Economy

Sequel to the deposition made by Chicago State University , CSU registrar Mr Caleb Westberg in Chicago, Illinois ,United States of America, USA on October 3 following judge Nancy Madonnaldo , a district court judge’s ruling on 30th September that Wazirin Atiku Abubakar, People Democratic Party, PDP’s 2023 presidential candidate’s law suit demanding the release of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s academic records from CSU to him for presentation as evidence to the Supreme Court in Nigeria, there has been multiple narratives about the outcome of the legal process. The subsequent deposition by CSU registrar as a star witness followed the Discovery order on CSU by the same judge Maldonado who had also compelled the institution that President Tinubu attended for his undergraduate degree, and from which he earned a bachelor’s degree in 1979, to hand over his academic transcript to the petitioner. After the Discovery order had been complied with by the university and the Deposition had been made by CSU’s registrar, both sides of the divide have been claiming victory. Arising from the above,the multiple and conflicting narratives about the unfortunate CSU certificate saga have fouled up the political atmosphere to the extent that Nigeria’s political environment has become too toxic owing to the alarming volume of bile and hate that most public commentators, who have been usurping the role of judges of the law courts,have been spewing into the political environment , and by so doing heating up the polity with the unwary members of society becoming highly incensed. In light of the very high level of attrition that the CSU certificate presented by President Tinubu to INEC has generated,it appears as if court sessions are now literally being conducted in motor parks,barbers shops,hair dressing saloons,malls ,places of worship,(both of the Christian and Islamic faiths) in village meetings and even in the coven of marabouts and witches. That is perhaps why there has been an unprecedented number of extreme opinions on the matter of Tinubu’s presidency. As soon as the case became more of a subject of public opinion than a matter being adjudicated in the court of law, the current bedlam trailing it was not unexpected and as it was bound to happen. The reason for such a negative prognosis is that we are currently in the age of fake/alternative news that can be driven by Artificial Intelligence,AI which can be used flawlessly to make a man say what he had not really said or did not mean to say, thereby miss informing the unwary and vulnerable members of society. In this instant case of the controversy over the authenticity of President Tinubu’s university certificate that has practically seized the public space,physically and virtually,courtesy of the feuding parties, (particularly the appellant,Wazirin Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition PDP’s camp) that has allegedly been making all the documents submitted to the court of law also available in the court of public opinion, one wonders if Nigeria is not experiencing a gradual death of the judiciary in the manner that the executive and legislative branches of government have lost their salt in the eyes of the critical mass of Nigerians ? The fear being expressed above is justified by the high level of emotions trailing the current epidemic of fake news swirling around the CSU certificate presented to lNEC and the legitimacy of president Tinubu’s mandate. As it is generally believed that the judiciary is the last bastion of hope for the common man, one is left with no choice than to wonder how the matter would end up,when the esteemed judges of the Supreme Court eventually give their verdict on or before 6th of December, which is the end of the deadline of sixty (60) days allowed by the provision of the Electoral Act 2022 for the presidential election result currently on appeal for review by the apex after the PEPT judgement of 6 September. It is from the prism of the imminent or unfurling death of the judicial system in Nigeria owing to the fact that everybody has suddenly become pseudo and quasi judges,which is symptomatic of loss of confidence in the judiciary by folks who are holding very strong opinions over the election of Bola Ahmed Tinubu,that l wish to examine the ongoing political/judicial imbroglio arising from president Tinubu’s CSU certificate controversy currently threatening to suffocate our country, literally. Somehow, it is rather unfortunate that nearly nine (9) months (February 25) after Nigerians elected their president and six (6)months (May 29) after the new president had been sworn into office and a period that our president should be tackling a hydra headed monster of socioeconomic challenges of multi dimensional poverty and acute insecurity tormenting our country,it is issues around the legitimacy of the president’s mandate that have been occuping the minds of Nigerians who have converted themselves into emergency court judges of sorts. The evolving unfortunate situation of usurpation of the power of judges and arrogation of the same authority to themselves by the pundits who are presiding in the courts of public opinion, as opposed to the real courts of law where the constitutional responsibility to adjudicate on election matters resides is a new phenomenon in our country which is worrying. The ideal and preferable situation would have been that Nigerians at this point in time would have been debating and contributing their bright and actionable ideas on the best pathway out of a monumental debt over hang estimated to be in the region of N88 trillion; a galloping inflation rate in the neighborhoods of 25% owing to the removal of subsidies on petrol and naira; a crippling debt servicing ratio that is believed to be at par with our country’s income,or even outstripped it ,implying that basically all of our country’s income is being applied in paying debts and a crisis situation that has forced most Nigerians into a state of despair and despondency. It is gutting that instead of all eyes being riveted on how we can all put our hands on the deck to help navigate our ship of state out of the stormy waters in which it is currently sailing,millions of Nigerians,including those with empty stomachs have over the night become experts in American jurisprudence and process of earning a degree as well as whether a certificate is as coveted in the US in the way we place so much emphasis on paper certificates in Nigeria which is contrary to the emphasis on academic transcripts which is preferred in the US. It is based on the scenario described above that l would like to distance my self from the cacophony of voice’s pontificating on the matter. Quite unlike the pundits making incendiary comments by declaring winners and losers of the case already before the Supreme Court of Nigeria for adjudication on it ,I am inclined to make it clear in this intervention that the Discovery ruling on CSU to release the academic records of president Tinubu and the Deposition made by the university’s registrar, Mr Westberg based on the order of judge Nancy Maldonado of Illinois,US district court, is not by any stretch of imagination a final judgement on the legitimacy of the presidency of Tinubu as some aficionados have been making it seem. Arising from the foregoing reality,l am imploring the already beleaguered Nigerians that they should not believe the hype from all sides of the political camps still jostling for the presidency that has been called in favor of president Tinubu, nearly six (6) months ago. Rather,they are being urged to rely on the pronouncement of the Supreme Court that would take all evidences into consideration before arriving at a verdict that l believe would be transparent and likely acceptable to all the protagonists. Put succinctly, it is with the aim to discourage the masses from putting their trust in the pervading conspiracy theories and innuendos that have enveloped the public sphere that l have embarked on a mission in this article to help the hapless masses in becoming aware that the Discovery on CSU and Deposition by the school’s registrar under oath have only put an official seal on the evidence from the US which may be presented to Nigeria’s Supreme Court that is currently reviewing the judgment of the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal, PEPT. That is assuming it pleases the eminent jurists to admit or reject the new evidence, as the Electoral Act 2022, gives the apex court the privilege to apply its discretion It is trite to state at this juncture that the epic legal battle on the presidential election 2023 between former vice president Atiku Abubakar and president Bola Tinubu that has been fought in courts across the Atlantic Ocean on two (2) continents- Africa and North America exacerbated the situation which has made the crisis in Nigeria global. And the negative fall outs of the presidential election result has assumed such a crisis’ dimension given that it has been dominating public discourse since the verdict on the 25 February election exercise was made in favor of president Bola Ahmed Tinubu on the first day of April (1/4/2023) by the INEC,that it has presently taken on a life of its own . It is pertinent to point out at this juncture that apart from the incidence of advanced fee fraud (also known as 419) which has resulted in the worst de-marketing of Nigeria leading to its unfortunate branding as a nation of fraudsters,the controversy over President Tinubu’s CSU certificate has been the next worst thing that has dented the image of Nigeria. And the unfortunate thing about it is that it is a self inflicted harm on the image of Nigerian people which may take quite some time to undo. As to be expected,both the protagonists and antagonists in the matter have been trading blames over who is culpable for the negative blow back that washing the dirty linen of our beloved country in the public arena has triggered. Now, wether the placement of the matter in the court of public opinion instead of leaving it in the conventional court system is a strategic ploy by the appellant to gain public sympathy which it had been enjoying in the course of the PEPT that gave its ruling on 6 September against the expectations of some members of the public that were promoting narratives from their personal and sectional bias and therefore a ploy to wipe up sentiments is yet to be deciphered . Nevertheless ,the negative sentiments wipped up by the twisted interpretations of the Supreme Court rules and the Electoral Act 2022 provisions regarding the acceptance of new evidence and the place of academic certificate which appear to be a pre election matter,seem to be signaling the imminent death of our law court system as the arbiter in disputes as reflected by the apparent increasing loss of confidence in the judiciary by Nigerians which is a worrying phenomenon that needs to be closely studied with a view to nipping it in the bud before it becomes a culture. Be that as it may,one thing that is clear is that the much talked about epidemic of fake news is taking its toll on the 2023 general elections.That is in light of the fact that pre and post election activities have taken dominance over not just the political arena, but the judiciary and even the economic space by sucking up all the oxygen in the environment such that the critical mass of Nigerians have been unable to breathe since the race for the presidency commenced roughly twenty four (24) months ago. And the major reason for the heightened political consciousness amongst Nigerians stems from the fact that election 2023 witnessed the highest involvement of our youths otherwise known as Gen Z who actively registered in unprecedented large numbers (97m) to vote after the INEC promised that the elections would leverage technology to produce its outcome. That INEC proposition created excitement amongst the youths who basically thrive on technology and rule the social media which is an unregulated or under regulated platform for information dissemination that has had disruptive effects all over the world. For instance,the social media had been effectively leveraged in the past by then senator Barack Obama from the state of Illinois to defeat senator Hilary Clinton from the state of New York in the Democratic Party primary elections held. That happened when Obama the eventual winner of the contest, deployed it to woo and mobilize youngsters who had never voted in the past to become an active voting base that swung the pendulum in his favor against senator Clinton. Subsequently, it was alleged that even Russia used information technology and social media to also sabotage the general elections in the US in 2016 during the former Secretary of State, Senator Hillary Clinton’s contest for the presidency against the eventual winner ,a real estate mogul Mr Donald Trump who is currently leading in the poll for the 2024 presidential contest. So, essentially, the social media is a two edged knife that can cut from both sides. While it was salutary that it enabled mass mobilization of our youths hitherto apathetic to voting into a formidable voting force by getting them massively registered, thus enabling them to vote in 2023 elections, on the flip side it is currently fueling the ruckus in the socio/political firmament of our beleaguered country. That is because the same youths that are questioning the veracity of the elections results are using the social media to heat up the polity. The development would have been okay if the youths are not allegedly being manipulated by suspected nefarious actors who appear to be harboring sinister intentions against our cherished country. Again,that is essentially why l am urging the electorate -including the usual voters,the new voters comprising of the youths who are voting for the first time and the diaspora Nigerians(hopefully who may be allowed to vote in 2027 elections if NASS passes legislation to that effect) not to fret or believe the hype from the camps of both the winner and losers in the 2023 presidential contest. That is because only the Supreme Court of Nigeria can make a binding decision on the matter and in which l urge them to have faith. Is it not amazing how the narrative about the 2023 elections which was driven by then candidate Tinubu’s alleged health issues as his opponents claimed that he was incoherent in his speeches and was slipping up and stumbling on campaign podiums,have suddenly disappeared from public discussion? By what can be deemed as an extraordinary miracle, the alleged infirm Mr Tinubu has since his inauguration been traversing the world from France to the UK to India ,Guinea Bissau, Dubai to New York and holding mentally challenging meetings with fellow world leaders and with potential investors across the globe, as well as local politicians, and organized labor back home in Nigeria. It is indeed incredulous to me that the same Tinubu that has been so parodied is currently a supper man that is engaging in the grueling marathon-race like meetings as earlier mentioned. I recently came across (in the social media therefore unverified) a statement attributed to president Tinubu accepting to practically bear the cross of being criticized as a price of putting himself up for public office contestations. An excerpt from it goes thus: “I AM A PRODUCT OF INSULTS” “Some people get easily angry whenever they see me being insulted. I think that is childish. I am a politician and it is my right to be insulted. It is my right to be called names,it is my right to get bad wishes from whoever I outrun in the polity. Politics, sometimes, is a bully game, don’t get distracted, and keep your eyes on the ball. It is a game of numbers but equally important, a game of common sense with the sole aim of improving people’s lives with the right policies.” The phenomenal transformation of the Tinubu persona from an infirm to a man strong enough to engage in activities that entail superintending over Nigeria a tumultuous time and serving as the Chairman of ECOWAS in the past six (6)months , during which two (2) military coups have occurred in two (2) countries is evidence of what the social media can do by making a man appear to do what he did not do or do as l had pointed out in earlier paragraphs in this discourse. It is on account of the scenario above that l am urging Nigerians not to believe the current hype about President Tinubu’s CSU certificate being fake and the admissibility or otherwise by the Supreme Court, the new evidence from ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar that has practically seized the atmosphere. A similar situation applies to the PDP presidential candidate, Wazirin Adamawa who is one of the most vilified politicians of our time pre-election 2023, based on allegations that he is corrupt. It bears recalling that during the run up to the elections, and throughout the campaigns period ,there was a deluge of allegations that the PDP presidential candidate looted our country’s assets when he was vice president to Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, OBJ (1999-2007) and all the ills bedeviling Nigeria. He was even accused of being responsible for failed government investments in industries that should have ideally been under the purview of the private sector and also alleged to have sold assets hitherto owned by government to himself and acolytes simply because he led the privatization of public enterprises effort of the ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, OBJ’s administration(1999-2007). It did not help matters that President Obasanjo who was vice president Atiku’s boss continued to tar him with a black brush by labeling him a thief during and after their reign in office and even documented the allegations in his book and continued to rail against his former deputy up till the 25 February presidential election during which OBJ had a horse in the race-Mr Peter Obi of Labor party,LP. But fast forward to today to see how stunning it has turned out that Wazirin Atiku Abubakar whose name was dragged into the mud pre 2023 election has become in the period after the elections, the poster child of the 2023 presidential elections in the manner that Chief MKO Abiola of blessed memory embodies the June 12th 1993 elections that has been adjudged to be the freest and fairest election organized in Nigeria? At a world press conference held on 6th October following his success in compelling CSU to release President Tinubu’s academic records to him and a deposition made by the school’s registrar,the triumphant presidential flag bearer of the PDP, ex vice president Atiku Abubakar invoked the image of the late human rights icon Gani Fawehinmi (an epitome of honesty) who had unsuccessfully prosecuted then governor of Lagos state,Bola Tinubu (1999-2007) on the matter a little over two (2) decades ago: “I wish to pay tribute to the late human rights activist, Chief Gani Fawehinmi, SAN, who inspired us on this path of discovery. Now, he can truly rest in peace in the assurance that what he started about 23 years ago has come to fruition. Gani’s vindication today gives credence to the saying that no matter how fast a lie runs, the truth will someday overtake it.” That was a positive development for the Wazirin Adamawa as his hitherto tarnished image pre election has been laundered by the events that have occurred post 2023 elections. Hence his name is being mentioned in the same breathe as Chief Gani Fawehinmi-the mascot of probity and accountability. But if he fails to win the current case in the Supreme Court, he may retire from politics with a squeaky clean image ,since he is currently 76 years old and would be 80 by 2027 which is the next election season and therefore very likely be too old to contest for the office office of president of Nigeria again. In the course of the same world press conference held to announce that he is challenging president Tinubu’s victory that was subsequently affirmed by the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal, PEPT, the PDP 2023 presidential candidate had alluded to leaving his faith in the hands of the Supreme Court to decide. That is quite the opposite of the situation with the image of president Tinubu who although has been vindicated by showing physical strength and mental capacity after he assumed office as president on 29 May, as opposed to the lies peddled against him in the course of the campaign that he is too infirm to discharge the duty of President and commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Nigeria; he has been inundated by another deluge of public opprobrium triggered by the controversy stemming from his CSU certificate. In effect the case against President Tinubu by his challengers in court has pivoted from the claim that he was declared the winner because the result was not passed through the much hyped Biometric Verification System, BVAS by the INEC, to the allegation that he did not attend CSU , thereafter it was alleged that it was a female Bola A Tinubu in her 50s that got admitted into CSU in 1974. After failing to prove the aforementioned allegations beyond reasonable doubts, the latest allegation is that President Tinubu submitted a forged CSU degree certificate to INEC and therefore he was unqualified to contest for the presidency of Nigeria back in February. Such is the nature of politics which is defined by the fact that politicians do not give up fights until it is really over. After the 6th September verdict by the PEPT, which ordinarily should have reduced, if not end the tension,majority of Nigerians led by aggrieved politicians were aghast that technicalities rather than the basic rule of law were applied in arriving at the decision to uphold and affirm president Tinubu’s victory at the polls,and mounted a campaign of calumny against him. Today it is amazing that the same people that had vilified PEPT for relying on technicalities in affirming Tinubu’s victory in the 25 February presidential polls, are pressuring the Supreme Court to rely on technicalities to rule that since CSU registrar, Mr Caleb Westberg admitted on oath that the school did not issue president Tinubu with the certificate that is being claimed to have been submitted to INEC,that he should be stripped of the presidency on account of the notion that technically he is unqualified to run for the presidency since his certificate is not the exact same one issued by CSU. The high level of emotions trailing the current epidemic of fake news swirling around the CSU certificate presented make one wonder how the matter would end up when the esteemed judges of the Supreme Court eventually give their verdict on or before 6th of December which is the end of the deadline of sixty (60) days allowed by the provision of the Electoral Act 2022 for the case to be reviewed by the Supreme Court after the PEPT judgement of 6 September. Apart from imploring Nigerians not to believe the hype , l am also advocating that since the record of the Discovery on Tinubu’s academic details from CSU and the Deposition made by the registrar are in the public domain, Nigerians should endeavor to carefully peruse the questions and answers session conducted by Ms Angela Liu, the counsel to Atiku Abubakar on Mr Westberg the CSU registrar and the one conducted by Mr Peter Henderson, President Tinubu’s attorney on the same Mr Westberg on the same issues. In my assessment,while the former (Ms Angela Liu) tailored her questions to highlight the discrepancies in president Tinubu’s academic credentials,particularly the diploma (certificate) and make it seem like it is forged , the latter, (Mr Peter Henderson) framed his questions to connect the dots in order to make it clear that President Tinubu earned the degree accordingly and the errors observed may be clerical and do not vitiate the fact that he attended CSU and was duly awarded the degree that he presented to INEC , although it is not the original one which he lost during his struggle against the military as a National Democratic Coalition, NADECO a pro democracy advocacy group leader. It is the duty of the highly experienced Supreme Court jurists to identify the salient points in both conversations in order to make justifiable decisions on whether president Tinubu forged his certificate or simply did not submit the original certificate that he was issued upon his graduation from CSU in 1979 due to loss of the document. They would also be seeking to determine whether it was illegal to procure another with or without CSU’s express permission. And if indeed he procured a replacement, whether it can be said that he forged the one he presented to INEC having reported the original one as missing and if the new one represents a legitimate replacement since the same grade that he legitimately earned as a student of CSU having fulfilled all the conditions precedent to being awarded the degree is what is reflected in the certificate that he presented to INEC. Navigating their way through all the legal land mines strewn around the issue of reliance or otherwise on BVAS for the presidential result and authenticity of president Tinubu’s degree certificate submitted to INEC and wether it should be admitted as new evidence for the petitioner are the difficulties that the Supreme Court justices have to deal with and it promises to be a tricky one for the eminent and highly experienced Supreme Court justices. That is because right now law and politics have become too intertwined and emotions are running high. Little wonder the chief Justice of Nigeria, CJN, Justice Kayode Ariwoola on a recent occasion of swearing in newly appointed appeal court justices admonished them not to be intimidated in the course of discharging their duty. A spectacular post that l recently came across in the social media suggests that the admissibility of the Discovery order and Deposition by CSU registrar, Mr Caleb Westberg is not automatically a bonafide legal document in Nigeria: “The magistrate’s Court judgment in Chicago – USA that Atiku Abubakar is seeking to utilise to upstage the democratically elected government of the Republic of Nigeria is null and void ab initio because it is coming from an inferior court of competent jurisdiction. “The judgment would first have to be registered and litigated in the Nigerian High Court before it can be used in the corresponding or higher courts, with parties to rights of Appeal up to the Supreme Court, See section 4 ( 1) Foreign Judgement ( Reciprocal Enforcement) Act.” The post which must be cold comfort to ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar’s camp , if true, is attributed to one Dr George Ogunjimi. In an uncanny way,one thing that President Tinubu has going for him is his grit and what appears to be laser focus on harvesting the fruits of his labor by virtue of currently being one of the foremost pro-democracy activist in Nigeria as he was in the forefront of those that chased the military out of the political leadership of our country back to the barracks in 1999. The assertion above is underscored by the fact that his supporters are making the case that while those engaged in the current showdown with him over his victory at the polls which earned him the presidency of Nigeria, were enjoying in the comfort zone ,President Tinubu was a leading member of NADECO that pressured the military to relinquish political power to politicians in 1999. As legends have it,then senator Tinubu had escaped death by the whispers after which he ran into exile to evade being assassinated by the tyrannical military dictator of that time who was head of state of Nigeria. Suffice it to say that President Tinubu was literally busy as a pro democracy activist dodging the bullets of the dictators that ruled Nigeria with iron fist in the mid 1990s and whose leader wanted to transform into a civilian president,so he unleashed the brutal force of his goons led by the notorious sergeant Rogers on those opposed to his intentions. As law enforcement and judicial records have it,the bullets of sergeant Rogers,it was that felled Mrs Kudirat Abiola,the elegant and courageous wife of the acclaimed winner of the famous 12 June 1993 elections,chief MKO Abiola of blessed memory. So,President Tinubu is making a case that it was in the course of his pro democracy activism that led to the pushing of the military from political leadership back into the barracks,that he lost some of his valuable possessions,including the original degree certificate from CSU which got lost and replaced with the one being referred to as forged by his traducers. All those sentiments are likely to be on display when the Supreme Court would be making its final decision on the matter. Until then, l would like to once again encourage anxious Nigerians who can not wait for the election impasse to be over so that they can once again get on with life, not to believe the hype. Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria. To continue with this conversation and more ,please visit www.magnum.ng

