Economy

Gen Z is an enigma. From AI to Zoom meetings to blockchain, the generation born between 1997 and 2012 has brought about an incredible transformation in the way corporates will work in the near future. Digitisation colluded with Covid-19 and completely altered the rules of working. While we witness chaos every day, a more drastic change is possible here to stay for good, birthing a novel generation that intends to leave a mark on the workplace environment and culture.

According to a 2021 Consumer Culture Report by 5W Public Relations, Gen Z has prioritised electronics, technology, health, and wellness. This is the generation that has never known a world without the internet. They are not familiar with analogue camera film, a CD player, a paper map or a floppy disk.

Their buying and selling are different. Their mode of working is different. Their decision-making process is quick and calculated, with information available in the blink of an eye and at the click of a finger. They are dependent on mobiles, social media, laptops, and the internet for most of their work. Their income-earning methods are entirely online, with investments made virtually while integrating virtual and offline experiences. If this trajectory continues, it will carve a path for them to pioneer nomadic careers, developing alternative ways to make money online.

True digital natives, this generation is the future of any progressive company. But the commercial giants must take a deep dive into understanding and meeting their expectations, which are entirely different from other generations. It is essential for the corporate world to provide purpose-driven employee experiences, progress and career growth. Only when companies are prepared to accommodate them will they be able to attract the right talent. Gone are the days of employees slaving away. Gone are the days of juicing the best from the all-rounders. Gone are the days of milking them to the last breath. Gen Z will not put up with this.

What does Gen Z want from the corporate world?

They grew up during the recession spawned by the global financial crisis in 2008; they prioritise working for and buying from companies that believe in the importance of sustainable choices, and they have recently lived through another major crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic. One would think that Gen Z would be a practical, cautious and non-entrepreneurial lot driven solely by handsome remuneration and immense job security. And that they would be too cautious to engage in job hopping. But they’re not. As I said earlier: nomadic career paths.

The notion of the typical career ladder leading upwards from the internship cubicle to the C-suite is an archaic one. In its place Gen Z looks for a more ad hoc and flexible routine. While remuneration is a common overlap, factors like mental wellness, ambition, passion and relevance are equally important; but these idealistic, holistic virtues are in strong competition with the very basic backbone of the economy — money!

Thus, it is a no-brainer that Gen Z workers prioritise work-life balance, remote working, and flexibility as their top primacies when looking for a job. Because if any of these go amiss, it will compel them to continue the search for it elsewhere. And so, it is imperative for companies to provide these as a matter of necessity to prevent a high turnover.

What’s more, Gen Z is in pursuit of jobs that allow for broadening of skills, talents, and experiences. This translates into a major shift of the typical HR practices that firms employ to attract, hire and retain the right talent. They must capitalise on the opportunity to enable an environment that is conducive to fostering personal development. And we all know how critical this can be for any generation.

While there is a widespread perception that Gen Z has low tolerance for the challenges that life throws at them, I believe it is quite the opposite. Hav­ing survived two major crises in a little over a decade, this is perhaps the most resilient and adaptable generation that will be better equipped at taking challenges head on.

What exactly then, are they looking for?

Diversity, equity, and inclusion. They want employers to take climate change seriously. They are keen on sustainable companies — to work with, to buy from. They want more transparency and higher ethical standards. No more putting up with work for survival. They want a shift in mindset and strategies. They want to thrive as the organisation flourishes. They want to look for inspiration. They want to feel engaged and work together with the experienced lot. They want them to be receptive to innovative ideas, diverse perspectives.

So, in the face of everything that is constantly changing, what Gen Z looks for at work — and what they will not take — will have enduring repercussions, and it is important to address them because they have clearly, and rapidly, taken over the world.

Many nations implemented assistance measures to reduce economic harm, and many more are doing the same to restore their economies. The world economy is currently experiencing a strong bounce in part because of this, although it is unclear how long it will last. This tenuous recovery might be severely undermined by a fresh variant of Covid-19 called Omicron with a subvariant called XBB.1.5.

It’s difficult to conceive a future where China and growth don’t go hand in hand since they have been associated for so long. China’s almost two decades of fast progress seem to be ending due to a unique convergence of circumstances. The country has been battered by the covid epidemic, the consequences of climate change, and a variety of internal economic issues, from excessive local government debt to a collapsing real estate sector. The harm has been well recorded. However, a significant and less well-known ripple effect is also occurring worldwide. Both great and small nations are unprepared for the consequences.

The impacts of a slowing global economy will be exacerbated for the country’s most dependent on exports, especially those in South and Southeast Asia and Africa, by a declining China market. Others may find new markets as trading patterns move to the quickly developing nations of India and others, but these changes will take years to fully manifest. Since the globe can no longer rely on China’s growth to generate its own wealth, international leaders will need to reconsider their own economic strategies.

The Troubles Inside China

1. Zero- Covid Policy: Zero-covid policy, which has forced hundreds of millions of people into obligatory lockdowns and caused a lack of food and medication as well as a stifling of economic activity, has been the main cause of China’s economic problems. Covid outbreaks have hampered economic activity across industries in several cities. Major services are under strain because people are also not spending money on items like food and drink, shopping, or tourism.

• Real estate crisis: Homebuyers have been refusing to pay their mortgages on partially constructed structures, and some aren’t sure their homes will ever be finished. The decline in demand for new dwellings has decreased the requirement to import building materials. Home prices have fallen by more than 20% last year in dozens of locations despite Beijing’s attempts to support the real estate industry. Property developers are under pressure, therefore government action to restore trust in the real estate market may need to go further.

• Loss of Investors: Young employees have lost their jobs, adding to the unemployment rate among those between the ages of 16 and 24. Long-term, this may be detrimental to China’s productivity and growth. Due to the severe covid outbreak in China, investors have no choice but leave due to low productivity or returns on their investments made in the country which proves detrimental to the economy of China and in turn can affect their growth.

Nigerian Economy

Inflation and the Nigerian Economy

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s Inflation rate increased to 21.47% in November 2022 from the 21.09% recorded a month earlier, as food and energy costs continued to rise for the 10th consecutive month. Since some gas stations have either refused to supply petrol or have sold them at exorbitant prices, Nigeria’s ongoing fuel shortage has gotten worse. The shortage has increased transportation costs, which has an impact on goods and commodities.

The annual inflation rate in Nigeria accelerated for the 10th straight month to 21.47% in November of 2022 from 21.09% in October and above market estimates of 21.15%. It was the highest reading since September of 2005, attributed to food supply disruptions, import cost hikes due to currency depreciation and a rise in production costs. Main upward pressure continued to come from prices of food & non-alcoholic beverages (24.13% vs 23.72% in October), by far the most relevant component in the CPI basket. Insecurity, climate change and the devastating impact of severe flooding on farmlands this year coupled with the ongoing Russia-Ukrainian war remain the key factors weighing on the country’s agricultural sector. Significant upward pressure also came from prices of transport (19.5% vs 19%); miscellaneous goods & services (18.1% vs 17.7%); housing & utilities (17.3% vs 16.8%); restaurants & hotels (16.7% vs 16.5%), among others. Compared to the prior month, prices increased by 1.39%. source: National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria

The report’s findings demonstrate that Nigeria’s economy did not expand and perform as predicted because of structural economic shocks and difficulties brought on by the world’s decline in oil prices, which was a result of the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, the economy must be fixed in the following year, which will be extremely difficult for the new administration. According to experts, to guarantee that the nation meets its OPEC production quota, expand exports, and obtain more foreign currency, the new administration should focus on increasing oil output, which is at an all-time low because of crude oil theft operations.

Food Inflation

Food inflation rate in November stood at 24.13% on a year-year basis according to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria. According to the bureau, price hikes in bread and cereals, oil and fat, potatoes, yams, and fish were to blame for the rise in food inflation.

African Economy

Development of Africa’s supply chain disruptors

Only a seamless supply chain network can deliver the products and services that Africans require. The African supply chain industry is still in its infancy, even though many Africans can be expected to utilize consumable and non-consumable commodities such as food, drinks, sugar, and refined energy products daily.  Supply chain disruptions are now more pervasive and pose a threat to the stability of the African economy in addition to being an industrial issue. Prices for food, gasoline, and building supplies have risen because of shortages and rising input costs. To weather the storm, flexible and robust supply networks will be encouraged.

The vulnerability of the global supply chain architecture that predominated in African trade, according to analysts, has been starkly exposed by the Covid-19 outbreak. This strategy was dependent on several suppliers, the majority of whom were based in China and other remote regions of the world.

As a result of the prolonged lock-down orders implemented in China and other exporting nations to Africa, a security measure to stem the spread of the lethal coronavirus, the supply lines to many African countries were cut off and till this very day various African economies haven’t fully recovered due to the cut off.

Implications for the Construction Industry

Due to the disruption in supply, material and labour costs increased drastically to the extent whereby contractors are asking for a “rise and fall” clause to be included in contracts and seeking extensions for completion of projects due to the shortage of materials available in the countries.

