DAILY NIGERIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (NFEM) RATES (₦/US$)
Moving Average = 1,435.4806 (NFEM)
Previous Average = 1,452.0400
Change = +1.14%
Forex Analysis
The FX market had an erratic week, with wild swings, and this was particularly so in the parallel (black) market leading the official and parallel markets to diverge by as much as 45-50 naira per dollar at some point in the week. This was a reversal of what obtained last week, with the naira experiencing constant appreciation throughout the week, and the spread between the official and parallel rates narrowing. This week’s diverging spread signals renewed FX demand particularly in the black market causing the rate to diverge from the official rate.
Possible sources of this renewed FX demand include foreign tuition fees being paid by Nigerian parents. There is a seasonal spike in November because of the way the international academic calendar is structured, particularly in the UK, Canada and parts of continental Europe. School fees payments are usually split into 2 or 3 installments and the second installment often falls due in November. Visa and enrollment deadlines provide added pressure as students finalize late admissions or visa approvals in October, triggering tuition payments in November. Some institutions in Canada and the UK often have November deadlines for winter term registration or housing fees. These payments are bundled with tuition, increasing FX demand.
Other sources of FX demand include holiday travel and paying for business imports. These pressures, in addition to the foreign tuition issue discussed previously, have strained informal FX supply, contributing to rate instability.
Daily Crude Oil Prices
Moving Average = $64.80
Previous Average = $64.66
Change = +0.2165%
Crude Oil Analysis
Our Brent crude moving average rose marginally, improving by 0.2165%. This was likely due to easing of global geopolitical tensions like the limited trade agreement signed by the US and China. The US is reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 57% to 47%, while China will resume purchase of US soybeans and maintain exports of rare earth metals. This deal calmed financial markets and supported oil prices by improving global demand sentiment.
Also improving prices is the fact that restrained OPEC+ output has offset a reported 5.202 million-barrel surge in crude inventories that the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Nov 5th. Furthermore, OPEC+ signaled a pause in production hikes for early 2026, despite a small increase planned for December.
This modest price does not signal a reversal in the broader decline of oil prices that we have been reporting for the past month or so. Rather, it should be seen as a temporary stabilization or pause in a longer-term decline.
NGX Top 10 Gainers for the week closing 7th Nov 2025
NGX Top 10 Losers for the week closing 7th Nov 2025
Stock Market Index Activity for the week closing 7th Nov 2025
Stock Market Index Analysis
Twenty (20) equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than twenty-nine (29) equities in the previous week. Seventy-five (75) equities depreciated in price, higher than seventy (70) equities in the previous week, while fifty-one (51) equities remained unchanged, higher than forty-seven (47) recorded in the previous week.
The stock market this week saw something of a bloodbath with the All-Share Index (ASI) dropping a whopping 3% this week. This comes after a nearly 1% drop last week. What started as customary profit-taking 2 weeks earlier after the ASI had surged 4.48% has turned to full-blown carnage.
The good news is, if you can call it that, is that there is a method to the carnage. The carnage seems to be a case of strategic repositioning on the part of investors as opposed to whole-sale abandonment of the market. Key drivers of the repositioning include geopolitical tensions, looming tax policy changes and FX volatility.
Trump’s threat of military action against Nigeria seems to have riled the stock market, and as a result investors are moving to safer assets like fixed income securities (local fund managers), cash, and consumer staples.
The proposed capital gains tax, set to take off in 2026, threatens to impose a 25% tax on any gains above 150 million naira. This has caused fund managers to lock in any unrealized gains now under the current tax regime, rather than surrender 25% to the government come January.
The FX volatility we have seen in the recent weeks is adding its own effect by creating macroeconomic uncertainty which is leading to increasing investor indecision and caution.
All of the above are threatening to combine to make November the worst trading month this year.
Daily Bitcoin Prices
Moving Average = $106,555.19
Previous Average = $112,215.87
Change = -5.0445%
Bitcoin Analysis
It seems like last week’s rebound in bitcoin prices was a false dawn, as our moving average fell by a whopping 5% this week. Bitcoin veterans have taken to calling last month “Red October”, as it was first negative October in six years, ending a historically bullish month on a sour note.
A sharp sell-off occurred on Nov 3rd, triggering over $1.16 billion in long liquidations. This event crushed short-term optimism and accelerated a downward move that had already been set in motion earlier in the week. This sell-off was largely driven by macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from conflicting policies of the Federal Reserve, which created uncertainty in the financial markets in general, leading investors to shun risky markets like cryptocurrencies.
Also, many traders had entered highly leveraged long positions expecting a rebound after October’s decline. When prices reversed, these positions were forcibly closed, resulting in $1.16 billion in liquidations across the major cryptocurrencies.
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