On the morning of Oct. 7, the Palestinian militant group Hamas carried out a massive attack on Israel that was nearly unprecedented in its scale and scope. Hamas fired rockets from Gaza and infiltrated its operatives across the border, where they engaged in firefights at seven different locations in southern Israel, according to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). At least 250 Israelis have been killed, and that number is expected to rise, with over 1,400 more wounded, including at least 18 injured critically and 267 in serious condition. Hamas has also reportedly taken dozens of Israelis hostage, releasing video to support its claims.

One cannot justify murder and violence, but why would Hamas commit such horrible crimes when they know what the final outcome is going to be? Hamas’s leaders see Israel as illegitimate and hostile. They believe that attacking Israel is justified and that, in the end, they can gain politically from doing so. They know that ordinary Gazans will pay a terrible price from the Israeli response, but they hope that the eventual political settlement will be in their favor.

Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF said approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the 2014 and 2021 crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, using paragliders among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, “We are at war,” and launched Operation Iron Swords, conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already claimed 232 lives in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.

The situation is chaotic, and the fighting is ongoing—the ultimate numbers of dead, wounded, and hostages may be far greater than initial reports. Undoubtedly, early information is incomplete, exaggerated in some areas and understated in others, and in some cases plain wrong. But several observations stand out.

Tim Marshall’s insights on recent history, causes, consequences, and a way forward for the ongoing Israeli-Palestine bombardments offer valuable perspectives that shed light on the complex and tragic situation unfolding in the region.

Historical Context: 

To understand the current crisis, we must first acknowledge the deep-seated historical tensions between Israelis and Palestinians. Tim Marshall has consistently emphasized the importance of historical context when analysing geopolitical conflicts, and in this case, it is no different. The roots of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict date back decades, marked by disputes over territory, sovereignty, and identity. Decades of violence, failed peace talks, and a lack of a comprehensive resolution have left both sides disillusioned and deeply entrenched in their positions.

Causes of the Escalation: 

Hamas’s massive attack on Israel, as horrific as it is, cannot be viewed in isolation. It is a tragic manifestation of the desperation and frustration that has been simmering in Gaza for years. The blockade of Gaza, imposed by Israel and Egypt, has resulted in dire living conditions for its inhabitants, with limited access to basic necessities. Tim Marshall’s analysis highlights the role of political leaders in fuelling this desperation. Hamas, deemed a terrorist organization by Israel and many Western countries, sees violence as a means to gain political leverage and draw international attention to the plight of Gaza.

The statement, “One cannot justify murder and violence,” underscores the fundamental ethical principle that violence should never be condoned. However, it also prompts us to question why such violence occurs. It underscores the belief among Hamas leaders that attacking Israel, despite the predictable and devastating consequences, is seen as a justifiable means to achieve their political goals.

Consequences of the Escalation: 

The consequences of the recent escalation are disastrous for both Israelis and Palestinians. Tim Marshall’s emphasis on the human cost in conflicts is particularly relevant here. The casualties on both sides are staggering, with innocent civilians paying the heaviest price. Families are torn apart, communities shattered, and the psychological scars of violence deepen.

The disproportionate use of force by both sides exacerbates the suffering. The rockets launched by Hamas and the airstrikes by Israel wreak havoc, not differentiating between combatants and non-combatants. The taking of hostages adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile situation, further highlighting the tragic consequences of this conflict.

The Way Forward: 

Tim Marshall’s approach to conflict analysis encourages us to seek a way forward, even in seemingly intractable situations. In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the path to peace is long and fraught with challenges, but it remains essential.

First, there must be a renewed commitment to diplomacy and dialogue. The international community, including the United Nations and regional powers, must facilitate negotiations that address the core issues of the conflict, such as borders, refugees, and the status of Jerusalem. A two-state solution, with a secure Israel and a viable Palestinian state, remains a widely supported framework for peace.

Second, humanitarian considerations must be paramount. The suffering of the people in Gaza cannot be ignored any longer. The blockade must be eased to allow for the free flow of goods and services, and efforts should be made to rebuild infrastructure and improve living conditions. International aid and support for reconstruction are imperative.

Third, leaders on both sides must take responsibility for their actions and refrain from using violence as a political tool. The cycle of violence can only be broken when both parties commit to a peaceful resolution and work towards a future where their respective rights and aspirations are acknowledged.

In conclusion, the ongoing Israeli-Palestine bombardments are a tragic manifestation of historical tensions, desperation, and political calculations. Tim Marshall’s insights remind us of the importance of understanding the historical context, acknowledging the causes of the escalation, recognizing the devastating consequences, and charting a way forward through diplomacy and humanitarian efforts. While the road to peace in the region is long and arduous, it remains an imperative goal for the sake of the innocent lives caught in the crossfire and for the hope of a more stable and just future.

Justice Monica Dongben-Mensem, the esteemed president of the court of appeals, has expressed concern about the strain placed on the judiciary as a result of an excessive caseload, mostly attributed to the inundation of political issues into the court system.

Her Lordship disclosed that during and after the 2023 election period, politicians officially presented a noteworthy total of 1,209 appeals. These appeals are presently receiving privileged attention, potentially eclipsing other matters of economic and social importance in the country, consequently relegating non-political legal concerns to a position of lesser priority.

In her analysis, Justice Dongben-Mensem verified that out of 1,209 petitions filed, five (5) were specifically addressing the Presidential Election Petition Court, while 147 pertained to the senatorial election. Additionally, 417 petitions were related to the House of Representatives, 557 were associated with the state Houses of Assembly, and 83 focused on gubernatorial elections.

Although the distinguished jurist identified the high number of election-related lawsuits during this period as being primarily attributed to a deficiency in internal democratic processes within the political parties, it is also important to acknowledge the existence of an additional contributing component, which is the necessity for more amendments to our country’s legislation, specifically the Electoral Act of 2022.

These revisions should aim to address the existing loopholes and ensure a more comprehensive framework, a responsibility that falls upon the legislators of the 10th National Assembly (NASS).

As the verdicts of the various election petition tribunals began to trickle in on September 6th, with the five (5) justices who sat over the Presidential Election Petition, PEPT, leading the charge, the political atmosphere in Nigeria has become fraught with multiple upheavals, with a good number of senators, members of the House of Representatives, governors, and members of state houses of assembly having their victories overturned.

As of the most recent count, the tribunals have invalidated the governorship elections in Kano and Kaduna states, as well as several senatorial and House of Representatives elections across the country, and the election of the current speaker of the Plateau state assembly has also been invalidated.

The current situation implies that there is likely to be a prolonged backlog of cases in the judicial system, as politicians whose election outcomes have been overturned will pursue further legal action in higher courts in a bid to revalidate their electoral success.

Initially, owing to number of elections over turned,supporters of the Labor Party (LP) believed that the tribunals were specifically targeting their candidates. However, they later realized that candidates from other political parties, including the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the ruling party All Progressives Congress (APC), and even the smaller New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), were also experiencing setbacks in the electoral tribunals.

Given that the LP and PDP presidential candidates are currently pursuing legal action to challenge the victory and assumption of the APC candidate as president, it is important to note that their claims are based on allegations of a technical malfunction during the transmission of the presidential results.

This malfunction supposedly facilitated the manipulation of the outcome in favor of the declared winner by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). However, it is perplexing to observe that the results of other elections, which were not reported to have encountered any issues with the electronic transmission of results, are also being contested and invalidated.

The point being made here is that some of the results of both the Senatorial and House of Representatives elections that were passed electronically into the INEC database and displayed via IReV and which were adjudged to be unassailable by those denying President Tinubu’s victory at the February 25 polls have been decided by the various state tribunals as being tainted.

The events seen in tribunals around the country, which have led some politicians to express jubilation via triumphalism while others exhibit denialism, indicate that the principle of justice remains impartial. The emblematic representation of justice, often shown as a blindfolded woman wielding a sword in one hand and a scale in the other, serves as a powerful embodiment of the concept of justice. In the context of the 2023 elections, in my view,this symbol has been used to impartially administer justice to all candidates involved.

It is plausible to surmise that the electoral tribunals around the country are working autonomously rather than in concert, resulting in distinct rulings tailored to specific cases.

In this context, if the judiciary is really seen to be biased towards the All Progressives Congress (APC), as claimed by the opposition, it is noteworthy that the two governors who have been removed from office by the tribunals are from the APC (Kaduna state) and the NNPP (Kano state) stables.

It is noteworthy to observe that there has been no instance of a reversal of a governor’s election conducted under the platforms of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) or the Labour Party (LP).
Does that not suggest that the judiciary is working independent of the influence of the ruling party?

Following President Tinubu’s inauguration on May 29, the opposition parties have mostly been in control of the election narrative, focusing on President Bola Tinubu’s academic history at Chicago State University (CSU) in particular.
As a result of that, all eyes have been focused on the duel between the triumphant candidate of the APC, President Bola Tinubu, and the denier,who is the APC’s flag bearer and former vice president, Atiku Abubakar.

Given that this conflict has now shifted across the Atlantic Ocean and is being considered within the jurisdiction of the United States court system, where significant action from the opposing sides has already played out,as the presiding judge in the US case, Nancy Maldonaldo has determined the ultimate victor between the two parties with respect to Discovery order of court on Chicago State University,CSU, our focus will solely be directed towards the presidential elections within this discourse.

To establish context, American attorney Angela Liu, the legal representative of former vice president Atiku Abubakar, lodged a formal complaint with CSU which president Tinubu’s alma mater requesting the disclosure of his alleged counterfeit certificate.

In response, Christopher McCarthy, President Tinubu’s attorney, sought to postpone the release of his client’s personal information, citing potential harm if done hastily. This legal tactic was utilized to allow sufficient time for the preparation of a comprehensive response, a common strategy frequently employed by legal professionals.

Coincidentally, similar to President Tinubu’s legal team, Atiku Abubakar’s lawyers also requested an accelerated hearing of the case in the United States court, presided over by Judge Jeffrey Gilbert. This request was made due to the potential harm that any further delay in obtaining the academic records from CSU could cause to the petitioner’s case.

It is important to note that, according to the Electoral Act 2022, introducing new evidence in Nigeria’s Supreme Court is prohibited after a certain period of time, thus making it time-barred.

On Monday, September 25th, which is the date that Judge Macdonaldo granted permission for the response to be submitted, President Tinubu’s legal team argued that the petitioner’s request would be considered a fishing expedition.

For the sake of those unfamiliar with legalese, it is important to clarify that the term “fishing” in legal discourse refers to a situation where the motive behind seeking the authority to inquire is unclear.

On the contrary, it is anticipated that upon the conferral of authority, a favorable outcome will ensue. According to law dictionary, it is typically uncommon for courts to approve such claims due to their tendency to be speculative in nature.

The ongoing legal dispute between former Nigerian vice president Atiku Abubakar and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the courts of the United States of America bears resemblance to a previous incident involving former US President Donald Trump.

While preparing for his contest for the presidency of the US, Trump made claims asserting that former President Barack Obama was not born in the United States. Due to the absence of substantiating evidence, the individual in question was embarking on an exploratory endeavor, akin to a fishing expedition, with the intention of unearthing potentially compromising information by asserting that Mr. Obama is not of American origin.

Initially, President Obama refrained from providing his birth certificate as a means to refute Mr. Trump’s assertion. This situation subsequently led to Trump’s associates initiating efforts to obtain President Obama’s academic records through legal channels, albeit without success.

Eventually, President Obama chose to release his birth certificate voluntarily, thereby making it available for public scrutiny. Upon the release of this document, which served as confirmation of his birth within the United States, Donald Trump was ignominiously silenced.

Coincidentally, former President Trump had also taken measures to protect his personal and corporate financial records from authorities in the state of New York and the general public, both prior to and following his assumption of the presidency as the 44th president of the United States.

However, on Tuesday, September 26th, the city of New York successfully obtained official access to his financial records. Consequently, charges of fraud were brought against former President Trump and his two sons for allegedly inflating the value of their real estate asset in New York, namely the Trump Tower etc.

After employing legal measures to impede access to his financial records for nearly a decade,the regulator eventually obtained the aforementioned information. Upon review, did the regulator discover compelling evidence against President Trump that was anticipated to be very impactful or revelatory? Indeed, they did not. This assertion stems from longstanding claims that the real estate magnate, Mr. Trump, maintained connections with both organized crime and the Russian government.

During the prelude to the 2019 presidential campaign for re-election , opponents of Trump contended that he engaged in strategic politicking towards Russia due to a perceived influence the nation held over him, potentially stemming from his involvement in illicit activities on Russian soil.

The recent judgment by the New York Court reveals that Mr. Trump has been accused solely of engaging in the act of inflating the worth of his real estate holdings and nothing else. So, after all the hoopla regarding former President Trump’s finances, it turned out to be a little more than hot air as he was not found to be linked to any sinister activities as had been suspected.

This may be the case in the Atiku Abubakar/Bola Tinubu/CSU legal battle in the United States now that a superior court under judge Nancy Maldonado has ruled that president Tinubu’s CSU academic record (non-personal) must be released to the petitioner, as earlier ruled by judge Jeffery Gilbert.

In Nigeria, many have also referenced the instance involving former president Goodluck Jonathan, wherein he denied the request for the disclosure of his Doctor of Philosophy,PhD records from the educational institution from which he graduated . The university’s response to the Freedom of Information (FOI) request, in which they declined to give the information to a human rights and good governance advocacy group, has gained significant attention on various social media platforms.

While the veracity of the social media report remains unverified, the act of withholding or obstructing the disclosure of educational records to political adversaries is not an unprecedented occurrence in Nigeria.

At this juncture, it is apropos that we take a hard look at all the possible scenarios in the unfolding elections 2023 saga in order to have a good sense of the possible final outcome of the epic political battle between the ruling party and the main opposition party’s candidates for the presidency of our beloved country.

