Uncategorized

There is nothing left to add to the tax bracket, and we have a substantial mandate to generate revenue.

What we now have settled down to is a government that has shown an extreme bias for revenue generation rather than wealth creation

When you pursue a significant interest in generating revenues without addressing the requisite blocking of loopholes, and fail to ensure that the funds are effectively plugged into wealth creation, then we have a scenario where we seem to be pouring water into a basket.

Customs at the ports are recording bumper collections, FIRS is also recording huge receipts, diaspora inflow is quadrupling, and exports are increasing as a percentage of GDP. We should be focusing on the fiscal side of things if the government truly knows what it is doing.

With this increased revenue profile, we are still relying on foreign credit for even recurrent expenditure, simply cos the Government has no political will to curb its spending, truly block leakages, reduce the cost of governance and really fight corruption, which is a massive leak of resources.

Granted, the indices are stabilising, inflation is dropping, the Naira is gaining strength, and infrastructure development, with projects like the Lagos-Calabar and Dangote Refinery, to mention a few, is showing positive reflections on the Government, we are still far from Uhuru, and this is why the Government must continue to ensure that the tap for revenue generation continues to flow

Here comes the role of the tax reformer – I continue to forget his name

His mandate is straightforward: ensure efficient collections, widen the taxpaying bracket, and smooth out the disproportionate tax payment regime between the rich and the vast majority of the population.

I hear he has submitted a good paper, which may have found its way into Law, and is expected to be implemented from next year

In his routine enlightenment campaign, he was however quoted to have said that the new tax regime would be so robust that even sex workers would be taxed, and this made a large number of watchers laugh in derision.

This is not the first time the government has been hovering around sex in their desperation to tap into the honeywell.

Just like drunken sailors, governments have been looking at the sex industry in lust

It was the NBS that first announced that it would use it as a basis for its calculations

They were laughed into their caves, and now the tax Czar has come again

To be fair to them, the sex industry generates trillions annually, and no sane hungry government would turn its eyes, especially with the lascivious need for funds by them

From its various subsectors – prostitution, porn, sex toys, etc, the sex industry is Nigeria’s highest employer of labour with the widest participants pulled from all demographics and subclasses

The industry is directly responsible for at least 20% growth in hospitality, healthcare, tourism, infrastructure, media and fashion, amongst others

Contraceptives and other sexual health subsectors of the healthcare industry are valued in billions, throwing up another super subsector – aesthetic surgery

We now spend billions on facial and body-altering surgery.

The sex industry is also the underlying driver of the multi-trillion Naira Detty December, since we all end up in bed at the end of every day of the month

So now the Government wants to tax it all. I must confess that I have not seen the new tax laws or even will understand them when I eventually see them, but I must state very succinctly that this attempt, like its predecessor, will fall by the wayside

Granted, this is happening in other countries, but our system is different

Our industry is fluid, as sex workers cannot only be found on the streets; they are in our homes, offices, churches, mosques, schools, and even the Presidency.

How, then, do you tax a worker who will not identify herself as a worker, even though she or he is a market leader?

Secondly, which customer would agree to be identified and have their name on a receipt for tax purposes, since these customers, like the purveyors, are all over in society, including all those places mentioned

So if the sex worker can’t keep a record of ‘sales’, how do we now access her for tax purposes

Like I have said earlier, I do not understand the parameters or how the Government wants to go about it, but let me quickly add-

Most of the associated inputs in the sex industry have already been taxed and put under VAT

From the hotels, the sex toys, the lubricant, clothes, cars, drugs, almost everything, and it will amount to double taxation to even attempt it

I think maybe they want to now tax the Vagina and license it like we do cars

Yes, that’s possible. We send the vaginas for assessment, like we do MOT for our cars, and then issue an annual licence, which they will pay for, permitting them to go ahead.

This will now raise the moral questions that we have been debating since Eve gave Adam the apple to eat.

If we are going ahead with the registration idea, then a separate government agency can be set up to handle the registrations of Vaginas for the sole purpose of generating much-needed revenue for the government as they seek to fulfil campaign promises

Please, where do I submit my resume for this new agency

Msshee. Misplaced priority

Come and beat me

Duke of Shomolu

In Nigeria, a profound crisis of trust is reshaping the media landscape. Once a cornerstone of public discourse, traditional news outlets are losing ground as Nigerians increasingly turnaway from mainstream media, driven by skepticism, misinformation, and a fracturedrelationship with institutions. This growing distrust, fueled by systemic corruption,government interference, and the rise of social media, has significant implications fordemocracy and social cohesion. Below, we explore the roots of this crisis, recent examples,and what it means for Nigeria’s future, written in a crisp, engaging news style.

The Erosion of Trust in Nigerian Media

Nigeria’s media scene is vibrant, with over 100 national and local print titles, state andprivate broadcasters, and international giants like the BBC and CNN. Yet, public confidencein these outlets is waning. A 2023 survey by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalismfound that only 57% of Nigerians trust news media, a figure that, while stable, ranks lowcompared to global standards. Among English-speaking, online news users, just 38% believe the media is free from undue political influence. This skepticism stems from a broader crisis of trust in Nigeria’s institutions. Decades of corruption, weak governance, and a dysfunctional legal system have left citizens disillusioned. The media, often caught between government pressure and commercial interests, is no exception. “When you see headlines contradicting each other or stories thatfeel scripted, it’s hard to know what’s real,” says Lagos-based teacher Aisha Mohammed. Her sentiment echoes a growing perception that news outlets are either complicit in orpowerless against systemic issues.

Why Are Nigerians Ditching Traditional Media?