Implications for the Food Industry

Food prices have increased because of supply chain shocks. Seasons and weather dictate a precise schedule for agriculture. The productivity and yield of succeeding seasons may be negatively impacted by a minor disruption in the first season.

Implications for the Fuel Industry

As a result of the continuous conflict in Europe, tighter oil markets, and a rise in demand for transportation fuels following the epidemic, there is uncertainty, a rise in price, and disruptions to supply chains for gasoline. As several African nations shift away from Russian oil, supply networks had to be reorganized in those nations. This has led to rises in both wholesale and retail costs.

“The current global economic slowdown is likely to force more workers into accepting lower quality, poorly paid jobs that lack job security and social protection.”

International Labour Organization

January 16, 2023

Global employment is predicted by the International Labour Organization (ILO) to expand by just 1% in 2023, which is less than half of the rate from the previous year. More employees will likely be forced by the present global economic recession to take worse quality, lower paying employment with less job security and social safety, intensifying already aggravated inequality brought on by the COVID-19 problem.

According to the UN’s International Labour Organization, the cost-of-living problem runs the danger of putting more people into poverty as prices increase faster than wages, and unemployment rates are expected to climb globally.

Multiple, interconnected issues, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine, rising geopolitical tensions, an unequal Covid-19 pandemic recovery, and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks, according to the ILO, have made the lack of decent work worse. With the anticipated slowdown, the ILO warned that the ongoing lack of better job opportunities, which began during the Covid crisis when lower-income workers were disproportionately disadvantaged, was likely to get worse, “pushing workers into jobs of worse quality and denying others adequate social protection.”

The ILO stated that, labour markets are much less favourable for women and young people. In comparison to males, who made up 72.3% of the labour force globally in 2022, women’s participation rate was 47.4%. Due to the discrepancy of 24.9 percentage points, there are two economically inactive women for every economically inactive male.

Finding and maintaining adequate job is extremely challenging for young people (ages 15 to 24). Their unemployment rate is three times higher than that of adults. Moreover, one in five young people (23.5%) are not in work, education, or training.

The ILO expressed alarm about a predicted slowdown in productivity, which it said was “important for tackling the interconnected crises we confront in buying power, ecological sustainability, and human welfare,” and stated that it does not anticipate the drop down in employment growth observed during the Covid crisis to be regained until at least 2025.

As the bickering escalates on multiple platforms across Nigeria and the globe, on the upcoming Nigerian election, here are some food for thought on developmental policies and the selection process of our leaders in Nigeria to enable development.

 
Firstly, Nigeria’s development is far too important for us to implement neoliberal policies that are designed for us to fail. We need a bold government that will push back against these imposed policies that continue to see the extraction of value from our economy rather than the creation of wealth. We need to focus on production and not consumption. Nigeria should not be sold as a big market for importation of goods but as an endowed country with vast resources, especially human resources, as factors of production.  We also need the emergence of more nationalistic business elites to work collaboratively with the government for the collective good of the country and not for accumulation of individual wealth that are deposited and invested in more advanced countries. 
 
Secondly, on the selection of leaders, Nigeria is a serious enterprise and not a fantasy league, as such we need a model of democracy that works for us by considering the track record and performance of potential candidates. We don’t want to select leaders based on theories, or wishful thinking, we want to entrust this large entity to tried and tested individuals that are selected based on their score cards- and not based on “politics of the belly” or “empty promises” but based on solid track record of value creation.
 
Therefore, it is time we review our selection process and development policies to ensure alignment with the desired state befitting of the giant of Africa because very soon the widening inequality will also drive the  “haves” and their future generation out of the country on self-imposed exile. Which way Nigeria depends on how truly nationalistic we are as a country- especially the elites and the political class!

It’s longer news the harrowing experience Nigerians are subjected to daily in the quest to purchase petroleum motor spirit (PMS) from gas stations across our dear nation. It’s a tale of agony and pain to access this product that’s laden in enormous terms in Africa’s most populous nation, yet it’s a tall order to buy it hassle free via the pumps. The elephant in the room therein is the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) Retail which straddles the oil and gas ecosystem like a colossus – It’s books are shouting that it’s a privatized entity based on the passage of the PIA Act much earlier, but it’s output in public reek of inefficiencies, stumbling blocks and a morass of corruption. At this rate it’s not far fetched to state in clear terms that Nigerians are subjected to hell in a land of plenty thanks to no fault whatsoever of theirs.

Where does one start? Like the old mantra that states the Devil is in the details. The much-touted PIA Act legislation by the 9th National Assembly (NASS) articulates on the downstream sector industry framework. Reverse is the case as Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria (MOMAN) and the Independent Oil Marketers (IPMAN) who are the largest entities who import and distribute PMS into the Nigeria market are handicapped to access the products thanks to inability to access forex, sky rocketing exchange rate(s) and most importantly the subsidy regime that’s practiced in this part of the world. The subsidy regime has made the importation of fuel no longer attractive and the onus falls on NNPCL Retail that’s so far lacking in this endeavour that has left the generality of Nigerians stranded like rabbits caught in the midst of headlights on a lonely road.

In addition to this huge drawback, it’s been a huge blame game where the MD/CEO, NNPCL Retail, Hub Stockman and IPMAN have been trading blames left, right and centre. It’s been a recurring decimal from the NNPC Towers nestled in the CBD, Abuja that there’s over 1.9 billion liters supply of PMS for the market and that nobody should fret. Alas, all one needs no soothsayer to tell or feel where the pain in the shoe bites with snake like traffic snarls, boxing bouts to fill tanks, night and day vigil(s) at gas station. The body language displayed by Stockman and the GMD/CEO, NNPCL Group, Mele Kolo Kyari reeks with political speak bandwidth where nothing gets done and heads don’t roll.

At this rate, this hydra headed monster has cast the ruling party, APC as a confused calcified curse in the scheme of affairs. The current Minister of Petroleum is the president and C-in-C, Muhammad Buhari with Timipre Sylva superintending as the Minister of State. There’s no gainsaying that Yuletide season was stolen from Nigerians and the New Year has eloped so far based on these unsavoury development. Productivity and output has taken a massive dent, as human capital that ought to be channeled for positive and cash yielding initiatives is wasted with reckless abandon at gas station(s) chasing a product that should be flowing like milk and honey in Canaan land. Ideological necrophilia as espoused by former Venezuelan minister of Finance, Dr. Moises Naim happens to be the bane of the PMB led administration. One does not need to go far or wide, the fixation with dead ideas has brought to where we find ourselves.

The middle ground where Nigeria finds itself is that the current subsidy regime must go by all means. The Bretton Woods institutions and international partners have advised Nigeria that this industry practice is no longer sustainable, as it leaves a huge hole beyond comprehension in the pockets of the government at the centre. The honourable minister of Finance, Dr. Zainab Shamshuna Ahmed stated earlier that subsidy would be removed in the month of June 2023. It’s a bitter pill to swallow to get things working with the successor administration to the PMB tenure will have to give their sweat, tears and blood to balance the books. Based on these lacunae, the scorecard of the ruling APC administration is poor. In holistic terms, nobody so far is insulated from this bedlam from the young, mid age and old to the elites and have not’s.

How long will Nigeria citizenry continue to lobby and beg in a humiliating manner to access PMS daily? It’s a mixed cocktail of pain and backbreaking pain with different price across the Nigeria federation and the FCT, Abuja. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown that consumer prices have skyrocketed amidst increase in transportation costs, while the take home pay of the average Nigerian worker has been pounded like an amateur boxer learning the rudiments of the physical combat sport. The recent drop in inflation figures from 21.41% to 21.36% by latest NBS data doesn’t constitute a moral booster, as the status quo still pervades the markets.

One huge question that must addressed is why is subsidy been paid paid for a product imported by a privatized entity, NNPCL Retail and yet it’s not available for purchase at the pumps. It’s election season with various presidential candidates advocating for support at the forthcoming polls in February 2023. The only shining light at the end of the tunnel is the Dangote Refinery that is reportedly about to come onboard – There’s also speculation that Port Harcourt Refinery will come on stream after the turnaround maintenance. It’s still far from reality though, as the only make believe is when the supply hits the markets.

That will provide succour to the economy, as much cherished forex will not chart the capital flight route offshore. It smacks of barefaced pretension that in the leagues of global oil behemoths like Saudi Aramco, Petronas, Petrobras, Statoil, Sonangal, Qatar Energy, Sonatrach amongst others that Nigeria’s NNPCL cannot hold it’s head high. The glitz and blitz of the brand makeover earlier at the Aso Rock Presidential Villa to announce the new identity of NNPCL and the shiny TVC’s on CNN makes any third party observer to cringe with fear at all these artificial dressage in public domain. The best brand endorsement of any brand is hinged on functionality and availability – It’s old as the mountains and doesn’t need any education from any ivory tower to imbibe these values.

In conclusion, a lean, trim and functional NNPCL is not too much to ask for in the scheme of affairs. They need to get things working to fuel the engines of growth to make Nigeria grow in the comity of nations. The positive news of oil discovery in the Kolmani acreage amongst others should be latched on to make things going forward. The blame games by the Hub Stockman led NNPCL Retail must come to and end to spare Nigerians this agony that’s no fault of theirs.