For the purposes of this discussion and conjecture, it should be noted that it is a well-established fact in Nigeria, as well as the rest of the world, that a male and a female can have the same name, particularly when the name is unisex, as in the cases of Chika, Uche in Igbo land, and Bola, Biodun in Yoruba land.

The prevalence of individuals sharing identical names is particularly widespread within the Hausa/Fulani region, where there is a significant number of perhaps up to one million Mohammed Abubakars who do not necessarily share the same lineage nor originate from the same locality or state.

The prevalence of shared names among individuals with origins from the northern region of our nation can be attributed to the historical practice of naming Hausa and Fulani individuals after their respective towns or villages of origin. Consider the late Mallam Isah Funtua, who was named after Funtua town, or Dr. Musa Kwakwanso, hailing from Kwakwanso village.

From a technical and political standpoint, it is plausible to consider the scenario where a female individual, other than President Tinubu who is male , is claimed to have gained admission into CSU. In this context, it is conceivable that both a female named Bola Tinubu and a guy named Bola Ahmed Tinubu, distinguishable by their middle names, may have been admitted into CSU around the same period.

And what if the clerk who documented Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s records at CSU made a typographical error and put female instead of male while carrying out the assignment? What if all the hullabaloo was caused by two (2) letters FE being unintentionally added to MALE to give the impression that there was a female Bola Tinubu?

The reason for raising the above posers is that these are political times wherein saying and doing things just to make political opponents furious or ticked off and fall into error are legitimate political weapons.

If the court has granted the petitioners’ full request, would this not amount to inadvertently giving aid to an opposition candidate, whom the intervenor has accused of conducting opposition research?

Is it not the reason why judges preside in the Temple of Justice with meticulous scrutiny, considering all aspects of a case, in order to ensure that justice is not only served but also perceived to be served?

William Blackstone, an English legal scholar, coined the proverb “It is better to err on the side of caution” in his influential 1760 book Commentaries on the Laws of England.

This statement provides a rationale for the legal principle in criminal law, commonly referred to as Blackstone’s ratio (or Blackstone’s formulation), which posits that “it is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer”.

In trying to play the role of a devil’s advocate, one is of the opinion that proving a stolen identity case, which Turaki Atiku Abubakar’s lawyers are alleging and hoping would be the golden bullet to literally shoot down President Tinubu’s ambition and dispose him of his presidency following his election victory on February 25th, would not be a simple task, if not an impossible mission, and here are the reasons why.

So far, there may not be a female Bola Tinubu who has complained about being impersonated. If she is alive,she would have to be a witness or be joined in the case. If she has passed on, she must have family members that would stand in for her.

Otherwise, on what basis could it be asserted that Bola Ahmed Tinubu posed as a female Bola Tinubu in order to gain admission to CSU, given that no evidence of her existence is available?

My intuition is that the narrative may not resonate with the judges of the Supreme Court in Nigeria (assuming new evidence is admitted) if the petitioner is unable to produce the female Bola Tinubu, a purported US citizen, whom they claim has been impersonated by the incumbent president of Nigeria, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Under normal circumstances (especially on moral grounds), I would agree wholeheartedly that the educational records of President Tinubu or anyone else occupying public office should be released to the public so that he can receive acclaim for academic excellence, especially since President Tinubu’s CSU transcript reveals that his performance is in the top 10 percentile.

However, I would want to protect my academic records if they were to be utilized for the purpose of doing opposition research on me. This is a commonly observed phenomenon in the realm of politics. President Tinubu and his legal team seem to consider the discovery litigation filed by the petitioner in this manner.

The reality is that it is in the character of politicians to behave in ways that confound the general public. This is because there are almost always underlying issues in political affairs, and only tackless actors in the political game fall into the pitfalls set by their opponents, who draw them into the public arena by means of blackmail and conspiracy theories.

The primary objective of shrewd politicians, however, is to convert the problems foisted upon them by their detractors (who are numerous) into promotion by doing things on their own terms.

Imagine if President Tinubu’s academic records are eventually disclosed as directed by Judge Maldonado later this week, and they turn out to contain nothing objectionable.

How would the legal and media teams of PDP candidate and former vice president Atiku Abubakar, who have been raising expectations and feeling triumphant, appear if it were determined that President Tinubu was admitted to CSU legally and did not engage in identity theft as has been alleged?

Although it would seem as if l an holding brief for President Tinubu, the purpose of this piece is to enlighten Nigerians on the subject by highlighting the fact that politicians have numerous reasons to be extremely complex and convoluted in their behavior.

The reality is that it is inherent in the essence of politics for players to engage in sophistry. Which is why I do not fault Nigerians who are perplexed by the ongoing political conflict between 2023 election winners and denialist politicians.

In reality, there are always grey areas in politics, as opposed to black and white divides. And what is taking place today between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a classic illustration of things being in the grey zones of politics that can be perplexing to the uninitiated.

During the legal proceedings in 2019 involving Atiku Abubakar and Muhammadu Buhari, Mallam Abba Kyari, who served as the Chief of Staff to President Buhari at the time, made an allegation that Atiku was of Cameroonian nationality rather than Nigerian.

Supposedly, this can be attributed to his birthplace in Jadda, a region located within Adamawa State. Notably, Jadda was situated on the Cameroonian side, which had not yet been included in Nigeria prior to the vote that made Jadda a part of Nigeria . Despite the absurdity of the incident, it did occur.

During the presidency of Alh. Shehu Shagari from 1979 to 1983, under the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), there were allegations made against Shugaba Daman, a candidate representing the Great Nigerian People Party (GNPP), an opposition party to Shagari’s National Party of Nigeria, NPN in Borno State.

These allegations claimed that Daman was a foreigner from the Niger Republic. Consequently, it was determined that he did not meet the requirements to participate in the elections.

In the meantime, Alh. Daman was living a normal life in Nigeria until he confronted the NPN and was drawn into the arena of anomie, as he was deported to the Niger Republic after the NPN obtained a favorable judgment. Is that not ludicrous?

In 2003, I assumed a public office as a commissioner in Delta, my home state, through an appointment by Chief James Ibori, who served as governor from 1999 to 2007. Before the appointment was confirmed , I encountered vehement opposition from a local group that aimed to promote an alternative candidate for the commissioner position in my local government area.

However, their efforts were unsuccessful, as Governor Ibori selected me for the appointment instead of their preferred candidate.

In an attempt to obfuscate the situation, the local political interest group had disseminated a fabricated story, which can be characterized as a very deceptive falsehood, asserting that my origin was in Edo State rather than Agbor in Delta State.

The individuals provided a rationale for their assertion subsequent to discovering the existence of a family residing in the border town between Edo and Delta State (Igbanke) who possessed an identical surname to mine. The absence of any biological or social connection to the specified family in Igbanke, Edo State, was inconsequential to them. In reality, I hail from Ogbe-Umudein, the homestead of the kingmakers in Agbor Kingdom.

Following Governor Ibori’s dismissal of the false allegations and subsequent confirmation of my appointment, a period of calm ensued, and the individuals involved in the plot to undermine my political career revealed to me their collaborative efforts aimed at sabotaging my political trajectory. This exemplifies the nature of politics.

As a result of the foregoing, my advice to those splitting hairs over President Tinubu’s academic records or those ecstatic that the president’s political career is about to be derailed by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, whose status has shifted from denial to triumphalism as a result of his victory in the US court, is to wait and see what happens in Nigeria’s Supreme Court, which is the final arbiter on the matter.

While the Discovery case in the United States has kept optimism alive in Turaki Atiku Abubakar’s camp, Mr. Peter Obi’s ‘neck of the wood’ looks to have turned inactive. Will the US court’s finding that the discovery requested by the petitioner on President Tinubu’s academic records at CSU rouse the LP camp?

The petitioner, former vice president Atiku Abubakar’s legal and media team, has been ecstatic about the explosive evidence that the president’s comprehensive academic records at CSU, once disclosed, may contain.
And is there any sure guarantee possibility that when the new evidence (assuming it contains anything incriminating) is presented by the petitioner in his appeal to the Supreme Court of Nigeria, it will be admitted or permitted to matter in the case?

And because the Supreme Court is structured to consider not only the fundamental principles of law but also the existential realities of society by balancing the positive against the negative effects of its decisions, the highest court will likely have a lot to ruminate on.

Over all, the greatest beneficiaries of the hard-fought legal battles in the US and Nigeria would be the Nigerian electorate. That would be regardless of the triumphalism and denial of the 2023 elections by the ruling and main opposition parties and their presidential candidates, President Bola Tinubu and former vice president Atiku Abubakar.

The assertion above is underscored by the fact that at the conclusion of the arduous litigation, our electoral law would be stronger.

That is not discountenancing the fact that some attorneys in Nigeria and the United States have reaped and will continue to reap handsome financial rewards as a result of the rush to the courts by politicians who believe that the laws of our land, particularly with regard to the Electoral Act 2023, are too vague and therefore require the intervention of the judiciary, the third branch of government, and the interpreters of laws.

Put succinctly, as someone who considers himself an optimist that constantly looks for the positive side of bad circumstances (turning lemons into lemonade) and who finds oasis in deserts, even though some critics think that the 2023 elections have brought democracy to its nadir in our nation,I am of the opinion that anything that emerges from the intensely contested legal battles in Nigeria and the US courts between Mr. Peter Obi of the LP and Turaki Atiku Abubakar of the PDP over President Bola Tinubu’s victory in the election 2023 would undoubtedly deepen the practice of democracy in Nigeria by turning it from what appears to be a narrative of doom, gloom, and a fledgling state into lofty heights.

That is because our lawmakers in the 10th National Assembly will now see the obvious need to fine-tune the laws and rules governing elections, which need to be clarified and made watertight in order to avoid clogging the law courts with pre- and post-election litigation, which the Appeal Court President Justice Monica Dongben-Mensem has lamented as putting too much undue strain on the judges.

According to the jurist, the prominence of electoral issues is overshadowing and displacing other facets of life, such as commercial disputes and familial problems, which also need legal resolution. Moreover, the prioritization of political cases seems to be superseding other matters during the present election period.

Having been apprised of the above information, it is my fervent hope and l guess the expectation of all well-meaning Nigerians that the 10th National Assembly will tie up all the loose ends in the Electoral Act 2022 that have caused politicians to rush to the courts over election matters so that apolitical Nigerians can breathe.

Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst, author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng

As the curtains rose on a bright morning in Abuja, Nigeria, I found myself seated among a panel of distinguished individuals, all gathered to discuss the intricate web of challenges that plagued our nation’s economy and society. Dr. Tope Fasua, the recently appointed Special Adviser on Economic Matters to the President, had convened this event on September 28, 2023. The room buzzed with anticipation, and as I looked around, I couldn’t help but sense the gravity of the topics that lay before us. My role as a panelist was to provide insights into Nigeria’s economic challenges, and I had a specific perspective to share—one that sought to redefine our approach to development.

As the discussion unfolded, a member of the audience voiced a viewpoint that had echoed through Nigeria’s policymaking corridors for years: “Nigeria has an implementation problem,” they said, “our plans are well-crafted, but the issue lies in their execution.” It was a sentiment I had heard countless times before, but today, I was here to challenge it. In my view, Nigeria’s struggles extended beyond mere implementation issues or planning deficiencies; our nation faced a more profound problem—a lack of coherent strategy.

The conversation took flight as I delved into the heart of the matter. I began by distinguishing between development strategy and development plans, using Nigeria’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 as compelling examples of the contrasting approaches.

In Nigeria, I explained, our development plans have often been meticulous in detailing what to do and how to do it, much like the ERGP. Yet, the missing link has been the overarching strategy—the “why” behind the “what” and “how.” Our plans have been input-driven, preoccupied with the mechanics of development without a clear strategic vision.

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, provided a striking contrast with its Vision 2030. This was not merely a plan; it was a strategy—a vision of the future Saudi Arabia aspired to. It was outcome-driven, with a keen focus on what they wanted to achieve, not just how to get there. The Saudi Arabian strategy was working because it had a clear sense of purpose and direction.

To drive home the point, I turned our attention to the agriculture sector, an area Nigeria has consistently identified as worthy of promotion. However, I argued, we had failed to define what “winning” meant for Nigeria in this sector. We lacked a clear understanding of why we wanted to play in this field and how we intended to win.

In Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, they had made it abundantly clear why they were promoting certain sectors. They were not merely playing; they were strategically positioning themselves to win. This clarity of purpose informed every decision they made and every resource they allocated.

Continuing with the agricultural sector as an example, I emphasized that Nigeria had not adequately addressed the critical question of what capabilities needed to be put in place. Saudi Arabia, with its strategy, had identified the essential capabilities required to succeed in their chosen sectors. They were investing in education, research, technology, and infrastructure to build those capabilities.

Furthermore, I pointed out that Nigeria had overlooked the crucial aspect of the management system required to drive these capabilities toward success. Saudi Arabia, with its Vision 2030, had a well-defined system of governance, policies, and regulatory frameworks that supported and facilitated the execution of their strategy.

The room fell into a contemplative silence as the panel and the audience absorbed the significance of these distinctions. It became clear that Nigeria’s struggles were not merely about planning and implementation; they were rooted in the absence of a coherent national strategy—a grand vision that would guide our actions, prioritize our efforts, and align our aspirations with our capabilities.

I concluded my remarks by echoing the words of John Lewis Gaddis, who succinctly defined strategy as “the alignment of potentially unlimited aspirations with necessarily limited capabilities.” Nigeria, I argued, must find this alignment. We must bridge the gap between what we aspire to achieve and what we realistically can. It was time for our leaders and policymakers to shift their focus from the blame game of implementation to the strategic thinking that would drive our nation forward.

The former minister on the panel nodded in agreement, recognizing the validity of the argument. The former national legislator, known for his pragmatism, voiced his support for a more strategic approach to governance. The entrepreneur on the panel shared stories of his struggles in navigating the labyrinth of Nigeria’s economic landscape, underscoring the need for a clear national strategy that would provide a roadmap for businesses.

The university professor, an authority on the capital market, chimed in, highlighting the importance of investor confidence, which could only be bolstered by a coherent and consistent national strategy. Finally, the SME consultant, who had worked closely with small and medium-sized enterprises, stressed the need for clarity and stability in policies, both of which a well-defined strategy could provide.

As the discussion continued, the room came alive with ideas and enthusiasm. It was evident that the concept of a national strategy had struck a chord with the audience. I hope Dr. Tope Fasua, our host and the Special Adviser on Economic Matters to the President, will recognize that this perspective could be a catalyst for change.

In the end, our gathering had evolved into more than just a panel discussion; it had become a call to action. It was a call to transform Nigeria’s approach to development, to replace the fragmented plans with a unifying strategy, and to chart a course toward a future where our aspirations were not limited by our capabilities but guided by them.

As I left the event, I couldn’t help but feel a sense of hope. We had taken a step in the right direction—a step toward a Nigeria with a clear strategy, where we played to win, and where the nation’s aspirations were not mere dreams but achievable realities. It was a vision worth pursuing, and I was optimistic that, with the right strategic thinking, Nigeria could indeed rise to its full potential.

I had mentioned in my last post that I was going to embark on a series of posts about Institutions. Given that I have to do some original research on the subject they will take some time. In a side task I had been preparing a write up on the South Korean economic development story for an On Air Personality (OAP), in the hope that it could serve as the basis of a radio program. I have decided to turn that write up into a post and in order to save time and effort, I am reproducing the original write up almost verbatim.

Hello Gabriel (not real name). Trust you are good? Here is the script I was talking about. I wrote this script so you could understand how in trying to solve our economic problems, how misplaced our emphasis on natural resources is.

I had already treated this topic in general terms, in one of my posts titled The Illusion of Natural Resources. What I want to do here is specifically focus on the developmental story of South Korea. South Korea went from being poorer than Ghana in the 1960s to being one of the richest in the world in the space of 30-40 years.

South Korea was in very bad shape at the end of the Korean War with North Korea in the 1950s. In 1961, the yearly income of the average South Korean was $82. That is less than half what the average Ghanaian was making at the time, which stood at $179. Half of its manufacturing base and at least 75% of its railway system had been destroyed in the war. Their primary schools were even more crowded than African primary schools in the 70s and 80s. Today, South Korea ranks amongst the world’s wealthiest nations.  Samsung, is emblematic of the journey the South Korean economy has undergone as a whole and is a pointer to the economic structural change the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa need to undergo, if our economies are to generate mass prosperity. From its inauspicious beginnings in 1938 as an exporter of fish, vegetables and fruit, Samsung is now a world leader in the production and export of high end mobile phones, semiconductors, computers and consumer electronics in general, as well as ocean-going ships.  

The following table shows the changing percentage composition of GDP going to agriculture, Industry (Manufacturing, mining + Utilities, Construction) and services in South Korea.

I don’t have data for the remaining years till date but if you do a Google search, you will find that in 2021, around 56.98% of South Korea’s GDP went to Services, 32.45% went to Industry and less than 2% went to Agriculture. For comparison, the figures in 2021 for Nigeria are 43.79% went to services, 31.41% to industry and 23.36% to Agriculture. You should bear in mind that official statistics doesn’t track the informal economy, which takes the larger share of economic activity in Nigeria (roughly between 50-80%) and is heavily skewed towards subsistence agriculture and low income services like hairdresser, bricklayer, welder, labourer etc. So what I am saying is that the share of manufacturing in Nigeria’s real GDP (official + unofficial) is probably overstated, perhaps significantly so. Plus, not all manufacturing are alike. The bulk of Nigerian manufacturing goods will be of the most basic kind (agro-processing and basic chemical products), lacking the sophistication and richness of the high value goods produced in South Korea. You shouldn’t interpret South Korea’s declining share of industry in GDP as a diminishing importance of Industry. A significant amount of services are created as a result of demand from industry. To take an example from the British Fashion Industry, 90% of the jobs in that industry are involved in conveying the product to the consumer, not making it but without the 10% required for making the product, the other 90% would not exist.

