Daily Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) Rates (₦/Us$)
Moving Average = 1,467.8408 (NFEM)
Previous Average = 1,478.8252
Change = +0.7428%
Forex Analysis
The naira continues its bull run for the 6th week in a row, with this week’s moving average inching up by roughly 0.75%. The naira clearly is still feeling the positive effects of CBN’s firm stance on monetary policy. That stance has helped stabilize inflation and attract foreign portfolio inflows. The CBN’S interventions in the official foreign exchange market have also helped matters. These interventions include supplying dollars to the banks and BDC operators, which helped ease demand pressures and narrow the gap between official and parallel market rates. Foreign reserves continue to rise, standing at about $42.74 billion as at Oct 7th. That must be reassuring to foreign investors. The growing role of fintech platforms in FX transactions has also helped to improve transparency and reduce speculative demand. The effect of this has been less volatility in the naira.
Daily Crude Oil Prices
Moving Average = $65.41
Previous Average = $67.11
Change = -2.5332%
Crude Oil Analysis
The Brent crude moving average fell for the 2nd week in a row, this time falling by a whopping 2.5%. We had mentioned in the past two weeks the August reports issued by both OPEC and IEA that global demand was softening. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has added to the gloom by projecting that Brent crude could dip below $60/barrel by Q4 2025 and potentially approach $50 in 2026. The situation has not been helped by a change in pricing strategies by Saudi Arabia and other key players, who recently decided to prioritize market share over price stability (perhaps in anticipation of a new regime of low prices). The shift contributed to the downward momentum. Oil traders also seem to be bracing for the next OPEC+ meeting, slated for November 2nd, where the group was expected to consider authorizing another production hike. This anticipation of increased output seems to have added to the bearish sentiment.
NGX Top 10 Gainers for the week closing 9th Sept 2025
NGX Top 10 Losers for the week closing 9th Sept 2025
Stock Market Index Activity for the week closing 9th Sept 2025
Stock Market Index Analysis
Fifty-one (51) equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than fifty-three (53) equities in the previous week. Forty-one (41) equities depreciated in price, lower than forty-three (43) equities in the previous week, while fifty-five (55) equities remained unchanged, higher than fifty-one (51) recorded in the previous week.
Looks like the NGX experienced a moderately cautious trading week between Oct 3 and Oct 10, suggesting a narrowing of market breadth, with fewer price movements overall and a slight uptick in investor indecision or wait-and-see sentiment.
The decline in both gainers and losers indicates reduced volatility and a more sideways market, where investors are holding positions rather than actively buying or selling, while the increase in unchanged equities reflects a pause in momentum. The Independence day holiday might have had something to do with this, as such holidays typically dampen volume and price movement, as well as shorten the trading week. Profit-taking by investors, after a strong rally in energy and consumer stocks, might also be at play here. The act of locking in gains might have had a cooling effect. Sector rotation, might also be causing mixed price reactions, as investors shift from high performing sectors to more undervalued stocks.
Daily Bitcoin Prices
Moving Average = $122,935.21
Previous Average = $117,976.82
Change = +4.2029%
Bitcoin Analysis
Bitcoin posted a whopping gain of 4.2%. This came on the back of a 3.6% gain last week. We did point out last week that October is historically a good month for bitcoin, leading to the nickname “Uptober”. It clearly seems to be living up to its nickname. There several reasons for October historically being such a good month. They including the fact that:
- Historically, Q4 tends to be bullish for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
- September is typically a weak month for Bitcoin, often ending in losses. October frequently sees a rebound, in anticipation of a stronger Q4.
- Institutions often adjust portfolios in Q4 for performance reporting and tax planning. This can lead to increased inflows into high-performing or high-potential assets like Bitcoin. We saw some of this last week.
- With the pattern so well-known now, the “Uptober” narrative has become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
For the week covered, the jump was the result of massive Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) inflows into the market, with $1.6 billion entering the market in just three days. Bitcoin also broke through key resistance levels, triggering algorithmic and retail buying. This technical momentum added fuel to the rally. Furthermore, a softer U.S. dollar and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates improved market sentiment concerning risk, benefiting crypto assets.
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