away with the unjust privileges extended to special interest groups.

In conclusion, it may help to illustrate the proposed arrangement using the structure of a corporate enterprise. The elected representatives may be seen as the board of directors of the company, representing the owners (the citizens). The bureaucracy forms the management staff, while the technocrats function as management consultants.

The BoD sets the objectives and policy guidelines to benefit the owners (citizens). The management then develops plans and acts to achieve that. The management consultants, based on their broad experience and area expertise, may be engaged to advise the management (or to take a more practical part in developing plans) or even advise the BoD, as needed. But always, the BoD (here, the elected representatives) should be the final decision-makers.

IT is now impossible to escape the reality that some in Nigeria have too much wealth while many have too little. Families are having to choose between food on the table and children in school. It is hard not to think that this is unfair. We can be callous about it or concerned. How the future unfolds might depend on our choice.

Contrary to the promised trickle-down of capitalist development, wealth has been sucked up. Extrapolating from India, five per cent of Pakistanis now own more than 60pc of the country’s wealth whilst the bottom 50pc share only 3pc of it. This is a huge suppression of demand that stifles growth and fosters despair.

It is unsurprising that redistribution can yield positive results. Almost all prosperous East Asian countries had land reforms, chaotic in some (China) and orderly in others (South Korea). Wealth transfer from those spending on luxuries, mostly imported, to those consuming locally made products boosts manufacturing and creates jobs.

There are other intangible benefits. In South Korea, it is claimed that reduced income inequalities placed everyone “on a more or less equal footing, and individual effort and ability rather than family wealth became the most important determinant for individual success. Many believe that the Koreans’ characteristic diligence and their emphasis on education were motivated by this perception of equal opportunity”.

The wealth-generating model of capitalism we have followed has a major anomaly.

Much has been written of the failure of land reform in Pakistan but it might be futile chasing a bus we missed. While the scope for transfers and the scale of their impact remains huge because of immensely skewed distribution, landlords are now no longer the dominant players and we should adjust our thinking to the phase of development we are in.

The wealth-generating model of capitalism we have followed has a major anomaly: while it has finally accepted the logic of minimum wage, much less attention is paid to top compensation. Discussion of the wage-ratio (ratio of top to bottom salaries) has been subdued although there is nothing sacrosanct about it. It is a policy choice and recommendations vary widely across countries.

No such ratio exists in Pakistan and we need to think of one. The monthly minimum wage is Rs25,000. Imagine a wage-ratio of, say, 30 yielding a maximum monthly compensation of Rs750,000. The market could continue to determine salaries to signal scarcities but everything above the cap could be taxed away with the proceeds earmarked in a fund to benefit the country’s poorest 25 per cent. (How the fund is set up and managed are details for later.)

A positive effect would be immediate: raising the ceiling would be tied to raising the floor making the latter something to fight for rather than against. The income compression would also trigger falling prices of housing and land freeing up resources now locked in unproductive investment.

A parallel measure could limit inheritance to, say, 25pc of household wealth beyond a certain threshold with the rest going to the above-mentioned fund. This too would initiate a positive reallocation as people dispose multiple houses and plots accumulated for passing on. Consumption would rise boosting the economy.

Education can be the most important pathway to equality but the playing field can never be levelled if access remains contingent on household wealth. We could consider eliminating private education. Children could be randomly assigned to a public school within a five-mile (eight kilometres) radius of their homes where they would ideally be bussed.

Public schools are not fated to be bad; they are so because we do not care. Exclusively public school education exists successfully in Switzerland and Finland, for example, and there is no reason it cannot in Pakistan. Once Mahmud and Ayaz have to share the same bench, public schools could improve with surprising speed.

The measures mentioned here would need time to have impact. Something is also required to reshuffle the existing order faster providing opportunities for those at the bottom to move up without recourse to a social revolution.

Consider two relevant ideas: Rawls’ ‘Veil of Ignorance’ where people are asked to design a society without knowing where they might end up in it, in terms of class, location and physical condition; and, reincarnation, in which people know they would be ‘reborn’ in forms unknown to them contingent on their deeds in this world. In the abstract, these should motivate compassionate and just behaviour but in practice they have had little effect because self-interest has become overpowering under capitalism.

Is it possible to operationalise these ideas to give them teeth? Imagine households classified into, say, five categories (from the richest to the poorest) based on the type of house they occupy. When a head of household turns 30, the household is randomly reassigned to one of these categories (within the same jurisdiction thereby enabling them to retain their jobs). A household moving down would be able to upgrade its newly assigned residence with its higher income; one moving up could generate income by subletting a part of its bigger home.

Society could be reshuffled rapidly. Slums would be upgraded and sparsely populated enclaves would densify. The market would adjust to cater to the new effective demand for services like transport.

A well-designed scheme would announce a reasonable transition period before starting implementation on a yearly basis for heads of household turning 30 that year. The expectation of forthcoming change would quite likely lead to pre-emptive adjustments so that most desired effects might be achieved during the transition period itself taking the sting out of the actual reassignments. It would be too risky to allow abject poverty to continue if one might be reincarnated as an impoverished person and slighting the ‘Veil of Ignorance’ could be costly.

Many readers might deem this quixotic if they take it literally. They should consider it more a wake-up call because where things are headed the probability of social upheaval is non-zero. We need to think ahead to craft a soft landing.

Readers can contribute by coming up with their own, more feasible, ideas for a just Pakistan. It is important to take our heads out of the sand before it is too late.