The following table shows the change in South Korea’s production pattern, basically, its top ten exports over the decades.

Notice how in the 1960s that its top 10 exports were exclusively natural resource based? They were agricultural, aquacultural, forestry and mining produce. In just 10 years, they had started exporting light manufacturing products that used these natural resources as inputs. Here I am talking about textiles, Wigs, footwear, tobacco, iron/steel/metal products. They had even started exporting electronics (most likely consumer electronics like radios and TVs). Note that for them to be exporting means that they were already successfully producing for the domestic market. By the 2000s, a mere 40 years later, they were exporting advanced electronics like semiconductors, computers and wireless telecommunication equipment. By 2015, South Korea, representing less than 1% of the world population, became the fifth largest exporter in the world, accounting for 3% of world exports.

That is the kind of progress we need to be making if we are to create mass prosperity in Sub-Saharan Africa. Note also that this is also typically the pattern of development for any country that has industrialized and managed to pull the bulk of its population from poverty.

The South Koreans and the other East Asian Tigers were able to achieve this economic miracle as a result of aggressive Industrial Policy.

Industrial Policy is a country’s official strategic effort to encourage the development and growth of all or part of the economy, often focused on all or part of the manufacturing sector. The government takes measures aimed at improving the competitiveness and capabilities of domestic firms and promoting structural transformation.

The Industrial Policy implemented by South Korea in 1960s and 70s radically and drastically changed the South Korean economy from an agrarian one to an export-oriented industrial one.

Successful industrialization in the modern era has nowhere and never been an accident. It has always been based on some policy that aimed at supporting manufacturing. Few fully realize that industrialization is a crucial necessity for economic development and requires design and implementation of appropriate policies. Many countries ignore industrial policy or fail to employ it effectively.

Industrial policy is used to change the production structure of an economy in favour of the manufacturing industry by channeling a government’s selected budgetary and non-budgetary resources and by channeling private capital, labour, and entrepreneurs towards the manufacturing sector. Industrial policy, as other ‘structural policies,’ is designed and implemented in order to improve the long-term growth performance of the economy. In particular, it helps countries surmount the so-called middle-income trap by raising growth performance over the long term. This is made possible by the innovational and growth-inducing nature of the manufacturing sector.

 Today’s industrialized nations which experienced their industrial revolutions after the British have all employed industrial policies at different times in their development cycles. This is confirmed by the stories of France, the USA, Japan, Germany, and Russia. In each of them, one or more dominant leaders pushed for economic (and social) reform and industrialization. They did it for the country to become powerful both militarily and politically. Industrialization has thus been used as a tool for military and political power.

Overall, industrialization is a capacity-building process that materializes through real manufacturing experience over time. It requires the development of human and institutional skills.

It is also important to understand that Manufacturing is the pioneering driver of growth; it is the sector in which the productivity is relatively high and which raises the growth of the sector. That in turn leads to productivity increases (and hence growth) in the non-manufacturing sector, importantly including services, amply demonstrated by the British Fashion Industry example above.

That’s it. Let me know what you think.

Bibliography

1. Chang, Ha-Joon. 2007 Bad Samaritans: The Guilty Secrets of Rich Nations & the Threat to Global Prosperity. London: Random House
2. Yulek, Murat A. 2018 How Nations Succeed: Manufacturing, Trade, Industrial Policy, & Economic Development. Singapore: Palmgrave Macmillan

I would like to commence by underscoring my disagreement with the viewpoints espoused by certain individuals, who argue that the appointment of Mr. Festus Keyamo as the new minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development is mismatched due to his lack of expertise in aviation, whereas his expertise lies in the field of law.
In my perspective, the assertion made is unfounded as there is no historical evidence to support the claim that any president or prime minister worldwide has had prior experience or training in presidential competence prior to assuming office.

If electing a president based on subject matter expertise, such as tackling efficaciously, existential challenges, were true, the experience of electing a retired army general, Muhammadu Buhari as president in 2015 to address the acute case of insecurity that had started ravaging the country towards the end of Gen. Olusegun’s tenure as president from 1999 to 2007 has proven that it is a mere fallacy.
This is demonstrated by the fact that Nigeria’s instability spiraled out of control while the country’s most recent past president—a renowned military tactician who was heralded as a messiah—was in office.
With the exception of presidents who are re-elected for a second term, a majority of them assume positions in public administration without any expertise in the field. Indeed, if a prerequisite for the presidency was past experience in the executive office, only vice presidents would have met the eligibility criteria, as they are the only individuals who have presidential experience and therefore have the best opportunity to succeed their bosses (President) in the presidential role.
Nevertheless, there are evident reasons that support the notion that vice presidents are comparable to spare tires, rarely utilized and typically not favored as successors to their superiors. Consequently, it is common for presidents to be elected from individuals who have not previously held the position of vice president. It is a well observed phenomenon, even within highly developed democratic nations, that the occurrence of a vice president assuming the presidency following the departure of a substantive president seldom happens.
Nevertheless, it is significant to note that there exists a notable deviation from this general trend in the case of the United States of America (USA). Specifically, Mr. George H.W. Bush, who previously served as vice president under Mr. Ronald Reagan, assumed the presidency and held office from 1981 to 1989 as the 41st president.
The concept of American exceptionalism may have originated from President Reagan’s trust in Mr. Bush, who, based on experience as ex Director of the CIA, was able to help President Reagan weather the storm arising from Iran-Contra arms scandal and his steadfastness in holding brief for Reagan while he was recuperating from gun injuries following an attempt to assassinate him. That is why President Reagan,the 40th US president who saw in Mr Bush a patient and dogged politician against advise provided backing during Bush’s presidential campaign by endorsing him as his successor, indicating his satisfaction with Bush’s performance as vice president.

Another example that it is not always necessary for the person appointed to head a ministry to be a subject expert is Dr. Ben Carson, a renowned neurosurgeon who was appointed Secretary of State for Housing and Urban Development by President Donald Trump from 2017 to 2021.
As a highly regarded medical doctor, he could have been appointed secretary in charge of health and medical services. He was, nonetheless, named Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.
Consequently, there exists no rigid guidelines regarding a minister’s level of expertise in the specific subject matter or ministry to which they are assigned. With the sole exception of the justice ministry, which mandates that the minister possess qualifications as a member of the bar or bench,and to a certain extent the health ministry, which necessitates a health professional (though not necessarily a medical doctor), all other ministries, including the finance ministry, are open to being headed by individuals lacking formal training in finance or economics.
In Nigeria, a significant case of the finance ministry not being managed by a subject/matter expert occurred a few decades ago under President Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration (1999-2007). That was when the finance ministry was run by Mallam Adamu Ciroma, a skilled and respected journalist, rather than an economist or accountant.
Prior to becoming Finance Minister, Mallam Ciroma was inadvertently appointed Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor by then military head of state, Gen. Murtala Mohamed (1975-76), who intended to appoint Mr. Liman Ciroma, an economist with the same surname as Mallam Adamu Ciroma. Despite not being an economist, Mallam Ciroma went on to have a successful career as CBN governor. Sunsequesntly, In 1999, President Obasanjo (OBJ) named him as finance minister.
In light of the aforementioned context, I argue that it is counterproductive to engage in the fallacy of believing that only individuals with expertise in a specific subject should assume leadership positions in ministries. This assertion acknowledges the current situation in the aviation ministry, which is being overseen by Mr. Keyamo, a legal expert, as well as in other ministries like Solid Minerals Development , where Mr. Dele Alake, a seasoned professional in media and communication, serves as the minister.
While the appointment of subject matter specialists to lead ministries may be beneficial, it is not an absolute necessity. The act of harboring diminished expectations for the aforementioned ministers or any other individuals who have been assigned to lead ministries outside their areas of expertise, as perceived by their critics, and who, according to such critics, should not have been appointed to oversee those functions (thus being considered an anomaly), is a manifestation of linear thinking, which, in my estimation, is imprudent.
To bolster the preceding assertion which leadership and management experts would readily attest to, I would argue that the skills required to be president, governor, minister, or commissioner are essentially leadership skills encapsulated in the ability and capacity of the personality bestowed with the responsibility.
This perspective is substantiated by the notion that the upper echelons of an institution or organization can consistently rely on institutional or corporate memory due to the fact that individuals holding positions at the permanent secretary and director levels within ministries are regarded as senior personnel, comparable to executives in the private sector.
These individuals are required to have accumulated extensive experience within their respective ministries, often spanning several years or even decades. Consequently, they possess a wealth of knowledge regarding the organization’s culture and protocol, thereby embodying its essence.Therefore, they are often relied upon to provide guidance for the progress of the ministry, department, or agency in which they possess institutional knowledge.
Based on the aforementioned, ultimate responsibility lies with the president, governors, ministers, and commissioners at their respective levels of leadership. However, it is essential to point out that final decisions of a strategic nature are made by the chief executives only after policies have undergone rigorous scrutiny. These decisions are informed by the advice provided by technocrats such as line officers, permanent secretaries, and directors, as well as the expertise of special and technical assistants appointed by the ministers in their respective subject areas.
By all standards of measure,both Mr. Keyamo, the immediate past minister of state for labor who is now the minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development , and Mr. Alake, an ex-commissioner of information in lagos state (1999-2007) which is about 20 years ago who has subsequently set up and managed media houses, cannot be said to lack the necessary leadership and management acumen to take on national responsibilities.
As Alain De Botton, a Swiss-born British author and public speaker, once noted, “Human beings are born with different capacities. If they are free, they are not equal. And if they are equal, they are not free.” This means that the strength of human beings comes not just from their educational training but also from their leadership abilities, which can be innate.
Illustrative of the significance of institutional memory, Mr. Keyamo, who has assumed a leadership role in the aviation sector, has endeavored to build upon the established agenda within the ministry as set forth by his predecessors.
This is seen in the prioritization of aeropolis development as a key component within his comprehensive four-point agenda. Remarkably,the Ministry of Aviation has been persistently endeavoring to accomplish this work without success for an extended duration. To the credit of Mr Keyamo, developing aeropolis currently holds the highest position on the ministry’s list of priorities. The idea that aviation serves as a catalyst for economic expansion and the concept of the aeropolis as evidence of this phenomenon are not novel.
In fact, I have a personal anecdote that traces its origins to my tenure as a commissioner within Delta state government, around two decades ago. During that period, specifically in 2005, I was actively involved in the planning and development of Asaba Airport in Delta State.
During the tenure of Chief James Ibori as governor, the Delta state government made the decision to establish an airport in Asaba, the capital of Delta state. This decision was motivated by the desire to mitigate the potential loss of life resulting from road accidents during the approximately two-hour journey from Asaba to Benin City, where the nearest airport was situated. That is in addition to the fact that approximately four (4) hours of traveling thro and fro Asaba to Benincity by public servants would also be saved if an airport was set up in Asaba.
As an individual, the concept of an aeropolis as a complementary infrastructure to the proposed airport emerged in my thoughts. Prior to that,I had presented a proposition to then Governor Ibori on the prospect of engaging with China, a nation that was then characterized by its surplus of financial capital and experience, with the aim of securing their assistance in the development of the Asaba airport through the implementation of a Build, Operate, and Transfer (B.O.T.) framework. This proposal was subsequently endorsed by governor lbori.
Then, in 2005, I had the honor of traveling to China with the then-deputy governor, Sir Benjamin Elue, as head of delegation to negotiate with Chinese corporations with competence in developing airports and other important infrastructure facilities. That was long before the current Chinese businesses that dominate the Nigerian construction industry began arriving on our shores to build railways and airport terminals.
Although the construction of Asaba airport failed to take place during Governor Ibori’s tenure, which concluded in 2007, the groundwork had been established. Subsequently, Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan, who assumed office as governor in 2007 following the end of Chief Ibori’s tenure, proceeded to construct the airport utilizing funds derived from oil revenue, thus deviating from the original Chinese Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) framework that we had initially suggested.
Since I was already out of government at the time, I reactivated the notion of an aeropolis along side with my private sector team by acquiring 10.3 hectares of property adjacent to the airport to build Asaba Airport and Convention City.
The proposed concept entailed a diverse real estate project that would incorporate a retail complex in the form of a shopping mall, as well as a convention center that would serve as a venue for hosting conferences and seminars,catering to various professional groups, including lawyers, doctors, nurses, accountants, and others and capable of accommodating a minimum of 2000 individuals, with the potential to expand to a capacity of 3000.
The proposed development would have also contained a couple of three-star hotels, executive offices catering to large enterprises targeting the southeastern and south -south markets, residential properties including homes and apartments, and a collaborative effort with a renowned Indian hospital to establish an international medical facility sought after by Nigerians engaging in medical tourism, specifically for organ transplant procedures, in India.