Ayoola Ajanaku is a Communications and Advocacy specialist based in Lagos, Nigeria.

There is currently a limit to the amount of cash that individuals and corporate bodies can withdraw from their bank accounts across the counter in Nigeria.
But there is no limit to the absurdities that can happen in the financial services and political space in our dear country.
The assertion above is justified by the fact that until Monday 16 January 2023 that he returned to his desk after his trip to the United States of America,USA where he was part of president Mohammadu Buhari’s delegation to the president Joe Biden,U.S.-Africa summit held in Washington DC,U.S.A ,13-15 December,the CBN governor, Godwin Emefiele had been unaccounted for.
That is simply because he was declared a national security risk by the Department Of State Security Service,DSS,so he automatically became a fugitive since he could not return to Nigeria in the intervening period.
It is not clear whether it is owing to the assumption in some quarters that he had been kidnapped in the US by a criminal gang that intended to compel him with a gun pointed at his head to disclose to them the code that would enable them gain access to Nigerian treasury and authorize the transfer of billions of dollars from Nigeria to designated accounts overseas,as we often see in Western movies.
In any case before he traveled,one Kazaure Gudaji,claiming to be the Secretary of Presidential Committee on Reconciliation and Recovery of Stamp Duties Revenue, had alleged that N89 trillion revenues accruing to the federal government of Nigeria from stamp duties was misappropriated and diverted by the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele.
But the spokesman of president Mohammadu Buhari, Mr Garba Shehu had promptly debunked the claim by stating that it was: “ludicrous that a member of the parliament would claim to be secretary of an executive committee”.
Despite the denunciation of the seemingly scurrilous claims of Mr Gudaji ,analysts have boiled down Emefiele’s embattlement to the allegations by the self appointed committee that is insisting that he converted N89 trillion naira stamp duty charges collected from Nigerians through the banks and Nigeria Interbank Settlements System,NIBSS over a period of ten (10) years into a private account.
Dear readers, please take note that N89 trillion naira is over four (4) times the value of our country’s 2023 national budget which is N21. 83 trillion naira.
Here is a snippet of some of the mind boggling and jaws dropping claims:
“Furthermore, Stamp Duties revenue accruing to FGN is still growing at an astronomical rate, and this is quite evident from latest NIBSS statistics that reported eTransactions at N117.3 Trillion in just 4 months of 2022 alone, and by conservative estimates, these could reach over N400 Trillion by year end. It must be noted that NIBSS is just 1 of 15 other switches whose records have not been captured by Copyright-holder, and CBN is jealously guarding the huge revenue that is “above OIL” from Government…”
But since no money has been declared missing from the CBN and Emefiele is back home,(presumably in the safe bosom of his dear wife and other family members) it can be safely assumed that the kidnap plot failed in the US,as the CBN governor ,who perhaps relying on voodoo from his birth place -Agbor,Delta state,was able to hypnotize his kidnappers and varnished into the thin air after which he manifested in Nigeria last Wednesday and subsequently showed up at work on Monday 16 January,2023.
Of course what has been stated above is mere speculation as there has been no proof whatsoever that stamp duty money was collected and diverted.
Although,in the course of Emefiele’s prolonged sojourn abroad,which in military terms equates to Missing In Acton,MIA,no one could account for his whereabouts in the period of his absence,there is no evidence that he was kidnapped or under duress to remain abroad except the claim that the secret police would arrest him whenever he showed up in Nigeria.
Ordinarily,government should have kept Nigerians abreast of what is going on,but did not deem it fit to give an account of where was the CBN governor,who is basically the ‘caretaker’ of our national vault from Sunday 11 December when he departed with President Buhari to the U.S to Monday 16 January which is about one month before Emefiele showed up at work.
Owing to the national security implications,apart from allegations about being a sponsor of boko haram and related terrorist groups,l am demurring from going into details about other frightening imputations that have been made about the alleged high crimes against Mr Emefiele,because they are as wild and fantastic as anyone’s imagination can be stretched.
But given the fact that the CBN treasury containing our common wealth which the government in power is supposed to be holding in trust for ‘We The People’ at whose behest it happens to be in power, (having been the ones that elected the president and his cabinet in 2015 and again in 2019)and which is assuming we were practicing a truly liberal democracy where the electorate matter; Nigerians aught to have been apprised of the reasons behind Emefiele’s long absence from his duty post and why he was under siege.
It is not only disappointing,but ridiculous that the last thing Nigerians heard about Emefiele (before the press release on Monday 16/1/2023 by the CBN’s public affairs department that he is back on duty) was a failed attempt to arrest and lock him up when DSS sought to obtain an arrest warrant from a high court in Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, FCT headed by Justice John Tsoho who denied the agency the request.
One of the justifications for denying the secret police the court’s authority was on the ground that it failed to present justifications solid enough to convince the judge on the need to the grant the order to arrest Godwin Emefiele,CBN governor at a time that he was leading the apex financial regulatory agency on the task of redesigning the naira-a critical national assignment with monumental socio-economic and even political impact on our beloved country.
Propitiously, the SSS did the right thing on Monday (16/1/2023) by debunking the lie that was swirling around that the agency had arrested the embattled CBN governor after he resumed at his duty post.
But as a result of the dearth of authentic information about Emefiele’s ordeal,which l would like to tag the Emefiele Saga,the rumor mill had gone into an overdrive,as Nigerians and our country’s foreign partners alike who were starved of the correct information,went on wild speculation spree.
Arising from the above ,invention of bizarre scenarios like the one that l narrated in the introductory part of this intervention to fill the information gap between reality and fantasy was bound to happen simply because nature abhors vacuum.
And the unsavory incident of the attempt to arrest the CBN governor by DSS underscores the opaqueness of our government about its activities which has been taken to a new level of incredulity by the current regime in charge of our beleaguered country.
In fact the malaise of lack of transparency in public administration in our country is deeply concerning because the travail of the CBN governor of which government has failed to be open to Nigerians by explaining what the issues are and sharing with the public the actions being taken is bound to have a reverberating effect across financial institutions around the world.
Given that the nation and indeed the world had just been regaled with damning and bewildering revelations about how the former accountant general of the federation,Ahmed Idris bilked the country of a humongous sum of one hundred and nine (N109 billion) naira by simply manipulating teacher’s payroll,it is obvious that there is no limit to the level of perversion in our our country’s financial services system. Which is a development that is gut wrenching and a negative tag on our identity as Nigerians as we travel internationally while on holiday or doing business around the world.
In light of the sordidness of such a damnable reputation of our country in the eyes of global financial institutions,the rating of our country’s financial and economic strength by international rating agencies like Fitch and Moodys would further nose dive and lenders would rather thumb their nose at us,than give us thumps up.
That is on top of the fact that our country has just made an appropriation bill (budget) for this year 2023 for a total of N21.83 trillion naira with only a paltry sum of about N9 trillion naira as revenue projected to be generated by the economy,while about N12 trillion of the budget would be sourced through borrowing.
With a tattered reputation of financial recklessness evidenced by the chaos in our financial regulatory system highlighted earlier,who would be willing to lend Nigeria money? And if they do ,would it not be at cut throat rate because of the high risk rating status of our country stemming from the ludicrous events surrounding the handlers of the financial affairs of our country?
The dire situation is further compounded by the fact that our country’s local debt stock that is is currently estimated to be about N55 trillion, and which some experts are even projecting that both the local and external loans would be amounting to N77 trillion by the time the current regime is exiting Aso Rock Villa by the end of May,is another albatross that should worry Nigerians.
And the assertions above about our country’s current debt profile are not bogus as they are based on data and reports sourced from the Debt Management Office,DMO.
The gargantuan size of our national debt is the reason over 90% of our revenue is dedicated to loan servicing of which it has been recently reported that a princely sum of nearly $15 billion dollars has been expended in servicing of our foreign debt in the past eight (8) years.
Worse still,an International Monetary Funds,IMF projection is that by 2026,one hundred (100%) percent of Nigeria’s revenue would be dedicated towards servicing public debts.
It is some of these liabilities that are casting dark shadows over the future of our country as we move towards another change of guard in Aso Rock Villa and a very likely change of ruling party at the center as it had happened in 2015 when Peoples Democratic Party,PDP yielded the position to APC as a consequence of even less hardship compared to the current burden of multiple dimensions of extreme poverty and frightening level of insecurity whose weight are crushing Nigerians.
Right now, what should even be giving Nigerians more sleepless nights is that it is only a tiny fraction of the 2023 national budget,a miserly 23% or so of the N21.83 trillion is what would be left for capital projects,(after hiving off a huge portion for debt servicing and recurrent expenditure)in a country of 200 million people suffering from acute shortage of infrastructure in the manner that the Sahara,Kalahari or any desert at all is bereft of water.
As we all know,deserts are uninhabitable by ordinary humans,except the Berbers and Tuaregs who have adapted to the harsh environment.
With Nigerian environment degenerating to the level of being like a desert,it is understandable why Nigerian youths have been migrating in droves to foreign lands where the grass appear greener-also known as ‘japa’ syndrome.
So,by all indications,owing to the nation’s present colossal debt burden,Nigerians are guaranteed more hardship as it would be another desert experience for the long suffering masses who elect not to ‘japa’ but to remain in our country in the next few years.
Arising from the scenario painted above,the incoming government from 29 May this year would certainly be faced with the priority of first of all rescuing our country from financial entanglements in order to restore hope before any other action can be taken.
Which is why Nigerians on 25 February presidential election D-Day must elect a president with cognate experience, garnered from being on the saddle before, so that he would not get to Aso Rock Villa and spend a better part of his first term trying to understand how best to untangle the web of debts in order to claw our country out of the debt hole that it has sunken. Otherwise, it would be very tough,if not an impossibility for Nigerians to escape the current looming hardship that may get worse if the wrong person gets into the saddle of leadership in Aso Rock Villa.
That is my personal assessment.
In any case, the masses are already attuned to or adapting to the grim condition which they are doomed to continue to contend with this year and the coming years as some economists aver that individual Nigerians would be carrying a debt burden of at least N385,000 each,if the projected debt of N77 Trillion is shared equally amongst two hundred (200)million members of the populace.
In other words,if a child is born in Nigeria today,he/ she would from the moment of birth be carrying a debt burden of about N385,000.
Do not blame me if it sounds alarmist because l am just the messenger.
Now,compare the chaotic and opaque situation in the top echelon of our country’s political leadership and the financial system as well as the security monitoring and enforcement space whereby nobody has taken the responsibility of explaining to Nigerians what the matter really is with the CBN governor; to the events in the US wherein classified documents were discovered in the private office and residence of current president Joe Biden,and Americans have asked hard questions,(deservedly so) until the presidency started giving them answers.
