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leadership

Magnus Onyibe
Economy

Nigerian Presidency, 2023: Where Are The Igbo Candidates?

by Magnus Onyibe
written by Magnus Onyibe 10mins read

In the People Democratic Party, PDP whose convention comes up 30-31st October which is a few days’ time, the front runners for the presidential tickets are already very well known.
Ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar who had faced- off with the incumbent president Mohammadu Buhari in the 2019 presidential contest with significant impact, is on top of the pecking order. This has been confirmed by Oyo state governor and secretary of the PDP convention committee, Seyi Makinde who revealed the identity of the other presidential candidates during a recent Channels television interview.
“…PDP has eminently qualified personalities that can lead this country successfully. Some have indicated interest, like former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, like Governor (Aminu) Tambuwal, like Governor Bala Mohammed.”
Curiously, former senate president, and ex Kwara state governor, Bukola Saraki who was a serious contender for the presidency in 1999 was not mentioned. Just as no Igbo man/woman whose region is supposed to present the next president in 2023 is featured in governor Makinde’s list of PDP presidential candidates that would slug it out in presidential primaries.
With respect to the ruling party, All Progressives Party, APC, the man with the appellation, National Leader, also known as both the Jagaban of Borgu and Asiwaju of Lagos, Bola Ahmed Tinubu who served as governor of Lagos 1999-2007 is clearly the leader of the pack.
So it is almost like an entitlement for the man also nicknamed the Lion Of Bourdilon to become the president of Nigeria in 2023. That is simply because he played a pivotal role in the emergence of President Buhari as president in 2015 via his ability to swing the very critical south-west or Yoruba votes in favor of a then-presidential candidate, Buhari. Since it is the nature of politicians to give and later demand a return on lOUs, it appears to me that it is now payback time between Buhari and Tinubu. To actualize the presumed presidential ambition of Tinubu, South West Agenda For Asiwaju, SWAGA, a well-oiled campaign organization that has been founded by Tinubu’s ardent supporters has been making waves.
The criticality of Tinubu’s role in making Buhari president is accentuated by the fact it happened after Buhari’s three previous failed attempts (in 2003, 2007, and 2011) to win the presidency.
As someone contended elsewhere, it would not be far-fetched for observers of Nigerian political developments to come to the conclusion that Tinubu has been waiting for seven years to gain a foothold in the presidency of Nigeria. That is after the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN that Tinubu leads, struck the deal with then-candidate Buhari’s, Congress for Progressive Change, CPC between 2013/14 to harness Yoruba votes for Buhari’s victory in 2015.
Considering that the Asiwaju had to give up his initial ambition to serve as Vice Presidential candidate to Buhari in 2015, which is owed to the fact that the concept of a Muslim president and Vice President is a sort of anathema in Nigeria, his burning ambition to succeed Buhari as president must have remained aglow.
But how the burning desire can be converted into reality is a lump currently lodged in the throats of both the Asiwaju who is yet to verbalize his apparently lifelong quest, and his political godson, Yemi Osinbajo, that is being coy about his interest in the plump job of being president of the republic.
Be that as it may, a presidential campaign organization, ostensibly without Osinbajo’s public endorsement known as ‘Osinbajo Support Movement’ (OSM) has
created a website as far back as May to chronicle the achievements of the Vice-President and public garner support for him. Without being told, the emergence of OSM is in pursuit of the cause of elevating the current Vice President to the next level-the presidency.
To consolidate the publicity that had been achieved with the website, in the course of president Buhari daughter’s high octane wedding ceremonies recently held in Kano, the streets of the ancient city were adorned with posters pitching Osinbajo for president and incumbent Kano state governor, Abdullahi Ganduje for vice president with the carefully crafted message:
“If power rotates to the South, Osinbajo is best placed to unite, heal and inspire our great nation. We also firmly believe that Ganduje’s antecedents as Governor of Kano make him the perfect Northern vice presidential candidate to Osinbajo; one who will advance and protect the interests of a Northern Nigeria plagued by poverty and insecurity.”
By and large, it can be stated without equivocation that the presidency of Nigeria in 2023 from the ruling party prism appears to be beaconing on the current Vice President, who is a prodigy of the Jagaban, Bola Tinubu.
Keeping in mind that it was Tinubu that conceded the role of Vice President to Osinbajo by virtue of the fact that he was his trusted ally, would he be willing to concede the presidency to him this time?
Osinbajo, who is a high-ranking Pentecostal pastor of the Redeemed Christian Church of God and an astute legal scholar has been on the saddle as Vice President since 2015 and Tinubu his erstwhile boss has been on the sideline.
If the feelers in the political space are anything to go by, Osinbajo is not resisting the allure of change of nomenclature from Vice President to President-a natural progression that very few mortals can resist. But would his mentor, and if you like, an earthly master concede the presidency to him? That is the elephant in the room.
In my calculations, although Osinbajo may be able to garner the votes of a vast number of Christians nationwide by virtue of his being a member of the Redeem Church (believed to be the largest Pentecostal church denomination) he does not appear to possess what it takes to take on his former boss in political warfare and win in the main political battleground, south-west. It is perhaps why the Vice President has been demurring from advancing his purported presidential dream from the subliminal level to the realms of reality.
Even when the block votes in north-west are mobilized by Ganduje backed by Buhari for Osinbajo/Ganduje presidency, the nature of politics in Nigeria is that the block votes of the southwest are also required to secure the presidency which only Tinubu appears to have the capacity and ability to procure.
So, once again, the man often referred to as pastor/professor may have to predicate his presidential ambition on the will of God.
The third personality from Yoruba land that may be nursing presidential ambition in 2023 is the present Ekiti state governor, Kayode Fayemi who is also an ex-minister of solid minerals development.
As the chairman of the Nigerian Governors Forum, NGF, he has chalked up some national influence enough to earn himself national name recognition. Again, like Osinbajo, he is one of Tinubu’s surrogates who honed his political skills in the days of NADECO-the Yoruba political pressure movement that is one of the forces that pushed for the exit of Sani Abacha as Nigeria’s military head of state(1994-8).
So, Fayemi’s reported ambition may also be in abeyance, which is in line with the wisdom to engage in dalliance with Tinubu political family as a political tactic, so as not to cross paths with the APC national leader, who is apparently believed to hold the ace in Yoruba politics.
Now, our country, Nigeria is anchored, metaphorically, on a tripod formed by Hausa/Fulani, Yoruba, and Igbo nationalities, with each representing one of the three legs on which Nigeria stands.
They jostle for the presidency by the Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani nationalities gleaned from mainstream and online media sources has been cataloged in the preceding paragraphs.
But shockingly, alarmingly, and embarrassingly absent in the milieu are activities or information about the potential presidential or even vice-presidential candidates of Igbo origin from the ruling or main opposition parties jostling for the presidency in 2023.
So, where are the Igbo candidates?
Yes, Kingsley Moghalu, ex Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN deputy governor, and presidential candidate of one of the small political parties in 2019 may be angling for the presidency again in 2023. But, for the obvious reasons of lack of nationwide political structures, and inability to raise the humongous financial resources which by some estimates can be as high as one hundred billion nairas required to execute a presidential campaign, Moghalu has zero chance. The underlying reason for that assertion is that he is not vying for the presidency on the platform of the ruling APC or main opposition, PDP whose affluent members-governors, legislators, and ministers could have provided the financial resources and political structures once a candidate is adopted by the party. Basically if becoming the president of Nigeria in 2023 is in Moghalu’s gaze, it would have done his political career greater good, if he had joined the ruling or main opposition parties.
The other Igbo politicians of notable national status weighty enough to contemplate contesting for the presidency of Nigeria are Orji Uzo Kalu, ex Abia state governor, currently a senator; Ken Nnamani and Anyim Pius Anyim, both of whom are former senate Presidents at different times. To further give him more heft, Pius Anyim also served as Secretary to the government of the Federation under Goodluck Jonathan’s presidency.
But the aforementioned Igbo politicians who were on track to entrench themselves politically at the national level, have recently been literarily ‘damaged’ and have thus become political liabilities via their indictments by the EFCC for financial malfeasance. That is the case with Orji Kalu who was jailed under curious circumstances for corruption. But he escaped a long jail term by the whiskers when he was soon after discharged and acquitted. Pius Anyim has also been recently grilled by the anti-corruption agency, EFCC for alleged involvement of a company where he has a beneficial interest in an aviation ministry contract.
Regarding, Ken Nnamani, he has been in the cold politically for nearly fifteen years since he was compelled by his political leader( Chimaroke Nnamani, then governor of his state, currently a senator ) from seeking re-election to the senate after he played a prominent role in scuttling president Obasanjo’s presumed third term agenda in 2007. That much was revealed in Nnamani’s recently published memoir.
In a piece titled: How To Become President Of Nigeria which l wrote and published on the back page of Thisday newspaper on Monday, September 20, 2021, and on numerous online newspapers, l had made a case that the Igbo nation may be suffering from a dearth of ‘presidential materials’.
ln, the piece, l listed elder statesman, Emmanuel lwuanyanwu, the
owner of defunct Champion newspaper and lwuanyanwu Babes-football club (socioeconomic endeavors which gave him national name recognition) as a potential presidential candidate of Igbo extraction. But he is currently past his prime in terms of age and political relevance.
Another Igbo personality that l had also beamed the light on is Peter Obi, who is the 2019 vice presidential candidate of the PDP and former governor of Anambra state. He too is currently under the yoke of the recently leaked Pandora papers(a catalog of illicit financial flows into a tax haven in Monaco) which has put him under the scrutiny of Nigerian anti-fraud agencies which are getting under his skin in a bid to ferret out information to determine if the former state governor breached the code of conduct rules in public service by not disclosing some of his wealth tucked away in secret foreign jurisdictions.
In my interactions with multiple members of the Igbo ethnic stock, l get the sense that they desire, as desperately as can be imagined, to be the tribe calling the shots in the presidency from2023.
This was affirmed by the president-general of Ohaneze Indigbo, the region sociocultural organization, George
Obiozor had passionately made a case for the Igbo presidency of Nigeria after president Buhari exits the Aso Rock villa in 2023. Here is how he put it: “We support the Igbo president with open arms. It is the most important thing that will happen to Igbos. Finally, it is our turn. And we are going to work it so hard,” Obiozor further made the following emphasis:
“We will talk to other parts of Nigeria to give us a chance. Because it is right, reasonable, deserving, and timely. It is wonderful to consider it done by this time. Igbo presidency is our agenda.”
Another Igbo elder statesman and former Anambra state governor (1992-3) Chukwuemeka Ezeife had also lent his voice to the call for the next president to be Igbo.
Said he ” power comes from God but we (Ndigbo) have been doing our homework, reaching out to our brothers from the Northern, Western, and South-South part of Nigeria to support us in 2023. Ordinary Nigerians from the other geopolitical zones want an Igbo to be the next President for equity, justice, and fair play”.
Although, there has been a deluge of rhetorical statements that can be likened to the roars of lions from Igbos at home and in the diaspora about 2023 being a watershed year for a member of their ethnic group to be the president of Nigeria on the premise of the fact that both the Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani nations have had their turns in the presidential power rotation arrangement introduced since 1999: in terms of the physical mobilization of Igbo voters and the actual preparation of Igbo candidates, there has not been any significant evidence to match the vigor displayed in the media. Rather the hoopla in the mainstream and social media without commensurate practical action on the ground makes the Igbo appear like whimpering kittens as far as the struggle for the presidency of Nigeria in 2023 is concerned.
The clearly un-Igbo tame and timid attitude has been in part attributed to the resistance being put up by the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB, separatist movement via their seat-at-home order in Igbo land; and their disruption of political activities in the South-East through other civil disobedience actions which are having crippling effects on the socio-economic and political activities in the region.
The political inactivity in Igbo land with respect to the presidency of Nigeria in 2023 is quite the opposite of the preparatory activities towards the forthcoming November 6, governorship election in which both president Buhari and NEC chairman, Mahmood Yakubu have vowed must hold on schedule, despite the IPOB threat.
Somehow, the quartet of Andy Uba of APC, Val Ozigbo of PDP, Chukwuma Soludo of APGA, and Ifeanyi Uba of YPP representing the main political parties have been ramping up their campaigns.
Given the scenario above, and if the Igbos are really not politicking for the presidency like their Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani counterparts, (which is evident by the reality on the ground) the prospect of an Igbo presidency in 2023 that may already be in peril, can be given a shot-in-the-arm through a strategic partnership that would provide political structures and financial muscle.
That is what informed my proposal in the earlier referenced article: “How To Become The President Of Nigeria” that the Igbo should align with Atiku Abubakar as PDP presidential candidate in 2023 to achieve the dream of Igbo presidency in 2027.
My proposal is underscored by the belief that it would be unlikely that the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who has become a veteran in presidential contests since 2003 with enormous practical experience, would seek his re-election in 2027 if elected president in 2023 via an Igbo alliance and PDP support.
Unless, other northern contenders like Aminu Tambuwal or Bala Mohammed are willing to serve only one term and hand over to an Igbo Vice President, which is a highly unlikely scenario simply because of their relatively young age compared to the former Vice President who would be 75 years next month, Igbo quest for the presidency of Nigeria may remain a mirage.
In my view, a partnership with Atiku Abubakar as a pathway to Aso Rock Villa remains the most viable trajectory for an Igbo man/woman to become president of Nigeria in 2027 on the PDP platform. That is because, Atiku Abubakar is liberal, broad-minded, business savvy, and has links by marriage to all the three major ethnic groups-Hausa/Fulani, Yoruba, and Igbo in Nigeria. It implies that Atiku Abubakar’s presidency would likely be more inclusive than the nepotistic-a trademark of the current government in power that is fueling the current gale of separatism.
The point being made here is that under Atiku Abubakar’s watch as president, separatism would be consigned to the dustbin as inclusiveness becomes a major plank in government policy. With inclusiveness becoming a center point of public policy in Nigeria, secessionist tendencies would die a natural death in the manner that Niger delta militancy ceased after the late president Umaru Yar’adua took strategic steps to stabilize the volatile region via his offer of Amnesty to former militants after meeting some of their demands.
The existential reality in Nigeria’s current political equation is that the Igbos need help to actualize their quest for the presidency of Nigeria. As Atilla, the Hun advised, “choose your enemies wisely and your friends carefully.”
It should be obvious to the average Igbo that they can not ascend the throne in Aso Rock Villa by themself. And they must accept that their mastery of business can not overnight translate into the political savviness that is required for someone of Igbo extraction to become the number 1 citizen presiding over our country in Aso Rock Villa seat of power from 2023.
So an alliance with the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar whose political fortune has been built since the time that he first contested against former the late MKO Abiola in Social Democratic Party, SDP primaries held in 1992, remains the most viable political catapult that can propel the Igbo nation into Aso Rock Villa, after Alex Ekwueme’s partnership with Shehu Shagari for the presidency of Nigeria (1979-1983). It is disappointing that it is the last time the Igbo enjoyed worthy political significance in a country that they have indisputable ancestry.
Without adopting or resorting to the application of such cold calculations, the Igbo’s demand to have someone from their ethnic stock as number occupant in
Aso Rock Villa would very likely remain a mission impossible as the demand would continue to be elusive beyond 2023 and even 2027.
As a follow-up article to How To Become President Of Nigeria, l wrote another piece titled: “A Citizen’s Guide on How To Become President of Nigeria” also published on the back page of Thisday newspaper on October 22, 2021, and other mainstream newspapers, including Daily independence, Vanguard as well as online platforms, the following points were brought to the attention of readers:
“Although presidential power play is largely about popularity, it also significantly utilizes conspiracies and alliances as the oxygen and blood for positioning popular candidates for victory in presidential polls.”
In light of the above reality, which ethnic nationality or nationalities in the Nigerian Union is the Igbo building alliance or conspiring with, overtly or covertly? None in my opinion. But l stand to be corrected.
Now, I have read some news items indicating that some ethnic nationalities in the middle belt have been co-opted into the agitation for the Igbo presidency in 2023. The pertinent question is: does the north-central political zone hold significant votes compared to southwest or northwest that are the most prolific sources of votes in our present political configuration? Again, the response is a negative affirmation.
Even as the political link-ups being weaved like spider webs between the Yoruba and the Hausa/Fulani politicians as reflected by the subterranean alliances are being tagged conspiracy theories since they are yet to be acknowledged by the key actors, there are practically neither conspiracy theories nor alliances between the Igbos or any other major tribes for the presidency of Nigeria in 2023.
It is disappointing that while the eastern region is prevaricating or pussyfooting on the strategy to adopt in order to achieve her over 50 years aspiration for self-rule, or at least get critically involved in running the affairs of the only country that can call their own, the southwest and more appropriately, the Yoruba nation, leveraging the ruling party, APC platform is at the cusp of taking the slot of the south for the second time in the presidency rotation calculus which commenced with president Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999. And I get the uncanny sense that the APC is more oriented towards rotating the presidency to the southeast in 2023 than the PDP, as such it may end up specifically zoning the presidency to the Igbos even as the PDP by all intents and purposes are likely to throw it open. But the easterners may not be able to positively convert the opportunity if offered by the APC because their house has not been literarily put in order.
Perhaps, the Igbo nation would be jolted from its reverie if it is reminded of how one time Vice President of Nigeria, Alex Ekwueme of blessed memory suffered the negative effect of Igbo republicanism when multiple fellow Igbos contested against him and split the votes in the PDP primaries held in Jos, Plateau state in 1998.
Although the election of Goodluck Jonathan to serve as Vice President under Umaru Yar’adua’s presidency (2007-10) and his subsequent elevation to the position of president (2010-2015) in the aftermath of Yar’adua’s sudden death offered a window of opportunity for the Igbos to have a say in the country, 2023 represents an epoch for them to be on top of the pecking order in Aso Rock Villa. Beyond the feeling of accomplishment amongst the Igbos that may be elicited by an Igbo presidency, it is even being canvassed in some quarters that it would also moderate their separatist tendencies that have severely damaged the fabric of the unity of our beloved country in the manner that the concession of the presidency to the Yorubas in 1999 via the fielding of both Olusegun Obasanjo and Olu Falae as the presidential candidates of the two major political parties, healed the wound inflicted on the collective psyche of the Yoruba nation by the annulment of June 12, 1993, presidential election; presumably won by their son, MKO Abiola; the assassination of his delightful and heroic wife, Kudirat and his subsequent passage while in the custody of government in the course of his struggle to claim his presidential mandate.
In the likely event that the Igbos have forgotten.
It would interest them to know that of the five presidents that have led Nigeria -Shehu Shagari, Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Yar’adua Adua, Goodluck Jonathan, and Mohammadu Buhari currently in the saddle, only two have been from the south. Both of them- Obasanjo and Jonathan made it to the presidency directly or indirectly following the sudden death of their principals- either via assassination or natural causes.
In other words, they rode on the apron strings of northern Political leaders who got selected after a military putsch, as is the case with Murtala Muhamed and Obasanjo (1976-9) or got elected president via a general election following the death of an elected sitting president, which is what happened with the Umaru Yar’adua and Goodluck Jonathan presidency(2007-15).
It is also pertinent to bear in mind that Obasanjo did not get elected president in 1999 on the voting strength of the Yoruba nation. Rather, he became president despite being rejected by his Yoruba kith and kin that preferred his opponent, Olu Falae.
So he only became no 1 citizen through the political engineering reportedly driven by the duo of former military head of state Ibrahim Babangida and ex-chief of army staff, TY Danjuma. The pair of whom are leading members of the northern intelligentsia or the so-called Kaduna mafia.
It is the foregoing political developments that have informed my unique perspective that it would be more pragmatic for the Igbo nation to be fully conscious of the dynamics of politics in our country in order to be guided and thus be appreciative of the propriety of weaning itself off the utopian idea of winning the presidency without the type of strategic alliances espoused in my earlier proposition.
Allow me to indulge you by being a bit prescient as l reference an AriseTv interview with late northern political power broker and bridge builder, late Isa Funtua in January 2020 where he made a prediction that the Igbo can not be given the presidency on a platter of gold:
“They want to do things on their own and because they are Igbo, we should dash them the presidency?”
The straight-talking lsa Funtua further made the following declarative statement about the Igbos :
“Nobody will carry you like a newly born baby.
With due respect to the Igbo, they fail to understand that when the South-West chose to remain on their own as opposition, they did not go near (national) power”
With the benefit of hindsight, my candid advice to the Igbo nation is that it is time for them to collectively pull themselves out of their current state of lethargy and do their spadework if they truly want to be the ethnic nationality calling the shots in Aso Rock Villa in 2023.
Need l say more?
ONYIBE, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, development strategist, an alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos.
The conversation continues on: www.magnum.ng