However, as is common in Nigeria, the government of the day did not support Asaba Airport and Convention City which would have included the construction of a tunnel from the airport across the major highway linking Benin City to Onitsha into Asaba Airport City, thereby diverting traffic towards Onitsha from the ever busy highway into the Okpanam, the adjoining town to Asaba. The project, which did not need any funds from the state government but only required the provision of infrastructure such as electricity and roads, ultimately failed to see the light of day for reasons best known to then governors of Delta state.
Rather than providing backing for the project, the administration of Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, which succeeded Governor Uduaghan’s administration, appropriated the concept and tried to implement it by itself. That is despite the costly feasibility study that we conducted and presented to both governors.
Under the leadership of immediate past Governor Okowa efforts were made to recreate the aforementioned project in the region of Anwai road in Asaba which was not adjacent to the airport,as such it has turned out to be a white elephant project even as the international hospital component of the project that could have triggered medical tourism in the state was established in the hometown of one of the Governors.
So,the entirety of the initiative,except the hospital was accomplished through the utilization of public funds which went against our original proposal that involved securing financial backing from institutional and developmental entities such as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), African Development Bank (ADB), and Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) and Delta State Oil Producing Community (DESOPADEC) intervention funds, among other potential sources.
The proposed Airport and Convention City, which was intended to include dedicated police, Petrol, and fire stations, had the potential to become a significant economic hub that could have boosted the local economy in line with then state government’s mantra: “Delta Without Oil”.
This development would have created numerous employment opportunities for a substantial number of eligible individuals from the Delta region, particularly among the younger population. However, the idea did not come to fruition due to the opposition of the governors who acted out of self-interest.
Ultimately the governors who could have enjoyed the benefit of leaving a worthy legacy of employment generating center turned out to be equal losers with the youths because government in the absence of venture such as aeropolis ( Asaba Airport and Convention City has continued to be major employers of labor which is the reason the salary bills is so huge, very little is left as such it is unable to provide infrastructures like schools, hospitals, hospitals,roads etc.
So, my endorsement of Aviation and Aerospace Development Minister, Mr. Keyamo’s initiative to implement aeropolis nationwide is rooted in my firsthand encounter with the endeavor to establish an aeropolis in Asaba. Recognizing the substantial multiplier effects and favorable impacts on the local economy associated with the airport proximity, I express my support for this endeavor.
The potential implementation of a new city surrounding Abuja Airport, leveraging its substantial land area, might facilitate the establishment of hotels, retail establishments, and other aviation-centric enterprises, mirroring similar developments observed in other nations.
The United Arab Emirates, specifically Dubai, has undergone a significant transformation over the past few decades. Originally a quaint boat building enclave, that had sought financial assistance from Nigeria several decades ago, has emerged through deliberate efforts,as a prominent economic center for the Middle East and Africa, with a focus on tourism, retail, and trade. This development was facilitated by the intentional set up and growth of Emirates airline, which was seamlessly integrated with Emirates hotels, aligning their objectives with the overarching goals of tourism and trade.
In contrast , the aviation policies in Nigeria is characterized by a stance that is unfavorable towards airline operators. Their primary purpose appear to be to impose burdensome taxation on private sector participants in the Nigerian aviation space . The lack of cooperation and collaboration between operators and regulators in the aviation sector hinders progress and the overall welfare of Nigerians. This stands in stark contrast to the United Arab Emirates, where synergy in the sector has led to significant benefits for the people of Dubai.
If Mr Keyamo is supported to implement his four (4) point agenda,one might imagine a scenario in which the Nigerian aviation industry becomes a major contributor to the Nigerian economy, accounting for a larger percentage of GDP than it does in the UAE and other emerging and developed countries.Based on the huge population and market size of Nigeria, aviation should a much bigger contributor to the economy.
In terms of solid minerals, which are expected to replace crude oil as major income earner as fossil fuel is being phased out due to its harmful effect on the climate , the minister in charge of the sector, Mr. Dele Alake, told Nigerians during his introductory news conference that the era of uncoordinated exploration is ended.. “I am giving illegal miners in this country just 30 days of grace to join cooperatives or find another vocation.”
To put his words into action, the minister has pledged to map and track mineral resources by deploying a special law enforcement task force with the goal of restoring order in the mining of the abundant gems ranging from uranium for making nuclear bomb to lithium for producing batteries for electric vehicles, as well as gold for the most prized objects and ornaments such as jewelry.
In addition to his proposal to establish a task force consisting of all law enforcement agencies under the jurisdiction of the ministry, it would be prudent for him to contemplate the utilization of aerial surveillance through drones and cloud-based technologies as an auxiliary means of identifying and monitoring significant sites containing valuable solid minerals.
Otherwise, our country would suffer the same fate as the Congo, whose landscape has been despoiled by unchecked mining activity since the 1960s and continues to this day.
Given his management experience Mr. Alake cannot afford for Nigeria to repeat the mistakes made in the crude oil exploration sector in Nigeria, where the product was exported out of our nation by big oil exploration corporations without adding value via refining locally as it should .
Since the discovery of crude oil in Nigeria in 1958 in Oloibiri, which is currently located in Bayelsa State in the Niger Delta region,Nigeria has predominantly remained a net exporter of crude oil rather than focusing on refining the products domestically to help improve the Gross National Production, GNP of our country via employment creation and boosting of the economy via value adding activities etc.
At this juncture, l would like to crave the indulgence of readers to allow me deviate a bit from the topic at hand to further reference the oil/gas industry by noting that subsequent to the identification of oil in substantial amounts, exclusive authorization was granted solely to prominent exploration companies such as Shell, Mobil, Chevron, Total, and others, to engage in the exploration of crude oil.
With such exclusive rights, these corporations focused their efforts on major wells while capping the less productive wells that should have gone to the next level of operators such as the likes of Seplat ,Midwest Oil/Gas, Aiteo, etc which are local operators that were empowered during the regime of Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2015) which is more or less 60 years after oil was discovered in 1958.
The initial arrangement of exclusivity to the oil majors was to our country’s detriment and the chagrin of the host communities, who should have been encouraged to form corporative societies through which they might have formed joint ventures with smaller oil firms to exploit the smaller wells and the proceeds of which would have facilitated rapid development of those areas.
If these necessary steps had been taken, the host communities would have directly benefited from the fossil fuel in their land, and the agitation in the Niger Delta, which has been expressed as militancy and enormous oil theft, would not have occurred. Indeed, the region’s corporative societies might have been able to acquire modular refineries, which could have provided jobs for youths who have been deprived of their former means of livelihood, such as fishing and farming , as a result of crude oil exploration, which pollutes their environment by destroying aquatic and marine organisms.
Further more ,the implementation of appropriate and fair engagement strategies with host companies could have mitigated the widespread presence of illicit and rudimentary oil refining devices, which present significant environmental hazards on a global scale. This is particularly relevant given the prevailing climate crisis, which is inflicting extensive damage on humanity by depleting the ozone layer due to the emission of gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect.
Drawing upon the lessons learned from the Niger Delta, where the exclusion of host communities resulted in the escalation of crisis situations, it is imperative that engagement in the business of solid minerals exploration and processing incorporates a minimal requirement of value addition activities such refining of the gemstones.
The implementation of value-added activities related to minerals inside host communities can provide local residents with opportunities for meaningful employment. Additionally, this can contribute to the establishment of peace and harmony within the community. The delegation of trickle-down effects, such as the engagement in contracting and the provision of locally sourced inputs, should also be entrusted to the host communities, in order to foster inclusivity and ensure their active participation in the process.
Currently, Nigeria has surpassed the stage of engaging in agreements characterized by oppressive terms, as exemplified by its experience in the oil business during the late 1950s and early 1960s. Currently, our nation has achieved sovereignty and is no longer under the colonial rule of any other country, as was the case at the time of the discovery of crude oil in 1958.
The sorts of contracts that Nigerian government officials must append their signatures to must be those that meet global best practices and the standards obtainable in the UAE, Europe, North America, and the Far East. Nigeria must end its practice of exporting wealth (raw materials) and importing poverty (processed products). This is the subject of my upcoming book, “Africa: Exporting Wealth, Importing Poverty,” which details how the industrialized and sophisticated societies have been exploiting Africa. As it may be recalled it commenced from the days of embarking on sea expeditions into Africa by Europeans ( Mungo Park etal) in search of our priceless artifacts, natural/agricultural commodities (cash crops) and highly sought solid minerals, that culminated into carting away of our able men and women through slave trade, thereafter evolving into colonialism, neocolonialism, and imperialism currently being perpetuated through unfair trade practices.
I had planned to debut the book during the current United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York, USA. But could not do so owing to the prevailing economic crisis in Nigeria triggered by petrol subsidy and naira subsidy removal.
By God’s grace, I would launch the book during the 2024 UNGA.
In his inaugural speech at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), President Bola Ahmed Tinubu emphasized Africa’s commitment to engaging in negotiations with other nations and continents on a mutually equitable footing.
Our president in his speech presented a set of five concerns pertaining to Africa, with the fourth point specifically addressing the continent’s abundant mineral resources that have enticed European exploration and colonization over several millennia. “The fourth important aspect of global trust and solidarity is to secure the continent’s mineral-rich areas from pilfering and conflict”.
Numerous regions have transformed into subterranean networks of suffering and exploitation. Despite the substantial presence of the United Nations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the nation has endured this situation for several decades. According to President Tinubu“The world economy owes the DRC much but gives her very little.”
The President of Nigeria, who now holds the position of Chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), emphasized the need to eradicate the paradigm of subordinate connections between Africa, particularly Nigeria, and other continents, asserting that it should be relegated to the annals of history, declaring “As for Africa, we seek to be neither appendage nor patron. We do not wish to replace old shackles with new ones.”
President Tinubu’s speech at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) has been widely acclaimed by pundits as an exceptionally meaningful address. And I share the same sentiment. This is due to the fact that the majority of the arguments he presented in his speech were emphasized in my article in my column of 12th September entitled “Africa and the Conflict of ‘Good’ and ‘Bad’ Coups.” The article delved into the issue of military coups d’états in Africa, which serve as a manifestation of Africa’s resolve to eradicate any form of imperialism that has been restraining the continent attaining its potentials.
Back to the issue of ministers being appointed to lead ministries in which they are not experts, the bottom line is that Nigerians who are skeptical about the ability of non-experts in the ministries to which they are assigned to deliver on their mandate must manage their expectations reasonably, rather than despairingly.
Instead of engaging in criticism, a more constructive strategy would involve providing ministers with encouragement and innovative ideas. The recommended approach is aimed at cultivating a positive atmosphere that can enhance the ministers’ motivation and ultimately lead to improved outcomes for the Nigerian population and future generations.
Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst, author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria. To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.

Developing nations do themselves a huge disfavor and injustice by not expanding their analysis and actions with regard to tackling inflation. For some reasons, economic managers in many of such countries stick ardently to the manipulation of interest rates (read interest rate hikes) as sure kryptonite in their bids to destroy the Superman called inflation. Not even the fact that such actions over time have not led to the right results are slowing them down. And there is another downside; raising interest rates spurs economic recessions because what it does very effectively is to slow down economic activities by putting borrowing companies in trouble and discouraging borrowing as interest rates rise. Raising rates also encourage more people with surplus funds to park excess money in banks to earn interest rather than invest in new ventures. Companies tend to lay off staff and shrink operations whenever interest rates rise. Developing countries like Nigeria can ill-afford to increase unemployment rates – by whatever metrics it is measured. But this is exactly what we do.

I am writing today to again bring our attention to the fact that there is new thinking around inflation management. And established nations are already thinking in this direction. rather than merely raising interest rates. To this effect, inflation has receded in many of these countries (the US has been able to depress inflation to 3%, the EU to 5.3% and the UK at 6.8%, while Nigeria still battles at 24.08% as I type this.

Again, I bring to us the work of Isabella Weber. Simon Grothe, in a recent article titled “Isabella Weber Has Neoliberal Economists Running Scared”, has called attention to a truism – that economic managers need to look at the impact of corporate profits on inflation. In Nigeria, one may add that there is a need to consider the actions of middlemen who may take undue advantage of final consumers. In general, one may conclude that this is the time for economic managers to be more empirical, more analytical, more active around tackling inflation. Sitting on our hands waiting for inflation to recede – and it will certainly not as a result of increases in interest rates – will not work. And of course, this means that we have left inflation management to central banks. Inflation is often not just a monetary policy. We need other models. The fact that central banks stepped up to commit to inflation targeting does not mean they alone can do it. Empirically, it is obvious that instruments of monetary policy have been blunt when used for inflation management – especially in developing countries. I believe that this is an obvious point but let’s take some explanation from Dr Weber.

There is something called Seller’s Inflation, and this is a situation where firms systematically pass along the inflationary pressures that they face to the poor final consumer as they occur. This was noticed as a fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, but chances are that it is habitual. Chances are also that the pandemic, the fear, the lockdowns have emboldened businesses as they have seen that they can get away with a lot of things. In countries like Nigeria where the consumer is even more powerless and voiceless, beaten down by the worst pangs of poverty, I believe it is trite that we do a comprehensive study of corporate profits, but not only that that we find ways of looking at the activities of middlemen. For example, there are middlemen in the agric space that buy directly from the farmgate. Some are doing that under the guise of being commodity brokers or exchanges. The Buhari administration tried to enact a law protecting poor farmers from these types of guys by stipulating what volumes could be bought at the farmgate. The idea has not taken root and I have seen the usual suspects poohpoohing Bola Tinubu’s idea of returning commodity boards (who could organize themselves and stand up to these smart alecs). So, in a place like Nigeria, we have to worry about corporate exploitation AND the many shenanigans of smaller entities who gouge prices and make life tougher for the poorest amongst us. If the USA and Europe can do this, why can’t we?  Grohe wrote that the “International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the central banks of the United States (the Federal Reserve) and the Eurozone (the European Central Bank) have published multiple studies addressing Weber’s analysis”.

THE FOUR PHASES OF SELLER’S INFLATION ACCORDING TO WEBER

Quoting Weber/Grothe, the gradual decay occurs as below:

1. Phase one: stability. It’s another day under capitalism. People go to work, make and sell things, their bosses keep some as profit and pay a wage from the rest.

2.  Phase two: impulse. Real shortages in key commodities, the cost of which enter the production of many others, lead to a price shock.

3.  Phase three: pass-through. Firms protect their profit margins from the increased cost of inputs by raising their own prices. Of course, given that capitalist enterprises are hardly charities, they try their utmost to pass along the increased costs to their clientele. Like a hot potato, the price increase is passed from company to company until it ends up in the supermarket as a higher price tag. How do workers get rid of the hot potato? They demand higher wages, in turn, to stabilize their purchasing power in real terms.

4.  Phase four: conflict. Employees fight for higher wages to compensate for losses in purchasing power, which means an increase in costs for companies, which in turn increase prices. Yet by no means is this a conflict on a level playing field, since employees are merely trying to compensate for previous losses in their real wage.

The above analogy is how inflation feeds on itself and when companies begin to pass on more than the increased cost of inflation on them, they could spur a vicious cycle that leads to a spiral of price increases, higher poverty, lower purchasing power, layoffs and unemployment, unsafe societies, and eventual collapse. Developed countries like the US have learnt this for long. They have the experience and the safeguards. They have much better regulation of most of their industries. In Nigeria, we don’t have these. We are therefore far more vulnerable to seller’s inflation.

There’s even another psychology to this. Hear Grothe:

“Moreover, companies can more easily enforce price increases with their customers when the latter are accustomed to hearing about new cost shocks and growing inflationary pressures every day in the media. Some in the American press have labeled this dynamic “excuseflation.” Legendarily, the head of Iron Mountain related in an earnings call in 2018 that he would pray for inflation every day, because it allowed him to push through higher profit rates. He added that his prayer for inflation was, for him, like a “rain dance.”” (This means that he prays for inflation the way traditionalists pray to the god of rain in a drought).

The argument in these ‘smart’ countries have since shifted away from interest rates, or ballooning money supply as a result of money printing – e.g for shocks like COVID-19 – and to the supply side. Economists are now calling for more attention on price-setting mechanics (do we know how prices are set for anything in Nigeria? How scientific? How much information?), and windfall profit taxes (even though this is after the fact).  They have moved away from making a devil out of government expenditure, which are often critical… and remain so for a country like ours.

The ECB president Christine Lagarde recently alluded to the inefficacy of interest rates increases in managing inflation. See She also proffered changes in antitrust laws to reduce incidences of price gouging. See https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/26/ecbs-lagarde-says-interest-rates-to-stay-high-as-long-as-needed-to-defeat-inflation.html. IMF director Gita Gopinath stated in June that profit margins must sink in order to combat inflation, and she encouraged companies to absorb wage increases rather than pass them on to final consumers. Sounds almost socialist, doesn’t it? But this contrarian thinking is what the times require, in my humble opinion.  See https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/06/26/europes-inflation-outlook-depends-on-how-corporate-profits-absorb-wage-gains.

Then there’s the issue of wage increases. The Nigerian Labour Congress has demanded for a minimum wage of N250,000 only. This is the wage that they propose should be paid to the cleaner and other casual workers – at least for those who work for the government at every level. As egregious as that sounds on the surface, labour leaders are quick to remind us that minimum wage in Nigeria – up to the early 1980s – was an equivalent of $250. Today, at N30,000, it is less that $35 and many states have refused to pay! Still, where will the vast majority of employers in Nigeria, who are in the private sector find N250,000 as minimum wage? Even N100,000 is unaffordable, though we must now think about raising wages across the board – even for artisans (yes, they need a much better bargain but usually don’t have representations).

Nigeria is being called to a higher level of thinking at these times. The reforms of the Tinubu administration so far, is a call for serious structural adjustment and an opportunity for this economy to rise from the usual mediocrity that we have known over the years. However, the strident calls for higher wages across the board, is from those who are lucky to have jobs. The vast majority of unemployed, underemployed, hustlers, and casualized workers have no such luxury. Yet, they make up 85% of Nigeria’s working population according to our last labour statistics! To make matters worse, wage increases is deployed by companies against the final consume as higher wage expenses are simply and easily added to the cost of goods and services and the cost passed on to hapless consumers – often with a tidy premium. Continued demands for higher wages – where successful – leads to widening income disparities especially where nobody gets the back of artisans and social security is not robust in a society.

Let me reiterate the conclusions of Thomas Pickety in his 2011 book ‘Capital in the 21^st Century’. Poring over data of more than 200 years, the Nobel Laureate posited that rewards for labour have basically stagnated over a period of more than one century, while the reward for capital has simply skyrocketed. This has also been amplified and complicated by the substitution of labour by capital, through technology. We have seen the systematic digitization of everything. Most offices and factories now need perhaps a fifth of their staff strength of five, ten years ago. Covid-19 made it a lot worse. Humans have been replaced by machines. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning keeps firing on. ChatGPT can now write your CV in 5 seconds, and a proper business proposal in 30 seconds. Who needs a human being? And because of that – for countries like Nigeria – millions more of our people have become desperately poor. We cannot therefore toe the same line as developed countries. Our economy cannot be analysed same as theirs and we cannot be administered with the same elixirs. This is not also a time to lock down government expenditure in the name of targeting inflation. Ours is an economy in dire need of growth and development. Almost every sector needs to be incentivized and injected with fillip for more productivity. Interest rate increases will certainly not work for us. Now is the time to think differently.

May I take this opportunity to reiterate some of the other strategies I had pushed in an earlier article in May 2023 regarding other ideas with slowing down inflation:

1. Moral suasion and logic – Government must speak to inflation and persuade sellers to slow down on price increase so as to prevent an inflation spiral.

2. Arbitrary wage increases must be discouraged even though with recent events a general wage increase has become a fait accompli so as to reduce poverty.

3. Target food inflation (the chief driver of our inflation in Nigeria), by direct provision of rural infrastructure to aid farmers and reduce their costs.

4. Better regulate the activities of middlemen especially in the agric sector, as part of Tinubu administration strategy on food security. Also hasten institution of commodity boards and exchanges and the policy limiting how much can be bought at the farmgate (as is done in South Africa among others).

5. Better administration around government revenues will help haul in more money for infrastructure and close income disparity gap. This will also reduce inflation as less money is available for frivolous purchases. Also, better fiscal discipline will help greatly for its signaling effect on the general ecoomy.

6. Effective policies around foreign exchange and importation. Citizens should be encouraged to buy local and this must start from the top. This will help stave off ‘imported inflation’ to a great extent, and keep the money ‘within the family’ – circulation within Nigeria.

7. Manage and ‘reduce’ expectations by media and public engagements that cleverly inform the public that things will get better.

8. Promote work, savings, and investments – Increased labor supply, capital supply, productivity, and personal savings can help to reduce inflationary pressures. This is because the focus will be on general economic growth – a case of everybody getting lifted by the rising tide.

9. Government must also do what it can to influence general price levels within its purview. This includes helping to lower energy costs by promoting alternative sources of efficient energy. Even in the US and other developed nations, energy cost is one of those costs that permeate into every other price increase, and a good excuse for spiking inflation. It needs to be wrestled down. Further, the government must urgently deal with insecurity which adds considerably to the final prices that consumers pay for everything. Reducing tariffs on essentials, promoting local production of basic essentials, and import substitution as well as a focus on infrastructure – like roads, rail systems and inland waterways – helps to reduce cost of transportation of people and goods, and thus sellers have fewer excuses to keep increasing prices in the name of recovering costs. Also, communication has been inefficient. Governments usually forget to link infrastructure to the lowering of inflation. They forget to ask citizens to take a medium to long-term view of their efforts as part of the expectation management strategy.

Since 6 September when the Presidential Election Petitions Tribunal, PEPT that commenced hearing on 8 May gave their verdict aimed at resolving the disputes arising from the 25 February 2023 presidential elections, most Nigerians have been scratching their heads in confusion as they attempt to decipher the judgement that was rendered in legal jargons.

The aim is to simplify the verdict by stripping it of the mumbo jumbo that members of the legal profession
usually apply in conveying their rulings.
That is necessary for majority of Nigerians to understand and reach their conclusions on whether justice had been done based on the strict application of the principles of administration of Justice.

So, the verdict is being explained with the simplest terms for the easy understanding of the masses who need to be carried along in the spirit of inclusivity.

As it may be recalled the petitions were filled by three (3) of the eighteen (18) political parties that contested the election.
And the aggrieved parties that approached the PEPT are Peoples Democratic Party,PDP, Labor Party, AP, and Allied Peoples Movement,APM.

All the three petitioners are advancing different reasons for seeking the nullification of the 2023 presidential election and the reversal of the declaration by the lndependent National Electoral Commission,INEC that the APC candidate,Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the winner of the contest and therefore the president of Nigeria which is a role that he is currently playing dexterously to the chagrin of the opposition.

To simplify the issues that PEPT had to adjudicate upon and their verdict,this piece will outline them, item by item for easy understanding of the masses.

Hopefully, if it is not too much to ask the judiciary, it would serve the best interest of the masses,if it would render a version of the ruling in the language that the hoi-poloi can easily comprehend.
And better still if media outfits that present news in pidgin English,such as the British Broadcasting Corporation,BBC would also break the judgement down for the understanding of the masses to prevent them from being manipulated by those known for engaging in disinformation.