1. Perceived Bias and Government Interference: Nigerians have long suspected that some media outlets serve as mouthpieces forpolitical or ethnic interests. The 2020 #EndSARS protests, which demanded reforms to Nigeria’s Special Anti-Robbery Squad, exposed this fracture. When Twitter choseGhana over Nigeria for its African headquarters, the information minister blamed Nigerian journalists for “de-marketing” the country with their protest coverage. This accusation highlighted the tense relationship between the government and the press,with journalists facing harassment, arrests, and equipment seizures while reporting onsensitive issues like corruption or protests.
A 2021 report by the Committee to Protect Journalists noted multiple attacks on journalists covering protests, including a raid on the Daily Trust’s offices by soldiers seeking an editor. Such incidents reinforce the belief that the media is either suppressed or aligned with powerful interests, pushing citizens to seek alternatives.

2. The Rise of Social Media and Misinformation: With 122.5 million internet users as of January 2023, Nigeria’s youthful population isflocking to platforms like Twitter, WhatsApp, and TikTok for news. These platforms offer immediacy and diversity but are also breeding grounds for misinformation. A 2019 study found that 93% of Nigerians believe they regularly encounter false political news online, far higher than the 71% reported in the U.S.
During the 2019 elections, politicians reportedly paid “social media entrepreneurs” tospread disinformation about opponents, further eroding trust in information sources.The 2023 elections saw similar issues, prompting the creation of the Nigeria Factchecking Coalition, which included outlets like Daily Trust and Premium Times tocombat fake news. Yet, the coalition’s efforts struggled against the sheer volume of unverified content on social media.

3. Corruption’s Corrosive Effect: Corruption scandals, often exposed by investigative outlets like Premium Times, have paradoxically deepened distrust. While these exposés highlight media’s watchdog role, they also reinforce the perception that corruption is ubiquitous and unpunished. A 2023 Chatham House survey revealed significant dissatisfaction with Nigeria’s political leadership, with many citizens feeling that accountability is a myth.
When PresidentBola Tinubu claimed in 2025 that his reforms had “eliminated corruption,” religious leaders and citizens alike dismissed it as out of touch, pointing to ongoing scandals in government and the judiciary. This disconnect fuels a sense of resignation. “If the media exposes corruption andnothing changes, what’s the point of reading it?” asks Abuja-based trader Chukwuma Obi. For many, social media offers a raw, unfiltered alternative, even if it’s riddled within accuracies.

4. Economic Pressures on Media: The shift to digital platforms has strained traditional media’s business models. Print media, like The Punch and Vanguard, have seen a 5% drop in weekly reach asadvertising revenue moves online. Outlets like Daily Trust have launched subscription services like Trust Plus, but economic hardship exacerbated by a 28% drop in petrol consumption and soaring living costs makes it hard for Nigerians to pay for news. TheCOVID-19 pandemic worsened this, with media houses like Dandal Kura International slashing salaries by up to 80% due to ad revenue losses.

Recent Examples of the Trust Crisis

• NIUK Community Scandal (2025): A controversy involving the Nigerians in the UK Community on social media exposed how Nigerians bypass formal institutions for justice. Instead of trusting legal or media channels, many turned to platforms like Twitter to air grievances, amplifying partisan and ethnic divides. This mirrored the“Sex for Grades” scandal, where social media became a battleground for justice, sidelining traditional reporting.
• Journalist Attacks During Protests (2024): On August 1, 2024, Premium Times reporter Yakubu Mohammed was beaten by police while covering cost-of-livingprotests in Abuja. His phone was seized, and he was detained, highlighting the dangers journalists face. Such incidents make Nigerians question whether the media can report freely or if it’s coerced into silence.
• Election Misinformation (2023): During the 2023 elections, rampant misinformationon social media outpaced fact-checking efforts. Despite initiatives like the Nigeria Fact-checking Coalition, false narratives about candidates spread unchecked, leading many to distrust both traditional and digital sources.

The Consequences and the Way Forward

The trust crisis threatens Nigeria’s democracy. When citizens abandon reliable news for unverified social media, they risk making uninformed decisions, as seen in the 2019 and2023 elections. Low trust also fuels news avoidance, with the Reuters Institute noting a global rise in people selectively ignoring news due to fatigue. In Nigeria, this is compounded by a fractured legal system, where justice is often sought through “jungle justice” or socialmedia campaigns rather than courts.

To rebuild trust, media outlets must prioritize transparency and independence. Investigative platforms like Premium Times and civil society groups like BudgIT and SERAP have madestrides in exposing corruption, but they need broader support to effect change. Fact checking initiatives must scale up to counter misinformation, and media houses should invest in engaging younger audiences on platforms like TikTok, where 56% of 18–24-year olds now access news.

The government, too, must act. Reducing harassment of journalists and ensuring press freedom are critical. The 2021 Twitter ban and proposed social media regulations sparkedfears of censorship, further alienating the public. Reforming the legal system to deliver justice could also restore faith in institutions, indirectly bolstering media credibility.

Conclusion

Nigeria’s trust crisis is a symptom of deeper systemic failures, from corruption to a beleaguered legal system. As traditional media struggles against government pressure, economic woes, and the allure of social media, Nigerians are left navigating a chaotic information landscape. Recent events, from election misinformation to journalist attacks, underscore the urgency of addressing this crisis. For Nigeria to move forward, its media must reclaim its role as a trusted pillar of democracy before skepticism turns to apathy and the truth becomes just another casualty.