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robert opara
Economy

DIPLOMATIC DISCOURSE WITH ROBERT OPARA

by Robert Okpara
written by Robert Okpara 10mins read

The world’s nations have taken developmental strides a notch in ways that have gone beyond our usual pedestrian laid back “transfer technology” mantra of Africa’s sociopolitical class. While lots of African nations and leaders are presently assembled in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia lying through their teeth on ways to extract more funding commitments from the developed countries by presenting phantom development narratives that are absolutely nonexistent, the developed world has left African countries far behind in developing strategies to make life much more bearable and conducive to their citizens. Two decades into the 21st century and the science fiction dreams of the creators of The Jetsons are closer than ever to becoming a reality. With the likes of UBER and BOEING developing eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) flying taxis, it’s a definitive surety that by 2040, there will be about 430,000 such vehicles in operation around the world. This comes as delivery drones are also being increasingly developed and tested with the global market for these tipped to be worth about $5.6bn by 2028. One can only begin to estimate the unprecedented job opportunities coming from this innovation alone. 


African countries are miserably lagging behind in developing strategies for agricultural bumper harvests in any given period because we hardly get our priorities right. Most simple things like toothpicks are imported from foreign lands. There’s hardly investments in other agricultural equipment to send the teeming jobless youths and women to subsistence farming opportunity. Incidentally, these are the 2 most vital demographics that need these nonexistent job opportunities because of their implosion tendencies during a crisis. Listen to Buhari’s sermon on the mount in Riyadh on Tuesday in an attempt to hoodwink his hapless and gullible Mumu audience: “Nigeria’s population today exceeds 200 million people. Some 70% are under 35 years old. When we came into government in 2015, we’re quick to realize long-term peace and stability of our country is dependent on having inclusive and humane policies” Really Mr. President? Which definitive policies are you referring to now? He further added: “We introduced policies that supported investments in Agriculture and food processing. We provided loans and technical support to smallholder farmers through the Anchor Borrowers Program”. Maybe we should enquire about the present unemployment rate in Nigeria. Or can we also ask Mr. President the success rate of his policies in dealing with kidnappings and banditry in Nigeria? Or put it mildly, is the country safer now than in 2015?


While our president is acting Prince Charming to his Riyadh audience and other African countries are neck-deep into coup de’tats and killing sprees, to handle the demands of a future in the Flying Taxi module, in which drones and flying taxis (think large, multi-propeller the drones) share airspace over busy conurbations, proponents of this unique technologies are already ahead of the competition in planning how to build lots of mini-airports dubbed skyports. They reckon that these mini airports will be needed to enable air taxis at the exact spots where the passengers want to go. Prospective companies keen on these unique ventures are in the forefront of strategic mappings, having carried out more than 1,000 test flights of its eVTOL crafts. The companies are already processing their approval documentation from the US regulator, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to begin commercial operations in 2024. These air taxis can carry four passengers, travel at up to 200 mph (322 km/pH), and has a range of more than 150 miles (241km). These crazy and strategic investors envisage offering their aerial ride-sharing service from locations near to where people live, work and want to go. They’re also working closely with cities to ensure their services connect to other modes of transit, co-locating skyports with train stations, airports, and other hubs.