Now,the grounds for seeking the nullification of the election of President Bola Tinubu from APM’s prism is that then vice presidential candidate ,Senator Kashim Shettima,Tinubu’s running mate was nominated twice as a senator and vice presidential candidate,which is in breach of Electoral Act 2022.

Unfortunately for APM and PDP that petitioned on that ground, there is an established Supreme Court ruling that has made it clear that issues around nomination of candidates for elections are pre-election matters and the PEPT’s mandate is for post election matters. The petition was therefore dismissed for lack of merit.

With respect to the LP which accused the INEC of massively rigging the presidential election in favor of APC and her candidate president Tinubu,the party could not present incontrovertible evidence to that effect as required by law.

Rather it’s allegation turned out to be based on mere emotions as no credible witnesses,particularly party agents who should have showed up with proof of evidence in the form of original results sheets in their respective polling units,a copy of which by INEC guidelines and Electoral Act 2022,party agents are supposed to be in possession.

Instead of hard evidence,rumors and third party materials sourced sometimes from the internet, including the report of international election monitors of the 2023 elections were tendered as evidence. And the alleged non reliance on results uploaded on lReV- INEC electronic portal was also held up as evidence against the authenticity of the election of president Tinubu.

By and large ,LP could not prove its case because plea was unsubstantiated with admissible evidence and the Electoral Act 2022 does not demand that elections results are only authentic if they are obtained from Biometric Accreditation and Verification System,BVAS and passed through IReV portal as LP had argued before the PEPT.

Ideally,the international observers report which was tendered as evidence ought to have been submitted directly by them,as opposed to sourcing the report that LP presented as a third party,perhaps without the express consent of the authors of the report.

Also,downloading from online sources the Form EC8 A that it claimed to have been mutilated by riggers failed to pass the rule of due diligence because they were sourced online, instead of hard copies coming from party agents who are by lNEC guidelines and Electoral Act 2022 supposed to be in possession of such documents.

The letter and spirit of law of our country is that the onus is on the accuser to prove his/her allegations against the defendant.
In the absence of that and
on the above stated grounds,the LP petition was declared as lacking merit and dismissed by PEPT.

Regarding the PDP,the authenticity of President Tinubu’s degree from Chicago State University,CSU which the party and the Presidential candidate,Turaki Atiku Abubakar claim is fake,is the ground for seeking the disqualification of Asiwaju Tinubu as presidential candidate.

That is coupled with the allegation that President Tinubu was also criminally indicted in the United States of America, USA via confiscation of $460 belonging to him by US authorities,which if it were to be true,would have contravened the rules in Nigerian statutes book with respect to being eligible to contest for the office of the president.

Whereas it is the right of the petitioners to make the allegations, they are patently false because the CSU has confirmed that Tinubu attended the university and earned a bachelors degree in 1979 which he tendered to INEC.
In addition,the US authorities have also via her embassy in Nigeria since 2003 stated that President Tinubu has no criminal records in that country as being alleged by his traducers.

So,PEPT also dismissed PDP’s petition on the ground that it is without merit.

To think that after all the hype by three (3) petitioners that they were holding President Tinubu by the jugular, PEPT has declared that their claims are all fantasy and without basis in law, is stunning to me and such an anticlimax in the drama of presidential election 2023.

What it suggests is that the fifteen (15 ) other parties that took part in the contest and accepted their defeat are indeed much more savvy than the big three (3) that decided to throw the gauntlet by proceeding to the PEPT with gusto and fanfare. That is because after all the grandstanding their case ended up literally in a puff of smoke .

One is embarrassed on behalf of the heavy weights in the legal profession, parading perhaps up to a total of fifty (50) Senior Advocates of Nigeria,SAN,if indeed they have only been on a journey of discovery,and fishing as PEPT aptly put it,after the four(4) months(8 May to 6 September) that it took to deliberate on the matter.

In a manner reminiscent of holding onto straw,some supporters of the petitioners have alleged that the (eighty)80 page verdict had the water mark/imprimatur of APC,as such it was written by the APC legal team for PEPT.
How ridiculous!

Glaringly,they are chasing shadows instead of controverting the ruling of the PEPT adjudicators that the claim of massive rigging of the election by INEC in favor of APC and President Tinubu lacked merit basically because the petitioners failed to produce evidence to support their claims.

Rather,their claim of victory over the declared winner,President Bola Tinubu which was based on mere emotions and sheer intimidation as opposed to relying on the presentation of incontrovertible facts presented before the judges to substantiate their allegations, as ruled by the PEPT jurists remain unchallenged.

Fair enough, and as a redeeming factor,the petitioners have fourteen (14) days to challenge the ruling of the PEPT by proceeding to the Supreme Court.
That is counting from the 6th of September when the verdict was given.

Would the combatants slugging it out with INEC and APC in the tribunal which they alleged had robbed them of victory still continue on the same trajectory of having the expectations that they would prevail in the matter based on emotions rather than on points of law which is usually the determinant of who looses and wins in law courts,even in the Supreme Court that may look beyond undiluted application of the law?

Clearly, it is based on that premise that the judgement of PEPT which is contrary to the expectations of the petitioners that they would prevail by relying on emotions and intimidation which are the currency of transactions in the court of public opinion,rather than points of law which deal with facts and figures such as hard evidence that are the guardrail and fulcrum for the administration of justice.

So,in the event that they head to the apex court ,they would be counting on being helped by public opinion based on the negative sentiments that have been wiped up against the incumbent president that they expect may swing the pendulum in their favor in light of the fact that in the Supreme Court other factors beyond pure legal principles are considered.

While those assessing the judgment from the prism of emotions allege that there are inconsistencies in the election tribunal’s decisions ,those applying the lenses of intimidation,have equally been cooking up conspiracy theories against the judges on the tribunal to fault their judgement.

But,it would appear as if the PEPT envisaged that their verdict would be subjected to severe public scrutiny.
That is in view of the hoopla and negative sentiments that had been stirred up against the judiciary and in particular the five judges that make up the tribunal.

Hence the judgement was announced by the adjudicator publicly via live television broadcast and online streaming of the judgement to any and everyone all over the world keen on being fully abreast of political developments in Nigeria.

Notably,the false claim was dismissed by responsible members of the public because it has remained un authenticated and therefore figment of the imagination of the authors that the Chief Justice of Nigeria,CJN Justice Olukayode Ariwoola secretly met with President Tinubu in London while he was president- elect and that a justice amongst the team of five judges that are part of the tribunal had resigned in protest against being pressured to compromise the judgement, including the “Eyes on Judiciary” campaign in the social media which was later shifted to the traditional media space before it was sanctioned by relevant authorities after the judicial complaint that it was an act of intimidation.

Unlike the judgements by the Supreme Court in 2008 declaring Rotimi Amaechi as the winner of the governorship election in Rivers state held in 2007 when he was not on the ballot for the main contest after being delisted from INEC list,even though he had earlier won the party’s primary election; and another Supreme Court judgement in favor of senator Hope Uzodiinma that made him the current governor of lmo state by counteracting the decision of INEC that had placed him as 4th runner up amongst the contestants for the governorship role and declared Emeka Ihiedoha the governor.

These are judgements that were so opaque that it put the judiciary in the eye of the storm.

Perhaps ,it is owing to the bitter lessons from that experience that the PEPT decided to be very transparent in its current judgement by highlighting all the points of law applied and citing precedents to arrive at its verdict on election 2023.

Commendably, in order to put everyone on the same page,PEPT decided to transmit its ruling live and direct to the homes of all Nigerians that may be interested in hearing the verdict first hand via live television broadcast and streaming to anyone in the world that has interest in Nigeria’s political developments.

The targeted audience includes the numerous election observers from across the world who were in Nigeria to monitor the exercise and had subsequently offered their opinions after the 2023 electioneering process .

The life broadcast and streaming which took several hours to deliver, some say a better part of thirteen (13 ) hours stretching from dawn to dusk and with all the judges on the tribunal taking turns to read the verdict is unprecedented and therefore a master stroke by the judiciary in my judgement.

Apparently, it was intentional and meant to cure the mutual suspicion between the judiciary that has been resenting the intimidation and the opposition politicians who had wiped up negative sentiments that had cast slur on its integrity.

As a panacea to the mutual suspicion,l had written piece titled: “Judiciary On Trial’:Televising Tribunal Proceedings To The Rescue? “ published in my column on 16 May in which l argued that televising the proceedings would be the way out for all the parties after the PDP and APC demanded and the Nigerian Bar Association,NBA endorsed the demand.

As l wrote back then in my column and which was widely published on other traditional as well as online media platforms:
“At inception of the outgoing administration,the third (3) branch of government (judiciary) had appeared like the last bastion as it had remained in large part untainted.
“But after a short period,it wilted owing to the onslaught by the executive arm through undue interference that has blighted it to the extent that most Nigerians no longer see it as infallible and unbiased.
“And it is precisely why the judiciary is now on ‘trial’ which is such an irony because it
used to be law breakers that would be on trial by the judiciary.”

But the court ruled against televising the process for the simple reason that the tribunal is not a theatre for drama.

At the time that the courts made the ruling,the justification was not quite clear. So,it was not welcome by a significant number of the masses, especially because the proceedings by the panel on Human Rights Violation Investigation Commission, popularly known as OPUTA panel, (because it was headed by retired Justice Chukwudifu Oputa) was transmitted live.

Amongst the many high-points/ drama was that Gens. Muhamadu Buhari, Ibrahim Babangida,and Sani Abacha, past military heads of state who were accused of committing some of the rights violations were subpoenaed to appear before the panel but failed to do so ,without any consequences.

It is fascinating that in the case of the PEPT, while the defendants APC and its presidential candidate Asiwaju Bola Tinubu has 12 SANs in a legal team of 50 lawyers,the PDP petitioners features a team made up of 17 SANs,and LP fielded 12 SANs while lNEC has 9 SANs with APM having at least one, which brings the number to a total of at least 50 SANs.

The unprecedented convergence of 50 SANs for a single matter,which is a harvest of senior legal minds in our country is monumental and epochal.

And the PEPT made up for denying Nigerians the pleasure of watching the legal theatrics live on television by making them watch at least 12 hours of the ‘learned’ gentle men of the bar sleep and even snore in the course of delivering the Judgement.

If the event was not about a very serious matter with implications that can make or mar our nation , l would have tagged it an adult version of ‘ Big Brother’ which is a live television show where some of our youths are confined in a house for 90 days (3 months) living a communal live in the full glare of the public via live television broadcast.

Before dwelling further on the offensive and defensive fallouts of 2023 presidential elections petitions tribunal,it is imperative that the 97 million Nigerian electorate who collected their Permanent Voters Cards,PVS and the 37 million who eventually exercised their civic duty of voting for their choice of president on 25 February are commended for their patience and understanding by waiting for the tribunal up to give their verdict on 6 September (better part of six (6) months) about who truly won the mandate to become the President of Nigeria.

One only needs to consider the peaceful atmosphere prevailing in Nigeria (except a few incendiary comments by the aggrieved) since the election was held some six (6) months ago,compared to the mayhem that took place in Kenya in 2007/2008 and other African countries after their general elections where significant number of innocent lives were lost owing to crisis after election results were announced triggering violence: to appreciate why Nigerian electorate needs to be commended for exemplary conduct of Nigerian voters.

That is simply because aggrieved voters in the aforementioned countries had taken the laws into their hands instead of allowing the rule of law to prevail,as we have impressively done in Nigeria through the PEPT process that ended on 6 September.

The preemptive actions of the security agencies,particularly the Department of State Security, DSS has also helped in maintaining the stability in the country by paying attention to the maintenance of security and safety in these turbulent times.

Fortunately, our country’s 1999 constitution as amended and the Electoral Act 2022 made provision for those not satisfied with the PEPT verdict to advance their case to the Supreme Court.

As we may recall,eighteen (18) political parties were involved in the 2023 general elections contest that started in 25 February and ended on 18 March of this year.
Of the 18 parties,three,PDP, LP and APM proceeded to the tribunal to challenge the victory of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC as the winner of the presidential contest.

To contextualize the current situation,it would further help if we unpack the issues in contention strictly from the optics of point of Law ,Emotions and lntimidation.

And the practice in the USA would be the benchmark for this analysis because that is the origin of the presidential system of government in practice in our country.

After the unprecedented 12-13 hours long judgement of 6 September which commenced by 10am and ended very late into the night with the five( 5) judges taking turns to read the 800 pages long judgement full of legal jargons,my intention in this presentation is to try to break down the PEPT verdict for the better understanding of the ‘unlearned’ people amongst us,since lawyers are good at referring to themselves as ‘learned’ gentlemen/ladies.

On point of law,the judgement from the five (5) man PEPT seemed to be pretty straight forward, so much so that the PEPT judges lampooned the lawyers who took the brief from the political parties to argue what they pointed out as mostly issues that had been settled by the Supreme Court rulings in the past.

Amongst these are the requirement for a candidate to be deemed to have won the presidential contest only if he has garnered twenty five (25%) or two third (2/3) majority of votes in the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory,FCT.

Being that our presidential system of government is modeled after that of the United States of America,USA ,the 2/3rd majority votes proviso in our 1999 constitution can be said to be a Nigerian variant of the US electoral college system .

Historically,after the electoral college system produced results that led to ties in presidential contests that produced unsavory outcomes which complicated the presidential system,it was decided that it had to be untangled by correcting the identified imperfections.
Hence there had to be a 23rd amendment of the US constitution in 1961.

That amendment allowed electoral college delegates to be assigned to Washington, DC (the capital of the US) which hitherto had no delegates and it is analogous to the FCT,Abuja which is Nigeria’s capital.

The point here is that in the US,Washington, DC that hitherto never had electoral college delegates,it was allowed in 1961 to be upgraded to a state level with same status as the 50 other states.

And it was done in response to complications in previous presidential elections,similar to the type currently being experienced in Nigeria whether the question of 2/3rd majority votes in the FCT has thrown up the challenge on if it is a state or a jurisdiction with special privileges.

If the current PEPT judgement is affirmed by the Supreme Court, the ball would be in the court of the legislators of the 10th National Assembly to finally untangle the web by clarifying the true status of Abuja without further ambiguity,so that the crisis would not reoccur in the future.

While the lawmakers are at it,they should also take note that although it became statutory for delegates to be appointed in Washington, DC, which is the capital territory,it was stated categorically that the number of delegates for Washington, DC must be less than the number presented by the states with the least number of delegates.

My interpretation of the clarification of the status of Washington,DC which is the equivalent of the FCT is that it does not posses the status of a state.
Rather it is inferior to it.
Hence it is not addressed as a state,and it has no governor, state legislature or other paraphernalia of a state.

That being the case,the crisis of whether wining 2/3rd majority of the votes from the FCT is a requirement for a candidate to have fulfilled all the requirements to become a president in Nigeria appear to have been settled by the PEPT.
Again,that is if the decision is affirmed by the Supreme Court.

Meanwhile, following the PEPT ruling,the indigenes of the FCT are allegedly agitating that they should be granted the status of a state,complete with a governor,three (3) senators,house of representatives members and all the privileges accorded a state.

Against the backdrop of what obtains in the US ,the source of Nigeria’s presidential system,the demand for the FCT attaining a full state status ,if it is real, appears to be sheer acts of rabble rousing and nonsensical.

Also the failure to meet some basic points of law by some of the plaintiffs, particularly the LP that needed to prove their allegations of massive rigging nationwide by INEC in favor of then presidential candidate Tinubu is a great disappointment to most Nigerians, particularly the youth.

But based on the legal dictum: “he who alleges must prove’ which is underscored by evidence act,contrary to the expectations of the youths that constitute the bulk of LP supporters ,the petitioner’s lawyers failed to present hard evidence to the PEPT.

From my finding,to prove that an election was rigged is a gigantic task. It is like passing the Carmel’s head through the eye of a needle.That is because of the huddles inherent in the 1999 constitution of our country that a petitioner has to scale to proof that a presidential election was rigged.

The bottlenecks include the requirement that the party and the presidential candidate making the allegation of massive rigging must produce in court party agents as witness from the polling units in 774 local governments in the country within a very short space of time,which is the provision in the statutes books.
The total number of party agents that would be required to testify is estimated to be 133,000.

To put in context how difficult it can be ,if not impossible to prove that a presidential election was massively rigged as alleged by LP,imagine being asked by a quiz panel not just to tell the date that the famous Titanic (British luxury passenger liner) sank,but also to name the 1,496 people that were onboard the ship in one minute.
That would be a mission impossible because of the tightness of time ,right ?

In my reckoning that is the equivalent of attempting to prove that a presidential election was rigged entails in a Nigerian election petition tribunal.

For crying out loud ,how would a petitioner produce 133,000 party agents with potent material evidence within the window of one week to back the claim that elections were rigged massively as the LP has alleged ?

Being aware of the high hurdles to scale and realizing that getting the evidence from party agents is unattainable simply because gathering 133,000 party agents together in one place to testify is literally an impossible feat,why did the LP embark on what apparently is a wild goose chase?

Is it an antic to sustain the momentum by getting the party supporters riled up
as they get pumped up with expectations and hope that they are on the cusp of ‘reclaiming their mandate’ and as such continue to be upbeat until the activities dovetail into the next election circle ?

By the same token,the allegation by APM that Senator Kasim Shetima contested for two positions by obtaining and returning forms for both senatorial contest and the running mate to the presidential candidate of the APC Senator Bola Tinubu,the PEPT held that it was a pre election matter which had been overtaken by events and therefore irrelevant basically because what the PEPT was mandated to address are post election matters.

With the abundance of jurisprudence on pre and post election matter, why did the lawyers embark on the mission?
Is it also with a view to remain relevant in the scheme of things?