In 2017, I wrote about how Nigeria—desperately in need of investors—could leverage economic cooperation with Japan, a country grappling with stagnation, to unlock investment opportunities in our beloved yet beleaguered nation. At the time, our leaders seemed not to recognize the nuggets of wisdom in that piece, which I had written as a form of advice. Unsurprisingly, nothing tangible came out of that trip.

Today, eight years after that essay, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, driven perhaps by his instinct to make Nigeria more viable—a testament to his reform-mindedness—appears ready to harness the benefits of a more cordial and mutually beneficial relationship between Nigeria and Japan.

Japan, widely known as the “Land of the Rising Sun,” is the world’s fourth-largest economy and a true industrial powerhouse. It is the home of Toyota, the most famous automobile manufacturer globally, alongside a host of other world-class products that dominate international markets.

President Tinubu, currently in Japan for the Ninth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9), now has the opportunity to implement some of the recommendations I published on November 22, 2017.

That essay came two years after the late President Muhammadu Buhari assumed office in 2015, when Nigeria’s economy had sunk into a severe recession. At the time, Japan’s Prime Minister was Shinzo Abe, whose reform measures were collectively known as “Abenomics.” My piece, therefore, was titled: “Abenomics: Matching Resources in Japan with Opportunities in Nigeria.”

The core of my argument was simple: Japan, burdened by stagflation (a condition where prices rise while growth stagnates), could be paired with Nigeria, a nation brimming with untapped economic potential. Such a partnership—Japan bringing capital and expertise, Nigeria offering resources and markets—would, I argued, be a “marriage made in heaven.”

Unfortunately, my expectations were dashed. Buhari’s administration, fixated on its rigid zero-tolerance policies, ignored the opportunity. Some of us had warned that this policy approach would plunge the economy into recession, and, regrettably, we were proven right.

It is, therefore, heartening that eight years later, Nigeria has a second chance—this time under President Tinubu—to forge government-to-government (G2G) and business-to-business (B2B) partnerships with Japan.

Today, neither Shinzo Abe nor Muhammadu Buhari occupies the leadership of their respective nations. Instead, the opportunity falls to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan and President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria. Both leaders now have the chance, through combined efforts, to bring to life the vision of a robust Japan-Nigeria business and economic partnership.

The timing could not be more auspicious. The global trade order is being reshaped by U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff reforms. For instance, Japan currently manufactures Toyota vehicles in South Africa. Yet under Trump’s tariff regime, South Africa faces a 30% reciprocal tariff, compared to Nigeria’s 15% tariff—half the rate imposed on South Africa. This makes Nigeria a far more attractive production and export hub.

To take advantage of this lower tariff environment, Japan may need to shift production from high-tariff South Africa to low-tariff Nigeria. That move alone could allow Toyota vehicles produced in Nigeria to reach U.S. and global markets at far more competitive rates.

And that is only the beginning. Beyond automobiles, opportunities abound in other sectors where Japan excels.

The article I wrote eight years ago remains as relevant today as when it was first published. With the world’s socioeconomic realities rapidly evolving, Nigeria must seize this moment. If handled strategically, Tinubu’s outreach to Japan could position Nigeria as a central hub for global trade and investment—an opportunity we cannot afford to squander again.

Here we go:

If the Central Bank of Nigeria Conducted a Stress Test Today

If the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) were to conduct a stress test on Nigerian banks today, most would likely fail. Banks are the lifeblood of business and a mirror of the economy—an economy that is now effectively belly-up.

A combination of factors has brought us here: the slump in crude oil prices; vandalism of oil facilities that has crippled production and exports; the abrupt introduction of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) in one sweeping move instead of a phased rollout; the removal of fuel subsidies without cushioning palliatives like SURE-P for the masses; and the floating of the naira, which devalued the currency from ₦199/$1 in June to about ₦400/$1 on the open market. Together, these shocks doubled the size of bank balance sheets without corresponding credit disbursement. The result: banks now have little or no funds to lend, generating minimal income for their survival and offering scant support for GDP growth, which recent data show is contracting at about -0.2% per quarter.

With the economy shrinking by -2% year-on-year while the population grows at 2%, the picture is grim. For growth to occur, GDP must outpace population growth. In Nigeria’s case, the reverse is happening—population is rising as GDP is falling. This dangerous mismatch makes recovery without drastic intervention unlikely.

In this light, the injection of surplus Japanese yen into Nigeria’s fragile economy—through foreign direct investment (FDI) in infrastructure—could serve as a lifeline, perhaps even the antidote to recession. Our banks are already struggling to stay within the CBN’s regulatory thresholds, and such inflows could provide the much-needed oxygen.

The financial crunch, however, blindsided advocates of naira devaluation. They had argued that both foreign and domestic investors holding dollars would rush to invest once the naira was devalued, eager for quick gains. But in a country riddled with policy inconsistencies and lacking a coherent long-term strategy, such optimism was bound to prove illusory.

The pundits also failed to anticipate the knock-on effects of draining bank treasuries through the TSA or the uncertainty surrounding government policy in the Niger Delta. That ambiguity paved the way for the rise of the Avengers militant group, whose sabotage of oil and gas facilities slashed Nigeria’s crude oil output by as much as one million barrels per day.

It is worth recalling that President Muhammadu Buhari resisted devaluation for nearly a year, perhaps guided by instincts shaped by his earlier experience as head of state between December 1983 and August 1985. In his view, the arguments for devaluation were unconvincing, especially since Nigeria exports only crude oil—a commodity with internationally fixed prices and, at the time, a global glut. He eventually relented on June 20, only for his fears to materialise: the naira quickly spiralled beyond ₦400/$1.

