Daily Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) Rates (₦/Us$)
Moving Average = 1,467.4790 (NFEM)
Previous Average = 1,465.3595
Change = -0.1446%
Forex Analysis
Whoa!! Our moving average for the naira against the dollar fell for the first time in 8 weeks by a marginal 0.15%. In our report last week, we noted that the market was a bit wobbly. The pattern seems to have continued into this week somewhat. This might be signaling the beginning of a new period of volatility in the market but it is still too soon to tell.
In the official market, the naira hovered around ₦1,460–₦1,475 per USD between October 10 and October 24, 2025. Rates fluctuated more widely in the parallel market (black market), with the naira ranging from ₦1,480 to ₦1,515 per USD, with some days seeing sharp intraday swings. The divergence suggests a renewed pressure on FX liquidity.
The reason there is renewed pressure on FX liquidity is because the foreign investment portfolio inflows that happened in the 6 weeks prior to the last two weeks, which had helped drive demand for the naira, leading to its appreciation against the dollar, fell by 33%, from $1.64 billion to $1.1 billion. The most likely reason for this fall is profit-taking on the part of foreign investors. This significantly reduced the amount of dollars available to domestic players needing dollars, forcing them to the parallel market and thus creating the wild swings mentioned earlier.
The contribution of foreign investment inflows to the previous bullish period was not inconsiderable. Reports from NGX show that for Q3 2025 overall, foreign portfolio transactions tripled to an all-time high of ₦1.8 trillion, compared to ₦696.9 billion in Q3 2024. Notably, foreign inflows exceeded outflows, resulting in a net surplus of ₦220 billion — a reversal from the net deficit seen a year earlier. Inflows into Nigeria’s foreign exchange market were dominated by Foreign Portfolio Inflows (FPI), accounting for 63.1% of total inflows in mid-October, with $694.9 million in a single week.
Daily Crude Oil Price
Moving Average = $61.73
Previous Average = $63.16
Change = -2.2641%
Crude Oil Analysis
This is now the 4th week in a row our moving average for crude has fallen. On average oil prices have dropped 7.83% over the past month and 16.29% year-over-year, reaching levels not seen since May. As we have reported over the past month or so, oil is the victim of a global softening of demand, especially in China and Europe as reported in the August Monthly Reports of both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA’s October Report reiterated that demand was expected to remain soft through 2025 and 2026. While global oil demand rose in Q3, as petrochemical feedstock led a modest rebound, the increasing uptake of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and other macroeconomic headwinds, is however expected to dampen broader consumption.
NGX Top 10 Gainers for the week closing 24th Oct 2025
NGX Top 10 Losers for the week closing 24th Oct 2025
Stock Market Index Activity for the week closing 24th Oct 2025
Stock Market Index Analysis
Forty-four (44) equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than fifty-two (52) equities in the previous week. Forty-nine (49) equities depreciated in price, higher than forty-one (41) equities in the previous week, while fifty-three (53) equities remained unchanged, same as fifty-three (53) recorded in the previous week.
The market experienced a mixed but bullish-leaning week, with notable sector rotation and earnings-driven momentum, despite a lower number stocks appreciating, and a higher number of stocks depreciating when compared to last week. This is because the rally was concentrated in large-cap and index-heavy stocks, rather than being broad-based.
Market cap and index gains were driven by heavyweights like MTN Nigeria, BUA Cement, and Dangote Cement, which have outsized influence on the NGX All-Share Index. Meanwhile, mid- and small-cap stocks saw more mixed performance, with many experiencing profit-taking or flat trading, leading to fewer overall gainers.
The stocks of the top gainers benefited from earnings optimism, sectoral tailwinds, and institutional accumulation, especially in cement, telecoms, and consumer goods. Those of the top losers were affected by profit-taking, low liquidity, or sector-specific headwinds, especially in banking, insurance, and micro-cap industrials.
Daily Bitcoin Prices
Moving Average = $110,633.44
Previous Average = $112,802.00
Change = -1.9225%
Bitcoin Analysis
Wow. This was supposed to be the month of “Uptober”. The bitcoin average fell another 2% this week. This was after a massive 8% fall last week. In fairness, bitcoin did post a new all-time high sometime around Oct 10, triggering massive profit-taking. Still market veterans are saying that Oct 2025 is shaping up to be the worst October in 10 years. This year’s poor showing seems to be driven by macro uncertainty and fading ETF momentum.
Regulatory shifts might also be at play here. In the U.S., Executive Order 57 was signed to establish the Office of Digital Assets and Blockchain, signaling tighter oversight. This, some observers say, spooked short-term traders and drained liquidity from exchanges.
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