However, whether and when these investors reach a point reminiscent of the unique project will depend on how the industry handles a number of key hurdles. These will include public acceptance, high-volume manufacturing, digital, power, and physical infrastructure investment, and the development of a highly-automated air traffic management system.
The main challenges here are regulatory hurdles and air traffic control systems. I can actually envisage the extreme human factor challenges in the regulation of air traffic routes and multiply by a million. It’s likely to start by establishing standard drones or air taxi routes. Rules will be set, kinks worked out, and standards applied universally to minimize incidents. From my investigations in the US from regulatory authority sources, the biggest barrier is that Flying taxis are yet to be given the authorization to fly commercially by the relevant authorities such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the US or the UK’S Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). I also understand that these hugely rich companies from both sides of the Atlantic are ready to deal with these treating issues.

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Tope Fasua edited
Business & Finance

FOR GOD’S SAKE WHO NEEDS eNAIRA?!

by Tope Fasua
written by Tope Fasua 10mins read

After all, the Naira as is, is already quite digital, isn’t it? Nigeria does have one of the most sophisticated financial systems in the world – especially in terms of payment systems. This is probably necessitated by the fact that because of our low per capita income and the informal structure of the economy, so many Nigerians altogether have to make millions of small transfers daily, especially to dependants. In developed countries, this is not the case. A typical worker abroad has all the debits – for rent or mortgage, insurance, taxes, tenement, loans, and so on, set up such that they hit their account by month-end and they get by on what is left. Our economy – perhaps like many other African economies – is structurally different from what obtains in those places. Therefore, we saw quite a bit of innovation in our financial sector that may not be deemed particularly necessary elsewhere. Some of us economists criticize the fact that the financial sector in Nigeria is running ahead of everyone else. We call it financialization, as different from what we actually need; industrialization. We also see that quirk manifest in the yearly declaration of superlative profits by our banks, even in a year like 2020 when half the time businesses were shut, and in the face of expanding poverty in the land.

So, who needs an e-Naira?  Why is it necessary?  Is it going to solve the problem of inflation, and corruption, and unemployment, and everything that ails the economy? Will it lead to a revaluation of the Naira which seems to be in a death spiral?  Is the idea just a further ‘financialization’ of the economy?  Or is this not just another gimmick to embezzle funds at the CBN? All these and more are the questions that Nigerians are asking.

I think the e-Naira is very useful, timely, and perhaps one of the smartest things that our central bank has been able to pull off in a while, even though it will certainly not solve every problem that ails our economy. I will therefore attempt to break down some of its likely uses below, even though I must admit that the whole idea of such hyper-digital currency, is still nouvelle to everyone in the world. In other words, a number of central banks around the world are taking the initiative, and 90% of them are thinking in this direction, but certain mistakes will be made, lessons will be learned before the concept stabilizes. The future of currency is digital. And the future is here. Let’s look at the critical questions:

What is the e-Naira?

The e-Naira is a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). Though the Naira was fairly digital before (as you can transfer value from your phone or laptop once you are connected to the internet, and via USSD without internet), this is a digital currency on fire! However, unlike other digital currencies (cryptocurrencies), the CBDC is backed by the sovereign – Nigeria – and is tied to the Naira (fiat currency).  If we need to compare it to a cryptocurrency, we can compare it to say USDT (a stable currency tied to the US Dollar, called Tether).

What is this idea of being backed by the Naira?

Well, this means that the e-Naira and the fiat Naira will not diverge in value. The two types of currency will be the same value at all times. Also, that the currency is backed by the government through the CBN is comfort, because people know that the CBN cannot default on its obligations. Investments with the central bank of a country are deemed to be the safest kind that anyone could undertake.  Ordinarily, cryptocurrencies have some issues. People die, and if no one knows the key (their pin), their money is lost forever. People save their keys on devices. Devices get stolen or corrupted and their money is gone if they have no backups anywhere. Meanwhile, people are scared of backing up their keys anywhere because if anyone gets access to it, they can be wiped out. All sorts of issues occur because the idea is still developing. We have even heard of situations where crypto exchanges have collapsed (like Quadriga in Canada), and those who left money on the table for the exchange to help manage, were wiped out. And with cryptocurrencies, there is no arbiter; no one to run to; no one to guarantee the transactions; no deposit insurance. Nothing. It’s usually a case of ‘who sent you?

Where did the idea come from?

Whereas the central banks will hardly mention this, it is my strong belief that this is a reaction by central banks to the idea of cryptocurrencies. What started circa 2006/7 as a crazy idea by some crazy folks who were rather miffed by how central banks especially in developed countries bailed out investment and commercial bankers who had used people’s deposits to gamble on arcane derivative products like Credit Default Swaps, Collateralized Debt Obligations and such like, had become a major issue, with a market valuation of more than $1 trillion. There are suddenly more than 8,000 cryptocurrencies around the world. It has become a swarm and no one knew which crazy bee among the lot could sting the system in the eye at any point in time. The proponents of cryptocurrencies actually started out with the radical idea of taking down what we know as the financial system today, for past infractions – including for arbitrarily printing currencies or hiking interest rates thereby devaluing the money in people’s pockets and accounts, in the name of monetary policy management. They call their plan ‘decentralized’ banking or finance (Defi), which means ‘down with Central Banks!’. The only thing they didn’t reckon with was that they will need the central banks, investment, and commercial banks to achieve this laudable feat.  But will the traditional banks and central banks allow them?  The central banks then got wise and decided to piggyback on their idea, to save themselves, the banking sector, and the government. Why? The day you take down central banks, you will have taken down every bank because there’ll be nobody to manage currencies or maintain sanity or fidelity in the system. Then how do governments get their taxes? In what currency? Anarchy is the endpoint.  This move by the central banks around the world is to prevent themselves from becoming so weakened and made vulnerable by the crypto warriors.

In the case of e-Naira particularly, Nigeria showed up as the second-highest trading nation in cryptocurrency as at April 2021, allegedly. We are talking of a country with barely $2,000 in per capita income, and the lowest in the world in terms of economic complexity. In other words, the most unsophisticated nation in the world in terms of what we produce. Could it be corruption and crime money driving this… in the main? Therefore, it was important for the CBN to have a response. If the CBN was sitting on its hands and whining, that is when we should be concerned.

Which problem will it solve?

For one, the future of everything is digital. The future of man himself is digital. The world has stopped talking of the internet of things, now it is the internet of EVERYTHING. If the future of currency is digital – and indeed these young Generation Z kids (born between the year 2000 and today), and raised by their smartphones only understand digital things – then Nigeria had better get on board and fast. So, the earlier we get on this new reality, the better. But which other problem can it solve? Inflation? Ehmmmm, long shot. But e-Naira can help. How? For one, the more successful e-Naira becomes, the less money the CBN will spend printing new money. This should reduce the CBN’s budget. However, if the e-Naira is successful, then the world will have a little more respect for our currency, and the Naira may appreciate it a bit. If the Naira appreciates, then inflation will slow down, because a considerable part of the inflation we suffer today is as a result of imported goods, and the adjustments that local producers are making, in the fear of further devaluation. You see, devaluation of currency does not only mean that imported goods will cost more. In fact, in our economy, locally-produced goods prices leap much higher. Visit any local store or the market and see what has happened to prices in the last one or two years! Nigerians are really struggling to survive.

So, e-Naira can help us in getting a firmer naira. And there is one other reason for that. If it is what they say it will be, then the e-Naira wallet is sitting in CBN’s books. This means that the e-Naira can, subject to limits, allow Naira to be more convertible. What does this mean? You see, about 35 years ago, when you travel to London, you don’t need to be chasing pounds and dollars around before you go. You just go. When you get to London you change some naira directly into pounds right at the airport, or you go to Oxford Street and make the change. Then we started losing it. They kept devaluing. And no one was sure what the value of the naira will be the next day, so people stopped accepting the naira. But since e-Naira is a central bank currency, sitting right on CBN systems, we should be able to convert eNaira to any other currency in a jiffy and get transactions cleared without the rigmarole of going to a commercial bank. This is a great advantage, isn’t it?  Surely the CBN will set limits. Equally, the CBN hopes to use this platform to ease the inflow of foreign currency into the country, by enabling Nigerians to sidestep the usually punitive charges taken by money transfer organizations. Companies like Western Union and Moneygram have always taken delight in slamming transactions heading to Nigeria with high fees. Now remittances could be easier… but you will get official rates. The black market for foreign currency will still exist, but this kind of reform could be the shock treatment that reduces the spread to something negligible.

Which other problem will it solve?

So, it’s really looking like if some Nigerians and their collaborators don’t spoil this with the usual waywardness, cynicism, lack of patriotism, predilection to defraud, or deception from high places, we may be on to something great with this e-Naira. We may be buying a new lease of life for the currency and the economy. Already, as the CBN stopped selling millions of US Dollars to thousands of BDCs every week, our foreign reserves have leaped by about $4 billion in just a couple of months. We are talking of $40 billion now. That’s great news. Even on the streets, the dollar frenzy has tapered. Smart Alecs have probably found other vocations. We knew they were just bragging and trying to tip this country over so that they can pick up the pieces. When last I checked, the Mallams will not buy dollars at more than N550, with prospects of further strengthening.

The Central Bank of Nigeria also hopes to use this eNaira for better monetary policy management. For every eNaira created, that is one Naira more in the direct control of the CBN. There will therefore be better oversight over Money Supply. The CBN – like their brother central banks around the world – believes that this is a great tool to reach out to citizens in periods of crisis by being able to make direct transfers to citizens where necessary. Of course, the Bank has to mind operational risks lest some smart guys begin to play games with their system.  Citizens must also continue to alert the CBN to wherever lapses may occur. I have also heard it said that this is like the CBN taking on the functions of commercial banks. Well, it is the sign of the times. It is the evolution of banking and finance. The banks are smart enough to see, that the central banks are only trying to save the entire traditional banking system as we know it from cataclysm.

I will urge Nigerians to be less cynical but more circumspect. Let us see if this initiative will deliver. Let us do away with all that negative view of the country. Truly, leaders have failed us. But we need not fail ourselves and enter into a spiral of grief. Nothing is bad about this country. Billions of people around the world would wish they had what we have all year round.  We have a country to save. And a currency too. Let’s get on with it.

So, yes. We do need an eNaira.

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minister-of-petroleum-in-nigeria
Economy

Nigeria Though An Attractive Destination For Business, Investors Must Read This

by Abdulrauf Aliyu
written by Abdulrauf Aliyu 10mins read

Nigeria is no doubt an attractive investment destination for multinational corporations seeking to do business in Africa. Yet, it remains a difficult market to do business in. My conversations with senior business executives, particularly those from big multinationals, often focused on the high cost and difficulty of doing business in Nigeria as one of the biggest disincentives for them to invest in the country.

In one illustration of these difficulties, consider that Nigeria currently ranks 131 out of 190 countries in the 2020 World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business rankings, 100 places behind China, 93 places behind Rwanda, and just 1 place above the Niger Republic. The country’s ranking in paying taxes (159) and registering a property (183) is particularly bad.

The main reason for the poor performance is a complex and unpredictable regulatory landscape. Inconsistent policymaking and subjective interpretations of legislation on the ground are major obstacles to business. Moreover, regulations can change from state to state, just as they do in other large nations.

If entrepreneurs or multinational corporations want to succeed in Nigeria, they need to understand the country’s individual states and their business environments in a lot more detail. Most of them approach Nigeria as one market when they should be thinking of the different states as individual markets. After all, what works in Anambra or Kaduna state will not necessarily work in say Sokoto or Lagos state.

Nigeria is a large, fragmented, and heterogeneous market. Within the country, there are large – and often underestimated – regional differences in language, culture, talent, infrastructure, and wealth, all of which lead to wide variations in business landscapes.

Nigerian states can be compared to individual countries. For instance, Nigeria’s most populous state, Kano, has a population equal to that of Senegal or that of Liberia and Tunisia combined, while Nigeria’s most prosperous state, Lagos, has the 7th largest economy in Africa which is significantly bigger than that of the whole of Kenya, East Africa’s most dynamic country, with a nominal per capita income of more than $5,000, more than double the Nigerian average.