To escape this monetary cul-de-sac, the CBN raised lending rates by two percentage points—from 12% to 14%—at its last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, hoping to attract foreign portfolio investors. Such investors are naturally drawn to high yields, and indeed, Nigerian bonds and treasury bills are now trading at around 20%—a mouth-watering return compared with Japan, where bonds are issued at zero interest, and in some cases, the government pays buyers to take them. But those incentives are reserved for Europe and other stable economies.

This disparity explains why European banks can offer loans at 4%, while African banks—particularly Nigerian ones—charge as high as 26% or more. But at such punitive rates, what kind of business can survive? How can an entrepreneur pay 26% interest, plus 10% overhead (salaries, etc.), and 4% for utilities, pushing total costs to nearly 40%? I stand to be corrected, but I have yet to see a legitimate business that yields such returns—except, perhaps, shady government contracts.

In my view, this outrageous cost of funds is a recipe for bad loans, business failures, and the premature death of enterprises. Indeed, not long ago the CBN and the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) disclosed that non-performing loans in the banking sector were approaching ₦2.4 trillion—about 10% of the ₦24.3 trillion believed to have been disbursed to both public and private sectors.

The grim situation outlined above is understandably giving regulators sleepless nights, as it poses a serious threat to the stability of the financial services sector.

Without dwelling further on the ‘Shylock’ interest rates charged by banks—a story for another day—let me turn to why Nigeria must actively seek Japanese partnership at this time, and how the country can tap into the surplus funds of the world’s third-largest economy. By leveraging the paradigm shift in Abenomics, Nigeria can channel those funds into productive growth.

To illustrate this, picture Japan and Nigeria as two farmers on opposite sides of the world. On one side, the farmer enjoys favourable weather and bountiful harvests, producing more than his people can consume. Yet he lacks sufficient land to expand and is seeking new fields. On the other side, the farmer possesses vast, fertile land but lacks the tools and resources to cultivate it, leaving his family hungry.

The prosperous farmer with surplus is Japan; the struggling farmer with untapped potential is Nigeria. The task of bringing them together—so that each can benefit from the other’s strengths—is at the heart of my Japan-Nigeria partnership proposal.

Nigeria and Japan: A Strategic Partnership Waiting to Happen

The comparison is paradoxical. Nigeria, richly endowed with natural resources from crude oil to nickel, remains poor. Japan, in contrast, has almost no natural resources, yet has flourished into one of the most advanced economies in the world. The lesson is clear: in the 21st century, wealth is no longer determined by land or natural resources, as Thomas Malthus once warned, but by ideas. Microsoft—built entirely on ideas—is today one of the world’s most valuable companies.

Against this backdrop, linking Japan’s $10 trillion economy with Nigeria’s GDP of roughly $320–570 billion (pre- and post-rebasing) should be a strategic priority under President Buhari’s leadership.

The urgency is underscored by Japan’s recent decision to host its annual African trade conference outside its shores for the first time—staging it in Kenya just last month. That conference sought to introduce Africa to new opportunities in the Far East and signalled a paradigm shift in Japan’s perception of Africa: no longer merely a continent of wars and disease in need of aid, but an emerging frontier for trade and investment.

For too long, Japan—once the world’s second-largest economy—viewed Africa through Western lenses that reduced the continent to a charity case. But with growing recognition of Africa as the next frontier of global growth, and with Japan facing stagflation that has resisted traditional remedies, Tokyo has finally turned its gaze towards Africa. For Nigeria, this represents a golden opportunity to position itself as Japan’s preferred partner.

At present, however, negative media coverage and inconsistent policies have driven Japanese and other investors elsewhere—to South Africa, Kenya, and even Ghana, where Japanese investments are already visible. By contrast, China has pursued a far more aggressive approach, rapidly expanding investments in Nigeria, particularly in rail infrastructure.

Nigeria must therefore reclaim its leadership position as Africa’s largest market by actively courting Japanese businesses. Agencies such as the Nigerian Investment Promotion Council (NIPC) and the Nigeria Export-Import Bank (NEXIM) should organise roadshows and targeted campaigns. Yet success will only come if Aso Rock implements credible, world-class policies that create real incentives for investors. The CBN has already shown what is possible by attracting portfolio investors through high-yield bonds, now trading at an eye-catching 20%.

History offers valuable lessons. Japanese firms such as Marubeni and Chiyoda were instrumental in building Nigeria’s oil refineries in the 1980s. As Nigeria seeks private investment in new refineries, Japanese companies could once again play a strategic role—especially if offered incentives such as export rights for a portion of refined products to neighbouring West African countries like Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Benin, and Togo, which currently depend heavily on smuggled Nigerian fuel.

Consider also the recent privatisation of Nigeria’s power sector. Unfortunately, it drew in mostly third-tier firms from Eastern Europe and lower-tier Asian economies like the Philippines—countries Nigeria once surpassed in infrastructure development. With no input from leading technology players like Japan and Germany, the power sector has unsurprisingly collapsed into crisis, weighed down by outdated equipment and crippling debts to local banks, further straining Nigeria’s fragile financial system.

If not for the peculiarities of Nigeria’s system, who exactly is Manitoba in the world of electricity grid management, that it was entrusted with overseeing Nigeria’s power distribution for nearly a decade? If major power firms from advanced economies had been engaged, Nigeria would not be battling today’s problems of inadequate equity, weak generation, and poor distribution. Local banks, too, would not be so heavily exposed, as multinational players would have brought in their capital and equipment.

Imagine the Nigerian oil industry without global giants like Shell, Mobil, Chevron, or Total, and instead being run solely by start-ups such as Seplat, Aiteo, Oando, and Midwestern. That is essentially the situation in Nigeria’s power sector today.