Also, the PDP and its presidential candidate’s legal battle with Chicago State University,CSU, (the alma mata of President Tinubu) in the quest to obtain his degree certificate and school record looked like it would be a big bang.

But that has also turned out to be another antithesis of sorts with the university confirming that President Tinubu is a bonafide alumnus of the institution.

And to booth, it has also been made clear that the university was barred by law from disclosing the personal record of president Tinubu or any other student that acquired education in from the US system without his/her consent,unless compelled by the law courts.

For instance l know that l can not have access to the academic records of my adult children in school in the US,if they choose not to share them with me. That is because the school authorities would not avail me of their records if they do not give the required authorization.

It is the same same letter and spirit that drives confidentiality for students and their institutions of learning that applies to doctor/patient relationship and banker/customer relationship.

So why was there so much song and dance about CSU not releasing President Tinubu’s diploma (degree certificate) which is clearly against the US law?
And why did it take so long for it to dawn on the very erudite and notable PDP legal team that should have partnership with US lawyers that are conversant with the system ? Perhaps in the euphoria of the political season, that basic information must have skipped their mind.

Is it a mere oversight or something they were aware of, yet they decided to stir up tension in the already very volatile polity by making a mountain out of a mole hill?

To serve as deterrent to the politicians who are not sportsmanly enough to accept defeat without heating up the polity and lawyers that enjoy embracing what l would like to term legal adventurism,the PEPT should have fined the three (3) political parties for filing frivolous petitions and also sanctioned the lawyers for not advising their clients appropriately.

Regarding the intimidation element,as is
typical of the realities of life, while the main opposition PDP has an albatross that goes by the name Nyesom Wike hanging over it menacingly like a nemesis , the LP has the burden of Lamidi Apapa, a faction chairman of the party that the OBIDIENTs passionately despise to contend with.

And the publicity secretary of the embattled chairman’s faction of the LP Dr Arabambi,did not fail to seize the opportunity to extract a pound of flesh by making disparaging comments about the LP: “How does anyone claim to have won an election based solely on pejoratives, assumptions,vague rhetorics and zero evidence pointing to such as being the case,but in the expectation that the actual winner would be disqualified and by some stroke of black magic the candidate in the 3rd place would suddenly be declared winner without proof of having scored the majority is absolute rascality on display by Peter Obi and Julius Aburi”.

The lamidi Apapa’s jab at LP ties in smugly with the position of the Nobel laureate, Prof Wole Soyinka, who in far away South Africa ,while attending an event held in his honor last week had accused LP members of knowing that their 2023 presidential candidate,Mr Peter Obi did not win the contest,but elected to claim that he had won and was thus engaging in what he termed ‘Gbajue’ which is a Yoruba euphemism for intimidation of both the judges and Nigerian masses that do not agree with them.

The social critic who had earlier in the year faced-off with the OBIDIENTs, (LP devotees) that have the penchant for literally ‘roasting’ anyone that makes any statement contrary to their belief that LP and her candidate won the presidential contest,had held up a television station in south west Nigeria in 1965 in the bid to prevent the announcement of an election result that he believed was rigged:

“They were going to send some of the hardliners, proud young people into the street to demonstrate,” he said.

“I’m also ready to be among such demonstrators but only on the banner of truth not on lies, and deceit” he concluded .

Prof Soyinka’s explanation that there is a difference between his action some 58 trees ago and the acts of intimidation that the OBIDIENTs are currently being accused of engaging in,did not cut the ice with the LP devotees.

So,the erudite scholar, poet and human rights activist was counter accused of being a hypocrite by his traducers.

Who else to lead the charge than the national publicity secretary of LP, Mr Obiora Ifoh who fired back a nasty salvo:

“The whole world followed the 2023 general election in Nigeria and there was a global condemnation of not only the outcome of the election but also the process, particularly, the ‘glitching’ incidence that occured only during the transmission of presidential result to IREV. As someone who is known to demonstrate based on truth, we didn’t hear as much as a whisper from Kongi reminding INEC that it has to stand by its word”.

Again,in my view,a war of words is far better than the shedding of blood that trails violent clashes which was witnessed in 2011 in Nigeria and has been experienced at a much bigger scale in other jurisdictions in east Africa in particular.

To be frank,the exchange of hot words between the victors and losers in the INEC declared result is part of politics and in consonance with the popular mantra: ‘let us Jaw- jaw instead of war-war’.

As is typical of the experience of those who cross the paths of OBIDIENTs and are compelled to cross swords with them,the spat has generated a very high decibel of noises in the social media,as the hyper energetic and combat ready (youths and the young at heart) on both sides have been engaging in war of words featuring massive exchange of bile and expletives.

Prof Soyinka in his snide and highly combustible remark about the LP was also denouncing them for their alleged attempt to intimidate the five (5) judges appointed into the PEPT via their ‘Eyes On Judiciary’
blitzkrieg that was banned for placement in the mainstream media by Nigeria’s advertising regulatory authorities for the basic reason that it is in breach of the extant laws guiding advertising.

It was held by the advertising regulatory agency that authorized the removal of the massive billboards that had gotten erected in strategic locations in Abuja where the PEPT was conducting its business of adjudicating on elections 2023, that it was indeed an act of intimidation as the judiciary had deemed it.

Clearly there are lots of blame to go round to all the stake holders in the 2023 general elections ranging from INEC’s promise to adopt technology in conducting the election which it failed to deliver on; the legislators failure to tie the loose ends in the Electoral Act 2022 by not definitively stating wether reliance on electronic transfer of election results via the INEC on-line real-time platform,IReV was mandatory, sacrosanct,obligatory,but made it optional. And thus conferred too much power on lNEC ( without oversight from the executive, legislative or judicial branches of government) in a matter of such critical importance to the stability of our country.

As it may be recalled,after the back and forth movements that the updated Electoral Act 2022 was subjected to between the president who refused to append his signature to the first version and the legislators who were initially reluctant to accept that the result would only be transmitted electronically for it to be deemed as authentic,before they eventually left it open,one would have thought that the new version of the rules guiding elections was water tight.

But with the PEPT ruling on the petitions by LP and PDP, it is clear that the option that was left to INEC to use its discretion to exercise is the source of the acrimonious contentions playing out in the elections tribunals.

And it would be a source of future political acrimony, if politicians suspect that the next occupier of the INEC chairman seat may not be impartial. Hence the Electoral Act 2022 needs to be revisited by the 10th National Assembly.

Invariably,it means that the job of the 10th national assembly is well cut out for it as the loose ends of the Electoral Act 2022 must be tied up tightly before 2027 elections season commences.

Should the petitioners decide to proceed to the Supreme Court to continue their challenge of the victory of President Tinubu as they have vowed to, apart from enriching the lawyers,(although some are carrying out the assignment pro bono) Nigeria’s jurisprudence would also be enriched.

Although the courts do not grant prayers that are not made by a petitioner, hence sanctions were not meted out by PEPT to INEC executives that over promised and under delivered based on their consistent avowals to transmit results from the polling units to its database,and subsequently upload all the results into the IReV for the viewing pleasure of every member of the public interested: and which inspired hitherto disillusioned Nigerians to obtain the PVC and vote; perhaps the demand that INEC executives be sanctioned would be made in the new plea by the petitioners,assuming they elect to proceed to the Supreme Court.

Whatever the case may be,it should be clear to even the blind and deaf that President Tinubu has made history by emerging as the president of Nigeria against all the odds fashioned against him on his way to Aso Rock Villa.

For those of us who believe in God or higher powers as the case may be ,President Tinubu’s ascendancy to the presidency of Nigeria in 2023 ,appears to me as a settled and irreversible matter.

So my candid advice is that the opposition parties should start preparing for 2027 which is the next season of general elections in Nigeria.

That is because above all else,and to the best of my knowledge,none of the petitioners has been able to make a successful plea that the election did not meet the substantial compliance threshold which is a very key criteria that must be met for an election to be declared credible as stated in Nigeria’s statutes book.

And that being the case,the earlier the opposition parties start getting used to the reality that President Tinubu is here for the long haul and join him in bringing succor to the long suffering Nigerians who can not wait for his Renewed Hope agenda to start yielding dividends so that they can exhale, the better.

Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
To continue with this conversation and more ,please visit www.magnum.ng

Can the current raft of coup de-tats in Africa be a signal to the end of imperialism in the continent?
That is the question on the lips of most keen watchers of progress in Africa since the continent got partitioned by thirteen (13) European countries and the United States of America,USA during the Berlin, Germany partitioning of Africa in 1884/85 under the chairmanship of Otto Von Bismarck,then leader of Germany.

Before dwelling on what and who triggered the rush to Africa by European adventurers,which is her wealth in natural resources,it is appropriate that we dig a bit into some facts and fictions about Africa.
That is because those factors have remained significant components of the narrative about the continent which has continued to be the least developed amongst the seven (7) continents in the world, in-spite of the fact that she has the most natural resources.

Since the unfortunate military coup d’tat in Niger Republic on the 26th of July and another coup that was staged in Gabon on the 30th of August,there has been a deluge of commentaries about the unfortunate deceleration of democracy in the continent of Africa.

So, in deviation from the path already well trodden by the multiplicity of commentators on the matter,l would like to crave the indulgence of readers to allow me discuss the epidemic of coups currently ravaging the continent of Africa from the prism of international relations which is right down my alley,since it is my core area of academic studies.

To cast our minds beyond the coups which are actually symptoms of the disruption, disorganization and destruction via fragmentation of the core fabric of Africa by European invaders who divided up our continent as far back as 1884/5 during the infamous Berlin conference,which is about 130 years ago; we have to go back to the origin of our continent which was defined by the tongues,tribes and cultures of the people ,not the artificial borders drawn up by the colonialists that carved up the continent into multiple countries to suit their whims and caprices.

To do that comprehensively,we have to get down to the brass tacks by looking at both the mythologies and realities that have been prevailing in Africa.

In particular,king Mansa Musa,the 14th century ruler of ancient Mali empire who traveled to Mecca on religious pilgrimage,in a convoy of horses and Carmel’s loaded with gold,out of which he gifted so much to new friends that he met along the way during his trip,triggered the interest of Europeans adventurers,whom it had dawned on,that Africa must be very rich in natural resources,particularly rare and precious gemstones such as gold and other ornaments.

That is what is believed to have triggered the rush by Europeans into Africa in search of the gold that King Mansah Musa had doled out lavishly and which culminated into their colonizing the continent after they entered under the guise of religious evangelism,whereas their motives was to strip Africa of her enormous natural resource and wealth.

Staying in the arena of rumor in Africa ,the recently deposed president of the natural resources endowed nation,Gabon was back in 2015 purported to be an lgbo man from the eastern flanks of Nigeria, particularly from Owerri in lmo state.

The rumor emanated from the PM News of 13th November 2015 which reported it as front page news.
The same unsubstantiated news was also reported by an online news platform, Sahara Reporters which claimed that Ali Bongo was an adopted son of late president Omar Bongo of Gabon.

As the conspiracy theory goes,the Elder Bongo who didn’t have a male child and had to adopt Ali when he (Ali) along with other war ravaged children were airlifted from Uli airstrip near Owerri,the lmo state capital,during the Nigerian civil war that took place between 1967 and 1970.

While it is true and on record that the Red Cross,a global humanitarian agency had made efforts to save the innocent children that were the most vulnerable victims of the Biafran war and were suffering from kwashiorkor by airlifting them to Libreville, the Gabonese capital,there is no record of Ali Bongo’s adoption by the late Omar Bongo.

Rumors aside,what is not in doubt is that France took over the rulership of crude oil and manganese rich Gabon in 1885 and started administering her in 1903.

At this juncture,it is worth taking note of the fact that France took over Gabon right after Africa was partitioned by European invaders in the year 1884/5 during the infamous and ignoble Berlin,Germany conference which happened without Africa being invited to the meeting that was held in the better part of three (3) months where she was carved up and shared amongst strangers.

The telltale there is that if you connect the dots,it would be clear that France has been involved in the administration of Gabon since its founding,yet the country has been suffering from arrested development.

In the course of this discourse,we will return to the origin and consequences of the disruption of life in Africa by Europeans by way of their redefining African boundaries resulting in cousins being separated by the artificial borders created by Europeans.

An active instance can be found in
the northern parts of Nigeria where most of them are reluctant to go to war against Niger Republic junta in compliance with the ECOWAS plan to invade the Nigerian neighbor following the military coup that toppled a democratically elected president and government.
That is simply because most of those across the border in Niger Republic are cousins to Nigerians from the states contiguous to their common borders.

Were it not for European invasion,most Nigerians in the north and Niger Republic indigenes would remain in same country as kith and kins.

But for now,it is pertinent that we delve into the reason that Europe has continued to be disruptive to the growth and development of Africa pre and post colonialism and even in current times through nuanced empire building antics.

For instance, after granting Gabon independence in August 1960,France has continued to tele-guide the country by tying her finances to French west African currency CFA (Communante Financial d’Afrique) translated as Financial Community of Africa ,under the auspices of West African Economic And Monetary Union,which is managed from Paris by France.

Records from imf.org indicate that the Financial Community of Africa also known as CFA is a financial instrument with which France has been controlling the economies and destinies of fourteen (14) independent African nations,eight (8) of which were formerly her colonies.

Incidentally,the 14 countries under the apron strings of France include Niger republic where the military had on 26 July toppled the elected president.
lt was barely one month after,30 August that another military coup took place in Gabon which is another French enclave.

The significant rise in the number of coups in Africa,leading to the take over by the military of seven(7) countries that were under democratic governance since 2020, ranging from Burkina Faso,Guinea Bissau, Mali ,Chad, Sudan,Niger and Gabon has prompted the Economic Community of West African States,ECOWAS to take the hard stance of stemming the tide before it becomes contagious.

That is why the new ECOWAS chairman and President of Nigeria,Bola Ahmed Tinubu in concert with the leadership of the regional body declared that the toppled president Mohamed Bazoun must be restored back to office.
For existential reasons,the enforcement of the order has proven to be quite difficult to implement.

But while the coupists in Niger Republic got an ultimatum (which they have flouted) to restore the mandate of the ousted president Mohamed Bazoun or face the wrought of ECOWAS forces that may intervene to enforce the order,the coup plotters in Gabon were not given the same marching order to restore Ali Bongo as president and quit the scene or be forced to do so by military force.

That differentiation in approach to resolving the coups in both Niger Republic and Gabon that occurred within a space of one month(26 July -30th August),has compelled some political aficionados to define both coups as ‘good’ and ‘bad’ coup.

The answer to how and why two (2) coups d’tats can be defined as ‘bad’ and ‘good’ could be found in Africa’s history of exploitation by Europeans dating back to 130 years ago since the partitioning of the continent in Berlin,Germany in 1884/5.

Before delving into the nitty gritty, presumably,it would be easily discernible to keen observers why the coup that toppled Bazoun of the nation of Niger that had not completed his term,but was in the nascent stages before he was ousted can be seen as ‘bad’ coup; but Mr Bongo that had tweaked with the status book of his country to self perpetuate for a third term even after his family has been ruling the country for about 56 years,is being deemed as a ‘good’ coup.

But before attending to the question on whether Military Coups in Africa are becoming death knell for neo-colonialism which is the kernel of the matter at hand, let us take a critical look at the implications of the most recent two (2) coups in the west African region that have become a huge burden,if not a sort of albatross on the leadership of ECOWAS which was thrust on Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu.

As we may recall ,after barely two months of mounting the throne at Aso Rock Villa seat of presidential power on 29 May 2023,and a little more or less than three (3) weeks after he accepted the baton of leadership as chairman of ECOWAS,he got swamped by a plethora of foreign policy challenges.
These include addressing the fall outs of the two coups which occurred on 26 July and 30 August respectively and aligning Nigeria with the emerging power blocks,especially the G-20 which is a body of countries that control the levers of power of economic and political affairs of the world.

So,untangling the web of coups in Africa that date back as far as 1963 when the first successful military coup was staged in Togo wherein President Sylvanus Olympio was assassinated has become one of the responsibilities that president Tinubu did not seek.

And it is a burden that he was compelled to bear by virtue of the fact that he had emerged as Nigeria’s president at a time that it was our country’s turn to preside over the ECOWAS.

That burden of managing the epidemic of coups not withstanding,the responsibility of marketing Nigeria to potential investors that President Tinubu was rearing to pursue with utmost zeal,even while he was president-in-waiting has led to his plugging Nigeria into the new world economic order via aggressive introduction of our country to the world leveraging the shuttle diplomacy that he had made to Paris,France and London,UK shortly after his election to share with investors out there the new vistas of business opportunities that his bouquet of policy changes has opened for them to take stakes in Nigeria which is the biggest market in Africa.

That move has been capped by attending the G-20 meeting that has just been concluded in India where our president made a declaration to the 20 most powerful countries in the world that G-20 without Nigeria is incomplete.

Although only African Union,AU has been admitted into G-20 during the 63rd meeting which held from the 9-10th September in India,the storming of the meeting by President Tinubu and top government apparatchik,plus a powerful delegation of Nigerian business men and women,Nigeria has announced her arrival on the international scene.

And by that gesture he has also signaled to the world that our country is now open for business driven by the liberalization of the economy by the largest market in Africa via her Tinubunomics doctrine.

Although President Tinubu that was already racing against time in navigating through a maze of internal socioeconomic and political issues besetting our country that he had inherited from his predecessor; and which he had to deal with squarely before they snowball was threatening to overwhelm him,he still had time to attend to the epidemic of autocracy, which he had aptly tagged contagion of coups sweeping across the continent.

To put things in perspective,a bit of background information about the regional body,ECOWAS would be in order.

It was formed in 1975 and it is currently comprised of 15 member states with a combined population of 387 million and nominal GDP of $816 billion.

The member states are Benin,Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Mali, Niger,Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo.

At the last count,there were seven (7) countries in a period of three years,between 2020 to 2023 that have fallen off the cliff of democracy into the abyss of autocracy via toppling of democratically elected presidents in the west African region.
These are Burkina Faso, Guinea Bissau,Chad,Mali.
The others are Sudan,Niger and Gabon which are now under the military jackboot.

