DAILY NIGERIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (NFEM) RATES (₦/US$)
Moving Average = 1,330.8803
Previous Average = 1,329.3459
Change = -0.1154%
Forex Analysis
Our naira to dollar moving average fell by a relatively tame 0.12% this week. The naira moved within a tight but generally weakening band across both FX markets. The market this week was characterized by high liquidity but mixed demand dynamics.
The major drivers of this week’s activity include a surging interbank turnover NFEM daily turnover spiked dramatically, crossing the $1 billion mark on October 6 (up from $619.22 million the previous trading session). The spike was primarily caused by corporate buyers and authorized dealers aggressively purchasing dollars to clear outstanding obligations. This influx of trading volume reflected active position-taking by authorized dealer banks and corporate buyers.
Also included in this week’s drivers of market activity were the typical retail demand pressures. The parallel market’s depreciation was primarily driven by end-users (such as individuals sourcing cash for travel, school fees, and small-scale imports) who bypass official documentation requirements. This steady retail demand outpaced immediate cash liquidity in informal channels.
Despite the dip, trading as noted above remained within a tight band because the naira was anchored by robust foreign reserves (crossing $55 billion) and strong global crude oil prices, which mitigated deeper geopolitical currency shocks, though the spread between official and parallel rates diverged slightly to ₦55–₦60.
Daily Crude Oil Prices
Moving Average = $101.14
Previous Average = $103.60
Change = -2.3745%
Crude Oil Analysis
Our Brent Crude moving average fell by about 2.38% this week, though that figure masks a rather volatile week with a significant dip early in the week, which was followed by a sharp rise on Thursday, October 8. The dip was caused by the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to accelerate the release of emergency oil stockpiles to combat tight global fuel supplies. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia successfully resumed flows on its vital East-West Pipeline, which temporarily eased immediate global supply-halt.
The subsequent spike was triggered by intensifying conflict in the Middle East, specifically reports of up to nine oil tankers being targeted in the Strait of Hormuz within a single week, which instantly brought the threat of a physical energy blockade back to the forefront. Tensions started easing somewhat, following statements by U.S. President Donald Trump indicating “productive discussions” with Iran and promising a pause on active military strikes ahead of the upcoming November midterm elections.
NGX Top 10 Gainers for the week closing 9th Oct 2026
NGX Top 10 Losers for the week closing 9th Oct 2026
Stock Market Index Activity for the week closing 10th Oct 2026
Stock Market Index Analysis
Twenty-four (24) equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than forty-four (44) equities in the previous week. Fifty-four (54) equities depreciated in price, higher than thirty-seven (37) equities in the previous week, while sixty-eight (68) equities remained unchanged, higher than sixty-five (65) recorded in the previous week.
It was a strongly bearish week dominated by profit-taking and sell-offs. The NGX Oil and Gas Index faced massive downward pressure, leading market losses. Highly priced energy blue-chips—most notably the recently listed Aradel Holdings Plc and Eterna Plc—saw intense sell-offs. Aradel alone suffered a maxed-out 10% single-day dump on October 8, erasing massive market value as institutional investors locked in quick gains ahead of the final quarter.
Another factor responsible for the bearish tone was investors systematically scaling back their positions, shifting into a “wait-and-see” approach as the market prepares for the release of Q3 corporate financial results. This led to a sharp contraction in market liquidity and trading activity, with weekly turnover collapsing to 2.668 billion shares traded compared to the 7.325 billion shares moved the previous week.
Finally, high-yielding government bonds and securities heavily crowded out equities this week, aggressively diverting institutional capital away from the stock market to safer, fixed-income alternatives.
Below is a sector by sector breakdown of performance for the week October 2 to October 9
Fixed-Income Analysis
During the week of October 02 to October 09, 2026, Nigeria’s fixed-income market experienced intense primary auction activity. The market continued to digest the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) major 350-basis-point reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) down to 23.00%.
In Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs), there was an auction on October 7. The pertinent details of the auction are in the table below:
Total subscription for Treasury bills dropped significantly by 58%, hitting ₦1.77 trillion compared to the ₦4.23 trillion recorded in late September. The bid-to-cover ratio moderated sharply to 1.97 times as money managers pivoted toward the higher-yielding Open Market Operations (OMO) alternative. Yield-starved investors piled 95% of their total NTB interest into the 364-day paper, lodging ₦1.683 trillion in bids.
In Federal Government (FGN) Bonds, there were no auctions this week. Activity shifted entirely to coupon inflows and secondary market portfolio adjustments. Financial updates showed that October FGN bond coupon payments were projected to surge by 52% to ₦434.16 billion.
The secondary market turnover for FGN Bonds during the week was ₦2.18 trillion. This represented a significant 83.1% surge compared to the ₦1.19 trillion recorded in the preceding week, driven by heavy institutional portfolio rebalancing following the Central Bank’s 350-basis-point cut to the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR). FGN bond yields remained elevated, lingering generally in the mid-to-high teens and low 20s depending on the duration.
OMO bills dominated financial system headlines and transaction volumes during the week. The CBN actively used this window to drain excess cash from the banking sector. CBN conducted an auction on October 6. The pertinent details are in the table below:
The 182-day OMO bill absorbed the lion’s share, accounting for ₦2.671 trillion (80.7%) of the total allotment. Investors aggressively chased OMO bills during the week because they offered significantly higher, more attractive yields compared to standard treasury bills.
Daily Bitcoin Prices
Moving Average = $84,301.19
Previous Average = $84,094.34
Change = +0.2460%
Bitcoin Analysis
Our Bitcoin average rose by about 0.25% this week. The market initially surged on massive futures momentum before experiencing a heavy levered liquidation flush late in the week. This rally was heavily driven by futures market speculators who pumped $2.1 billion in open interest into the market right around the release of the U.S. macro payroll report. Institutional spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) inflows also provided a strong floor, bringing in over $102.7 million in a single session.
This institutional buying interest hit a wall mid-week as macroeconomic uncertainty caused ETF flows to reverse into net outflows, removing the immediate buying floor that had protected the $86,000 price territory. This downward shift triggered a cascading margin-call event, culminating in the largest levered long liquidation flush since June. Over $1.17 billion in bullish leverage was wiped off the derivatives exchanges within 48 hours, forcing automated sales that temporarily dragged the spot price down to a weekly low near $80,986.
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