With cabinet members of the calibre of Babatunde Fashola—tested and proven as governor of Lagos—heading the Ministry of Power, and Okechukwu Enelamah—former CEO of Alliance Capital Africa—leading Trade and Industry, creating an enabling environment to attract Japanese businesses to Nigeria should be a no-brainer.

Meanwhile, China—whose economy once grew at double digits, overtaking Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy—has already made deep inroads into Africa. Nigeria, though initially overlooked, has more recently begun attracting Chinese investment in infrastructure, particularly railways.

It is worth recalling that China’s meteoric rise followed its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) less than two decades ago, driven largely by its aggressive investment footprint in Africa. Hundreds of billions of dollars were poured into natural resource extraction in exchange for infrastructure development and the export of affordable goods. To catch up, Japan has now pledged $30 billion in investment funds for Africa, as announced at the recent Kenya conference.

I do not doubt that Nigeria is an ideal partner for an “economic marriage” with Japan—not least because one in every five Africans is Nigerian. Already, a Japanese firm has proposed a light rail project in Lagos—welcome news, but still a modest beginning. Much more must be done through serious engagement with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the key platform for Japanese overseas investments, to demonstrate that a strong Nigeria-Japan partnership would be mutually beneficial—a marriage made in heaven.

Matching Resources from Japan with Opportunities in Nigeria

Japanese investors need only ask South African companies like MTN, DStv, and Shoprite/Game how quickly their Nigerian sales outstripped initial projections—sometimes within weeks—forcing their strategists back to the drawing board. That is the scale of Nigeria’s untapped market.

Three factors justify the title of this article, “Matching Resources from Japan with Opportunities in Nigeria”:

(a) Japan, with its $10 trillion economy and 120 million people, is the world’s third largest. Nigeria, with a GDP of $320–570 billion (pre- and post-naira devaluation) and a population exceeding 170 million, is Africa’s largest market—equivalent to the combined size of three major African countries, but under a single jurisdiction.

(b) Japan is highly industrialized, excelling in vehicles, industrial equipment, and advanced technology, while Nigeria depends heavily on crude oil revenues and has a fragile industrial base. This creates a greenfield opportunity for Japan to deploy its excess capacity in Nigeria.

(c) Japan has one of the world’s oldest populations, with 20% over 80 years old. This demographic reality reduces productivity and consumer demand—contributing to its long-standing stagflation. Nigeria, by contrast, has a youthful population, over 60% under 30, with growing skills, rising consumption, and increasing purchasing power.

These complementary factors provide fertile ground for mutually beneficial cooperation. Japan and Nigeria have the potential to forge a partnership that produces true win-win outcomes.

Interestingly, as Japan hosted the Kenya summit to catch up with China and the West in Africa, China was simultaneously hosting the G20 in Hangzhou, consolidating its global influence. But their interests differ: China seeks natural resources to fuel its manufacturing engine, while Japan is more likely looking for investment destinations for its surplus funds to revive its long-stagnant economy.

Japan may not rival China in low-cost consumer goods—African markets readily absorb China’s cheaper everyday products—but Tokyo can compete in financing large-scale infrastructure projects. While China boasts an $11 trillion economy, its massive 1.3 billion population dilutes per capita wealth, with much of its rural population still mired in poverty. Japan, on the other hand, is a fully developed economy with broadly shared prosperity, long life expectancy, and one of the world’s highest standards of living.

By commission or omission, Japan has been slow to turn to Africa for trade. Unlike China, which urgently requires Africa’s abundant minerals, Japan has historically relied less on raw materials, growing its economy through innovation in hybrids and synthetic substitutes.

Yet Japan now seems ready to break this mold. It has begun reviewing its pacifist constitution—specifically the clause prohibiting involvement in arms races and wars, a legacy of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. At the same time, after decades of stagnation and limited results from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics,” Japan is pursuing a paradigm shift. Its new approach looks beyond traditional partnerships with industrialized nations and seeks deeper engagement with the so-called Third World. Africa, therefore, is no longer viewed merely as a market for finished products like Toyota vehicles, but as a destination for investment in production and infrastructure—moves designed both to revive Japan’s economy and counterbalance China’s expanding influence.

It is only pragmatic that Nigeria’s leaders prepare the country to harness this opportunity.

The words of U.S. Senator William Fulbright come to mind: “To criticize one’s country is to do it service and pay it a compliment. It is service because it may spur the country to do better; it is a compliment because it evidences a belief that the country can do better.”

That philosophy underscores my critique of certain government policies—particularly the branding of the anti-corruption campaign. By joining others in labeling Nigerians as “fantastically corrupt,” the government inadvertently de-marketed the nation, scaring away potential investors rather than impressing them with rhetoric.

In the past, Africa’s poor reputation—especially Nigeria’s—stemmed from a lack of transparency and weak governance. Those shackles have largely been broken. Today, all 54 African nations operate under democratic rule and are members of the WTO, where transparency and anti-corruption standards are mandatory. Yet liberal democracy, the West’s benchmark for attracting investment, has not fully taken root across the continent.

Nigeria remains a revealing case. Under President Muhammadu Buhari, whose reputation rests on personal incorruptibility, sweeping reforms have been launched alongside an aggressive anti-corruption drive. Whether the world views this as genuine reform or political witch-hunting will influence how quickly investor nations like Japan anchor in Nigeria.