It is part of the beauty of democracy that Americans are being briefed consistently about the development starting from president Biden who had been bombarded with questions by reporters at every turn,to the chief press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre who had no other choice than to be conducting daily press conferences,and finally to the Attorney General/Justice Secretary,Merrick Garland,who has dutifully explained to Americans the steps that he has taken so far and the reason he had to appoint an independent investigator to get to the bottom of how and why classified documents were found in the private office and home of President Joe Biden.
That is a classical case of the people pushing for accountability from their political leaders and public office holders as well as a striking evidence of true democracy at work.
As has been done in the U.S.,which is why the truth is presently unfolding,why has president Buhari not caused our Justice Minister,Abubakar Malami to appoint a special investigator to truly find out what is the cause of the hoopla raised by SSS against Emefiele and the hullabaloo going on in the CBN which is the nation’s financial institution that is the lender of last resort and therefore a critical organ of government.
Considering that the International Monetary Fund,IMF had advised Nigeria to phase out CBN financing of the government in order to the reduce double-digit inflation which has reached an unprecedented rate, (in excess of 21% according to NBS records) even as president Buhari had also requested that NASS converts the over N23 trillion worth of loans to government by the CBN via the financial instrument of Ways and Means to 40 years bonds at 9%(securitization) which effectively boils down to transferring current debt to the next generation,search no more for why our country is in a quagmire.
That is not all.
In the twilight of this administration’s life span,the federal government has also sought and received another extra nearly one trillion naira loan from the apex bank.
In light of the realities above ,who is after Emefiele to the extent of trying to force him out of office before the end of his tenure when he has a huge responsibility of tidying up CBN books (that have been under HI’s management for 8 years) before the curtain falls on Buhari’s administration?
The multi trillion naira poser now is: can the presidency at whose behest Emefiele occupies the office or politicians who are being accused of being behind the CBN governor’s travails based on allegations that his naira redesign project and cash withdrawals limit are a ploy to prevent politicians from having access to cash owing to the cap on the amount of cash that can be withdrawn from banks,be the antagonists.
Although,those considering the matter from a political prism claim that the policy would deny politicians of access to the cash that they could have applied in buying votes during the general elections coming up in less than forty (40) days time, but in Justifying the naira re-design initiative, and limit on cash withdrawal policy; Emefiele applying the optics of an economist,had said that N2.73 trillion,which is over 80 per cent of the total cash of N3.23 trillion in circulation is outside the banking system.
So,the policy is aimed at pulling the funds into the system,reducing counterfeiting, encouraging a cashless economy, staving off cash hoarding,bringing more people into the financial sector,as well eliminating the incidences of kidnapping and terrorism which cash payments facilitates.
Keeping in mind that president Buhari has the power to sack Emefiele even when his tenure of five (5) years is yet to be completed,(in the manner that former president Goodluck Jonathan suspended and subsequently sacked Mallam Sanusi Lamido Sanusi who later became emir of Kano before he was deposed) Mr President in my reckoning is most likely not Emefiele’s traducer.
That is because l am assuming that he would not go round in circles to fire Emefiele,if he is displeased with his performance or he has been criminally indicted for any impropriety.
If per adventure l am correct in my second guessing of president Buhari,in any case he hardly fires his appointees based on public outcry against them,who want’s Emefiele out of the CBN?
That question would be best answered by the members of the intelligence and security community who should be talking more to Nigerians to avoid the unnecessary tension stemming from speculations and fake news that are currently suffocating our country.
To appreciate the criticality of the role of effective communication in governance, consider how the prompt media statement by the SSS making it clear that it had not arrested Emefiele on Monday 16 February 2023 as earlier reported in the media, helped clear the fog before it could gain currency.
The crisis situation in the CBN would not be too worrying,if the chairman of Independent National Electoral Commission,INEC ,Professor Mahmood Yakubu had not like CBN’s Emefiele been threatened as well with an arrest also by one of our country’s security agencies.
In professor Yakubu’s case,it is in connection with alleged flawed asset declaration action which is in contravention of the rules of the Code of Conduct bureau.
But pundits have argued that the plan to arrest the INEC chairman Yakubu is not just about his alleged failure to declare his assets correctly,which they claim is just a cover up.
But they are insisting that it is a plot to prevent him from conducting the forthcoming election in which he intends to deploy Bimordal Voter Registration System,BVAS which is amongst other high technology based systems that have proven to be solid proof against election rigging.
So,what the hell is going on in our country’s intelligence and security space as the apparatchiks appear to have become so much on edge based on the unusual spate of attempts to arrest top members of government incharge of strategic and sensitive organs currently executing the most consequential event in the life of our country-the recruitment of the next set of our political leaders via general elections?
It is remarkable that it also took an injunction by a court of law prohibiting professor Yakubu’s arrest and detention to keep him at his desk where he is currently saddled with the onerous duty of superintending over the general elections commencing 25 February which is more or less forty (40)days away.
Can readers imagine the effect that arresting and keeping the INEC chairman away from his duty post could have caused the nation at this critical point in time,if the prayers of one Somadina Uzoabaka who sued INEC chairman to court in Abuja were to have been granted by the judge ?
That would have likely caused the postponement of the elections and thus become a repeat of what occurred in 2015 when the general elections were postponed for six (6) weeks.
Incidentally,election postponement which INEC chairman is vehemently opposed to and working assiduously to avoid is in tandem with the vision of president Buhari who has also vowed to prevent it as evidenced in his speeches to multiple local and global audiences. In fact our president is known to have made solemn promises to Nigerians and our international partners that his goal is to bequeath Nigeria with the freest and fairest elections before he exits Aso Rock Villa on 29 May this year.
With such a determined and focused mindset to leave a legacy of a reformed and robust electioneering system,how would Mr president allow forces of anarchy (seemingly invisible) cause a postponement or cancellation of the scheduled election by disrupting activities in the CBN and INEC under his watch?
Whatever the case may be ,l am convinced that postponement or cancellation of the general elections is not in President Buhari’s contemplation right now.
Nevertheless,one curious and striking situation that l have observed is that lately there have been so many co-incidences of clashes between the law enforcement community and the interpretative society.
For instance,barely one month ago,the Chief of Army Staff, COAS,General Farouk Yahaya was also charged for contempt of court and his arrest was ordered by the court presided over by justice Halima Abdulmalik in Minna,Niger state.
Similarly, within the same period,the Inspector General Of Police,lGP was also issued a bench warrant for contempt of court.The order was by Justice Bolaji Olajuwon,a Federal Capital Territory,FCT high court judge.
Around the same time in December last year,Abdulrasheed Bawa,Chairman of Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC was equally directed to be committed to jail for contempt by a court in the Federal Capital Territory,FCT.
Although the trio have caused the court orders to be discharged,these are nevertheless uncommon occurrences and suggest lack of coordination between relevant federal government agencies.
So,what is going on in the interpretative, security intelligence,military and law enforcement communities in our country?
What is responsible for the chaos?
Why is it that there appears to be an ongoing tuff war?
It would still be fresh in the memory of some Nigerians when the SSS and EFCC,both of which report directly to the presidency literally crossed swords publicly as the EFCC laid siege on the residences of an ex DG of SSS with the intent to arrest him and the agency that he had led had to give him cover.
It was such an embarrassment that both government security agencies that could have resolved their differences administratively and amicably by seating around a table over coffee/tea with the Office Of The National Security Adviser,ONSA as umpire,exhibited their rivalry via naked and public display of raw power to the dismay of most Nigerians.
It is my hope,and in-fact my fervent prayers that our country security agencies have grown beyond that sordid past.
It also necessary to recall that after June 12,1993 elections,late Chief Arthur Nzeribe and a certain Abimbola Davies riding on a civil society platform known as Association for Better Nigeria,ABN,went to court with the intention of scuttling the process of transition from military to multi party democracy.
Based on the nefarious activities of ABN,civil rights and democracy advocate, Beko Randlsome-Kuti (of blessed memory) went to court to obtain an injunction against ABN that was allegedly engaged in subversive activities inimical to democracy.
And ABN was then restrained by a court judgement issued by Justice Dolapo Akinsanya.
But,late Nzeribe and his group,two days before the election,approached a high court in Abuja headed by Justice Bassey Ikpeme, which granted them an order lifting the restraining restraint.
The rest they say is history because the June June 1993 election that is believed to have been won by Moshood K.O Abiola of blessed memory degenerated into a debacle that has had a reverberating and highly consequential effect on our country some thirty (30) years ago.
Do we have a copy cat scenario of the events that happened to 1993 general elections in our hands ?
Now,there are two significant take aways from the ongoing saga in the national security,intelligence and judicial space.
The first is that the DSS went to court to seek legal backing for its intention to arrest Emefiele.That is very professional as it reflects a marked departure from the past when that Standard Operating Procedure, SOP was not followed.
The recent past experience with our security agencies is that more often than not,they effect arrests without first of all obtaining court order,as they should.
Secondly,unlike Justice Bassey Ikpeme who seemingly did not really care about the broader implications of his action of lifting a restraining order by another court,(in what some have referred to as midnight judgement) in contrast,Justice John Tsoho, demurred from granting an exparte motion to arrest Emefiele,CBN governor. And on 29 December last year,Justice M.A Hassan restrained all the security agencies in the country from arresting or detaining the CBN governor, just as on 4 January this year,the same judge also issued a similar order restraining any law enforcement agency from arresting and detaining,INEC chairman,Yakubu.
Those actions from the bench are evidence that integrity,which seemed to have taken flight in the recent past, appear to be returning to the temple of justice in Nigeria.
So far, the order of the court has been respected with regards to INEC chairman, but it was not clear if the same respect would apply to CBN governor’s case until the SSS released a media statement on Monday 16 February which has left no one in doubt about the fact that Emefiele has regained his freedom.
In the heat of the Imbloglio in December,Edward Adamu,a Deputy Governor of CBN had told the parliament that Emefiele was under the weather,and it had also been mentioned that he had been on his annual leave.
Whatever the case may be,it was critically important that the presidency that is CBN governor’s employer provided Nigerians with information about his whereabouts.
That is because it can not be taken fore-granted that government can not guarantee the safety of its employee, particularly,the one who holds the keys to the national vault.
Responsively,the storm appears to be over with Emefiele at his desk indicating that President Buhari has now asserted his authority in line with the dictum: the buck ends at the president’s desk.

Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
To continue with this conversation,pls visit www.magnum.ng

Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
To continue with this conversation,pls visit www.magnum.ng

To drive home the impact and import of an election polling exercise in our local Nigerian environment,l would like to implore readers to allow me use the allegory in the famous English literature book:Macbeth written by William Shakespeare which is a fable set in Elizabethan Age England (about 4 centuries ago) to illustrate the mindset of a cross section of Nigerians about the controversial ANAP/ Nol December 2022 pre-election polls result,recently released with a tsunami type effect on the polity.
And to give it a local texture,l would also like to rely on the anecdote of the three predictions of the witches in the famous Shakespeare play for illustration.
That is because in the manner that the ANAP/Nol election opinion polls result is predicting victory for Mr Peter Obi, the presidential standard bearer of the Labor party,LP, and he is basking in the glory,the three witches had also made predictions that the hero of the play ,Macbeth would become king ,which he believed and it led to his doom.
It is worth recalling that the three (3)witches made the following predictions (1)Macbeth will become Thane of Cawdor, that (2) Macbeth will become king thereafter, and that (3)though Banquo would never be king,his descendants will become kings.
To put things in context,at this juncture,l would like to crave the indulgence of readers to allow Carroll Khan,a
CERTIFIED E-NOTE EDUCATOR take us down memory lane through her review of the iconoclastic book: Macbeth,published in enotes.com (an educational website)to see how the effect of the witchcraft predictions may be analogous to the result of the Nigerian pre-elections polls conducted by ANAP/NOI.
And it goes thus:
“The first three predictions of the witches can be found in act 1, scene 3 of the play when Macbeth and Banquo are traveling across the heath. The three witches suddenly appear and offer Macbeth and Banquo seemingly favorable prophecies.
She narrates further that “The witches give Macbeth two predictions by addressing him as the Thane of Cawdor and future King of Scotland. The witches then address Banquo and offer him a prophecy that says his descendants will be kings,even though he will never attain the throne.At the moment,Macbeth is only the Thane of Glamis and wonders how he will become the Thane of Cawdor and future king. Shortly after the witches disappear, King Duncan’s messengers arrive and confirm one of the witches’ prophecies by informing Macbeth that he has been given the title Thane of Cawdor.
Continuing with the narrative,she noted that “Later in the play, Macbeth visits the witches in act 4,scene 1,and they proceed to give him three more prophecies.The first witch tells Macbeth to “Beware of Macduff.” The second witch tells Macbeth to be bold and resolute because nobody born from a woman will harm him.The third witch encourages Macbeth to be “lion-mettled” because he will never be vanquished until “Great Birnam Wood to high Dunsinane Hill Shall come against him.” Two of the three prophecies manipulate Macbeth into acting rash and overconfident.
And she concluded by pointing out that “The witches play on Macbeth’s pride and he becomes a victim of his own hubris. Macbeth eventually discovers that he was fooled by the prophecies when Macduff says that he was “Untimely ripped” from his mother’s womb and thus defeats Macbeth.”
It is amazing how art can mimic life as
l am having a premonition that a similar scenario to the one in the Macbeth play may be unfolding in real life situation in Nigeria.
With the latest pre-election opinion polls released last December ascribing a whopping 23% of the number of people polled to Obi,compared to the 13% awarded Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinunu,BAT and 10% allotted Wazirin Atiku Abubakar,AA and 2% assigned Dr Musa Kwakwanso,Mr Obi must have by now acquiesced with the notion that he is head and shoulder ahead of all the other candidates.
But is the integrity of the pre-opinion poll unassailable? The straight answer is no.
And that is simply because a plethora of pundits have already averred that it is a product of voodoo polling as they are insisting that the polling exercise fell short of meeting the exacting scientific processes required for such a critical national action which has weighty consequences to pass the integrity test.
In light of the evidence that only telephone polling methodology was applied by ANAP/Nol pollsters,which is defective,since the failure to deploy other opinion polling tools makes the process incomplete,experts have been compelled to call to question,the integrity of the polls .
That not withstanding,Mr Obi and LP that the warped opinion polls favor,have taken the result to heart and basking in its euphoria.
Hence,I am perceiving a similarity in the Macbeth fable to the current situation in Nigeria because the false positive opinion polls may be giving LP presidential flag bearer the false hope that he would clinch the presidency of Nigeria.
It is a feeling that psychologists refer to as Dutch courage.
The purpose of this intervention is therefore to encourage the LP Presidential candidate,Mr Obi not to succumb to the allure of self aggrandizement on account of the flawed ANAP/ Nol opinion poll result.
Should he discountenance my honest and frank advise,he faces the risk of being disappointed in the way that Macbeth was deceived by the three witches predictions into thinking that he was invincible,as such he can not get defeated or be killed by any man born of a woman.
On the surface,the prediction appeared to be truly unassailable.
But he got killed by Macduff who (unbeknown to Macbeth)was actually not born of a woman,as the witches had predicted,because he was delivered by caesarean section,hence it turned out that Macbeth was tricked by the witches into believing that a man such as Macduff did not exist.
My point is that a false sense of victory in the 2023 presidential contest via double speak,as the ANAP/Nol poll seem to have done to Mr Obi is dangerous,particularly if the candidate fails to be victorious after the 25 February election result is announced.
Arising from the above,I am concerned that acute feelings of disappointment may cause him and the party followers severe anxiety that could trigger the type of violent reaction witnessed two (2) years ago in the United States of America,USA when on 6 January 2021 after Mr Joe Biden, was declared the winner of the presidential contest over then incumbent president,Mr Donald Trump,and he became the president-elect.But as the result was going through official confirmation by the congress in Capitol Hill which is the seat of the US Congress,insurrectionists struck.
Unprecedentedly,the mob comprising of disappointed and enraged Trump supporters, believing that victory was stolen from their candidate,invaded the hallowed chambers of the Capitol with the intention to hang the vice President Mike Pence who is the head of the senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives,Mrs Nancy Pelosi,for certifying Mr Joe Biden’s election victory as the president of the US.
On January 8,2023( last Sunday) which is barely two days and two years after democracy got a stab in the heart in the US on 6 January,2021 when the Capitol was invaded in what some have tagged a violent right wing insurrection against democracy; in Brazil,a South American neighbor of the US has also suffered a deadly blow to democracy,similar to the one inflicted by election deniers in the world’s number one democracy,USA.
The Brazilian mobs that were denying Mr Luiz Lula Da Silva’s victory over then incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro did not stop at wreaking havoc on the house of parliament,but they extended their rage to the presidential mansion and the Supreme Court premises a week after Da Silva was sworn in on 1st day of January this year.
Considering the false hope and sense of victory that the two ANAP/ Nol election opinion polls have given the Obi-dients-the very impassioned,highly reactive and devoted followers of Peter Obi and LP: would presidential election results that do not give victory to their candidate not trigger mayhem similar to the unfortunate incidents on 6 January 2021 in the US and repeated in Brazil on 8 January 2023 ?
In making the observations above and by drawing parallels between the evolving situation in Nigeria and the unfortunate incidents in the US and Brazil,I am guided by the dictum: to be forewarned is to be forearmed.
That is simply because the world is a global village wherein what happens in one part can easily echo or be mimicked in other parts of the globe,no matter how far flung they are geographically.
And it is in my position as a democracy advocate and for the purpose of shedding more light on the controversial pre-election opinion poll with the expectation that a fresh perspective from a more practical prism would offer further clarity; that l am adding my voice to the wave of opinions on the highly controversial polls result.
Although,a plethora of pundits have already averred that the election pre opinion poll under reference is a product of voodoo polling by emphasizing that the exercise was short of meeting the exacting scientific standards,ANAP/NOI team
deserve commendation for introducing and sustaining an intrinsic aspect of the democratic process that has helped to keep government of the people, by the people and for the people afloat,since the return of multi party democracy in Nigeria in 1999.
Nevertheless,it needs to do better by aggregating all the criticisms,analyzing and then synthesizing them with a view to filling in the identified gaps in the research methods in order to produce an improved,more objective and robust results that would stand the scrutiny of both experts and the public in general or alike.
In using an allegory of witchcraft prediction which most of us are familiar with,as we are all living in African society where it is an existential reality,l am hoping that the analogy would help simplify for better understanding of average Nigerians the reason the ANAP/Nol opinion poll is discredited and should not he relied upon.