Cultural variations are important. Other than the well-documented differences in language and development, demographic differences are also significant. For instance, Southern Nigeria is older, with higher spending capabilities and a more skilled population, while Northern Nigeria is younger and relatively poor. North Nigerians prefer speaking Hausa, while South Nigerians prefer communicating in English or their respective native language. These cultural differences have a significant impact on multinationals’ talent and organizational decisions.

Nigeria’s federal structure also leaves certain key policy decisions to the states. Policies relating to infrastructure development, land and labour, healthcare, and transport fall under the purview of the states – as do most licensing and permitting.

This decentralized policymaking, as well as differing priorities among state governments – from city/urban management and rural development to improving infrastructure or attracting investment – have resulted in wide variations in the business landscape across the 36 states of Nigeria.

For instance, the 2018 World Bank Doing Business in Nigeria Survey compares business regulations and measures progress in four regulatory areas: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, registering property, and enforcing contracts. which map business environment conditions across the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory, reports that it takes an average of 44 days and 8 procedures in Kaduna to register a property thus making it the number one in Nigeria as against the likes of Lagos state with an average of 105 and 12 procedures or Sokoto state with an average of 85 days and 12 procedures, thus ranking them as number 16 and 30 respectively in Nigeria.

Similarly, the time it takes to enforce contracts varies. For instance, while it takes 307 days and a 25.2% claim value as cost in Kaduna state, In Sokoto state it takes  568 days with a 27.1% claim value as cost, while in Lagos state, it takes 447 days with a 42.0% claim value as the cost

I expect state(s) policy to become even more prominent in determining the overall investment potential of the country. This can be made possible if the country’s federal government encourages competitive federalism – an approach that will enable the 36 states to compete for investments based on their individual economic policies and ease of procedures. Similarly, the federal government should consider devolving power to state governments, thus, encouraging them to make their own economic policies.

Aside from understanding how Nigeria’s states differ, companies or investors must also create a well-thought-out plan for allocating resources across states. Most firms find it difficult to effectively compare markets and develop a structured prioritization process. Based on my experience of working with entrepreneurs or business executives doing in or seeking to start a business in Nigeria across different industries, I find that a simple yet powerful four-step framework can help them effectively prioritize markets in the country

Measure risk-adjusted opportunity

I recommend that entrepreneurs, senior business executives, or institutional investors first measure the risk-adjusted opportunity in each of Nigeria’s 36 states by analyzing leading indicators of the market’s size, growth, industry clusters, and stability. (Industry cluster metrics measure the size of the pool of potential customers for B2B or B2C companies, and market stability metrics measure institutional, business, and social stability.) Example indicators include size (population, for instance, or state gross domestic product), expected growth, industry clusters, and market stability (including factors from workplace injury rates to crime).

This first step would allow prospective investors or entrepreneurs to measure not only the potential in a market (size, growth, and industry clusters) but also the associated risk (market stability). This is important to get an assessment of the realistic potential of each state.

Measure operating environment

Entrepreneurs and investors should then measure the operating environment of each of the 36 states by analyzing indicators related to infrastructure, talent, finance, and the business and tax environment. The data for this exercise are publicly available on most state’s websites or the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics reports among several others. Example indicators include infrastructure (such as the number of major seaports or airports), access to talent (the number of people enrolled in higher education), access to finance, and the business and tax environment, and the ease of doing business.

The business and operating environment vary remarkably across states. Focusing on those that have a strong operating environment — for instance, high ease of doing business score (Kaduna) or well-developed infrastructure (FCT) — can help entrepreneurs or business executives lower the cost of doing business in the country.

Evaluate results

If we plot the risk-adjusted opportunity and operating environment of the different states on a graph, we would clearly see which states offer the highest return on investment and represent the greatest opportunity for business. It is advisable that business executives or investors focus on a state with the largest opportunity and the strongest operating environment so that they are able to increase the return on their investment.

Prioritize states

Entrepreneurs, business executives, or investors must also align their Nigerian focus and strategy to the outcome. They can do this by categorizing the states into four groups in order of priority.

The first group of states – those with high opportunity and a strong operating environment – are category 1 states where entrepreneurs or business executives should focus on enhancing performance. Most big businesses or multinationals already have a presence in these states and executives should undertake a strategic approach to improving operations and capturing opportunities in these high-performing states. I recommend examining areas of geographical expansion within the states and conducting internal reviews to identify areas of operational inefficiencies.

The second category of states – those with moderate opportunity and a good regulatory environment – are states in which entrepreneurs or business executives should consider expanding their presence. There are benefits in expanding to states that are geographically close to category 1 states, so I suggest a ‘hubbing strategy for expansion, i.e. executives should prioritize expanding to category 2 states that are relatively close to the high performing states to capitalize on cultural similarities and capture economies of scale.

The third category of states – those with moderate opportunity but a weak regulatory environment – are those where executives should monitor growth rates and explore potential as the state governments continue to improve the regulatory environment by implementing reform. Examining details of various policy initiatives aimed at attracting investment is critical for companies to determine the right time to enter these markets. Several central and eastern states fall into this category.

And finally, the fourth category – those with small risk-adjusted opportunities and a weak operating environment – are likely to be costly investment destinations for multinationals with low returns. Executives should de-prioritize these states.

Often considered a country of countries, Nigeria can be a difficult yet rewarding market for entrepreneurs, business executives, and institutional investors. Those that have a structured approach to prioritize Nigeria’s states can navigate the complex market effectively and make strategic decisions backed by quantitative insights. The approach presented here can enable entrepreneurs and business executives to prioritize those states that are business-friendly, thereby lowering their operating costs and helping them get the highest return on their investment. Adopting a state-wise approach is key to getting it right in Nigeria.

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udom-emmanuel
The Editor's Pick

Dawn of the new Akwa Ibom

by Joseph Edgar
written by Joseph Edgar 10mins read

As I sit in the belly of the giant Ibom Air aircraft as we embark on a return journey, Orman Esin’s walk on the Runway comes to mind

Orman Esin is the Commissioner for Culture and Tourism and core to the evolving tourist ecosystem that is tying IBom Air, the many hospitality concerns like the famed Ibom Hotel and Resort with beautifully managed boutique oasis like the Monty Suites and world-class events like this Fashion Show, the Christmas Village and an emerging theatre culture with the staging of the much expected Ufok Ibaan come December.

In a chat with Orman during Lunch at the Ibom Resort, he talks so passionately about the Christmas Village. His baby.

He boasts. We are expecting 30,000 people daily for one month, never happened, he gloats sounding like me.

Security is top-notch and Akwa Ibom will be the center of the Universe.

His boasts have a basis. For some time now even during the Pandemic, the Christmas Village has pulled in billions into the State economy boosted internal tourism and structured infrastructure creating employment opportunities for its people.

It is no wonder that the Udom Administration has put tourism and hospitality the main fulcrum of its push towards legacy as it begins a wind-down.

This night, Orman walks the runaway having executed a major coup. Pulling in the billion Naira Big Brother Stars into the state with some legendary personalities like Mudi and Charly Boi who unfortunately couldn’t make it.

The scene was electric. The host Uti Nwachukwu himself a Big Brother Alumnus was expansive in his praises for Akwa Ibom and the talents on show were excellent.

As Nollywood elites led by devastatingly beautiful home girl Ini Edo give the front row of the fashion shows the Kardashian effect, Akwa Ibom begins to unveil its new self.

The State is better positioning itself, despite some grim economic statistics as can be gleaned in some reports, the air of optimism cannot be missed.

6m people, rich in Natural resources, with one of the highest literacy rates and a 70% internet penetration amongst youths, Akwa Ibom parades well-prepared condiments ready to be pulled together into a major economic force by an entrepreneurial push at leadership.

Akwa Ibom is burnished Gold. Waiting to be polished by the right leadership.

Udom Emmanuel in his steady and sure-handed manner has consolidated the initial gains of the state especially in the areas of infrastructure, pulling in FDI among others like the new Urea Plant and the Deep Sea Port project amongst other such huge capital intensive projects.

So last night, was a clear illustration that the state was no longer that of unending potentials but was on the road to the actualization of varied visions.

Beside me was the Director of Tourism for the State and you could see the perfect blend of the old and the new.

He sat excitedly in his white Native spotting his Akwa Ibom felt hat in sharp contrast to Orman’s new age get up which he had complimented with an elegant crucifix that looks like something Kanye west will wear, you could feel the fluidity that had provoked this storm.

The show was exciting and grand. The Big Brother stars played up to their billing with Emmanuel the Homeboy taking in a lot of the applause with his proud parents in the audience, Akwa Ibom opened its warm embrace to the stars.

Then Orman led Senator Akon to unveil the prototype of this year’s Christmas Village amidst a sumptuous dinner and dances by a well-curated traditional ensemble made up of some very beautiful Akwa Ibom damsels.

Then at the last minute, I look across and see my friend Meflyn seated just behind the Senator.

Meflyn Awanna is the Special Assistant to His Excellency on Entrepreneurial Development and from what I am hearing she is doing a brilliant job.

The 19-year-old protégé who displayed despite losing his mum a few days earlier I hear is a product of the training and engagement Meflyn’s team is fostering on the system.

Human Capital Development will provide the fluidity the system needs to oil its economic growth and this is already happening with what was being showcased and many more examples all over the state.

As the Ibom Air Plane taxes on the runaway, I catch a glimpse of a massive construction site taking off just by my left-hand side and then to my right, the lush greenery that seems to have captivated me perfectly illustrating the partnership between man and Nature as this oasis of love stands out in the madness that is today’s Nigeria.

This was truly a brilliant weekend.

Duke of Shomolu

Ufok Ibaan will be playing at the Ibom Hall, uyo Dec 23,24, 25 2021. Book your tickets now.

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minister-of-petroleum-in-nigeria
Economy

Lesson From The Bida/Mokwa/Kwara/ Lapai/ Lambata Truck Drivers Strike

by Denzel Harrington
written by Denzel Harrington 10mins read

Recently, truck drivers who regularly ply the Kwara/Mokwa/Bida/Lambata road blocked the route to all forms of road transportation in demand for the federal government to repair that road. Their seven-day action, although sabotaged economic activities to a great extent, was hailed as well-deserved, in the opinion of many who feel that road has been neglected for too long. And the take is, depending on the ultimate upshot of their action, a new culture to arm-twist the federal government to do its work may be evolving. Truck drivers’ rebellion might be an example to emulate in the future.

As a matter of fact, the federal government has already started making some concessions to the demand of the drivers. And their demand is appropriate, “make the roads pliable!”

The drivers had blocked the road in protest of the Niger State Government blocking the Bida/Minna road, which had been closed to articulated vehicles owing to construction work. That road had been used as an alternative route because the Kwara/Bida/Lambata Lapai road, which is the main road linking the Southwest to the North has become virtually impassable. And lip service has been paid over the years regarding that road.

For example, since 2018, when N33 billion was allocated by the federal government to rebuild the road, virtually nothing has been achieved, as the condition has only worsened since then with every rainy season.

The economic importance of that road cannot be overstated. A large swathe of the north, which depends on the ports of Lagos depends on that road to convey manufactured and imported goods to end-users. On the other hand, the Southwest depends on the road to receive agricultural products from parts of the north, which depend on that road. There can be no gainsaying the fact that the road condition has contributed to the rising cost of food, since perishable foods that should be conveyed over a 24 hour period from north to southwest take days and get wasted, to the loss of farmers and the larger economy.

A highway network can be likened to the human cardiovascular system. Good pavement and minimal construction zones keep a local economy moving, healthy, and growing, but potholes and slow-moving construction projects are like plaque – they render regional commerce sclerotic.

When interstate highways are pockmarked by rough, vehicle-ruining roads, it takes longer to deliver goods in and out of the region. Delivery vehicles will be damaged more often (flat tires, bent tire rims, broken axles, etc.) and need more repairs.

Labour and fuel costs increase when traffic moves slowly, due, simply too bad conditions, or lane closures during extended resurfacing projects – causing drivers, their goods, and passengers to endure more time per trip.