Still, much remains to be done to redirect investment flows to our shores. Nigeria’s poor ranking on the global ease of doing business index—169 out of 189—remains a glaring obstacle. Industry Minister Okechukwu Enelamah has promised improvement, but investors will demand visible results. Encouragingly, the floating of the naira, removal of oil subsidies, and other reforms may improve Nigeria’s competitiveness, enabling us to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with South Africa (Africa’s sole G20 member) and Kenya, curiously chosen by Japan as host of its first Africa-focused summit outside Asia.

What is troubling, however, is Nigeria’s exclusion from key global platforms. Our absence as observers at the G20 in Hangzhou—where South Africa participated—and our omission as a host for the Japan–Africa summit, despite our size and prominence, is telling. Nearly 18 months into the administration, global perceptions of Nigeria remain unchanged.

This underlines the need to intensify efforts toward transparency and implement credible, dynamic policies that earn respect abroad. Only then will Nigeria be invited to host epochal events and play a leading role in shaping global conversations.

Recall that, shortly after his inauguration, President Buhari was warmly received in Paris by the European Union and later in Washington by the United States. That early recognition has since faded, as Nigeria is increasingly absent from major global gatherings. This is a clear sign that our narrow focus on anti-corruption has not sufficed. Nations rise not by scapegoating predecessors or devoting all energies to fighting graft, but by articulating and executing sound economic policies.

Finally, it is sobering to note that President Barack Obama—the first African-American U.S. president—will complete his eight-year tenure without ever visiting Nigeria. For a nation that prides itself as the “giant of Africa” and the world’s most populous Black country, that omission should be deeply reflective.

Consequently, if I were President Buhari, I would pause and review my governance strategy to reposition Nigeria to harness opportunities from a deeper partnership with Japan. Such a shift could help reverse our worsening economic decline, which, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), grows more alarming by the day.

Postscript:

The above was my advice some eight years ago—advice that was not heeded. Hopefully, with a second chance now on the horizon, Nigeria can fully tap the benefits of closer ties with Japan, which itself is under pressure from U.S. tariffs—initially 24%, now reduced to 15% after negotiations.

The bottom line is that Tinubu’s participation in TlCAD9 and bilateral meetings with Japanese and Brazilian leaders is expected to promote Nigeria’s economic interests, attract investment, and foster global partnerships that can support the country’s development goals. That affirms his position as one of Nigeria’s most consequential salesmen.

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, and alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, is a Commonwealth Institute scholar and a former commissioner in the Delta State government. He sent this piece from Lagos.

Exactly 230 youths came out today to fight for just 21 roles in the exciting new play BIANCA.
The magic that is this story is so captivating and I thank brands like Axamansard, Ibom Air, Moniepoint, First Bank, Zenith amongst others for keeping the faith.
Bianca has crossed the N40m mark in cost over runs, but its ok. We will make it.

Bianca stageplay is coming to Lagos
Get your VIP Tickets at https://www.ariiyatickets.com/event/bianca/
Date: May 1st | 4pm, 6pm
Venue: Shell Hall, Muson Center

By Abdul-Aziz Mohammed

The title of this article no doubt strikes you as very odd. You probably never thought you would see the words “Social” and “Physics” juxtaposed, and are probably wondering “What on earth could bring them together?”

Well, plenty as it turns out. Not only that, the association actually goes back centuries. Around 16^th-17^th centuries, a notion began to take hold off some of Europe’s brightest thinkers. The notion was that there were natural laws that governed the evolution of society and that rational thinking and the appropriate scientific methods could uncover these laws. In other words, they believed in a “science of society” and also believed that this science could be deduced with the right methods. In this, they were inspired by the major breakthroughs men like Johannes Kepler, Galileo and Isaac Newton in understanding the mechanics behind the evolution of the physical universe.

One of the first of these social thinkers was the great English political philosopher, Thomas Hobbes (1588-1679). Taking a big cue from the work Galileo had done to try to understand the laws of motion, Hobbes tried by reasoning from first principles, to develop a science of human interactions, politics and society. The result of this ambitious effort is captured in his master work, Leviathan published in 1651. In adopting the methods of a scientist to come up with a political theory, Hobbes distinguished himself from most other political theorists that came before him.

When the Leviathan was published, it displeased most people because of the conclusions it drew, but it did have its admirers, if only for its method. One of them was William Petty (1623-1687), who had been a professor of anatomy at Oxford University. In fact, he felt Hobbes had not gone far enough (With the benefit of hindsight, it is however clear that Hobbes had a deeper appreciation of what a science of society should be about). This was because, though the Leviathan had been inspired by physics, it was completely qualitative in nature. William Petty felt that a science of society needed to be quantitative. Petty believed that society could only be understood to the degree that it could be measured and quantified. To this end, he wrote a book titled Political Arithmetick, in which he purported to develop, a “political arithmetic”, which he claimed could free a nation’s leaders from man’s irrationality, and be used to fashion sound and verifiable principles of governance.

Hobbes and Petty were by no means alone in this quest to develop a science of society. In the 1660s, a London-based businessman with scientific inclinations by the name of John Graunt (1620-1674), who happened to be a friend of Petty’s introduced what he referred to as the study of “social numbers” as a means to guide political policy. These social numbers captured different aspects of societal phenomena. The social numbers Graunt was most interested in were death rates. These he published in a book titled Observations Upon the Bills of Mortality. In it, he drew up tables of mortality figures, including causes of death and ages at death. The book was a hit. For all its flaws, it was yet considered a bountiful resource for those who would want to understand the ebb and flow of society. For this he was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society, the premier scientific organization of its time. Petty would continue to revise the Observations after Graunt’s death. By the year 1749, a German by the name of Gottfried Achenwall came up with the name Statistiks for the study of social numbers. This was subsequently translated to the English Statistics. At the time though, the subject merely consisted of the tabulation of numbers. It hardly contained the sophisticated mathematical techniques that have been added to the subject.

