DAILY NIGERIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (NFEM) RATES (₦/US$)
Moving Average = 1,388.9318 (NFEM)
Previous Average = 1373.7410
Change = -1.058%
Forex Analysis
Our FX moving average fell yet again, the 3rd week in a row. It was a rather volatile week for the naira, which by Mar 9th had spiked above ₦1,400/$ due to corporate demand, before easing back toward ₦1,376/$ as CBN interventions and dealer supply stabilized rates.
The parallel market remained consistently weaker than the official window, widening the gap to about ₦50–70 per dollar. Traders cited strong retail and import demand, with limited dollar supply from informal channels.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves remained at a 13‑year peak, cushioning volatility but not fully offsetting parallel market pressures.
Brent crude’s surge above $100/bbl improved Nigeria’s fiscal outlook, but FX inflows had not yet materialized, limiting immediate naira support.
Daily Crude Oil Prices
Moving Average = $89.13
Previous Average = $77.58
Change = +14.8879%
Crude Oil Analysis
Our Brent crude moving average rose by a whopping 15%. This is due in no small measure to escalating tensions in the Middle East between the US/Israel and Iran, as air strikes continue to disrupt production, while the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil tankers, remains closed.
OPEC+ seems determined to take advantage of the situation. It maintained strict quotas, refusing to raise output despite rising demand. This amplified the upward pressure on prices.
Meanwhile, Asian refiners (China, India) continued strong crude purchases, reinforcing physical demand.
NGX Top 10 Gainers for the week closing 13th Mar 2026
Stock Market Index Activity for the week closing 13th Mar 2026
Stock Market Index Analysis
Thirty-four (34) equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than forty-four (44) equities in the previous week. Sixty-one (61) equities depreciated in price, higher than fifty-eight (58) equities in the previous week, while fifty-three (53) equities remained unchanged, higher than forty-six (46) recorded in the previous week. This reflected a weaker market breadth compared to the prior week. This shift pointed to cautious investor sentiment despite strong oil prices and FX market interventions.
Energy and cement stocks led the rally, supported by oil prices and infrastructure demand. Insurance and industrials dragged the market lower, reflecting profit‑taking and cost pressures.
Overall, the market was cautious and selective, with investors balancing optimism from oil revenues against FX and inflation risks.
Fixed-Income Analysis
This week, Nigerian government securities reflected the interplay of strong oil prices, FX market pressures, and CBN’s liquidity management.
Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) auctions saw strong subscription, especially in short‑tenor bills. Marginal rates edged higher, around 17–18%, as investors demanded compensation for inflation and FX risk. NTB maturities injected naira liquidity, which the CBN later sterilized through OMO and CBN bills.
In FGN Bonds, no major new issuance during the week, but secondary trading was active. Long‑tenor bonds (10–20 years) remained relatively stable around 18–19%, supported by pension funds and institutional demand. The oil price rally improved fiscal outlook, encouraging confidence in sovereign debt sustainability.
CBN issued OMO bills aggressively to mop up excess liquidity from coupon payments and NTB maturities. Yields stayed elevated in the 20–22% range, designed to attract foreign portfolio inflows and reduce naira liquidity. The bills issued helped sterilize inflows but did not fully offset parallel market FX pressures.
CBN bills complemented OMO bills as another liquidity management tool. Yields remained at around 21–23%, reflecting inflation expectations and FX market risks.
Daily Bitcoin Prices
Moving Average = $68,629.43
Previous Average = $68,766
Change = -0.1986%
Bitcoin Analysis
Our Bitcoin average fell slightly, by about 0.2%. This week’s activity was shaped by technical consolidation, cautious investor sentiment, and global macro signals.
Traders who bought during the late‑February breakout above $68k took profits, leading to mild weekend weakness. Oil markets surged on U.S.–Iran tensions, but Bitcoin’s safe‑haven bid was muted, as investors prioritized commodities.
ETF inflows remained steady, but not aggressive enough to push Bitcoin higher. Weekend trading volumes were thinner, amplifying small sell‑offs.
Bitcoin hovered around the $68k pivot, with resistance near $70k and support around $66k. The sideways action reflected a market catching its breath after February’s rally.
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