The same applies to municipalities. When bad streets are all that connect consumers to a shopping center, the options to shop online, in stores elsewhere, or not at all become much more attractive. The online alternative might come with a higher price if parcel delivery services begin to tally and charge for the added costs of delivering in specific areas. But especially regrettable is the billions of man-hours lost in traffic, most notably in cities like Lagos, largely due to potholes.

Many intra and interstate travelers can identify with the above scenarios. With the negative impacts of COVID-19 on the populace such as loss of jobs, salaries slash, to name a few, coupled with the increase in the prices of fuel and electricity,  improving the pliability of the country’s roads is a veritable and the most impactful moves the federal and state governments can make to assuage the pains of the masses.

A regular user of that road, Aliyu Usman says if the roads were in good condition there would be reduced incidences of banditry, kidnapping, and other criminal acts. He observed that such criminal activities occur at bad spots where vehicles must slow down due to bad spots on the road.

One important take from the saga is that the blockade by the truck drivers was only called off after the state government shifted grounds to allow the trucks to use the Minna-Bida Road, which happens to be an interim arrangement to allow the federal government to mobilize contractors to site to recondition the road, at least in phases.

The success of the truck drivers’ rebellion to the arm-twist government to do the needful may embolden road users suffering similar menace in other parts of the country to do the needful: ‘fix the roads’.   

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Bashorun J.K. Randle
Economy

THE FIRST LADIES (AND THE LAST MAN) PT2

by Bashorun J.K. Randle
written by Bashorun J.K. Randle 10mins read

“WHY WE HAVE NOT REMOVED DEAD PERSONS FROM VOTER REGISTER, BY INEC”

The Independent National Electoral Commission has linked its inability to expunge dead Nigerians from the nation’s voter registration to the absence of adequate data of dead people.

INEC chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu stated this when he received chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC), Nasir Kwarra, at the headquarters of the commission in Abuja on Friday.

Currently, 84,004,084 Nigerians are registered to vote but there are fears that the INEC register is grossly inaccurate due to the failure of the commission to remove dead persons from it.

INEC and the NPC had in 2018 signed a Memorandum of Understanding that would see the NPC providing information of dead voters to the electoral umpire but not much has been achieved.

Yakubu explained that the commission had been conducting a periodical cleaning of the voter register by removing ineligible persons or multiple registrants from it using a combination of technology.

He, however, regretted that technology cannot assist the commission to identify and remove dead persons from the record.

He maintained that although INEC has the largest biometric register of citizens in Nigeria complete with photographs and fingerprint information for voter authentication, there is a need to further enhance the credibility of the voter register.

The INEC boss, therefore, called on the NPC to periodically avail the electrical umpire data of deceased Nigerians for a proper clean-up of the register.

“Perhaps you may wish to start by availing us with the list of prominent Nigerians who have passed on, civil and public servants compiled from the official records of Government Ministries, Departments and Agencies and other Nigerians from hospital and funeral records across the country,” Yakubu told Kwara.

“We appreciate that this is a herculean task but that is partly why we have an NPC. We are confident that NPC has the capacity to do so. This information is critical for INEC to enhance the credibility of the National Register of Voters,” Yakubu said.

Curiously, old boys of St. Gregory’s College love dogs.  However, their wives are not so keen on keeping dogs as pets.  Beware.  Hence, they have sent out a huge warning courtesy of the front page of “The Punch” newspaper of September 25, 2021.

“UNGUARDED DOG BITES OFF ONDO UNDERGRADUATE’S PRIVATE PARTS.”

 “A dog, identified as Charlie, has bitten off a part of the private parts of a yet-to-be-identified undergraduate of the Adekunle Ajasin University, in the Akungba Akoko area of Ondo State.

City Round gathered that the student had visited a friend at the Vanilla Villa, around the Permanent Site, outside the school premises when the dog attacked him.

During the attack, the dog reportedly bit the victim’s private parts but some good Samaritans came to his rescue.

The Public Relations Officer of the institution’s Students Union Government, Oluwafemi Adegbeyeni, who confirmed the incident to our correspondent, said the undergraduate was rushed to a nearby hospital.

He said, “From what I gathered, the student went to visit a friend at Vanilla Villa, around the Permanent Site. Maybe knowingly or unknowingly he was bitten by the unguarded dog. The victim was quickly rushed to a hospital for treatment because the dog bit off part of his private parts.

He is currently being treated and still alive and that is the information I got from people who live in the area. The incident happened in the morning and from what we gathered, the dog has been a threat to people living in that area but we have been warning students to secure their dogs. The incident happened outside the school premises.”

A post on Instagram made by Instablog9ja showed when men of the Ondo State Police Command arrested the dog at a hostel where the incident occurred.

Footage attached to the post showed a man tying the dog to a patrol van. The police were later seen taking the dog away in the van.

Efforts to get a reaction from the state Police Public Relations Officer proved abortive.

The Police Public Relations Officer in the state, Funmi Odulami, said the dog bit the upper thigh of the victim, adding that the impact of the attack affected the undergraduate’s scrotum.

She said, “A pit-bull dog known as Charlie, two years and three months old, owned by one Abass Olagunju, 24, a 400-level Animal Science student at the Faculty of Agriculture, Adekunle Ajasin University, attacked and bit one Sadiq Opeyemi, 18, 100-level of the same department, at their hostel in Vanilla Villa Permanent Site, Akungba.

Opeyemi Sadiq, who was running to meet the owner of the dog, was attacked by Charlie. The bite affected the skin of his scrotum. He was immediately rushed to Inland Specialist Hospital, Ikare, where he was treated and discharged.”

As evidence that human beings can be as savage as dogs, “The Punch” newspaper added the following headline:

“HOW HOODLUMS KILLED LAGOS POLICE CHIEF WITH MASTER’S IN LAW MONTHS TO RETIREMENT”

“Fresh facts have revealed the gruesome manner in which a Chief Superintendent of Police attached to the Lagos State Police Command, Kazeem Abonde, was murdered on Thursday by hoodlums in the Ajao Estate area of the state.

Abonde, who was also a lawyer, was killed nine months after his retirement from the Nigeria Police Force and became a full-time legal practitioner at a chamber based in Osogbo, Osun State, City Round learned on Friday.

He was lynched during a joint operation on the enforcement of the ban on motorcycles plying restricted routes in the state while one of the police operational vans took to the neighborhood was destroyed.

The raid was reportedly carried out by a tactical team comprising operatives from the Operations Department of the state police command headquarters, Ikeja, the Lagos State Environmental and Special Offences (Enforcement) Unit, Rapid Response Squad, and the Ajao Estate Police Division.

The spokesperson for the police in the state, CSP Adekunle Ajisebutu, in a statement on Friday, said the team had also raided flashpoints in the area and wanted to leave the estate when the hoodlums struck.

He said, “After the successful operations which led to the arrest of some of the suspects, other criminal elements and hoodlums in their large numbers laid siege to the exit of the estate and attacked the policemen with guns, cutlasses and other weapons. Unfortunately, during the fatal attack, CSP Kazeem Sumonu Abonde attached to the Operations Department of the command was brutally killed by the hoodlums.

“The DPO Ajao Estate, CSP Abdullahi Malla, and other police officers equally sustained varying degrees of injury. The corpse of the deceased officer has been deposited at the Yaba Mainland Hospital for autopsy.”

Ajisebutu said the Commissioner of Police, Hakeem Odumosu, had ordered an investigation into the incident and vowed to ensure that those responsible for the dastardly act would be brought to book.

A colleague of the deceased who spoke on condition of anonymity told our correspondent on Friday that Abonde was supposed to retire from the Force in June 2022 and had planned to practice as a lawyer afterward.

“He was already preparing for his retirement. He was a lawyer and wanted to join a chamber he co-founded in Osun after retirement. Abonde was a fine officer and we will sorely miss him,” the colleague said.

Another source close to the late Abonde said the 54-year-old slain officer was enlisted in the Nigeria Police Force in June 1987 and rose through the ranks to a CSP in June 2019, lamenting that his death was devastating.

“He studied Law at the Lagos State University. He graduated in 2014 and proceeded to Law School. He became a barrister in law in 2016 and went back to LASU for a master’s degree. He bagged LLM (Master in Law) in 2019,” the source added.

Our correspondent learned that Abonde, a  native of Ona Ara Local Government, Oyo State, was the Divisional Police Officer, Ilemba Hausa, Lagos, before he was posted to DOPs, his last place of assignment where he was Operation Officer 1.

Meanwhile, the Executive Chairman, Isolo Local Council Development Area, Adebayo Olasoju, has appealed for calm by the residents of Ajao Estate and other concerned parties regarding the attack.

Olasoju in a statement on Friday by his Chief Press Secretary, Iskilu Alao, said the chairman, some officials of the council, and the Area Commander, Area D Command had visited the scene of the incident.

The statement read in part, “Ajao Estate being a major entry point especially to foreigners coming into our dear nation deserves the serenity obtainable in a city of equal status in advanced countries.

While the investigation into both the remote and immediate causes of the violence is being carried out, the law-abiding citizens of Ajao Estate are hereby urged to go about their lawful business as there is enough security presence to forestall resurgence.”

The Chairman, Community Development Committee, Isolo LCDA, Adesegun Olatunde, said the executive had stopped movement of Okada motorcycles on the estate as one of the immediate measures to address the violence.

He said, “No okada motorcycle is allowed on the estate for now. We are going to have a PCRC (Police Community Relations Committee) meeting today (Friday) to deliberate more on it. Some years back, they (okada motorcycle riders) had issues and they went destroyed an armored tank.

After that incident, they were not allowed to operate in Ajao Estate. But after the #EndSARS protests, they suddenly resurfaced and started operating. On Osolo Way and the 7/8 bus stop, you would see them on the road. They were not organized at all. Now, they have created problems for themselves. You cannot kill a senior police officer and go scot-free.”

The task force said on Thursday that 410 motorcycles were impounded on prohibited routes in Isolo, Ojodu-Berger, Ojota, Lagos Island, Surulere, and Second Rainbow along Apapa-Oshodi Expressway.”

“The Guardian” newspaper confirmed its appetite for dodgy (or dog) stories with its front-page story on September 25, 2021.

“ANAMBRA DOG TRAGEDY:  UNDERSTANDING PERSONALITIES OF FOREMOST DOMESTICATED ANIMAL.”

“The dog has been a human companion for more than 18,000 years, making it one of the first domesticated animals in history. However, keeping dogs as a pet comes with a lot of responsibilities. In fact, in the southeastern part of the country, there is an adage that warns thus: “The dog that laughs also bites”. Thus, as friendly as dogs are, they can also be very aggressive.

In a response to a question on why people keep pets, particularly dogs, on www.quora.com, one MJ Lejer wrote: “Because dogs can be a wonderful addition to someone’s family and/or themselves. Dogs are affectionate, loyal, loving, can offer an alarm system, and are the warm and cuddly nest to you if you have been kind and loving to them! But dogs are a responsibility; they require care, food, water, shelter… and some training if they are to be good pet citizens. And that responsibility can be from eight to 20+ years, depending on the breed! But their companionship and unconditional love can be a tremendous reward for taking care of them right!”

Lejer’s submission is quite apt, especially when considered against the backdrop of the incident that happened at Global Growth Academy, Amokpo, Umuanunwa, Nteje, Anambra State, last Saturday, where 11 dogs belonging to the owner of the school feasted on a two-year-old pupil.

It was reported that the school’s proprietor, Chief Chinedu Oka, is a returnee from the United Kingdom and that the victim was taken to the school for enrolment by his parent when the incident happened.

A source had said: “A parent took the child to the school for enrolment when the incident happened. The owner of the school rears dogs on the premises, despite the community’s warning against it. While the parent of the child was perfecting the documentation and registration of the child, the child wandered off.

On sighting the baby, one of the dogs rushed at him and dragged him into their pen where about 10 of them devoured the two-year-old boy without any school official on hand to rescue him.”

The development reportedly angered members of the community’s vigilante group who entered the school’s premises and killed all the dogs.