We will look at one more social thinker (there were many others), who perhaps more than any other person contributed to the development of the science of society That is the person of Adolphe Quetelet (1796-1874), a Belgian astronomer. He took the ideas of the aforementioned people and others, and weaved them all into a coherent whole. He put forth his ideas in a scientific paper titled mecanique sociale (“social mechanics”), in which he drew direct analogies between the organizing forces of the solar system and those of an orderly social system, with the aim of showing that society was as rule-based as astronomy.

Now at some point in the 19^th century, all this work done by all these people striving for a science of society came to the notice of two physicists; the Briton James Clerk Maxwell (1831-1879) and the Austrian Ludwig Boltzmann (1844-1906). These two were tackling problems in the branch of physics known as Thermodynamics among other problems (Maxwell would also do groundbreaking work in the field of electromagnetism). Thermodynamics is the study of the applications of the motion of heat. Most of the fundamental breakthroughs in the field of thermodynamics took place in the 19^th century and were made largely by these two men. At the time, Maxwell was studying the motion of gas particles. Maxwell was aware that the motion of individual gas particles was hopelessly random making it impossible to deduce anything intelligent about it. However, on reading a book on the progress the science of society had made up to that point, he noticed a powerful similarity to his own work in physics that suggested a way forward. From reading the book, he noticed that while it was impossible to predict when any one individual will die for example, when you study death in aggregate like in the case of the number deaths occurring in a nation, inevitably a certain kind of order and statistical regularities emerge that are amenable to intelligent analysis and can be used for the basis of forecasting. He suspected that the same would prove true for gas particles and in this he was correct. Boltzmann would put Maxwell’s work on a more secure footing. The work of the two men would lead to the emergence of a new branch of physics known as Statistical Physics. The new field would then continue to develop independently from the science of society, right up to the very present.

What has now happened in the millennium is that statistical physics is now returning the favour to the science of society. Statistical Physics has of recent started infiltrating the social sciences. Physicists are using the tools of statistical physics that they have developed over a century, to tackle contemporary social problems. I will be doing a 4- or 5-part series on how statistical physics is being used to solve modern societal problems, starting with traffic or as we call it in Nigeria, “go-slow”. 

Statistical physics can now help us understand how traffic moves and how it clogs. Researchers worldwide have been devising models derived from the physics of liquids and gases which can predict when and where congestion occurs and what form it will take. Traffic has been found to have its own peculiar laws of motion.

“Traffic Physics” actually got its start in the 1950s when a fluid dynamicist by the name of James Lighthill proposed that traffic flow was rather like fluid flowing through a pipe. With the help of an academic colleague, he fashioned this insight into a theory of traffic flow known as the Lighthill-Whitham model. In this model, the individuality of drivers is submerged beneath average driving behavior, just as the theory of fluid motion ignores the vagaries of individual molecules.

Soon after, a group at General Motors developed one of the first of wat are known as car-following models. This model treated cars as discrete objects, as opposed to a flowing fluid. It also assumed that each driver modified his or her speed in response to what the car ahead did. The driver would accelerate or brake depending on two factors: the distance to the car ahead and the relative speed of the two cars.

In the early 1990s, a physicist by the name of Michael Schreckenberg of the University of Duisburg, Germany built in collaboration with a colleague, a traffic model based on the idea of a cellular automaton. A cellular automaton consists of a regular grid of cells, with each cell able to take one of a finite number of states. In the model, the road is divided into a series of cells, each of which can either be empty or occupied by a vehicle. The vehicles move from cell to cell in each time step. Each car wants to reach a preferred speed, and also wants to avoid collisions. Some randomness is added to the model is added to simulate the fact that no one accelerates or brakes perfectly.

It is fair to ask at this point whether these models truly predict real life traffic behavior or whether they are just fancy computer games. In1996, two researchers at Daimler-Benz research laboratories observed traffic patterns on the popular highway known as the autobahn that were precisely forecast by the Schreckenberg model. Another model built in 1998 by physicist Dirk Helbing and a collaborator in Stuttgart, Germany can predict with uncanny accuracy, how traffic would develop as the hours passed, when fed with real life data.

One very important insight that has come out of all this traffic physics research is that fluctuations play a crucial role in causing traffic jams. What this implies is that in many a traffic jam, there is really no “cause” as such. Jams could result simple because drivers (sometimes just a single driver) get too close to the car in front and then slow abruptly, causing the phenomenon to cascade. In other cases, the research confirms what we would consider commonsensical causes of traffic like bottlenecks, on-ramps and hills.

In the final analysis it does seem that traffic physics is proving its worth as regards traffic management. I can only hope that organizations like our Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) or Lagos State Traffic Management Agency (LASTMA) can hop onto this exciting bandwagon.

Bibliography

1. Ball, Philip. 2005 Critical Mass: How One Thing Leads to Another. London: Arrow Books

by Magnus Onyibe

On March 6, 2025, chaos erupted at the Ikeja Electricity Distribution Company (DISCO) in Lagos when a group of Nigerian Air Force personnel stormed the premises. Their reason? The power supply to their base had been disconnected. The attack, reminiscent of a military-style raid, left DISCO staff in panic and confusion.

This incident occurred at a time when Nigerians were still processing the news that the country’s power generation had increased from an embarrassingly low 4,000 megawatts-woefully inadequate for a nation of over 200 million people to 5,800 megawatts. Coincidentally, following the assault on the Ikeja DISCO, the national electricity grid suffered yet another collapse on March 7, 2025, plunging the nation into darkness.