Moreover,in my reckoning,there are hardly any educated Nigerian up to secondary school level that did not read the English literature book: Macbeth.
That is because it is a popular text book in secondary school curriculum for students of literature studies in the past several decades.
In relating the fictional narrative in the book-Macbeth to the two (2) controversial election opinion polls conducted by ANAP/Nol predicting victory for Mr Peter Obi,it is worth pointing out that there are significant factors in the results that have given them the coloration of being false positive and basically tending towards being more like witchcraft predictions than scientifically derived predictions that sampling opinions of potential voters in an election exercise.
The reasons are: number one (1).
The survey or poll was conducted only via phone,(which is shallow) and it is a space where Obi-dients (passionate supporters of Peter Obi) dominate.And that implies that the outcome of the polling exercise would be susceptible to manipulation by the social media savvy Peter-Obi-for-president devotees that are driven by #Endsars youth mobilization aficionados.
Being aware of how our youth influence the outcome of the television reality show:’Big Brother’,one can see their imprint in the outcome of the polls conducted by NOI that were commissioned by ANAP Foundation and which have consistently been in favor of the LP Presidential flag bearer.
There is justifiable suspicion that the so called Gen-Z behind the Peter Obi movement might have easily transformed into cyber trolls hell bent on disrupting or distorting online activities by morphing into multiple personalities and genders as well as pretending to belong to assortment of demographies,including presenting themselves as being in far flung locations nationwide.
After assuming all the identities highlighted above,they can be responding to polls conducted by telephone with fake telephone numbers and personalities,while they are in one location and most likely seating in front of lap tops where computer algorithms are doing the work of passing off as ‘multiple human beings’ in fake locations across Nigeria.
Is that not why,as a precautionary measure towards ensuring that some online interactions are with humans,some search engines sometimes display some odd words play or unusual picture play in a sort of puzzle which a user is required to solve to confirm that he or she is human before being allowed to proceed with the intended action?
The number two(2) reason why opinion poll by ANAP/NOI result is questionable is :
Opinion polling,particularly with respect to politics is relatively new in our political environment.
That means that it has not been practiced long enough to be able to capture the peculiarities and idiosyncrasies that are embedded in our culture which the normal polling template may fail to identify.
Take for instance,an activity as basic and rudimentary like business survey or market research.
When the telephone service providers like Econet (now Airtel) and MTN were planning to introduce their service to Nigeria,the Zimbabwean and South African firms commissioned specialized organizations to render the service.
Owing to the peculiar nature of Nigerian business environment and the people,the market demand for the service was underestimated.
It was not until the two pioneer GSM telcos -Econet and MTN-commenced operations in 2001,did they realize that demand was much higher in many folds than their initial projections.
With the realization,they had to start scaling up their capacity to cope with the unanticipated burgeoning market size.
So the tendency for social scientists not to fully capture the complete indices of the socioeconomic and political dynamics of Nigerian society has always been present.
As such it is not such an anomaly that the ANAP/NOI poll would be fraught with a similar handicap to what the telecoms firms earlier highlighted faced in terms of accuracy of results of market surveys carried out on their behalf when they wanted to enter Nigerian market.
In light of the vulnerability highlighted above, with respect to risk no (1),did the NOl poll pollsters ensure that it was not one person or group of persons huddled up in what could have been a sophisticated call center system mimicking the voice of a thousand different people that were or was responding to their telephone enquiries?
And regarding risk no two (2),was adequate provision for margin of error factored into the report in such a way that it would be clear to the consumers that the result has a huge margin of error, particularly because instead of the deployment of a whole gamut of the tools required to do a thorough job,calling by telephone was the only tool applied,which implies that the final outcome would be flawed and in line with the dictum: garbage in,garbage out?
Therein lies the dilemma and the reason the result of the first and second ANAP/NOl election opinion polls are appearing to be like witchcraft predictions to most Nigerians,perhaps except Peter Obi and LP supporters that the outcomes favor.
To be fair to those who conducted the exercise,the report actually admitted that voter intimidation and suppression are present and real danger to our nascent political system .
And they were identified as significant factors in lagos,where area boys or thugs are reportedly forcefully preventing non-indigenes from collecting their Permanent Voters Cards,PVCs; in the north east where nihilistic activities of religious insurgents/terrorists have kept the electorate in Internally Displaced Persons,IDP Camps; and in the south east where activities of the so called Unknown Gunmen,who are passing off as part of the separatist movement are compelling residents to stay at home for their own safety.
As consequential as the highlighted obstacles are,the influence of the aforementioned nefarious ambassadors on the result of the opinion poll was not sufficiently highlighted or emphasized.
As such the malaise is not made obvious that owing to the identified issues of voter intimidation and voter suppression, amongst other short comings,the polls are fundamentally defective.
And which is a good reason why the result should be taken with a pinch of salt.
In other words,a Caveat Emptor or Buyer-Beware tag should have been boldly put on the last December opinion polls result,so that the public would not (to use the analogy of fishing) swallow it hook-line-and -sinker.
Perhaps,because taking that altruistic option of being upfront with the defective factors intrinsic in the result may take away the thunder,the conductors of the poll decided to adopt the option of speaking in parables which is the language of mystics,hence the result of the ANAP/Nol 2023 general elections poll is fittingly being referred to as being akin to witchcraft predictions.
In lagos state for instance,potential voters for the PDP and NNPP and LP candidates would not identify as such owing to legitimate fears that APC faithfuls who sometimes present as thugs or goons may unleash terror on them.
Recently,someone shared with me how he drove himself in a car to Idi-Araba area of lagos where he met with some people of northern stock who live and ply their trade there.He posed the question of who they would like to vote for to some of them and they all chorused APC.But when he spoke to them in the language Indigenous to them,they took him into confidence and confessed that they were concerned about the safety of their lives and business hence they lied about their preferred candidate.
The same acts of voter’s intimidation and suppression can be said to be happening within market places by the union leaders as well as in road transportation places and the unions across lagos.
The anti democracy practice does not apply to lagos alone.
It can be extrapolated across the country in different geographic locations and languages as well as across cultures,simply because the demon of voter intimidation and suppression have taken hold in our polity-from lagos to Owerri,and Maiduguri to Port Harcourt, Enugu as well as kano and Makurdi, Sokoto,and Onitsha amongst others.
That is perhaps a second unconscious negligence that might have tainted the outcome of the latest poll putting Mr Obi head and shoulders above his co-contenders for the 2023 presidency contest.
One good old way of conducting consumer survey (not election opinion poll) is by relying on utility bills issued by electricity,water or telephone services providers to consumers.
l can recall how a South African firm commissioned to conduct a survey for me when l was putting together the paper work for the proposed Asaba Airport and Convention City was relying on water service bills of the inhabitants of the catchment area for the survey to determine the number of potential consumers and households in the area of interest.I had to bring to the attention of the survey conductor that such statistics would be unreliable.He asked about the option of electricity and telephone bills and l enlightened him further that in Nigeria such data are unreliable because we really do not enjoy such services reliably and we consequently hardly subscribe or pay for them as it is done in South Africa and other climes where provision of public utilities are organized.
Were it not that l was hands-on enough to guide the conductors of the survey,a misleading research result would have been prepared and passed to me.
But thanks to my vigilance the misfortune or disaster was averted.
My point is that statistics or data do not lie per se.But how they are obtained and analyzed by human beings could mask the truth.
Which is why in my view,the wooly outcome of the December 2022 ANAP sponsored NOI opinion poll about the probably winners and losers in the 2023 general elections has only ended up giving the LP and it’s candidate false confidence also known as Dutch Courage.
While it is true that the false hope may be firing up Obi’s voting base,it must face the reality that it is not enough to enable him clinch the presidency in 2023.