A similar incident had happened in September 2014 at 35 Adegboyega Street, Akesan, Igando, Lagos. In the incident, then four-year-old Omoniho Isaac Abraham narrowly escaped death as two dogs belonging to the caretaker of the house, Stanley Jegede, pulled out his skull. Two elder brothers to the victim also got injured while trying to evade the dogs’ attack.

Narrating the incident then, the father of the victim, Abraham Odia, said his wife went to buy something for the children, shortly after she left, the children came downstairs with their bicycles to play as he lives upstairs.

But unknown to them, the giant dogs belonging to the landlord’s brother, Jegede, were not chained.

“Immediately the kids came down, two of the dogs chased them. The third dog was chained. The children ran back upstairs, but the dogs chased them up. Three of them ran up, but the dogs still attacked them forcing the other two who were 12 and seven years old to jump down and leave their younger one who could not jump. They sustained fractures on their legs. The dogs pounced on the boy who could not jump, tore his skull, and battered his face,” he said.

What could have gone wrong with the dogs that made them turn violent? Or was it the fault of the victims? What should a household consider before choosing a dog as a pet and what kind of dog should they get?

The wives of Old Boys of St. Gregory’s College were adamant:

“NO DOGS ALLOWED WITHIN THE PREMISES

OF THE COLLEGE”

At King’s College, some dogs are more equal than others !!

Bashorun J.K. Randle is a former
President of the Institute of the Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN)
and former Chairman of KPMG Nigeria and Africa Region.
He is currently the Chair

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Bashorun J.K. Randle
Economy

THE FIRST LADIES (AND THE LAST MAN) PT1

by Bashorun J.K. Randle
written by Bashorun J.K. Randle 10mins read

Straight after delivering my address to the Society of Women Accountants of Nigeria I walked into an ambush outside the hall.  It turned out that among women chartered accountants there is a core group – those who are married to old boys of St. Gregory’s College, Obalende, Lagos.  They were wearing T-shirts (Green and Purple !!) with “J K  For  President” boldly emblazoned.  What they wanted was for me to agree to their terms for supporting my candidacy for election as the president of St. Gregory’s College Old Boys Association.  They have been fiercely loyal regardless of the fact that it is their husbands who would actually vote.   They assured me that their beloved husbands would do their bidding to the last man.

They promptly informed me that they had constituted themselves into a focus group with the principal aim of taking on the cynics who have been making loud noises over the prospects of an old boy of King’s College (which I am) emerging as the President of St. Gregory’s College Old Boys’ Association. 

After all, this is Nigeria – the land of the free and home of the brave.  They particularly like my campaign slogan which is a quotation:

“If you find a path with no obstacles,

it probably doesn’t lead anywhere”

  • Frank A. Clark

(1860 to 1936).

What has galvanized my campaign is the bombshell announcement I made at both my nationwide broadcast and World Press Conference that within one hundred days of becoming the President of St. Gregory’s College Old Boys’ Association, I shall introduce to the letter (and the spirit) the radical views espoused by Emeritus Professor Olugbemiro Jegede when he was interviewed by Christian T. Alabi.

In bold headlines, “Daily Trust” newspaper delivered the message on its front page on September 30, 2021.

“WHY NIGERIA [ESPECIALLY ST. GREGORY’S COLLEGE] MUST ABOLISH EXAMINATIONS IN ITS EDUCATION SYSTEM”

“Why the call for the abolishing of examination in schools and how can that be actualized in the Nigerian education system? 

Examinations in schools have never been true tests of the learner’s full capabilities. Think of a student taking examinations at the worst emotional time of his life, probably lost his mobile phone with all information, or lost one of his parents, or has been battling with malaria all week before examinations. How do you expect such a student to do well or perform to the optimum of his intellectual ability? At best, examinations and tests are good for ranking learners. But no system should exist just to rank students because learning should never be a competition.

In education, the progress of a whole class is dependent on the slowest learner. If you, therefore, rely on examination as a yardstick to measure real learning, we shall never make the comprehensive progress needed in our educational system. That is why Singapore has done away with examination and especially ranking of performance in the primary and secondary school levels and considered doing the same at the tertiary education level.

What that country and other progressive countries, especially in Asia, are doing now is using qualitative descriptors such as a learner’s discussion participation, homework, group work, and other less competitive means to assess learning by individuals. At the secondary school level, even though learners may still be graded, including decimal points in any marking scheme is a waste of time. What is being done is to use the portfolio system which will contain a learner’s performance in group projects and the learner’s proficiency in demonstrating skills acquired in any learning situation.

The current century no more looks for marks grading or ranking of students to decide if learning has taken place. That is why our first-class graduates cannot perform as well as third-class graduates on the field where the use of our hands integrated with brainpower is required. It is what skills you can demonstrate with the mathematics or science or geography you have learned that employers now look for. In any case, the new development in the recognition of learning achievement is to use learning badges.

A learning badge (digital or physical) is a validated display of accomplishment, skill, quality, or interest that can be earned in any learning environment. Badges can represent traditional academic achievement or the acquisition of skills such as collaboration, teamwork, leadership, and other 21st century skills.

What kind of change are we expecting when exams are abolished?

Examinations encourage unhealthy competition in our learning environment and this is an inherent threat to the total development of a child. Encourage a learner to use all his or her senses, hands, and brain in an integrated fashion to demonstrate innovation and creativity.

That is why in interviews, it is no more adequate to show a certificate from a business center that you are computer literate; they put the computer before you and ask you to word process something or do some excel spreadsheet or whatever to demonstrate your proficiency and skills in the use of the computer.

We need to abolish examinations in schools and devise other means to replace entrance and final year examinations. We must borrow a lesson from the latest developments around the world in an industry where Google, Apple, and 12 other companies no longer require employees to have a university degree to be hired.

In fact, they say they will now hire accountants, historians, and non-scientific qualifications and train them hands-on in computer science and information technology. Many of the world’s most popular global companies that young ones now rush out of Nigeria to work for, don’t require a university degree, and certain jobs are more likely to be filled with non-college graduates than others, as the World Economic Forum tells us with regard to the world’s most sought-after skills for the 21st century.

As reported in many pieces of literature around the world, top business executives have begun questioning whether degrees or certificates from institutions of higher learning really prepare workers for careers, while some are starting to hire more and more non-tertiary graduates.

We must rethink everything about our examination systems and what they portent for our education system in Nigeria. How come most of our youth are excelling exceptionally well outside of Nigeria than within? It is because the environment is quite conducive and there is no stress about examinations but a lot of emphasis on what you can do with your acquired skills.

 In general, our examination system at all levels should have been goal-based, process-based, and outcomes-based but a critical analysis of the examinations we give to learners in Nigeria shows it is not.

If we do not revise our examination systems and indeed our education system by 2030, Nigeria will be left at the train station or most probably at the motor parks.

Of course, any parent would be pleased that his son or daughter has come first or second in class or level, and in a system where our prize-giving ceremonies are traditionally to recognize student’s achievement, based on what students crammed and regurgitated for examinations. And yet, they say education is what is left in your head when all you crammed for examinations have disappeared!

If exams are abolished, by what parameters would learners be assessed in Nigeria?

For now, we must throw our archaic examination system out through the window and welcome with a broad and huge bear hug the need to use proficiency, performance badges simulations, open question, one on one sessions, online forums and discussion groups, group projects and peer-based feedbacks, and scenario-based assessment and case studies to instill self-discipline in our children to enable them to master all the skills they need to succeed in life.”

The focus group (consisting of wives of old boys of St. Gregory’s College) has encouraged me to venture into tackling crucial national issues particularly drugs.

“Daily Trust” newspaper, September 25, 2021

“DRUG ABUSE: PSYCHIATRIC PATIENTS FLOCK HOSPITALS

IN CALABAR, AWKA”

“The principal psychologist at the Federal Neuro-Psychiatric Hospital, Calabar, Dr. Eyo Asuquo, has disclosed that there is an increasing number of psychiatric patients arriving at their facility in recent times.

In an interview, he attributed the reason to increasing abuse of hard drugs, such as Tramadol, Nicotine, Cannabis, Indian hemp, as well as high intake of alcohol by victims.

Findings revealed that as of press time, 93 drug-related patients were accommodated at the seven wards of the hospital.

Asuquo said, “As a result of the increase in the number of patients, an emergency ward was created to receive them.  We have seven wards that accommodate different levels of psychiatric disorders.  We have a multi-disciplinary approach to their treatment.”

He said they took time to attend to individual cases and discharge those whose conditions got better than when they were admitted.

He also said the rate of recovery differed from one patient to another, depending on the degree of disorder.

He expressed gratitude to the federal government for restoring and re-equipping the facility better than when hoodlums destroyed it during the #ENDSARS protest last October.

A member of staff of the hospital, who did not want his name mentioned, said patients were brought in from different parts of the state and other places.

“At present, the facility is functioning as it should. Patients are brought in from parts of the state and outside. Our experts attend to them every working day, except Wednesday,” he disclosed.

Another member of staff said they only received 10 percent instead of the 40 percent hazard allowance promised them by the government.

In Anambra State, the Neuropsychiatric Hospital, Nawfia, Awka South, has many patients.

Our correspondent who visited the hospital observed that as early as 8.30 am, doctors were already in their consulting offices attending to patients.

Speaking with our correspondent, a patient, who identified himself as Mike, thanked the hospital management for the care and treatment he received.

He said the journey to the facility was a long one that he did not want to share with anybody.

One of his relatives, Uche Daniel said, “We thank God for healing him. We hope he would not repeat the cause of the problem.”

One of the doctors who spoke on condition of anonymity said the hospital received an average of five patients every week.

He said most of the patients were induced by hard drugs or the popular Indian hemp, adding that the state government should pay special attention to the hospital.

On the challenges of the hospital, he said it lacked adequate funding and manpower like any other public institution in the country.”

The focus group also wants me to tackle gas flaring.

Frontpage headline “The Guardian” newspaper of September 30, 2021.

“NIGERIA, OTHERS LOSING $82 BILLION FROM GAS FLARING YEARLY”

“By flaring, rather than utilizing gas for power generation or other domestic needs, Nigeria and other nations involved in such act, could lose up to $82bn a year due to global gas flaring, says GlobalData report.

The report identified the biggest gas flares, accounting for over 87 percent of all flared gas in 2020, to include Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, the US, and Venezuela.

Though the Federal Government had pledged to end the burning of gas as a by-product of oil production by 2030, under its latest climate plan submitted to the United Nations, independent sources state that Nigeria flared an average of 11.1m3/bbl of gas last year.

With 7.83bcm in 2019, up from 7.44bcm in 2018, the World Bank ranked Nigeria as having the seventh-largest volume under the Global Gas Flaring Tracker Report (GCFR), despite having a low level of energy access.

Nigeria reduced flaring by 70 percent between 2000 and 2020, according to the International Energy Agency, as a result of tougher penalties and incentives to capture and sell the gas.

However, the Nigeria Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP) has loopholes, and penalties are low and weakly enforced. International oil majors report slow progress in eliminating wasteful flaring, analysts have claimed.

GlobalData notes that, even though technological solutions exist to avoid gas flaring, many countries persist with the activity – including developed countries such as the United States and Russia. Besides lost revenue, this is also an environmental issue, as gas flaring is one of the major contributors to CO2 emissions.

According to GlobalData’s report, ‘Gas Flaring-Thematic Research’ countries could make up to $82bn if they utilize this gas instead of flaring it.

Senior Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, Anna Belova, said: “It would do many countries, especially in Europe and Asia where natural gas prices are setting all-time records, a lot of good if oil and gas operators found the strategy to sell this gas rather than lose it – not only for the money but for meeting their CO2 targets too.”

Belova added: “The top 12 gas-flaring countries, flared almost 13 billion cubic feet of gas per day (bcfd). To put that into context, that amount of gas could easily keep the whole of Japan well supplied for a year. All of that power has simply gone to waste.”

Many countries flare gas because of lack of access to these markets, combined with the small volumes of gas produced at individual oil sites. The situation is further complicated by low domestic gas prices in most of the top flaring countries.