The palpable concern and ominous sign that the military is gaining more grounds in more countries in Africa , particularly West Africa, as such more countries that had embraced democracy may toe the path to dictatorship similar to the ones passed through by their contemporaries,if the ogre of coups is not stopped in its tracks before it becomes a trend.

Apparently,it is in attempts to forestall copy cat coups in neighboring countries, that African nations presidents such as Paul Kagame of Rwanda sacked a huge number of top military officers including twelve (12) generals and replaced them with a new crop of officers loyal to him.

It is a strategy,if you like tactics that President Paul Biya of Cameroon has also replicated in his country by reshuffling the military hierarchy of his country.

Incidentally,the Rwandan and Cameroonian presidents are taking the preemptive measures of checkmating the military generals in their countries because they are sit tight leaders who have tweaked with the constitutions of their respective countries to enable them perpetuate themselves in office beyond their due term after changing the rules of the game.

Ordinarily and under normal circumstances, the epidemic of autocracy currently sweeping across Africa,would be deemed as ill wind that would bode no good for the continent.

But the African Continent has been subjected to extraordinarily sordid experiences in the hands of her colonizers that have kept them in perpetual servitude via imperialist practices since 18884/85.

That is because although independence has been granted to all the countries on the African continent,the countries economies and often times political systems are still under the vice grip and overwhelming yoke of their colonizers.

That is particularly so with respect to France which is the biggest culprit in the exploitation of African countries for their natural resources and often times,even their finances have remained encumbered by way of being tied to the French economy via the France Monetary Zone arrangement, CFA.

In fact, there is a notion that France is mainly the reason that there has been a harvest of coup d’ tats in Africa. That is evidenced by the fact that most recent military putsches in the African continent have taken place in Francophone countries.

The European countries that had practically carved up Africa amongst themselves,comprise of English,French, Spanish and German speaking nations including Belgium which have forced their language ,cultural and religious beliefs on hapless Africans most of whom have lost their original cultures before the invasion of the Europeans.

Research by the pair of M Powell and Clayton Thyne who are Americans that have taken interest in researching into the evolution of coups in the world and indeed Africa, indicate that of the 486 coups that were staged since 1950, 214 happened in Africa and 106 were successfully staged.
It is was further revealed that at least 45 of the 54 countries in Africa have experienced coup d’tats.

Although,the origin of the word Africa as the name of the continent has been disputed by scholars, the Greek word ‘Aphrike’ which is translated as “without cold” and the Latin word ‘Aprica’ meaning “Sunny” are generally believed to be the words common to Europeans,particularly Phoenicians ,Greeks and Romans which they used to refer to the continent.

Also ,the word AFRU-lKA which means motherland in Egyptian language is also a probable source of the name,Africa.

As most of us are well aware, the Europeans quest to conquer Africa commenced with the expeditions embarked upon by the likes of Mungo Park,a Scottish explorer to whom Western historians ascribe the discovery of the River Niger in 1796 ,which is totally preposterous.

That is because the River niger had been existing before the adventurers set foot in African soil,so the Scottish explorer actually should be credited only for putting the majestic river Niger on the European map,no more,no less.

Since then,the nature of the grip of Europeans on Africa and her rich natural resources have been mutating from their first coming as missionaries preaching the gospel of God to being slave traders with Africans as the merchandise,then later as colonialists by ruling over Africans in the quest of exploiting the natural resources that abound and which they have been carting away to develop Europe to their current role as imperialists engaged in unfair trade practices against Africa.

On a wholistic assessment of the situation,one fact that is glaring and indisputable is that they do not intend to let go of obtaining African natural resources for little or nothing as opposed to engaging in fair trade with Africans in the manner that they do with fellow Europeans,Americans,Arabs and Asians.
It is such incongruities that are at the heart of the instability in Africa.

Historical records indicate that the scramble for Africa was triggered by king Leopold ll of Belgium in the Congo basin.
Bearing in mind how the Belgians destroyed the entire landscape of the Democratic Republic of Congo,DRC in their long exploitation of the vast land in search of precious metals,until the country degenerated into its current status of being a waste land,

Going by the narrative of how Belgium
ruined DRC via reckless exploitation of the abundant natural resources such as cobalt essential for manufacturing Electric Vehicles, EVs in that country, it would be clear that all the fourteen (14) African countries under the French monetary Union known as CFA have been suffering the misfortune of being exploited for their highly valuable natural resources, would also be groaning in pains by being French colonies also known as Francophone nations.

That is underscored by the fact that although former French colonies have been granted independence,the reality is that political freedom has been mere facade as they have remained under the grips of French authorities that have continuously pillaged the continent through neocolonialism.

Take the situation in Niger Republic which is home to huge uranium deposits,another highly priced material critical to the production of nuclear bomb.

Due to the importance of uranium,France has a military contingent stationed there just as the USA equally has a military base in Niger Republic.

Ostensibly,both countries can be said to be protecting the uranium asset from getting into the hands of terrorists who could convert it to weapons of mass destruction, WMD.
That is fair and justifiable.

But nothing justifies the level of poverty in Niger Republic that is so rich in natural resources,but remains one of the poorest nations on earth,hence it is a hot bed of terrorism in Africa.

It beggars belief that the developed world would not allow the country that is rich in uranium enjoy the deserved benefits of their God given uranium through fair trade.

The socioeconomic situation in Niger Republic validates my position in my last piece in my column last week titled “Are BRICS And G20 Assets Or Liabilities?”where l argued that capitalism and inequality are major culprits for terrorism in the world as the victims have been lashing out at their presumed oppressors by way of terrorist activities.

As the aphorism goes,extraordinary situations deserve extraordinary decisions and actions.
Such a mindset or attitude,although nihilistic is perhaps a weird justification by coup plotters and even terrorists of their dastardly actions.

That is why on one hand, it is difficult to chide the citizens of the countries who are celebrating on the streets of the countries where a plethora of military coup detats has been staged since 2020 which as at the last count,as earlier stated,number up to seven (7).

And on another hand,in line with the conventional wisdom: ‘the worst democracy is better than the best military rule’, most men and women of goodwill in Nigeria and indeed Africa detest military incursion into politics and restrain themselves from endorsing regime change through barrels of the gun and the operation of government through military diktat.

That is what has thrown up the scourge of ‘Good’ and ‘Bad’ coups that l had earlier illustrated with the coups in Niger Republic and Gabon.

Whereas there are two types of coups which involve military and civilian actors ,hitherto,it is mainly the military ones that are notorious and often condemned,while the coups perpetrated by politicians via tenure elongation are accommodated .

But it would appear that such attitude to coups is fast changing as Africans are now calling out political office holders who sit tight in office by hook or crook.

The realty is that sit tight democratically elected presidents in Africa who tweak with the constitutions of their countries to enable them elongate their tenures are also guilty of being coup plotters.

As such they are culpable like the military juntas and they need to be condemned and pressured to relinquish political power as at when due in order not to give the military the excuse to make incursions into political leadership via coup d’tats.

In particular,the worst culprit amongst former colonizers in buffeting sit tight leaders is the French that have continued to have military bases in most of her former colonial enclaves,so much so that the French are seen as the alternative government by being the unseen hands behind the throne.

That is the case in Gabon which is rich in crude oil and manganese which are major foreign exchange earners,yet the citizens of the country are very poor and the standard of living of the nationals is abysmally low.

Whereas the population of Europe is estimated to be less than 750 million, Africa is about more or less 1.5 billion people. And while there are about 44 sovereign nations in Europe,Africa boasts of 54 independent nations.

But despite the superior numerical strength of Africa, Europe has continued to manipulate her basically because the continent missed the train during the Industrial Revolution that happened when the steam engine was invented in England in 1712 and the africa continent failed to get into the loop.

The French and other colonists are being accused of buffeting the the sit tight leaders who they convert to their stooges. Hence, for instance,the Niger Republic coup plotters are vowing to arraign the ousted president Mohammed Bazoun for treason.

The continued impunity of sit tight political leaders in Africa is clearly evidence of failure of African peer review mechanism embodied in NEPAD, which is acronym for New Partnership For Africa Development.

That is a body that is supposed to keep African leaders with vaulting ambitions in check by pressuring them to quit the stage as at when they are due to exit political office.

But NEPAD has become complicit in the descent of Africa from being military dictatorship free, to one where democracy is fast dying as described by the pair of Steven Livitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, both of whom are professors in government at Harvard University,in their seminal 2018 tome titled: “How Democracies Die”.

As the experts noted: “Democratic no longer ends with a bang-in a revolution or military coup-but with a whimper ..”

Flipping the remark from democracy and replacing it with neo-colonialism from which Africa is currently choking,the end of the unbridled exploitation of Africa for her natural resources by Europeans in any guises ranging from slave trade to colonization to neo-colonialism and imperialism; the current new raft of coups may be signaling the true independence of Africa from neocolonialism.

Although most of African countries were granted independence in the 1960s,some, especially francophone countries have remained tied to the apron strings of their colonialists who have continued to be their puppeteers in a sort of master-slave relationship.

Given the current political landscape of Africa replete with coups and what l would like to term militicracy which is so complex that it has become as intricate as a maze and as puzzling as cracking the Davinci Code,which is tasking President Tinubu’s intellect; it would appear as if the African countries that are are still under the vice grip of European hegemonic powers are determined to reimagine and enforce their freedom from any act of oppression from strangers in their land that have been tele-guiding their pliable leaders and exploiting them.

It now appears as if the emerging crop of leaders are not amenable to being the pipers that may be dictated to by who pays the pipers as the wise crack: ‘he who pays the piper dictates the tune’ suggests.

The truth is that Africans appear poised to be the masters of their destiny.

In my reckoning, what is happening via military coups is in the manner
that the Abolitionists started the push within the USA for the abolition of slave trade until the law was passed to that effect and the abolitionists started enforcing the end of slave trade.

By the same token,the current wave of coups in Africa which are against the second wave of enslavement which is neocolonialism may finally end the reign of sit tight presidents that are still besetting the continent and the bane of nation building.

It is instructive to note that before slavery finally ended,Denmark had outlawed slave trading by its citizens in 1803, Great Britain in 1807, the United States in 1808, Sweden in 1813,the Netherlands in 1814, and France (for the second time) in 1818.
What the data above reveals is that France was the last amongst the industrialized countries of the world to give up slavery.

So, it is unsurprising that France has once again been a laggard in letting go of its imperialistic tendencies by remaining a co- sovereign in the countries that it had purportedly granted independence.

She is currently facing-off with the Niger Republic putschists that have given France,her former colonizer a quit notice to exit her soil without further delay.

That most former French colonies are banding together to support Niger Republic’s rebellion is a telltale sign that full independence of Africa from France may be on the cusp of happening.

One sure antidote for end of coups in Africa, in my considered opinion is eradication or reduction of poverty in Africa via fair trade from the industrialized and advanced society that have been fleecing the continent of her abundant natural resources without allowing them to earn commensurate rewards.

When Africa’s 54 countries form an active common trade or political block, like African Union, just like the European Union, EU with 27 countries that speaks with one voice, then they would be enjoying the benefits of collective bargaining which has been eluding them.

But even though Africa Union,AU exist , it has been literally so only on paper, which is why they have been getting the wrong end of the stick in terms of pricing their goods and services in the global market place. The truth is that the AU has been too laid back and therefore unable to make a good case for Africa, except it’s recent success of joining the G20 during the 63rd meeting in India.

Although,other countries that were colonized by the Uk such as Canada , Australia, India which are first world countries today, are no longer under the yoke of unfair trade,why is Africa still under the spell ?

Apparently,as lots of keen observers of African political development have pointed out,while the other countries besides Africans that were the colonies of the Uk and other colonizers adopted and adapted to the technological skills of their colonizer.

That point is illustrated by the fact that India whose GDP was less than that of Nigeria in particular at a point in time,apart from the feat of recently landing a spacecraft in the moon,thus becoming the 4th country in the entire world, India currently boasts of producing most of the Chief Technology Officers, CTOs in major Fortune 500 firms.

By comparison,Africans adopted the religion,language and the culture of their colonizers,even as they were impervious to adapting to their colonizer’s technological ingenuity.

That explains why Africans are often more religious than the Pope or the bishop of Canterbury and are blind as a bat when it comes to technical innovations and the reason it continues to rely on other continents to feed her approximately 1.5 billion populace and it is tagged the dark continent.

Indeed,it is incredulous that the African continent,which is very rich in natural resources is still susceptible to divide and rule tactics of their colonizers because it is not speaking with one voice.

Although ,the Arab world and Asians amongst others have found their voices and dictate their terms of trade,Africa is still the weeping child of the world.
Little wonder she has remained the epicenter of poverty and the hot bed for military putsches,’good’ or ‘bad’ ones as well as an incubator for terrorism.

Clearly, the new leaders emerging on the scene such as President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria currently holding sway as ECOWAS chairman,must set his eyes on how to give the AU which is currently punching below its size,a shot in the arm to enable her start punching according to its size ,so that Africa would take its deserved strategic position in the comity of nations, globally.

Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
To continue with this conversation and more ,please visit www.magnum.ng

In the realm of Nigerian politics, the past two decades have witnessed a transformation in leadership that has left a significant mark on the nation’s destiny. It is a period marked by transitions from one administration to another, each promising to bring about the much-needed change and progress. The leadership selection process, however, has often been plagued by the peril of overconfidence, as aptly noted by the Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman. This op-ed examines the leadership styles of two former Nigerian presidents, Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari, through the lens of overconfidence and its implications for the nation’s progress.

Daniel Kahneman, a renowned psychologist and behavioral economist, has spent decades studying human decision-making and the cognitive biases that often influence our choices. His assertion that “one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence” is a fitting starting point for an analysis of Nigerian political leadership. Overconfidence, in the context of leadership, can manifest as an unwarranted belief in one’s abilities, a lack of receptiveness to feedback, and an overestimation of the likelihood of success. This overconfidence can have far-reaching consequences when it comes to governance.

Goodluck Jonathan, who served as Nigeria’s president from 2010 to 2015, is a prominent example of a leader whose tenure was marked by overconfidence. When he assumed office, he inherited a nation grappling with issues such as corruption, insecurity, and economic instability. His leadership, however, was marred by a lack of decisiveness in addressing these challenges. Instead of acknowledging the gravity of the problems and seeking innovative solutions, he often appeared complacent, as if hoping that issues would resolve themselves.

One glaring example of Jonathan’s overconfidence was his handling of the Boko Haram insurgency. Despite the escalating violence and the kidnapping of hundreds of schoolgirls in Chibok, he downplayed the threat, leading to a delayed response that allowed the terrorist group to gain more ground. This overconfidence not only cost lives but also fueled a sense of frustration and helplessness among Nigerians.

Furthermore, Jonathan’s leadership was characterized by an inability to tackle corruption effectively. Despite promising to fight corruption, he seemed reluctant to hold his own party members accountable for their misdeeds. This selective approach to anti-corruption efforts eroded public trust and perpetuated the culture of impunity.

On the other side of the spectrum, Muhammadu Buhari’s presidency, which began in 2015, was also marked by overconfidence, albeit of a different kind. Buhari, a former military leader, was widely seen as a disciplinarian who would bring order to Nigeria’s chaotic governance landscape. His reputation was built on a perception of unyielding integrity, and many Nigerians believed he had the solution to the nation’s problems.

However, Buhari’s leadership style often veered into authoritarianism, with a tendency to sideline democratic institutions and concentrate power in the executive branch. His administration’s overconfidence in its ability to solve Nigeria’s problems without consulting a wide range of stakeholders resulted in a lack of inclusivity and accountability.

One of the most significant manifestations of overconfidence during Buhari’s tenure was the mishandling of the economy. His government’s decision to implement a strict foreign exchange policy and its reluctance to embrace economic diversification led to a recession that hurt ordinary Nigerians. The overconfidence in a narrow set of economic policies disregarded the complexity of the nation’s economic challenges and hampered the country’s growth potential.

Furthermore, Buhari’s administration displayed overconfidence in handling security matters. While the fight against Boko Haram made some progress, other security challenges, such as the Fulani herdsmen crisis and the resurgence of secessionist movements, were often met with heavy-handed tactics rather than dialogue and reconciliation. This approach fueled resentment in affected communities and exacerbated conflicts.

The peril of overconfidence in leadership selection becomes evident when we examine the impact of these two presidencies on Nigeria’s development. Jonathan’s reluctance to confront pressing issues and his selective approach to governance led to a lack of progress on critical fronts. Buhari’s authoritarian tendencies and rigid economic policies stifled innovation and hindered the nation’s growth potential.

It is essential to acknowledge that leadership decisions in Nigeria are influenced by various factors, including political patronage, regional considerations, and ethno-religious dynamics. However, the common thread of overconfidence in leadership selection remains a concerning factor.

To overcome this peril, Nigeria must adopt a more rigorous and merit-based approach to leadership selection. Leaders should be chosen based on their competence, track record, and ability to navigate the complex challenges facing the nation. Additionally, mechanisms for accountability and transparency must be strengthened to prevent leaders from becoming complacent and overconfident in their positions.

Furthermore, leaders should surround themselves with diverse and knowledgeable advisers who can provide different perspectives and challenge their assumptions. Overconfidence often thrives in environments where leaders are insulated from dissenting voices. In contrast, leaders who encourage constructive criticism and engage in open dialogue are more likely to make informed decisions that benefit the nation.

In conclusion, the peril of overconfidence in leadership selection has had a significant impact on Nigeria’s political landscape. Both Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari’s presidencies were marked by overconfidence, which hindered progress on critical issues and contributed to the nation’s challenges. To break free from this cycle, Nigeria must prioritize merit-based leadership selection, accountability, and inclusivity in governance. Only then can the nation harness its full potential and address the pressing issues that have long impeded its development.