Daily Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) Rates(₦/US$)
Moving Average = 1,478.8252 (NFEM)
Previous Average = 1,490.5248
Change = +0.7849%
Forex Analysis
The Naira yet again seems to be on the up against the dollar for the fifth week in a row with this week’s moving average rising by roughly 0.8%. We had mentioned last week that the likely reason was that the high interests set by CBN was attracting foreign portfolio investments. We still maintain that position. According to recent reports, foreign investors are actively targeting the following financial instruments:
OMO bills
Reason: These bills often offer yields in excess of 18-20%. These make them attractive for carry trades. Also, offshore investors are drawn by the short tenor and high returns, especially in a stable FX environment like the one we are currently seeing.
Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs)
Reason: While their yields remain lower than that of OMO bills, they remain popular due to their lower risk profile, regular issuance and liquidity in secondary markets.
FGN Bonds
Reason: It seems foreign investors have begun to take notice of FGN Bonds again as Nigeria eyes reentry into the JP Morgan EM Bond Index, which would boost visibility and credibility.
Equities
Reason: Sectors like banking, telecoms, and consumer goods are seeing strong inflows. It is also probably noteworthy that foreign transactions on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) hit ₦1.718 trillion in August 2025—a 541% increase from 2021.
Daily Crude Oil Prices
Moving Average = $67.11
Previous Average = $67.70
Change = -0.8715%
Crude Oil Analysis
The Brent crude moving average fell about 0.9% this week. Last week’s rise of 0.8% is now beginning to look like a temporary fluctuation. We had mentioned that both OPEC and the IEA had issued reports that global demand for crude was softening and they still maintain these positions. The broader market signals for crude remain bearish. Both OPEC and the IEA cite the reasons for the softening being the falling demand in emerging markets and growing Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption, with the two factors being somewhat linked.
There has been growing demand for EVs, particularly in China. EVs now account for more than 30% of new vehicle sales in China. India is making an aggressive push into renewables and Brazil, which has the world’s second largest biofuel program after the US, continues to replace gasoline with biofuels in the transport sector. Indonesia and Pakistan like Nigeria, are scaling back their fuel subsidy programs and this is helping to curb demand. The general point to note is that the decline in crude demand across emerging markets is not just cyclical—it’s increasingly structural, suggesting that the long-term trajectory points to slower growth in oil consumption.
NGX Top 10 Gainers for the week closing 3rd Oct 2025
NGX Top 10 Losers for the week closing 3rd Oct 2025
Stock Market Index Activity for the week closing 3rd Oct 2025
Stock Market Index Analysis
Fifty-three (53) equities appreciated in price during the week, higher than thirty-two (32) equities in the previous week. Forty-three (43) equities depreciated in price, lower than fifty-one (51) equities in the previous week, while fifty-one (51) equities remained unchanged, lower than sixty-four (64) recorded in the previous week.
The stock market saw something of a rally compared to last week’s relatively damp mood. The improved sentiment seems to have been driven by CBN’s announcement of a marginal rate cut (CBN’s first in 5 years) of the MPR from 27.5% to 27%. This seems to have prompted investors to rotate capital from fixed-income securities into equities in search of better returns. There was also something of a blue-chip rally with heavyweight stocks like Fidelity Bank, Nigerian Breweries, and Transcorp, all posting strong gains. On a sector basis, industrials, insurers, and consumer-focused firms led the charge, with some stocks posting triple-digit year-to-date gains. Investors are advised to remain cautious though, as the shift does not represent market euphoria.
Daily Bitcoin Prices
Moving Average = $117,976.82
Previous Average = $113,920.7714
Change = +3.5604%
Bitcoin Analysis
Bitcoin posted a rather large gain this week, jumping by about 3.6%, reversing a 1.6% fall from last week. Last week we reported that September is historically bitcoin’s worst performing month. The reverse is the case when it comes to October. October is historically bitcoin’s best performing month. For this reason, October is nicknamed “Uptober” in crypto circles. The 3.6% jump seems to confirm that. Past Octobers have delivered average returns of 14–21%, and this year’s setup aligns with that trend. This week has also seen a surge of institutional demand for crypto assets, with over $2.4 billion flowing into Bitcoin and Ethereum funds this week.
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