The value of flared gas, when priced at domestic prices in Russia or the US for example, is often less than a quarter of what the gas could command on Europe or Asia markets.

Belova said: “Reducing global gas flaring will require a multi-prong approach due to unique regional drivers that prioritize flaring over monetization of gas. Small-scale modular technologies, aimed at converting gas into liquids or chemicals, represent a logical choice for remote and distributed flaring sites.”

At a meeting hosted by KPMG in Durban, South Africa the late charismatic Nelson Mandela who was no longer the President of South Africa beamed his gaze on the old boys of King’s College and St. Gregory’s College and proceeded to deliver the following message:

“If this meeting has been useful, I am glad.  But it will be more useful to me if you go back to Nigeria and work to give young Nigerians good education.  Teach them to value hard work and sacrifice, and discourage them from crimes that are destroying your image as a good people.  Then you have to spend a lot of your resources on education.

Educate the children of the poor, so they can get out of poverty.  Poverty does not breed confidence.  Only confident people can bring changes.  The black people of the world need Nigeria to be great as a source of pride and confidence.  Nigerians love freedom and hate oppression.  Why do you do it (keep shafting yourselves)?”

By way of digression, the women accountants who are married to old boys of St. Gregory’s College deserve a medal for their sense of humor.  They have adopted the “The Nation” newspaper of October 2, 2021, as a collector’s item.

On its front page, it carried the following headline:

“WHY I DUMPED MY ACCOUNTANT HUSBAND, GOT PREGNANT FOR JOBLESS GRADUATE”

(Says he’s crap in bed; I had no choice but to look outside).

In the inside pages, the sizzling story is given plenty of space to accommodate the anguish of the dejected husband, the triumph of the elated lover, and the fury of the unrepentant wife.

Having regained its poise, the focus group of ladies proceeded to remind me:

“What lies behind you and what lies in front of you, pales in comparison to what lies inside of you.”

  • Ralph Waldo Emerson

(1803 to 1882)

What followed was a trenchant complaint via WhatsApp by one of their members who had quit accountancy to venture into farming.  Along with the distress call was the front-page headline of the “Daily Trust” newspaper of September 25, 2021.

“BANDITS IMPOSE TAX ON KATSINA FARMERS”

  • Gunmen demand labour and fertiliser for own farms
  • Food crisis may worsen as resident desert farms.
  • The worsening security situation in northwestern Nigeria has since assumed alarming proportions.  Bandits are still on a killing spree, maiming or abducting people in broad daylight, forcing many to flee the rural areas and rustling their animals.  Farmers in some of the areas are also compelled to pay taxes to access their farms.  Some say by this, the bandits seem to be running a parallel government in some areas.  An investigation by Daily Trust in Danmusa, Batsari, Dandume and Dutsin-Ma local government areas in Katsina State revealed that people in villages close to forests are either forced to pay taxes to the bandits not to be harmed and to access their farms or work on the bandits’ farms and serve as their informants.
  • Despite taxing us, we’re not spared from their atrocities; they’d always come to your farm and seize your phone, money or motorbike, even shoes – anything valuable.  For nearly three weeks, I couldn’t go to my farm out of fear of the unknown.”

In a country where many are literarily voting with their feet, “The Guardian” newspaper delivered a bombshell with its front-page report on September 25, 2021.

Bashorun J.K. Randle is a former
President of the Institute of the Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN)
and former Chairman of KPMG Nigeria and Africa Region.
He is currently the Chairman, JK Randle Professional Services

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Dr Akintoye Akindele
Economy

Value before Remittance

by Akintoye Akindele
written by Akintoye Akindele 10mins read

Official data available estimates about 146 million Africans living abroad. With the population of Africa estimated at around 1.2 billion people, this implies about 12% of us live outside of the continent. These 12% remitted circa US$78 billion back to Africa in 2020. Quick arithmetic shows that the remittance per capita is about $534. The per capita remittance of Nigerians is $988 from the estimated 17 million Nigerians living abroad. When we compare these per capita numbers to that of the Lebanese community @ $664 (of the estimated 17 million Lebanese, about 11 million live in diaspora) and the Jewish community of $565 from the US (5.7 million Jews live in the US alone when compared to the population of Israel of 6.7million people), versus GDP per capita of Africa at $2,569; Nigeria at $2,097; Lebanon at $4,891 and Israel at $43,610. It shows a very clear role for the African diaspora beyond remittances. Our research shows that these other diaspora communities do a lot more than remit money back home. They are involved in skills development & knowledge transfer, collaborative research & innovation, investment & trade & product exchange. Africa needs her people who live abroad to do much more than remittances.  From our IT professionals (there are only 690,000 software developers in Africa from her compared to 628,000 in California alone) to doctors, scientists and other professionals, the possibilities that can be unlocked are endless. 

Changing the African narrative requires everyone to get involved. Home or abroad. Our dignity and future depend on all of us being nation builders. There is little government can do. People build their countries.  Go through history and let’s not confuse Chinese growth over the last 4 decades as a government-centric one alone. Our governments are a reflection of who we are. The African opportunity is the biggest catch-up story in history. We have more foreigners investing in our start-ups, companies, and innovation than us Africans. Let’s get the money we have put under our bedsheets and bank accounts working.  Inflation and devaluation risks of the money in bank accounts or at home are not better than business risks of an investment in start-ups. Data shows that while 70% of start-ups fail, the 30% that succeed compensate for the ones that fail and deliver real returns which exceed the yield on savings which is often exposed to inflation and devaluation. I am not asking us not to save; informed and enlightened investment in start-ups, equities, and innovation are also savings. Stock gambling isn’t an investment. Get advice where and when in doubt. The real return on long-term positions in equity (public and private) outperforms pure savings. 
Africans let us collaborate more, invest in each other, share knowledge, engender skills transfer and have a more positive mindset about ourselves and our future.  Our children deserve our best effort. Remember the future starts today. Start creating the future you want to live in.

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Tope Fasua
Business & Finance

THE NAIRA AND THE REIGN OF ZOMBIE ECONOMICS IN NIGERIA

by Tope Fasua
written by Tope Fasua 10mins read

I reviewed a 10-years graph of the interaction between Naira and USD and found that in the years under President Jonathan when we complained to high heavens, Naira stabilized at around N150 to the dollar for four solid years until it encountered some volatility as Nigeria prepared for the 2015 elections, thereby closing around N199. I checked on another graph with longer tenure (1957 – 2021) and saw how since President Babangida started devaluing in 1986, there has been an endless fall, from N3 to the US Dollar, to around N12 in 1993, and then to about N22. The N22 regime for official exchange rate was maintained until 1999 when Naira was devalued sharply to about N90 and then we saw a steady fall to about N140. Under President Umaru Yar’Adua in 2007/2008, the Naira firmed up for the first time ever since the devaluation game started, to N120 but we lost track in 2009/10 and devalued to around N149. It was this intricate balance that the Jonathan government maintained until 2014.

Since the Buhari government came in, and in spite of his consistent swearing never to devalue the currency, it turns out that this is a major policy – most prominent plank – of the administration. In order words, devaluation is something this administration knows how to do if nothing else.  The naira has seen serious volatility like never before, crashing from N199 to N306 in 2016, N360 in 2017, N390 in 2020, and N414 in 2021. Since the statement of the Vice President to the extent that the Naira is yet to find its value and that is the reason why investors are not coming, official rates have further crashed to N422, with every sense that a lot more is coming.  This is a review of official markets, where government people get their fill of foreign exchange at the expense of taxpayers. The ‘black market’, which is mostly accessible to ordinary folks, has of course gone haywire, crashing from around N220 in 2015, to N580 today.

I note that in May 2016, as Buhari kept grunting about not taking IMF advice on devaluing the Naira, Osinbajo moved against that position and stated that the CBN had to change its policies, thus giving a clue of imminent devaluation, or rather, sealing the fate of the Naira as at then. See https://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2016/05/nigeria-braces-for-new-round-of-fuel-shortages. I took the note back then that the man may either have some ultra-right economists in his team or is fully sold on IMF/World Bank narratives, some of which they had walked back in the past. But like Professor Quiggin of Queensland University, Australia said, some dead economic ideas still prowl, especially in benighted countries like Nigeria, wreaking havoc. They are dead ideas but are still alive. Welcome to Zombie Economics.

Fast-forward to the cryptocurrency controversy, when the CBN had to remind banks of a 2017 memo in which they were cautioned about speculating on that pseudo asset or offering their platforms to traders and exchanges, Osinbajo stepped up powerfully to berate the Central Bank (again), when he said that cryptocurrencies should be regulated rather than banned. On that occasion, he had very stern words for CBN, that could have damaged the morale of those working there. They were put out as being incompetent and unpatriotic. The crypto market was almost at its peak (February 26, 2021) but would later reach a nadir in April before entering a cataclysmic decline in May, from which it is yet to fully recover. Let us take a pause and consider how crypto markets have been so volatile. We learned that Nigeria was the country with the second-highest trading volumes in the world – in spite of our low per capita income. It could only mean that corrupt folks were using cryptos to disguise their loot, and cryptocurrencies were enabling a lot of criminal activities for which a section of our young people are popular. That instrument is certainly not one that a sovereign would jump into at the deep end. Thankfully, the Central Bank of Nigeria did not buckle under the staccato from the VP or turn over our financial system to be sacrificed on the altar of cryptocurrencies. Perhaps we would have been in a different kind of trouble today.

The point here is that whatever policy or ideology anyone subscribes to, it is important to stand back and survey the damage – or the achievements, if any, from time to time. With this one-way devaluation we have embarked upon since 1986, which is now on steroids under this very government, I cannot see any achievements that devaluation has brought upon us, only pains. It is not enough to subscribe to these policies, just to look like you are intelligent to the IMF or World Bank, who themselves have apologized in the past for some of these self-same policies. Whereas the IMF/World Bank almost considers it a policy plank for countries like Nigeria to devalue currencies especially when we want to borrow from them, as they say, devaluation enables our export volumes and receipts to grow, thereby helping us shrink trade deficits and become more self-sustaining, they know that in reality, the opposite is the case. The same bodies thus advise that devaluation will not solve economic problems, when addressing serious nations with good exports to push, like China. See a 2019 statement from IMF to this effect. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/imf-warns-currency-devaluations-will-not-fix-economic-problems.html.

Fundamental damage has been done to this economy and polity by this government, in the last 7 odd years. We have never been more divided because we are stuck with a taciturn leader whom someone said is not even interested in reconciling members of his own family, much less uniting the whole of Nigeria. Separatist groups have taken on a life of their own, while criminals have driven law-abiding citizens to the fringes. Kidnapping for ransom is the new game that pays, and nowhere in the country is safe. We still argue about the open grazing of cows while marauders from the west and north Africa make incursions into our northern villages and even down south, killing and maiming, and the president is hardwired to defend his Fulani kin from wherever they may come. Businesses have collapsed, and the unemployment rate is at an all-time high, and in all this, our Vice President has called for even more devaluation, with the Naira further tumbling and life getting tougher for the masses. Meanwhile, the same story has been used over and over again, since 1986 when we commenced this journey of naira devaluation. Indeed when rich men who have already converted their loot into US Dollars call for devaluation, what they are really saying is that those who depend on the naira to survive, and have no holdings of US Dollars, should suffer more. We should also note that the poor folks in Nigeria are taking their own revenge against this chicanery from their leaders. A lot of the crime takes place when the poor try to strike back at a society that takes them for granted. For it is itself a crime, having converted your wealth to foreign currency, to openly call for devaluation. It is simply insider trading.