Already,the handicap of LP being bereft of political structures which some of us have been harping on as being a requirement for the party and it’s candidates to have any chance of winning the presidential contest,has started manifesting. First,it was noted recently from the elections regulatory agency, INEC records that LP is fielding the least number of candidates amongst the four front line parties.Even way behind NNPP.
It means that whereas the traditional parties have surplus people jostling for the tickets,LP does not have enough people vying for the elective offices from its stable.
And the relatively short span of time during which the LP grew from obscurity to the fairy tale prominence is a strong factor for that handicap.
Secondly,it has further been revealed in unverified media reports that LP is also yet to send the list of its agents for over 90,000 polling units across the country with 94% from the north-west,north-east and north-central.
That implies that while LP may have more than enough supporters in the south,there appear to be a dearth of Obidients in the northern part of our country to work for Mr Obi and senator Datti Baba-Ahmed the LP vice presidential candidate.
It also validates the belief that the youth demography (Obi’s supporters base) which is put at a little more than half of the 93.5 million voters registered for the 2023 general elections, which is about 48 million,abound mainly in the south.
And given that the bulk of INEC registered voters reside in the northern parts of our country: north-west 22.6million,north-east 12.8 million and north-central 15.6 million,bringing the total number to roughly 51 million as registered voters in the north out of the 93.5 million registered nationwide; only an estimated 45 million is the total number of registered voters in the entire south. It is comprising of south-west 18.3 million,south-south 15.2 million and south-east 11.4 million.
That means that only less than half of the youth demography (48m) which is about half of the 93.5 million registered voters nationwide would be voting in the south. Assuming the whole half of 48 million (24m) youth vote for Obi ,which is impossible, it would still not be enough to usher him into Aso Rock Villa.
If the unverified claim that Mr Obi and LP are suffering the jeopardy of lack of volunteers or party faithfuls to monitor voting booths as earlier highlighted turns out to be real,then search no more for the jeopardy which had been predicted long ago as the Achilles heels for LP and it’s presidential standard bearer to occupy Aso Rock Villa seat of presidential power from 29,May this year.
It is surprising that Mr Obi’s response to the identified underlying jeopardy of LP is that Nigerians should vote out the parties with structures because it is their structure that has destroyed Nigeria. Something to that effect is credited to him in the media report during his campaign over the weekend in Ondo state.
If indeed he made that assertion,then the reality is setting in on him because the apparently unrealistic response,in my view conveys expression of frustration by Mr Obi-the erstwhile exponent of:Go-And -Verify which was his mantra at the early stage of his very remarkable and highly commendable run for the presidency that has seen him move from the rear to the front row in the way that Singapore moved from third world to first world in a record time and phenomenal manner.
In light of the circumstances above,it is worrying that the false hope fueled by the ANAP/Nol election opinion polls and other falsehoods being peddled in the social media via sexing up of videos and pictures to promote LP and it’s presidential candidates,the anxiety level of Obidients may be worsened.
And in the end,they may be devastated by a disappointing reality after 25 February election D-Day when the true result of the polls that have been forecasting victory for LP and its presidential candidate,turn out to be far from the anticipated positive outcome.
That being the case,our country may be facing a looming risk of having election deniers after the 25 February presidential and National Assembly elections,and 11 March governorship and state houses of assembly elections,if another poll is not conducted by ANAP/Nol or any other reliable election opinion polling organizations with all the gamut of tools required to be deployed in arriving at a more realistic,wholesome and holistic result that would be unassailable,be it Mr Peter Obi,Wazirin Atiku Abubakar or Asiwaju Bola Tinubu that is tipped to win.
One odd but striking thing is that the result of the ANAP/NOI poll that has engendered the massive furore in the political space,is by any standard of measure ephemeral and esoteric. As such it conjures or re-enacts the prophesies of the three witches in Macbeth,the earlier referenced famous English literature book written by a Scottish author in ancient Europe.
As we are all are well aware,witches are known for giving prophesies that appear to be unassailable to fleeting observers, but often found to be duplicitous when subjected to close scrutiny.
That is the sense that l get from the December ANAP/NOI election opinion poll.
Fortuitously,Nigerians are unlike Macbeth who was duped by the three (3) witches because he did not interrogate the witches predictions to see beyond the veneer. Otherwise he could have spotted the subterfuge.
On the contrary,Nigerians have subjected the ANAP/Nol predictions to rigorous integrity test.
And the national verdict is that the December 2022 election opinion poll result should be taken with a pinch of salt.
That means that we have refused to allow wool to be literally pulled over our eyes.
First witch:”When shall we meet again,in thunder ,lightning or in rain. Second witch-“When the hurly burly is done,when the battle is lost and won”
Third witch: That will be ere (before) the set of sun “
That is usually the chant of the witches whenever they are about to exit a scene after casting their horrific spell on their victims.
ANAP/Nol do not have to wait for the hurly burly to be done before it conducts another opinion poll prior to 25 February and 11 March election days.
In my assessment,our country may not survive the consequences of relying on the result of a wishy-washy election opinion poll on a critical elections process such as the forthcoming one.
If nothing else,there is a national consensus that forthcoming polls 25 February and 11 March can strengthen or ruin the success so far recorded in our nascent democracy that is about to clock twenty four (24) years back-to-back succession of political parties and smooth change of baton between presidents and political parties.
So,my prayer (some would say that a vote is a prayer point) is that the pollsters should make haste to give Nigerians,(who are waiting with baited breadth) an update,sooner than later.
In the interim,readers could take solace in the fact that the D-Day for the presidential election 25 February is more or less five (5) weeks away.
Even if ANAP/Nol is able to come up with a new and more reliable election opinion poll after deploying all the necessary tools that it had failed to apply in producing the current one with integrity issues,it is only when the real elections have been held and the numbers are tallied,that we all can certainly know the unvarnished truth about who lied about what with statistics and data.
In any case,based on my calculations,l am convinced that the PDP presidential standard bearer, Waziri Atiku Abubakar still holds the ace !
That is because amongst the front runners ,he is the most election battle tested.
The PDP presidential torch bearer already has an estimated twelve (12) million votes in his kitty,courtesy of his last contest for the Presidency against president Buhari in 2019.
Although the outcome of the election was not in his favor, he has a building block of 12m votes of which none of the candidates that are currently contesting for the office with him has and Buhari is not on the 2023 ballot.
That momentum is what would propel him to victory.
On the contrary, the last time the APC presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu contested for elective office was in 2003 when he sought and got re-elected as governor of lagos state.
Since 2007, he has been ‘crowning’ successive governors of lagos state from Babatunde Fashola who succeeded him to immediate past governor Akinwunmi Ambode and current governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu,but he has not personally been on the ballot since about twenty (20) years ago.
Tinubu might have been critical to Buhari’s emergence as president in 2015,but the fact that his name has not been on the ballot for two about (2) decades is a minus.
Mr Peter Obi,the LP Presidential standard bearer last had his name directly on the ballot for his re -election contest as Anambra state governor in 2007 which is about sixteen (16) years ago.
Subsequently,he has been involved in the election of his successor, Willie Obiano and twice unsuccessfully sponsored Obaze Oseloka in 2018 against Obiano and Val Ozigbo in 2022 against current Anambra state governor,professor Chukwuma Soludo.
In 2019, he was the running mate to Wazirin Atiku Abubakar in the contest against President Buhari.
He was merely a vice presidential candidate and we all know why they are referred to as spare tyres that are never used.
So he does not really enjoy the advantage of being battle ready.
As for NNPP’s presidential candidate,Dr Musa Kwakwanso, we all know that right now ,he is just fulfilling all righteousness because NNPP is a party of the future.
And to sustain the party until another election circle,l can not fathom why the party that is a potential beautiful bride and was engaged in marriage negotiations with Peter Obi and LP has remained on the shelve.
A coalition or partnership with a party that wins would help keep the party afloat.
Now, it is imperative that l state hear and now that this analysis is written without prejudice or malice to any party or any candidate.
It is an effort made with the best interest of Nigerians who need to be aided to enable them easily navigate through all the complex and intricate issues concerning the 2023 general elections which is a duty that l am dispatching with all sense of patriotism.

Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
To continue with this conversation,pls visit www.magnum.ng

The world is always changing, but some changes are more important than others. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely be remembered as the start of a new era in geoeconomics. In response to the war, the West launched sanctions against Russia, escalating the economic war the Kremlin began when it blocked Ukraine from trading with the world through its ports. Moscow answered by drastically reducing natural gas exports to Europe. The uncertainty and tit-for-tat measures kicked off an energy crisis. And the war renewed focus on the growing divide between the West and a nascent revisionist bloc led by China and Russia. It is difficult to see a path back to the status quo ante bellum, but several major trends that will define the next decade have become clear.

For years before COVID-19, China, Russia, Iran and North Korea challenged the economic, financial, security and/or geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after World War II. The era of relentless globalization had started to slow or even reverse. The pandemic kicked things into overdrive, accelerating reshoring and so-called friendshoring and depriving developing economies of foreign investment.

The war in Ukraine and its economic aftereffects are squeezing developing countries even more. In 2022, most of them put off making a choice between the West and Russia, hoping for a resolution to the conflict that would ease their economic pain. A case in point are East European countries, which, depends on Russian energy and other commodities to sustain their economies and thus are wary of breaking ties with Moscow. As such, they sought to slow the progression of Western sanctions against Russia. Others have avoided adopting anti-Russia sanctions altogether.

For Europe, the conflict between Russia and the West has shaken public and corporate confidence about the near future and made it nearly impossible to do business with Russian entities. Elsewhere, businesses expend time and resources checking whether their operations will incur sanctions, looking for alternatives whenever possible. The Black Sea is a de facto war zone, which has the upside of encouraging investment in overland infrastructure and the downside of making maritime trade more expensive.

As important as developments in Europe are, China and its internal stability may be the more consequential economic challenge in 2023. Facing growing protests late in the year, the Chinese government abandoned its zero-COVID policy with no apparent plan B. Official data is sparse and unreliable, and local and regional governments have been put in charge of managing the situation. It is unclear whether this will become a headache for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, especially since it falls between the start of the political transition in November and its end in March, when most officials will have their new posts confirmed. Meanwhile, the United States is escalating its trade war with China.

The result is likely to be a fragile economic recovery for China in 2023. The enduring weakness of the real estate sector has outweighed positive impulses in other economic areas, and fear of a financial crisis is weighing on private investment. Increasing youth unemployment adds a dangerous element to the mix. Beijing has taken steps recently to solve the real estate sector’s liquidity crisis, but it needs political stability for the measures to be effective.

This is not good news for the global economy. As much as the West would like to be shielded from events in China, Europe and the U.S. still depend on Chinese manufacturing of important inputs. Chinese lockdowns created kinks in supply chains, and the country’s political and economic instability could prolong them. Consumption and industrial activity in the U.S. and Europe are already in retreat, and there’s no end in sight to the energy crisis. A crisis in China would only make things worse.

In addition to the global economic slowdown, for the first time since the 1970s the world is simultaneously facing high inflation. The drivers of this bout of inflation include excessively loose monetary and fiscal policies that were kept in place for too long, the restructuring of global trade caused by the pandemic, and the sharp spike in the cost of energy, industrial metals, fertilizers and food as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Angered by the unequal distribution of the gains of globalization, voters demanded more government support for workers and those left behind. However well-intentioned, such policies risk an inflationary spiral as wages and prices struggle to keep pace with one another. Rising protectionism also restricts trade and impedes the movement of capital, limiting improvements on the supply side.

To the extent that the energy crisis is causing high inflation, investment in renewables will mitigate inflationary pressure. Renewable capacity will take time to develop, however, and in the meantime, there is underinvestment in fossil fuel capacity. The latter will take priority. Moreover, the green transition will require the development of new supply chains for certain metals and will increase the cost of energy generally, creating what’s been termed “greenflation.”

This coincides with a rapidly aging population not only in developed countries but also in China and some other emerging economies. Young people tend to produce more, while older people spend their savings and consume more services. And due to the market uncertainty caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, young people are producing less and reluctant to invest, which translates into a general economic slowdown. Therefore, just as the global economy will continue fragmenting into 2023, so will inflation persist.

The war in Ukraine has caused disruption also in the tech industry. While most sectors have been impacted by declining investment and the challenging state of affairs overall, tech appears to be the hardest hit. Twitter, for example, has cut its workforce by 50 percent, and Facebook parent company Meta is letting go of 11,000, about 13 percent, of its employees. Amazon reportedly cut 10,000 jobs, representing about 1 percent of its global workforce. Meanwhile, FTX, the second-largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world, recently valued at $32 billion, has imploded. The full fallout of its collapse is still unclear, but other crypto firms have already felt the effects.

Gone are the days of the early 2000s, when global markets were relatively stable and supply chains built on cheap labour were reliable. In those times, companies increasingly depended on the internet to grow their business, and tech firms benefited from low interest rates. But the factors that helped propel the fast growth of the early 2000s are today progressively volatile, as the global economy hobbles through the early stages of restructuring.

Like companies in other sectors, many tech businesses won’t recover, while others will adapt and bounce back slowly. New opportunities will arise. The restructuring of manufacturing and supply chains will require technology, and automation will increase, especially as the population ages. More important, governments will likely seize the opportunity to steer the tech industry in specific directions. There has been much talk about the role of social media in politics and in shaping policy, and as a result, lawmakers have tried to regulate things like privacy and competition as they relate to social media platforms. Cybersecurity is also an increasingly concerning issue for governments worldwide, and will likely continue to be as the sophistication of cyberattacks increases. Governments will therefore be pushed to become more assertive in regulating tech beyond its military applications.

The major trends in geoeconomics for 2023 and beyond are interconnected. The challenges they pose will require a systematic, coherent approach, but the political leadership in countries around the world is struggling to keep up. The speed of the change requires a different toolset than governments are used to, leaving them trying, and sometimes failing, to adapt to new realities. Cooperation is increasingly difficult, but it has actually grown stronger in some limited areas, like the West’s economic war against Russia following the Ukraine invasion.

Thus, even as deglobalization gains momentum, interdependency isn’t going away completely. Restructuring itself will be a global process. There’s just no avoiding the fact that the world today is interconnected in ways never seen before. Different perspectives will need to be reconciled, and people’s place in society beyond their economic value as consumers and political value as voters will have to be acknowledged. Human behavior, and therefore state behavior, is driven by everything from politics and economics to culture and psychology and even technology. This complexity will drive the challenges, and potential solutions, of tomorrow.

Make no mistake, the 2023 polls is not just about Peter Obi. He just happened to be the symbol of the struggle, having positioned himself in readiness for a time like this.
Yes, it’s the turn of the SE by equity, but I am convinced that a lot of his supporters would’ve avoided the movement if Rochas Okorocha or OUK had emerged as the candidate from the SE region.

The 2023 election is very critical to the future of the country, which is currently facing an existential threat to its survival. This election is not even about BAT or Atiku, they happen to be inevitable products of the corrupt system, and from here on it can only get far worse rather than better for Nigeria if allowed to fester. The obidients are fighting to change this political system which has made it possible for such characters with glaring character and integrity baggages to emerge, and should we fail it in this pursuit, the result will only embolden similar characters to prepare themselves to make inroads into becoming our political reality for the foreseeable future. A system of impunity that makes it possible to reward mediocrity, where a sitting governor can corner the wealth of the state at will subject to his burgeoning whims and caprices, where a president can appoint his in laws and family members to sensitive positions like the MINT, where criminals can aspire to hold public offices despite obvious evidence of their past criminal activities.
A system where anyone who can amass wealth from whatever and wherever can easily buy greedy delegates as a pathway to hold public office of trust.
Once again I repeat, should we fail to change this system, then we will be looking at a future where the likes of Hush puppies, Evans and the MC Oluomo of this country will be bold to lay claim on public trust, formulate policies for and on behalf of all of us, and in doing so chase away the remnants of decency, and with it people of impeccable character, integrity and capability from our politics, as they can’t afford to mingle in that space.
This is what the election is about, and not the people involved now. It’s a battle for the soul of the country, and make no mistake impunity will fight back to preserve the system, those who profit from the chaos, many of whom have made a conscious decision to secure themselves and families outside Nigeria, as they also anticipate the eventual implosion of the system because like us, they know the system cannot survive this way for too long. So far revenues are not even enough to fund the budget, yet there are those still padding the waste filled budget, so we are doomed to more borrowing largely for consumption, misplaced priorities and white elephant projects, bogus spendings mainly to be frittered away into private pockets. This is why we need to push that RESET button, because we believe Nigeria can be great, we have the brains, the resources and the mind-power to build a better future for the country if only we can do away with these vested interests, who are bent on shortchanging the system for their own personal gains. We have to change the values and principles that surround governance, public and personal lifestyle choices. Public office should never be seen as a means to amass wealth and power, develop cronies and hangers on with the sole aim to hold on to power and control public resources.
Public service should be seen rather as a rare opportunity to make a difference, make a mark and name and to build a lasting legacy that will outlive you long after you’re gone. We must put our best foot forward this time around.
Indeed a new Nigeria is POssible.