Some conspiracy theorists speculate that the grid failure may have been an act of silent protest by electricity workers, sympathizing with their assaulted colleagues. Others point to the alarming pattern: The March 7 collapse was the third nationwide blackout in just three months, with the previous one occurring on February 12. A look at historical data paints an even grimmer picture – Nigeria experienced 12 system failures last year, averaging one per month, while over the past decade, the grid has collapsed more than 100 times, often leaving the country without power for hours or even days.

The Root Cause of Nigeria’s Power Crisis

At the heart of this crisis lies an aging electricity infrastructure inherited from the colonial era, now severely outdated. To illustrate the severity of the situation, consider this analogy:

A friend of mine owned a battered Volkswagen Beetle while studying at the University of Benin. The car was so old and unreliable that it wouldn’t start with just the turn of the key – it needed to be pushed to get moving. Aware of this, my friend always parked on a slope, ensuring he could start the car without help. This strategy allowed him to keep using the car, even though it was far from ideal. However, if an unsuspecting driver parked it on flat ground, they would be stranded without assistance.

Nigeria’s power system is like that Volkswagen Beetle – an outdated, fragile infrastructure barely kept running by experienced operators who know its weaknesses. For decades, these professionals have managed to sustain the grid at a suboptimal level, much like my friend kept his car running. However, when a “new driver” – in this case, the Minister of Power, Mr. Adebayo Adelabu – attempts to overload the system without addressing its weaknesses, the result is frequent, catastrophic failures. Experts have warned that the transmission infrastructure is too fragile to handle increased power loads, yet these warnings have been ignored, leading to repeated grid collapses.

A Century of Neglect

Nigeria’s electricity system has suffered from a lack of investment, maintenance, and modernization since colonial times. Infrastructure that should be displayed in a museum as a relic of the past remains the backbone of the nation’s power supply. For nearly a century, successive governments have failed to replace this antiquated system, leaving Nigeria trapped in a cycle of power shortages and economic stagnation.

If Nigeria is to escape this crisis, urgent reforms and large-scale investments in modern electricity infrastructure are needed. Without these changes, the country will remain stuck with a failing system – much like a driver trying to start a broken-down car on level ground, hoping for a miracle.

Why Nigeria’s Power Supply Remains Unstable 65 Years After Independence

More than six decades after gaining independence, Nigeria continues to struggle with an unreliable power supply, largely due to its outdated electricity infrastructure. The country’s national grid dates back to the colonial era, with its foundations laid as early as 1914, when the northern and southern protectorates were amalgamated. Despite the passage of time, the power sector has seen little progress, particularly in the transmission segment, which remains in a state of disrepair.

The reason for this is rooted in the flawed privatization of the power sector. While the generation (GENCOs) and distribution (DISCOs) segments were transferred to private ownership, the transmission network remained under government control through the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN). As a result, while private investors have upgraded parts of the generation and distribution infrastructure, the transmission system has remained stagnant due to bureaucratic inefficiencies and lack of investment.

By Duke of Shomolu

I have just heard, not very exclusively, that super investor Mr Femi Otedola hosted savvy businessman and impact Investor Tony Elumelu in his Abu Dabi home just this last night.

Immediately I heard, I rushed to X the platform that I know Mr Otedola really frequents and low and behold a picture of both of them greeted me

I looked very closely at this picture – Tony in a black t-shirt and Mr Otedola in a brown kaftan which is unusual and came to one major realisation

With these two men working together, the economic renaissance of our country would be on a sure footing

Both men are on the Presidential Advisory Committee; both men play in almost the same sectors – Finance, power to mention a few, and both men are two of the biggest philanthropists of all time.

Mr Otedola’s role in philanthropy one can safely say remains unmatched in size, reach and depth while Mr Elumelu’s work in impact investment reverberates globally

In recent times, Mr Otedola has positioned himself as a sort of crusader, moving very aggressively through our financial systems upturning established structures and uprooting powerful blocs in a self-appointed role of breathing fresh energies into some of these institutions

His efforts, especially with FBN Holdings, are beginning to yield fruits with the kinds of results the Group has just announced, which can be placed directly on the doorsteps of the far-reaching reforms put in place under his chairmanship.

His major coup remains the snatching of my brother Wale Oyedeji who today is seen as one of the most brilliant and astute bankers in the land

Wale’s emergence as Group Managing Director of the Group has brought stability and a seamless transition from vision to execution, placing it firmly on the path of riotous growth.

Mr Elumelu on the other hand has built an enviable international career that has seen him hobnob in global corridors of power, a uniquely differentiating positioning for an African

Coming from a class of Bank CEOs who lost their jobs through the Sanusi tsunami, Tony can be said to have made good.

To the best of my knowledge, he only in that class has built a world-class career, spooling out strong forays into areas hitherto not known for

His real claim to fame is the beautiful work he is doing with the Tony Elumelu Foundation

Using that platform, he has bred entrepreneurs continent-wide, supporting capacity building and entrenching very strong ethos into a new army of young African business leaders who in turn are taking the message to the grassroots

It is no wonder that Tony is a constant fixture at global economic events where he is given marquee positions as global issues are being discussed

Nigeria will gain more with these two together than apart

The combined energy, clarity, and vision-driven capacity would go a long way in fostering significant private sector-led growth in the country.

Mr Otedola’s decision to host Mr Elemelu must be acclaimed for what it is – a stretching out of a hand by a brother to another for the betterment of our economic life as a Nation.

This was a good one. Well done guys