I wish to point direct attention at the following issues with regard to this foreign exchange matter. I am sad that a mere nonentity like me labors daily to teach, to educate, to try and save our country from painful cataclysm, while people we are paying to do just that, work at cross purposes:

  1. Professor Ricardo Hausmann and colleagues at Harvard developed the concept of economic complexity. The truth is that what holds nations down are not sophisticated issues like their exchange rates, but the intrinsic and extrinsic value of what they produce. If there was ever one policy that could assist Nigeria, it is this idea of economic complexity. We should add value to what we produce and be less dependent in everything on other nations. Economic complexity defines the knowledge content or quotient of goods and services produced in a country. Unfortunately, under Buhari, Nigeria has dropped to the last nation out of 133 surveyed on the Economic Complexity Index (ECI). We are 133rd in 133 countries and only ever went to the 132nd position in 2012. This is what Osinbajo should worry about.  The report says that Nigeria’s economy is the MOST PRIMITIVE in the world, behind countries like Guinea, Ghana, Papua New Guinea, and what have you. This is the real touchpoint. Matched with the fact that we have very sophisticated tastes, this is where we ruin ourselves. It is a disservice to look at this as a foreign exchange issue.
  2. We have seen enough of absurdities already in this country and it takes considerable effort not to sound personal on these issues with our leaders. All of them, bar none, spend dollars. They have therefore, for one reason or the other, displayed lack of confidence in the naira. Everything falls to pieces once this vote-of-no-confidence is cast by the same people in whom we have entrusted the nation. You will never see British leaders holding dollar in Britain, or Euro? You will never catch any European leader holding Pounds, or Dollars. But Nigerian leaders – from the president to his vice, to National Assembly members, to governors and even councilors, take pride in spending dollars like it is an achievement. I challenge them to disprove me. They load dollars around in their car booths. I urged the CBN to diversify the issuance of PTA away from the US Dollar as a way of breaking that market and even encouraging a closure of the gap between official and parallel fx markets. They have not done anything like that. However, our politicians and their children spend dollars and some never touch the Naira. The VP can look into this.
  3. Nigerian government needs to reorder priorities. I wonder whether we can save ourselves at this stage. In the 2022 budget, the president has increased his international travel budget to N1.5 billion. The National Assembly is digging in to collect their own. Among the circle of the privilege, it’s as if the country is blooming in every regard. All politicians are maxing out and leaning on the system with all their weight. Nobody can caution anybody. Nigeria will still spend on estacodes, and pilgrimages, presidential fleet, medical tourism for the big men, and buy exotic cars from abroad for them. The fact that corruption still thrives, will put pressure on the Naira as corruption payments are made in cash, preferably in US Dollars. Is there anything that can be seriously done about corruption? Or have we lost the war? If the VP can help tangibly in this area, that will be great. The focus on Naira rates is too narrow.
  4. I have humbly put out the little I know out there. But painfully, these ideas have been deliberately ignored. On the matter of foreign exchange, I repeat that we need to consider the Marshall-Lerner conditions that says devaluation will not help a country without exports that are price elastic. Nigeria almost has no exports apart from crude oil, which is priced in US Dollar already. Now, whereas the Naira cannot hope to compete with global currencies, the only option we have is to tightly manage the currency and there is nothing wrong at all, in the demand management strategies of the CBN. No one should expect that we open the tap and allow anyone make away with any amount of dollars at the expense of our lean reserves in the name of buying whatever they want from abroad. No way. And apart from the Marshall-Lerner conditions, I have also tried to educate folks about the Three Generations of Currency Crisis, and a lot of the lessons around that is that we should mind our statements around the currency. The world is watching our lips. If, despite astute, prudent and pragmatic management, the naira loses value, all well and good, but we must never use our statements to encourage further free fall. Even our ancestors knew this when they said it is what you call your thing that the world will call it. If we say “The Naira is overvalued, is unrealistic, should be worth a lot less than it is worth” etc, the smart boys in financial markets will move in and have the Naira for lunch. The VP’s statement is therefore most-unfortunate.
  5. The VP also mentioned that Nigeria is not getting dollars in anymore and that this is because investors know that the Naira is overvalued. This is also another unfair and unbalanced statement, which panders to right-wing narratives. It is majorly because of insecurity that we are not getting dollars. When I visited East Africa in 2013/14, I saw many foreigners on their streets. Tourism thrives. Ghana is also a peaceful nation, and the world is there, spending. Even Nigerians take millions of dollars into the Ghanaian economy through purchase of properties and tourism. The VP’s statement discounts the fact that we need to make this country safe and try to recover some of our lost dignity as a people. This country is at war, and as Farooq Kperogi once wrote, only 3 types of investors will come here; the criminally minded, the absolutely ignorant, and the ones who enjoy sadomasochism – the financial kind. The statement also painfully plays into a sad Nigerian reality – that having given up on just organizing this country to be normal and livable, all our successive governments have been doing is looking for hot money (Foreign Portfolio Investors), to help paper over the issues – and also to earn commission from – while those guys further make mincemeat of our economy. Indeed, insecurity is currently priced into our Naira. I mean that if we were a secure, patriotic nation, who were united and moving on in peace and love, the Naira will be a lot firmer even if we were forced to devalue.  There is therefore a negative perception premium built into the value of the naira today – official and parallel rates.
  6. Misstatements around the Naira also have knock-on effects. Apart from the obvious one which is an immediate fall in the value of the Naira, inflation also spikes. Sellers of food in the market, and transporters, are listening to the news and so when government officials promise that more devaluation is coming, they jump right ahead and start to increase prices. I wish people like the CBN Governor, VP, Minister of Finance and other top officials will understand that all their interventions should be behind closed doors. Nigerians are converting more of the little they have into dollars and wait for the naira to crash some more as promised by the VP. This means less money available for lending, higher inflation and companies that have barely hung on to dear life finally throw in the towel and send their employees packing. Is this what we want?
  7. Finally, the VP excoriated the CBN on its interventions in the fiscal space. It is easy to do that now, but the CBN cannot sit on its hand and not deploy extra-monetary policies when a nation is in dire straits. Since the necessary painful fiscal adjustments have not been made and may never be made because the main beneficiaries are also the people who can make the change, then the monetary authorities will not only do their jobs but move into overdrive. This is something that has been noticed everywhere in then world. The COVID-19 crisis is a good case in point. Monetary – not fiscal – authorities have had to conjure cash out of thin air to distribute to people just to survive. Yes, monetary authorities can communicate better with fiscal ones, but in the heat of the moment, everyone who can work must keep working. “No time to check time”, as our people say on the streets. In spite of the many flaws of the CBN, if that institution was less dynamic and hadn’t moved when it did, well perhaps we could have called it curtains on project Nigeria by now. But the CBN must expect to be blamed, while it tightens its processes in every way.

ZOMBIE ECONOMIC IDEAS

Let me just run through a few of them quickly, and please note, dear readers, that these ideas still prowl all over Nigeria even though they are long since dead. Our economic policymakers strongly believe in them, and this is because they mostly do not develop themselves in the field or are too doctrinaire and dogmatic to interrogate their thoughts and belief around economics, which – like science and technology – keeps evolving very very rapidly and is not what it used to be 20 years ago. Also, we all know that in our academia, they are stuck with very old texts, which they regurgitate to poor students, year in, year out. Academic circles are almost impossible to barge into and change because a lot of their ideas are dated and they don’t want any disruptors to upset the apple cart. So, we have a huge problem on our hands.

The first zombie idea is the concept of some ‘invisible hand’ which comes and allocates resources. It is ‘invisible’, chiefly because it doesn’t exist. The ideas of Adam Smith have been challenged even though we still revere him in the circle of Economists. But economists have found out that only clumsy governments wait for the invisible hand to properly allocate resources. You have to watch and apply science.  Trickle-down economics is another zombie idea. In reality, and in recent times, economists have realized that oftentimes, wealth trickles up and not down. Or wealth created at the top simply remains there more and more because human beings have fashioned out larger receptacles at the top. This is more so as many rich people now don’t need as many staff as before, and technology has led to the robotization of many factories – even to achieve better efficiency. What is more? For the very rich, their tastes are externalized and so, money TRICKLES, oozes, or gushes OUT to foreign countries in pursuit of foreign goods, certainly not down.  What about market forces and equilibrium? The demand and supply interplay is often a myth. It is a good depiction of an idyllic scenario but far from reality. There is nothing like an equilibrium anywhere except perhaps in small, monopolistic, monopsonistic, oligopolistic, or oligopsonistic markets where one or few players exist at least on one side of the divide.

But in reality, markets are often polyploids, meaning that plenty of people buy and sell for whatever reasons and in many locations. You will never wake up one day and know the equilibrium price of garri. The idea of market forces determining price is also weak, as there exists a battery of other factors that intervene in determination of prices. The Efficient Market Hypothesis – a rather sexy but totally unrealistic idea propounded by Eugene Fama of the Chicago School – has been proven to be toxic, and misled people like Alan Greenspan, who ended up being shamed for pushing the idea that markets would regulate themselves. Fama hides away somewhere in the halls of the University of Chicago today. Meanwhile, the trio of A. Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz, and George Akerlof snagged the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics for proving that markets are indeed eternally imperfect because of asymmetry of information – some people will always have a bit more information than others, and therein lies their edge.

Another dead idea is that put forward by David Ricardo in 1820, which is called Comparative or Competitive Advantage. It says if you are a primary product, farming nation, just stick to it. Or just keep selling your crude oil. In reality, you will never develop selling primary products in a world that is increasingly sophisticated. Smart nations find every means to produce things themselves and add value and try to depend less on others. We have been sold a dud in Nigeria and are not helping ourselves. Therefore, we are officially the most unsophisticated economy in the world according to Ricardo Hausmann’s Economic Complexity Index. I should add that the idea that our currency is not realistic is another dead idea as it ignores the more nuanced analysis around a currency. We have to study the history of currencies to determine what to do. We will also do well to separate ourselves from other weak African economies whose currencies have totally lost value.  Also, the continuous, endless pursuit of foreign investments – direct and portfolio – is another anachronistic economic idea fit only for the colonial era. I will write more on these zombie economic ideas someday.

I close, by repeating some questions I asked a friend on this currency matter when he insisted that the value of the Naira is unrealistic. I asked: what is realistic oga? Naira at 1 to 1 to the US Dollar was not realistic. We moved it to N4 to 1 dollar, you people said it was still not realistic. Then they moved it to N12 to $1. Still, you said it was not realistic. Then we tried N22 to $1. Still, you people (liberal economists) said it was not realistic. Then we moved it to N50 to $1. Still not realistic, yeah. Then N80 to $1. Not realistic still? What about when Naira became N99 to 1? You still complained it was not realistic. Under Soludo it was N120 to $1. Still, you said it was not realistic. Then they moved it to N140 to $1. Not realistic you said. What about N155 to $1. No, not realistic. N199 to $1?  Not realistic. N306 to $1? Not realistic you insisted. How about N360 to $1. You dismissed the Naira still as not realistic. We moved to N390 to $1. Not realistic, you screamed. How about N414 to $1. Not realistic you maintained. Now, the Naira is at N422 to $1 officially and running ahead in the black market which will always be a step ahead. Bros. it is you people that are not realistic.

The feeling with the naira is one of falling into a bottomless pit. As the naira is being devalued, what we have seen is that the people are being devalued.  This is because our people depend on many essentials of modern life which are imported, not produced locally. When devaluation happens, children and adults suffer.  Devaluation works where you bite the bullet and close your economy tactically to boost local production, not when you remain open and accede to liberal ideas of allowing everything into your country. If you remain open, it will be a case of ignoring a tsunami that sweeps away everything you have. To close the economy is equally tough but is only logical if you sincerely wish to devalue the currency to reposition your economy. I fear though, that we may have passed the window where we could devalue the naira to gain traction in the economy. Why? Perception has been grossly and totally mismanaged. Nigerians now feel as hopeless about their country as they are about their currency. And this is due to incompetence and disobedience. And corruption. And selfishness. In 2016 when Buhari woke up one day and asked the CBN not to sell forex for students in foreign schools while his own children were there being sponsored by the state, and when he went abroad to treat his illness at our expense while shunning those who need such treatment, that act saw the value of the naira dive as people scrambled in the black market to fulfill their foreign currency needs. That was not about market forces, but incompetence, laziness, and some would say meanness. If the Naira will continue to fall in the wake of Osinbajo’s statement, that would also be because his advisers have whispered sweet nothings in his ears from the tombs of zombie economics.

We just have to stop hurting ourselves in this country.

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