DAILY NIGERIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (NFEM) RATES (₦/US$)
Moving Average = 1,329.3459
Previous Average = 1,329.5839
Change = +0.0179%
Forex Analysis
Our Naira to Dollar moving average rose by a slight 0.018% this week. Relative calm in the official market was directly sustained by the CBN’s continued strategic forex supply infusions to authorized dealers. Backing this intervention capacity, Nigeria’s external foreign reserves remained robust at roughly $54.8 billion, preventing sharp intraday volatility or panic buying.
The spread between the official and parallel rates notably converged to ₦45–₦60. This structural convergence is a direct consequence of normalized diaspora remittances balancing out seasonal importer demand from travelers and corporate entities entering Q4.
Daily Crude Oil Prices
Moving Average = $103.60
Previous Average = $103.40
Change = +0.1934%
Crude Oil Analysis
Our Brent Crude moving average rose by about just 0.19%, reflecting a week where intense geopolitical escalations were balanced out by unexpected supply reliefs and policy interventions.
Prices surged past $106 early in the week as US President Donald Trump officially rejected a conditional proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. The week ended with a sharp correction, as European governments began debating a French proposal to release strategic oil reserves to blunt soaring fuel costs and diesel shortages.
Real-time shipping data revealed that Middle Eastern crude oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz actually accelerated in the second half of September, returning to roughly 25% of pre-war capacity. Tanker loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu also resumed.
NGX Top 10 Gainers for the week closing 2nd Oct 2026
NGX Top 10 Losers for the week closing 2nd Oct 2026
Stock Market Index Activity for the week closing 2nd Oct 2026
Stock Market Index Analysis
Forty-four (44) equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than sixty-one (61) equities in the previous week. Thirty-seven (37) equities depreciated in price, higher than thirty-two (32) equities in the previous week, while sixty-five (65) equities remained unchanged, higher than sixty-three (63) recorded in the previous week.
Despite a monumental macroeconomic shift on the 22nd of September, specifically, CBN’s aggressive 350-basis-point policy rate slash down to 23.00% – the equity market did not experience a uniform breakout. Instead, institutional investors actively rebalanced their portfolios, resulting in a negative market breadth split.
The key dynamics explaining the market activity during the week include:
Institutional Rotation to Fixed Income: – This was the primary reason for the deceleration in equity gainers as there was a massive institutional cash migration into the domestic debt market. Asset managers and Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) prioritized locking in multi-trillion Naira positions in long-dated Treasury Bills and OMO instruments before primary auction spot yields could compress further.
Defensive Consolidation & Flat Breadth: – Institutional players largely paused their positioning in mid-to-high cap industrial stocks to monitor how corporate earnings would respond to the new interest rate regime, choosing safety ahead of the opening of the Q3 corporate reporting cycle.
Speculative Play in Small and Mid-Caps: – With heavy institutional capital temporarily sidelined, retail and speculative traders drove momentum in lower-priced, high-beta consumer and niche sectors, thus causing small and speculative mid-caps to dominate the top gainers chart.
Below is a sector by sector breakdown of performance for the week September 25 to October 2
Fixed-Income Analysis
The fixed-income market in Nigeria experienced aggressive, bullish trading activity this week. This momentum was catalyzed by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) sudden, larger-than-expected 350-basis-point reduction of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 23.00%. Fearing that yields would drop further, investors rushed into government debt securities to lock in the prevailing high interest rates.
In Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs), there were no new auctions this week. Due to heavy institutional buying, secondary market average benchmark yields crashed by 90 basis points, with standard treasury bill tenors falling below 18%, marking the lowest yield environment recorded in 2026. Turnover was fundamentally accelerated by ₦3.63 trillion in unmet bids that spilled over directly from the previous week’s primary market auction, with only ₦1.67 trillion worth of trades actually finding matching sellers and execute on the FMDQ exchange.
In Federal Government Bonds, following the mid-September bond auction where the Debt Management Office (DMO) raised ₦748.64 billion at a lower marginal rate of 16.79% on the 10-year paper, activity transitioned into a stable holding pattern. Secondary market turnover for the week was ₦1.78 trillion, with yields floating within a 15.20% to 15.97% band depending on the specific duration bucket.
In OMO Bills, there was an auction on the 29th of September. The relevant details are in the table below:
The newly introduced 266-day tenor generated the overwhelming majority of institutional demand, gathering Over ₦4.54 trillion in individual bids. While the headline advertisement targeted a ₦2.5 trillion liquidity withdrawal, the apex bank took advantage of massive market liquidity to over-allot, pulling a total of ₦4.686 trillion out of the banking ecosystem to curb money supply inflation.
Daily Bitcoin Prices
Moving Average = $84,094.34
Previous Average = $84,908.72
Change = -0.9591%
Bitcoin Analysis
Our Bitcoin moving average fell by about 0.96% this week, reflecting a period of consolidation and macro indecision, capped off by a late-week breakout. A strengthening U.S. dollar early in the week acted as a temporary ceiling, capping Bitcoin’s upside momentum. Then, a late-week cooling in U.S. Treasury yields acted as a relief valve, driving capital back into risk assets. The late-week breakout was further helped by Citigroup, which raised its Bitcoin price forecast to $113,000, shifting institutional sentiment from cautious to highly bullish.
Professional corporate finance and consulting services.
barnabyandedgar.com/
