Barnaby & Edgar Weekly Macroeconomic ReportDAILY NIGERIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (NFEM) RATES (₦/US$)
Moving Average = 1373.7410 (NFEM)
Previous Average = 1350.9033
Change = -1.6906%
Forex Analysis
Our moving average fell for the 2nd week in a row, this time by about 1.7%. The naira weakened in both the official and parallel markets, despite a $200 million cash injection spread over Feb 24th and 25th. Despite coupon payments and OMO maturities boosting naira liquidity, dollar inflows remained thin. Rising Brent crude prices (above $80/bbl by Mar 4) suggested potential future FX inflows, but immediate supply constraints kept the naira under pressure.
Daily Crude Oil Prices
Moving Average = $77.58
Previous Average = $68.81
Change = 12.7452%
Crude Oil Analysis
Our Brent crude moving average surged by about 12.75% this week. This sharp rise was driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, OPEC+ supply discipline, and speculative momentum once prices broke through the $73 resistance level.
The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury) raised fears of supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. As a result, traders priced in a significant risk premium, lifting Brent above $80.
Further inducing price rises was the fact that OPEC+ maintained strict production quotas, limiting output despite strong demand. This supply restraint amplified the upward move once geopolitical risks emerged. Demand for crude also remained strong in China and India.
NGX Top 10 Gainers for the week closing 6th Mar 2026
NGX Top 10 Losers for the week closing 6th Mar 2026
Stock Market Index Activity for the week closing 6th Mar 2026
Stock Market Index Analysis
Forty-four (44) equities appreciated in price during the week, higher than thirty-two (32) equities in the previous week. Fifty-eight (58) equities depreciated in price, lower than sixty-nine (69) equities in the previous week, while forty-six (46) equities remained unchanged, lower than forty-seven (47) recorded in the previous week.
This week the market reflected a mixed but slightly positive sentiment. The market showed improved breadth compared to last week, thus signaling a modest rebound in investor sentiment.
Oil & energy stocks (Oando, Eterna, Aradel) benefited from Brent crude’s surge above $82/bbl. Financials and insurance firms (Custodian, Sovereign Trust, Insurance PLC) saw renewed investor interest, possibly linked to expectations of stronger earnings. NGX itself gained, reflecting confidence in the exchange’s performance.
Consumer goods (Dangote Sugar, McNichols) faced selling pressure amid inflationary concerns. Financials (Jaiz Bank, Africa Prudential, AXA Mansard) saw profit‑taking after prior gains. Mining and industrials (Multiverse, Mecure, Omatek) reflected volatility in commodity‑linked plays.
Overall, the market was balanced but slightly bullish, supported by liquidity and oil‑driven optimism.
Fixed-Income Analysis
The Fixed-Income market this week was marked by steady bond yields, slightly higher NTB rates, and elevated OMO yields as the CBN balanced liquidity management with FX market pressures.
The CBN conducted Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB) auctions during the week, with strong subscription levels across short‑tenor bills. Marginal rates rose slightly, reflecting investor demand for higher returns amid naira weakness.
In the bond market, there was no major new bond issuance in this week, but secondary trading remained active. Long‑tenor bonds (10–20 years) traded steady around 18–19%, while mid‑tenor bonds saw mild upward pressure. Pension funds and domestic institutions remained the dominant buyers, preferring longer‑dated securities for yield stability.
The CBN issued OMO bills to mop up excess liquidity from coupon payments and NTB maturities. OMO yields stayed elevated (20–22%) to attract foreign portfolio investors and stabilize naira liquidity. This helped to sterilize naira inflows but did not fully offset FX market pressures.
The CBN floated new CBN bills during the week to sterilize excess naira liquidity from coupon payments and NTB maturities. Rates remained elevated in the 21–23% range, broadly in line with OMO bills, as the Bank sought to attract foreign portfolio investors and discourage speculative naira demand. Domestic banks and institutional investors subscribed actively, given the high yields and short tenors (often 90–180 days).
Daily Bitcoin Prices
Moving Average = $68,766
Previous Average = $67,115.52
Change = +2.4592%
Bitcoin Analysis
Our bitcoin moving average rose by about 2.5% this week. Bitcoin also benefited from the escalating geopolitical tensions. It acted as a hedge asset, alongside gold, attracting safe‑haven flows. Bitcoin also benefited from Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) inflows. U.S. equity market volatility also encouraged diversification into crypto. No major negative regulatory headlines emerged, allowing sentiment to remain constructive.
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